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Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017

Westlake Legal Group Screen-Shot-2019-11-17-at-21.08.02 Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017 YouGov The North south SNP Scunthorpe Rother Valley Polling police Philip Larkin Peterborough Opinion Pollster Opinion Polls NHS New Labour Midlands Liberal Democrats Law and order Labour immigration Highlights Great Grimsby General Election Fiona Onasanya MP Don Valley Daniel Finkelstein Culture crime Conservatives Columnists Caroline Flint MP Campaigning Brexit Alasdair Rae

Neil O’Brien is MP for Harborough.

The Midlands sky was November grey, and there was the smell of a coal fire from somewhere. I was out delivering leaflets in a council estate in my constituency. Moments after popping one through the door of a bungalow, I heard a door being flung wide open behind me.

A large and angry man appeared. “You can have that back” he said, thrusting the leaflet into my hands. And with that, he swung back into the house and the door thumped shut.

I went on my way. But moments later, I heard the door swing open again. It was the big guy again, and I braced myself for a free and frank exchange of views.

But this time he was in a more sunny mood.

“Sorry. I thought you were Labour,” he said. “Are you the Conservatives? Can I have another one of those?” He told me he was going to vote for us.

It gave me a little taste of what it’s like to be a candidate today for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.I don’t know what it is about life-long terrorist suck-up Jeremy Corbyn, or self-described Marxist John McDonnell, or police-hating Diane Abbott, or their two-faced approach on Brexit… but in many places where Labour might once have done well, they are now regarded with something approaching hatred.

There are still weeks to go till the election, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017.

The ideas we are putting forward are more popular. The campaign feels better run, including on line. People massively prefer Boris Johnson to Corbyn. The question is whether it is enough.

As Daniel Finkelstein has pointed out, we have to win outright, while others can win even if they lose. Why? Because we will never team up with the SNP – while Labour are already dangling another separation referendum to cosy up with the nationalists. The Liberal Democrats can form a remain alliance with Labour – but not us. If we are going to win, it means pushing deeper into Labour territory in the north, midlands and south west, while holding off Lib Dems in the south east and the SNP up north.

The signs are encouraging. One set of constituency polls this week showed us holding seats in London, while another national poll showed us ahead among working class voters by a margin of nearly two-to-one (YouGov, 11-12 Nov).

For someone who got involved in politics when we were in the relegation zone in the mid 1990s, this is heady stuff.
We’ve already come a long way. Alasdair Rae at Sheffield has a neat chart which ranks constituencies in England from the most deprived on the left, to the most affluent on the right.

In 2001, we had no seats in the poorest 30 per cent, and Labour had most of the middle third. [See chart at top of article.] By 2017, the blue tide had already flowed into some areas Labour used to dominate. I hope this time it will surge further. [See chart at bottom of article.]

As we expand, the centre of gravity of Conservative voters has shifted and the Prime Minister has been the fastest to catch the mood. My leaflets this year feature our pledges of 20,000 more police, £450 million for our local hospital and funding for our local schools going up 4.6 per cent per pupil next year. Other than the fact that we also pledge tougher sentences for criminals, controlled immigration and securing our exit from the EU, much of this is the space New Labour used to occupy.

Rumours in the papers say that our tax policy is also going to be squarely focused on helping those working hard on low incomes. I think that would be the right approach.

It’s funny what pops into your head as we pound the pavements in the autumn rain.

For some reason I’ve been thinking about Philip Larkin’s poem, The Whitsun Weddings, describing his sun-drenched train journey from Hull in the north, down through the industrial Midlands to London:

“We ran /
Behind the backs of houses, crossed a street /
Of blinding windscreens, smelt the fish-dock; thence /
The river’s level drifting breadth began, /
Where sky and Lincolnshire and water meet. /
All afternoon, through the tall heat that slept  /
    For miles inland, /
A slow and stopping curve southwards we kept.   /
Wide farms went by, short-shadowed cattle, and
Canals with floatings of industrial froth…”

I feel like we as a party are taking the same journey, but in reverse, with the Conservative tide flowing up through the midlands and north.

Today the route from Hull, which goes via Doncaster, would take you past plenty of Labour marginals. Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe across the Humber. Don Valley and Rother Valley in South Yorkshire. Down through Bassetlaw, where sitting Labour MP and fierce Corbyn critic, John Mann has just stood down, then past Lincoln to the east, and down to London through Peterborough, where we hope to replace jailed Labour MP Fiona Onasanya.

I feel like we have a strong leader, good campaign, we stand for the right things, and people are sick of the delay and dither.

But will it be enough. Will our campaign work this time?

It might just.

Time to get back out there.

Westlake Legal Group Screen-Shot-2019-11-17-at-21.08.55 Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017 YouGov The North south SNP Scunthorpe Rother Valley Polling police Philip Larkin Peterborough Opinion Pollster Opinion Polls NHS New Labour Midlands Liberal Democrats Law and order Labour immigration Highlights Great Grimsby General Election Fiona Onasanya MP Don Valley Daniel Finkelstein Culture crime Conservatives Columnists Caroline Flint MP Campaigning Brexit Alasdair Rae   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017

Westlake Legal Group Screen-Shot-2019-11-17-at-21.08.02 Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017 YouGov The North south SNP Scunthorpe Rother Valley Polling police Philip Larkin Peterborough Opinion Pollster Opinion Polls NHS New Labour Midlands Liberal Democrats Law and order Labour immigration Highlights Great Grimsby General Election Fiona Onasanya MP Don Valley Daniel Finkelstein Culture crime Conservatives Columnists Caroline Flint MP Campaigning Brexit Alasdair Rae

Neil O’Brien is MP for Harborough.

The Midlands sky was November grey, and there was the smell of a coal fire from somewhere. I was out delivering leaflets in a council estate in my constituency. Moments after popping one through the door of a bungalow, I heard a door being flung wide open behind me.

A large and angry man appeared. “You can have that back” he said, thrusting the leaflet into my hands. And with that, he swung back into the house and the door thumped shut.

I went on my way. But moments later, I heard the door swing open again. It was the big guy again, and I braced myself for a free and frank exchange of views.

But this time he was in a more sunny mood.

“Sorry. I thought you were Labour,” he said. “Are you the Conservatives? Can I have another one of those?” He told me he was going to vote for us.

It gave me a little taste of what it’s like to be a candidate today for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.I don’t know what it is about life-long terrorist suck-up Jeremy Corbyn, or self-described Marxist John McDonnell, or police-hating Diane Abbott, or their two-faced approach on Brexit… but in many places where Labour might once have done well, they are now regarded with something approaching hatred.

There are still weeks to go till the election, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017.

The ideas we are putting forward are more popular. The campaign feels better run, including on line. People massively prefer Boris Johnson to Corbyn. The question is whether it is enough.

As Daniel Finkelstein has pointed out, we have to win outright, while others can win even if they lose. Why? Because we will never team up with the SNP – while Labour are already dangling another separation referendum to cosy up with the nationalists. The Liberal Democrats can form a remain alliance with Labour – but not us. If we are going to win, it means pushing deeper into Labour territory in the north, midlands and south west, while holding off Lib Dems in the south east and the SNP up north.

The signs are encouraging. One set of constituency polls this week showed us holding seats in London, while another national poll showed us ahead among working class voters by a margin of nearly two-to-one (YouGov, 11-12 Nov).

For someone who got involved in politics when we were in the relegation zone in the mid 1990s, this is heady stuff.
We’ve already come a long way. Alasdair Rae at Sheffield has a neat chart which ranks constituencies in England from the most deprived on the left, to the most affluent on the right.

In 2001, we had no seats in the poorest 30 per cent, and Labour had most of the middle third. [See chart at top of article.] By 2017, the blue tide had already flowed into some areas Labour used to dominate. I hope this time it will surge further. [See chart at bottom of article.]

As we expand, the centre of gravity of Conservative voters has shifted and the Prime Minister has been the fastest to catch the mood. My leaflets this year feature our pledges of 20,000 more police, £450 million for our local hospital and funding for our local schools going up 4.6 per cent per pupil next year. Other than the fact that we also pledge tougher sentences for criminals, controlled immigration and securing our exit from the EU, much of this is the space New Labour used to occupy.

Rumours in the papers say that our tax policy is also going to be squarely focused on helping those working hard on low incomes. I think that would be the right approach.

It’s funny what pops into your head as we pound the pavements in the autumn rain.

For some reason I’ve been thinking about Philip Larkin’s poem, The Whitsun Weddings, describing his sun-drenched train journey from Hull in the north, down through the industrial Midlands to London:

“We ran /
Behind the backs of houses, crossed a street /
Of blinding windscreens, smelt the fish-dock; thence /
The river’s level drifting breadth began, /
Where sky and Lincolnshire and water meet. /
All afternoon, through the tall heat that slept  /
    For miles inland, /
A slow and stopping curve southwards we kept.   /
Wide farms went by, short-shadowed cattle, and
Canals with floatings of industrial froth…”

I feel like we as a party are taking the same journey, but in reverse, with the Conservative tide flowing up through the midlands and north.

Today the route from Hull, which goes via Doncaster, would take you past plenty of Labour marginals. Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe across the Humber. Don Valley and Rother Valley in South Yorkshire. Down through Bassetlaw, where sitting Labour MP and fierce Corbyn critic, John Mann has just stood down, then past Lincoln to the east, and down to London through Peterborough, where we hope to replace jailed Labour MP Fiona Onasanya.

I feel like we have a strong leader, good campaign, we stand for the right things, and people are sick of the delay and dither.

But will it be enough. Will our campaign work this time?

It might just.

Time to get back out there.

Westlake Legal Group Screen-Shot-2019-11-17-at-21.08.55 Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017 YouGov The North south SNP Scunthorpe Rother Valley Polling police Philip Larkin Peterborough Opinion Pollster Opinion Polls NHS New Labour Midlands Liberal Democrats Law and order Labour immigration Highlights Great Grimsby General Election Fiona Onasanya MP Don Valley Daniel Finkelstein Culture crime Conservatives Columnists Caroline Flint MP Campaigning Brexit Alasdair Rae   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

WATCH: Lewis – “A Conservative government with this system will bring immigration down”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

WATCH: Labour on Immigration 2) Corbyn – ‘There will be a great deal of movement’

 

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

WATCH: Tories on Immigration 2) Raab stresses public concern is with “the kind of immigration”, not just volume

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

WATCH: Lewis – “A Conservative government with this system will bring immigration down”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

WATCH: Labour on Immigration 1) Ashworth won’t say if they want numbers up or down

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

In the new Tory immigration policy, less is more

A day on which immigration was the prominent campaign topic has highlighted yet another change from the May era to now. The former Prime Minister clung to the tens of thousands figure more tightly than a Corbynite to the red flag – even when it was obvious it was undeliverable while we had a growing economy and were members of the EU – on the grounds that it was the only way to guarantee credibility on the issue.

But now it has been ditched as a liability. Instead of that specific and totemic pledge, the Conservative policy on immigration has become more vague: there’ll be less of it overall, we want people with particular skills, and whatever we do will be controlled by us.

More vague, but arguably more credible – the very need for the tough-sounding tens of thousands figure was first as a countertone to the more liberal mood and reputation of David Cameron. Latterly it was deployed as what May hoped would be a point of reassurance to Leave voters that a Prime Minister who’d voted Remain understood their concerns. She misjudged that, confusing a desire for control with a desire for toughness even to the point of painfully excessive harshness (remember Amber Rudd announcing that companies should compile lists of foreign employees?).

With a Prime Minister who led the Leave campaign, who resigned in protest at May’s compromises, and who has just battled very publicly against all sorts of Remain forces to get his new deal over the line, however, things look rather different. An OTT pledge is not necessary to build a newly Brexity personal image – ironically, of course, Johnson is personally more liberally disposed on immigration than May. Where she was a Prime Minister more strict on immigration than her Home Secretary, Johnson is less strict on it by inclination than Priti Patel.

One other reason the Conservatives feel comfortable in talking about a more vague immigration policy is that Labour have helpfully adopted a position which the Opposition appear to be desperate not to discuss. As one Government source put it to me recently: “We’re for controlled borders, they’re for open borders, do we need to say more?”

Add in the underlying question, of whether you’d rather have Johnson and Patel in charge of migration policy, or Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott, and you start to see why Labour prefer not to get into a conversation about borders at all.

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Las Vegas PD Announces They Will Stop Cooperating With ICE

Following the lead of states like California and sanctuary cities like Denver or San Francisco, the Las Vegas police department has announced they will no longer detain people on federal immigration holds. The decision is based on California statutes.

In a statement that all but admits the move is probably a waste of time, LVMPD’s Sheriff Joseph Lombardo recognized that the decision would probably be appealed in the courts. He also indicated he was “optimistic that this change will not hinder LVMPD’s ability to fight violent crime”.

To recap, law enforcement has decided not to work with law enforcement. Isn’t this how we got 9/11?

Westlake Legal Group EHlqMotWwAUMLow-620x707 Las Vegas PD Announces They Will Stop Cooperating With ICE sanctuary cities law enforcement Las Vegas pd immigration Ice Front Page Stories

 

 

 

The post Las Vegas PD Announces They Will Stop Cooperating With ICE appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group ICEofficerAPphoto-300x153 Las Vegas PD Announces They Will Stop Cooperating With ICE sanctuary cities law enforcement Las Vegas pd immigration Ice Front Page Stories   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

CNN: Mexico Has Essentially Built Trump’s Wall and Is Paying for It

Westlake Legal Group ap-border-wall-e1487542605382 CNN: Mexico Has Essentially Built Trump’s Wall and Is Paying for It Mexico Media immigration Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Featured Post donald trump CNN Border Wall Funding Border wall Allow Media Exception

FILE – In this Jan. 4, 2016 photo, a U.S. Border Patrol agent drives near the U.S.-Mexico border fence in Santa Teresa, N.M. Can Donald Trump really make good on his promise to build a wall along the 2,000-mile U.S.-Mexican border to prevent illegal migration? What’s more, can he make Mexico pay for it? Sure, he can build it, but it’s not nearly as simple as he says. (AP Photo/Russell Contreras)

You may have noticed in reports about illegal immigration that there’s been a precipitous drop in apprehensions at the border. That’s not because there are fewer being caught, that’s because there are fewer coming across.

That’s in large measure due to the cooperation deal that President Donald Trump struck with Mexico.

In fact, even CNN has had to admit Trump’s success.

In an astonishing case of pigs flying, CNN actually ran article on Sunday by Catherine Shoichet and Natalie Gallón, “Why some say Mexico already built Trump’s wall — and paid for it.”

In it they note that Mexico has effectively built the wall, that Mexico by marshaling thousands of their troops to prevent people from coming in and not going north to the U.S. is acting as the wall itself.

Among the things they have done:

Nearly 15,000 troops are deployed to Mexico’s northern border, where they’ve set up 20 checkpoints, Mexican Defense Minister Luis Cresencio Sandoval said last week at a press briefing on the country’s security strategy. At the southern border, 12,000 troops are deployed and have set up 21 checkpoints.

And it’s worked.

Asked to respond to claims that Mexico is effectively paying for the wall Trump wanted, foreign ministry spokesman Roberto Velasco told CNN that migration flows have notably decreased in recent months, and that efforts continue for a regional development plan to address the root causes of migration in Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

“The number of migrants presented before Mexican authorities has decreased by 70% from June to September,” he said.

This all came after the threat of tariffs from Trump earlier in the year.

CNN doesn’t seem completely pleased while noting this success, quoting Univision’s Jorge Ramos, “It’s true: President Trump is using Mexico. And, against all logic, Mexico is letting him get away with it,” he wrote. “This has to change.”

Why would you want to stop success? Because it doesn’t align with the Democratic effort to open the borders?

But in this case, it’s also to Mexico’s benefit because they’re protecting their own sovereignty as well as preventing folks from getting north to get to the United States.

So will other media pick up on this and give credit where credit is due?

The post CNN: Mexico Has Essentially Built Trump’s Wall and Is Paying for It appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group ap-border-wall-300x186 CNN: Mexico Has Essentially Built Trump’s Wall and Is Paying for It Mexico Media immigration Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Featured Post donald trump CNN Border Wall Funding Border wall Allow Media Exception   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com