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Westlake Legal Group > News and News Media (Page 195)

Devin Nunes Was Allegedly Directly Involved in the Conspiracy Against Biden

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Devin Nunes Was Allegedly Directly Involved in the Conspiracy Against Biden

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Hong Kong toVote After Months of Protests and Rising Violence

Westlake Legal Group 23hk-elect3-facebookJumbo Hong Kong toVote After Months of Protests and Rising Violence Politics and Government Hong Kong Protests (2019) Hong Kong elections Demonstrations, Protests and Riots China

HONG KONG — After months of antigovernment protests in Hong Kong, voters on Sunday will have a chance to cast their opinion on the city’s future — albeit through an election for a group of local officials who mainly deal with noise complaints, bus stop locations and neighborhood beautification projects.

The district council is one of the lowest rungs of Hong Kong’s elected offices. It is usually a quiet affair focused on community issues.

But the race has taken on outsize significance in the midst of the increasingly violent protests that have divided the city. The election will be the first test of whether the protests can transform public anger that has led millions to take to the streets into actual votes, or whether the populace has grown weary of acts of civil disobedience that have snarled transportation and forced the closing of schools and businesses.

“Politically speaking, the battle of the district councils as a whole is a crucial battle in taking control,” said Eddie Chu, a pro-democracy legislator who is also running for district council.

It has been an especially intense election season. Several candidates, on both sides, have been attacked. The police fired tear gas at a campaign rally this month and arrested three candidates. Fears have been widespread that the city leadership could postpone the vote over the unrest.

Here’s a look at the race and what is at stake:

A call to expand Hong Kong’s limited democracy is one of the demands of the protest movement, which began in June over a now-withdrawn proposal that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China. Protesters have called for direct elections for the entire legislature, where currently only 40 of the 70 seats are selected by popular vote. They have also called for the chief executive, who is selected by a largely pro-Beijing election committee, to instead be chosen by voters.

The district councils have no lawmaking power. They control small amounts of public funds for simple infrastructure, like rain shelters. They lodge concerns with government departments over noise, traffic, sanitation and other issues. (Of the 479 district council seats, 452 are directly elected.)

The district council members do have a modest role in choosing the chief executive, Hong Kong’s highest official. Whichever side wins a majority of the seats controls 117 votes in the 1,200-member chief executive election committee.

That election committee is dominated by pro-establishment corporate interests, and the chief executives they have selected have always been loyal to Beijing. But a win would give the overall pro-democracy camp control of an additional 10 percent of the votes, and put it close to the 150 votes necessary to nominate a candidate.

The brochures of district council candidates typically show neighborhood concerns they pledge to fix: trash-filled alleys, air-conditioners dripping on sidewalks and streets lined with illegally parked cars.

This year, several pro-democracy candidates have included protest slogans on their materials. Law Cheuk-yung, 22, said he was inspired to run for district council because of recent social movements. He said he would demand answers from the police after residents complained of possible testing of tear gas in his district, Tuen Mun.

“I want to imagine local government being more responsive,” he said. “At the moment the district council is just a rubber stamp. They do whatever the government wants.”

For such candidates, it is more about playing to the sentiment of the protests rather than taking action. They would not have much of a role in addressing protesters’ demands, which include an investigation into the police’s use of force, offering amnesty to those arrested in the protests and expanding direct elections.

“They are all trying to capitalize on public anger,” said Suzanne Pepper, a scholar of Chinese politics who lives in Hong Kong.

Establishment parties have long had an advantage in these races, in part because they are much better funded, with backing from businesses. Currently the pro-Beijing camp holds 327 district council seats versus 124 for the pro-democracy group.

Rising interest in the election has meant that pro-democracy candidates are participating in every race, unlike previous years, when some establishment district council members ran unopposed. And after worries about disqualifications, only one of the camp’s candidates, the prominent activist Joshua Wong, was barred from running this year for political reasons. An election officer ruled that Mr. Wong could not uphold Hong Kong law because his political organization viewed independence from China as a possible goal for the city.

A string of violent attacks on election candidates has hung over the race. Twelve opposition figures, including prominent politicians and activists as well as first-time candidates, have been ambushed and bloodied by gangs of masked men or attacked while canvassing for votes.

“We can see Hong Kong isn’t as free and as civilized as we’d previously imagined,” said Jannelle Leung, a 25-year-old accountant who was struck in the back of her head with a hard object in early October the day she announced she was officially running. She also said she received sexually harassing phone calls before the attack.

Jocelyn Chau, a first-time candidate like Ms. Leung who received similar lurid calls before being punched by a man while canvassing last month in the pro-Beijing neighborhood of North Point, criticized the government for not condemning the attacks on pro-democracy figures. “Not even superficial gestures,” said Ms. Chau, 23.

The polarizing pro-Beijing lawmaker Junius Ho was injured in a knife attack this month and his offices were vandalized. He called the attack “a dark day for the district council election,” adding that the “orderly election had been completely obliterated.”

The attacks on candidates and vandalism have stirred worries that the election might be postponed. Some pro-democracy figures have said that a delay could harm their strength at the polls.

Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said the government would do its best to ensure the election would go on as scheduled. Chris Tang, the Hong Kong police commissioner, said Friday that there would be a large police presence across the city on Sunday to prevent violence.

The city was convulsed by two weeks of intense protest after the death of a college student who fell from a parking structure near where the police had clashed with protesters. Several campuses have been engulfed by large demonstrations, including Chinese University of Hong Kong, where protesters clashed with the police and occupied the college for five days, and at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, where at one point more than 1,000 people were trapped by a police siege.

Patrick Nip, the secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, warned Monday that further unrest would reduce the chances of the election’s being held as scheduled. He called for an end to violence “and all kinds of duress.”

In the past few days, protests have ebbed drastically, however, as the city prepared to take its conflicts to the polls.

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Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation

A Honduran construction worker who reportedly attempted to warn managers about unsafe conditions prior to being injured in last month’s deadly partial collapse of the Hard Rock Hotel in New Orleans will be deported on Monday, his lawyers say.

Delmer Joel Ramirez Palma was arrested by immigration agents two days after the 18-story hotel fell onto a busy downtown intersection on Oct. 12, killing three people and injuring dozens.

Ramirez Palma managed to survive the collapse after he fell from the ninth to the sixth floor by swinging from a rope, according to the Guardian.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO EXPAND ‘REMAIN-IN-MEXICO’ PROGRAM AT KEY BORDER CROSSINGS

Westlake Legal Group Hotel-Collapse-2-Getty Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation fox-news/us/us-regions/southeast/louisiana fox-news/us/immigration fox-news/us fox news fnc/us fnc David Aaro article 7896e455-c335-52b6-bfd6-c76136cbe683

A Honduran construction worker who was injured while attempting to warn managers about unsafe conditions before last month’s deadly Hard Rock Hotel collapse in New Orleans will be deported on Monday, per his lawyers. (Hotel Collapse Getty)

His wife and lawyers say he was hospitalized with serious injuries, including head trauma, an acute eye injury and internal inflammation.

Following the incident, Ramirez Pena was interviewed by a Spanish-language media outlet. Two days later, U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement arrested him while fishing with his family at a wildlife refuge, reports say.

They moved him to an immigration holding facility at the Alexandria International Airport in central Louisiana last week, as ICE agents prepare to deport him.

His attorneys warn that because Ramirez Palma was outspoken about the unsafe conditions at the hotel, deporting him could impact an investigation by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration into what caused the collapse.

Westlake Legal Group Hotel-Collapse-3-AP Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation fox-news/us/us-regions/southeast/louisiana fox-news/us/immigration fox-news/us fox news fnc/us fnc David Aaro article 7896e455-c335-52b6-bfd6-c76136cbe683

Debris hangs on the side of the building after a large portion of a hotel under construction suddenly collapsed in New Orleans on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2019. Several construction workers had to run to safety as the Hard Rock Hotel, which has been under construction for the last several months, came crashing down. It was not immediately clear what caused the collapse or if anyone was injured. (Scott Threlkeld/The Advocate via AP)

They added that other undocumented immigrations are hesitant to talk with federal investigators about what happened for fear of deportation.

LOUISIANA BANK ROBBER SEEN IN VIDEO TRIPPING SEVERAL TIMES DURING GETAWAY

“I am sure the Hispanic workers there [at Hard Rock] don’t want to cooperate for the same reason. They are scared the same thing that happened to Joel can happen to them,” his wife, Tania Bueso told Nola.com.

Some of the safety concerns he attempted to shed light on included asymmetrical building measurements and uncured concrete that couldn’t support enough weight, his lawyers and wife say.

“He talks about how this disaster could have been avoided if they had been paid more attention when they could see — clearly — that the building, in some areas, wasn’t right,” Bueso told the outlet. “When he used the laser [measurement tool], he also said he had to check two or three times to make sure the measurement was right because the building was so imbalanced.”

Westlake Legal Group Hotel-Collapse-1-AP Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation fox-news/us/us-regions/southeast/louisiana fox-news/us/immigration fox-news/us fox news fnc/us fnc David Aaro article 7896e455-c335-52b6-bfd6-c76136cbe683

Workers begin the process of preparing the two unstable cranes for implosion at the collapse site of the Hard Rock Hotel, which underwent a partial, major collapse while under construction last Sat., Oct., 12, in New Orleans, Friday, Oct. 18, 2019. Plans have been pushed back a day to bring down two giant, unstable construction cranes in a series of controlled explosions before they can topple onto historic New Orleans buildings, the city’s fire chief said Friday, noting the risky work involved in placing explosive on the towers. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Those concerns were ignored by his construction managers, said Mary Yanik, an attorney at the New Orleans Workers’ Center for Racial Justice, according to the Guardian.

“There’s really crucial information here that the public needs to get to the bottom of what happened at Hard Rock,” Yanick told the outlet.

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In 2016, Ramirez Palma had been ordered to be deported and he lacks legal authorization to work in the United States. He filed for a stay of deportation early this year.

Westlake Legal Group Hotel-Collapse-2-Getty Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation fox-news/us/us-regions/southeast/louisiana fox-news/us/immigration fox-news/us fox news fnc/us fnc David Aaro article 7896e455-c335-52b6-bfd6-c76136cbe683   Westlake Legal Group Hotel-Collapse-2-Getty Construction worker who survived deadly New Orleans hotel collapse faces deportation fox-news/us/us-regions/southeast/louisiana fox-news/us/immigration fox-news/us fox news fnc/us fnc David Aaro article 7896e455-c335-52b6-bfd6-c76136cbe683

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Fashion brand Loewe called out for outfit resembling concentration camp uniform

For $1,840, you too can offend victims of the Holocaust.

Spanish fashion brand Loewe is under fire for a recent capsule collection with one outfit that bears a striking resemblance to a concentration camp uniform.

Industry watchdog Diet Prada called out the Madrid-based luxury company on Instagram, noting a striped shirt and pants combo in the brand’s William De Morgan capsule collection was nearly identical to the outfits millions of Jews were forced to wear in death camps during World War II.

Loewe removed the product from Loewe.com after The Post reached out for comment and were referred to a new statement on the brand’s Instagram Story.

AMAZON PULLS ‘DADDY’S LITTLE SLUT’ T-SHIRT FOR CHILDREN AMID BACKLASH

“It was brought to our attention that one of our looks featured in a magazine and part of our Arts and Crafts ceramicist William De Morgan could be misconstrued as referring to one of the most odious moments in the history of mankind,” the statement read. “It was absolutely never our intention, and we apologize to anyone who might feel we were insensitive to sacred memories. The products featured have been removed from our commercial offering.”

Before the items were pulled from the site, Loewe described the “Stripe Workwear Jacket White/Black” as a “boxy workwear-inspired jacket with pockets, crafted in durable canvas cotton, featuring LOEWE Anagram-embossed leather patch on breast panel.” The price tag was $950.

However, the shirt is still being sold at fashion e-commerce site Ssense.

KMART REMOVES KID’S BRIDE COSTUME AFTER SEVERE BACKLASH: ‘BEYOND INAPPROPRIATE’

Diet Prada pointed out that the black-and-white ensemble has a pattern of stripes and “prominent chest patches” that appear to look like the death camp uniforms.

“Unable to see anything but concentration camp uniforms in this $1,840 ensemble from @loewe‘s William De Morgan capsule, a collection meant to ‘capture a freedom of imagination,’” the popular social media account posted to its 1.6 million followers. “There’s not actually much left to the imagination when the resulting look is so uncannily disturbing.”

Westlake Legal Group Concentration-Camp-Uniform-Govt-of-Western-Australia Fashion brand Loewe called out for outfit resembling concentration camp uniform New York Post fox-news/topic/holocaust fox-news/style-and-beauty fnc/lifestyle fnc article 486fb2b2-b049-5876-a3b5-e97b69b51677

Spanish fashion brand Loewe is under fire for a recent capsule collection with one outfit that bears a striking resemblance to a concentration camp uniform. (Photo: Govt of Western Australia)

Commenters seemed to agree with Diet Prada, posting notes of outrage.

“This just baffles me. How the f – – k does an entire team of people overlook such a similarity in design to the most horrifying event of the 20th century,” one Instagram user wrote. “This is deeply upsetting,” wrote another. “Wow this is one of the poorest taste I’ve seen in a while,” a third chimed in.

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As the blog pointed out, Urban Outfitters and Zara have both been called out in the past for similar outfits. Zara pulled a pair of pajamas after outrage in 2014 and UO was selling a tapestry “eerily reminiscent” of Holocaust uniforms in 2015.

Loewe’s creative director, Jonathan Anderson, recently discussed the capsule collection that drew inspiration from British ceramicist and potter De Morgan with British Vogue, calling it similar to the “fantasy” of “Harry Potter.”

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“It’s fantasy — but an odd type of fantasy,” he said. “There’s something which I think, in a weird way, has a sort of wizardry about it. Kind of like an early ‘Harry Potter.’ ”

Vogue France called it “the most artistic collection of the season.”

This story was originally published by The New York Post.

Westlake Legal Group Stirped-Shirt-SSENSE Fashion brand Loewe called out for outfit resembling concentration camp uniform New York Post fox-news/topic/holocaust fox-news/style-and-beauty fnc/lifestyle fnc article 486fb2b2-b049-5876-a3b5-e97b69b51677   Westlake Legal Group Stirped-Shirt-SSENSE Fashion brand Loewe called out for outfit resembling concentration camp uniform New York Post fox-news/topic/holocaust fox-news/style-and-beauty fnc/lifestyle fnc article 486fb2b2-b049-5876-a3b5-e97b69b51677

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‘Everything Is Connected’: Ukrainian Gas Company’s CEO Willing to Testify Against Rudy Giuliani

Westlake Legal Group Prtat3SADy_xOXmcXF5-I4pxHOIpfuSKiB84G-c1iEc ‘Everything Is Connected’: Ukrainian Gas Company’s CEO Willing to Testify Against Rudy Giuliani r/politics

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Emily Compagno visits military dogs at Fort Dix training center, becomes fake bait

Westlake Legal Group Emily-Puppy-FOX Emily Compagno visits military dogs at Fort Dix training center, becomes fake bait Julia Musto fox-news/us/personal-freedoms/proud-american fox-news/us/military fox-news/shows/fox-friends-weekend fox-news/media/fox-news-flash fox news fnc/media fnc ce8df223-4ed2-51e2-97b6-8072ae193ff0 article

This week Fox News contributor Emily Compagno took a trip to the dog kennel at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in New Jersey to see how military working dogs are trained to protect U.S. troops every day.

Appearing on “Fox & Friends: Weekend” with hosts Ed Henry, Pete Hegseth, and Rachel Campos-Duffy, Compagno said that she had a “great time” observing canine training but “also got pretty much the scare of [her] life” when she became the fake bait for one of the dogs.

“Those dogs are trained to the nth degree,” she told the “Friends: Weekend” hosts.

MILITARY POOCHES ARE SPECIALLY TRAINED FROM BIRTH TO SERVE ALONGSIDE TROOPS

“It’s also so exciting and it’s incredible to see and witness the bond between those dogs and their handlers, to hear the reverence these soldiers have for their fellow soldiers, for how honorable the entire process is, of course,” said Compagno.

While on the base, Compagno spoke with some of the sergeants who said that their main mission is “law enforcement and security of the base.”

“Our dogs that are trained as explosive, narcotic, and patrol detector jobs,” one soldier said. “Anybody who is committing offenses against the base, bringing contraband onto the base, we’ll be there to enhance the base’s security.”

Most dogs trained to serve in the U.S. military are Belgian Malinois and German and Dutch shepherds, according to the nonprofit U.S. War Dogs Association. These breeds are selected “because they are very aggressive, smart, loyal and athletic.”

A Belgian Malinois accompanied U.S. Navy SEALs on the 2011 raid that killed Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden. Another was “slightly wounded” in the mission to take out ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The vast majority of military working dogs are trained with the 341st Training Squadron at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. The dogs first go through 60 days of detection training and 60 days of patrol training. Following that, they go through a certification process and then are released to their duty station.

The base members said that the dog teams are always training to better themselves.

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“The bond that you’re going to build with these dogs is essential to your success as a dog team,” another sergeant told Compagno.

Fox News’ Nicole Darrah contributed to this report.

Westlake Legal Group Emily-Puppy-FOX Emily Compagno visits military dogs at Fort Dix training center, becomes fake bait Julia Musto fox-news/us/personal-freedoms/proud-american fox-news/us/military fox-news/shows/fox-friends-weekend fox-news/media/fox-news-flash fox news fnc/media fnc ce8df223-4ed2-51e2-97b6-8072ae193ff0 article   Westlake Legal Group Emily-Puppy-FOX Emily Compagno visits military dogs at Fort Dix training center, becomes fake bait Julia Musto fox-news/us/personal-freedoms/proud-american fox-news/us/military fox-news/shows/fox-friends-weekend fox-news/media/fox-news-flash fox news fnc/media fnc ce8df223-4ed2-51e2-97b6-8072ae193ff0 article

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Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020

Westlake Legal Group 19poll-failures1-facebookJumbo Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020 Trump, Donald J Research Presidential Election of 2020 Presidential Election of 2016 Polls and Public Opinion American Association of Public Opinion Research

Meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research tend to be pretty staid affairs. But when members of the group gathered for a conference call at this time in 2016, the polling industry was experiencing a crisis of confidence.

Donald J. Trump had swept most of the Midwest to win a majority in the Electoral College, a shocking upset that defied most state-by-state polls and prognoses. An association task force, which was already working on a routine report about pre-election poll methodologies, was suddenly tasked with figuring out what had gone wrong.

“We moved from doing this sort of niche industry report to almost like more of an autopsy,” said Courtney Kennedy, the director of survey research at Pew Research Center, who headed the task force. “Something major just happened, and we have to really understand from A to Z why it happened.”

The group released its report the following spring. Today, with the next presidential election less than a year away, pollsters are closely studying the findings of that document and others like it, looking for adjustments they can make in 2020 to avoid the misfires of 2016.

“Polling is one of those things like military battles: You always re-fight the last war,” said Joshua D. Clinton, who co-directs the University of Vanderbilt’s poll and served on the AAPOR committee. The 2020 election “might have a different set of considerations,” he said, but pollsters have an obligation to learn from the last cycle’s mistakes.

By and large, nationwide surveys were relatively accurate in predicting the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won by two percentage points. But in crucial parts of the country, especially in the Midwest, individual state polls persistently underestimated Mr. Trump’s support. And election forecasters used those polls in Electoral College projections that gave the impression Mrs. Clinton was a heavy favorite.

AAPOR’s analysis found several reasons the state polls missed the mark. Certain groups were underrepresented in poll after poll, particularly less educated white voters and those in counties that had voted decisively against President Barack Obama in 2012. Respondents’ unwillingness to speak honestly about their support for Mr. Trump may have also been a factor.

These and other issues could reappear in 2020, pollsters warn, if they’re not addressed directly.

To make sure their results reflect the true makeup of the population, pollsters typically “weight” their data, adding emphasis to certain respondents so that a group that was underrepresented in the random sample still has enough influence over the poll’s final result. Polls typically weight by age, race and other demographic categories.

But some state-level polls in 2016 did not weight by education levels, therefore giving short shrift to less educated voters, who tend to be harder to reach.

This often understated Mr. Trump’s support, since he was markedly more popular than past Republican nominees among less educated voters — and noticeably less popular among those with higher degrees, who research suggests are more likely to participate in polls.

The AAPOR analysts found that many polls in swing states would have achieved significantly different results had they been weighted for education. This, in turn, would have noticeably decreased Mrs. Clinton’s lead in much-watched polling averages and forecasts of these states.

A Michigan State University poll that found Mrs. Clinton holding a 17-point lead in that state just before the election did not weight by education. If it had, her lead would have dropped to 10 points in that poll, the AAPOR researchers found — still a far cry from predicting Mr. Trump’s narrow victory there, but a significant change.

And a University of New Hampshire poll put Mrs. Clinton up by 16 points in that state on the eve of the election, though in the end she barely won it. That poll’s gap would have closed entirely if its analysts had weighted for education, according to the AAPOR report.

Some polling firms that did not weight by education in 2016 have since taken up the practice, but not all of them. Mark Blumenthal, the former head of polling at Survey Monkey and a member of the AAPOR task force, said that weighting by education ought to be accepted as necessary. “I think that’s a reasonable line to draw,” he said.

A pre-election study by Morning Consult warned that wealthier, more educated Republicans appeared slightly more reluctant to tell phone interviewers that they supported Mr. Trump, compared with similar voters who responded to online polls.

Pollsters refer to this phenomenon as the “shy Trump” effect, or — in academic parlance — a form of “social-desirability bias.” Studies have affirmed that in races where a candidate or cause is perceived as controversial or otherwise undesirable, voters can be wary of voicing their support, especially to a live interviewer.

Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin voters, said he worried that the shy Trump effect had played a role in skewing the poll’s results away from Mr. Trump in 2016.

Mr. Franklin, who was a member of the AAPOR team, suggested how telephone interviewers might confront the issue with respondents next year: “When they indicate they’re undecided or maybe considering a third-party vote, maybe push people a little more on whether they could change their mind,” he said.

One polling firm that showed Mr. Trump narrowly leading in some of the most inaccurately polled states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, all of which he won — was Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling and consulting firm that uses a variety of nontraditional polling methodologies.

It sought to combat the shy Trump effect by asking respondents not only how they planned to vote but also how they thought their neighbors would vote — possibly offering Trump supporters a way to project their feelings onto someone else.

The AAPOR report posited that the neighbor question could help overcome shyness among Trump supporters, particularly in phone interviews. It “warrants experimentation in a broad array of contests,” the report said.

That was not the only way Trafalgar innovated. Polls typically use a formula based on past elections to determine which voters are likely to show up on Election Day. They then discard or devalue responses from those who seem less predisposed — typically those without much history of voting, or who don’t express much enthusiasm about politics.

Trafalgar used a generously inclusive model, with a particular eye toward less frequent voters whom Mr. Trump’s anti-establishment campaign had drawn in.

“With Trump, we saw in the primary how new people were being brought into the process, and so we widened the net of who we reached out to,” Robert C. Cahaly, a pollster at Trafalgar, said in an interview.

When the Census Bureau in 2017 released detailed voting information from the 2016 election, it revealed that turnout had surged in many counties that Mr. Obama had lost by 10 points or more in 2012 — particularly in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It is a reminder that who voted in the previous election is not always a good indicator of who will vote the next time.

“This is where the art comes in, and it’s hard to know until it actually happens which approach is the best approach,” Mr. Clinton said, referring to how polling firms construct their likely-voter models.

The polls from 2016 make clear that finding a representative sample is both the hardest and the most important part of conducting an effective survey. This is not new knowledge for public-opinion professionals, but many said it was a lesson worth relearning.

Compounding all the other factors in 2016 was the simple fact that — in a race with two historically unpopular candidates — many voters didn’t reach a decision until just before Election Day.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, between 13 and 15 percent of respondents in exit polls said they had decided in the last week of the campaign. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by a wide margin; in Wisconsin, it was about 30 points.

Pew researchers also called back respondents of their pre-election polls and found that many had changed their minds and voted differently than they’d said they would, which is not uncommon. But these voters broke for Mr. Trump by a 16-point margin — a heavier tilt than in any other year on record.

So, in a volatile election, even a perfectly effective poll might not be able to gauge the outcome; a poll can only take the pulse of where voters’ feelings lie in a particular moment.

That points to a major source of agita for some observers of the 2016 election: electoral forecasts in the news media and elsewhere that used polling data to suggest Mrs. Clinton was highly likely to win. Most of them put her chances at somewhere between 70 and 99 percent.

“I’m not sure people understand how these probabilistic projections are produced or what they mean,” Gary Langer, a pollster who works with ABC News, said in an email. “I’d suggest that predicting election outcomes is the least important contribution of pre-election polls. Bringing us to a better understanding of how and why the nation comes to these choices is the higher value that good-quality polls provide.”

Election forecasters do not mean to convey absolute certainty. Just before Election Day, The New York Times’s Upshot forecast gave Mr. Trump a 15 percent chance of winning, and FiveThirtyEight’s model put his chances at 29 percent, indicating that a Republican win was not out of the question.

But the Princeton Election Consortium, which had predicted the 2012 results with striking accuracy, was more certain of a Clinton win, giving her a 99 percent chance in the days leading up to the election.

Sam Wang, a neuroscientist who runs the Princeton model, said in an email that in 2016 he had not factored in enough potential “systematic error” — a catchall variable that accounts for imperfections in individual polls. In 2016, he never set that variable higher than 1.1 percentage points, but in 2020 he plans to set it at two points.

“That will increase the uncertainty much more,” he said, “which will set expectations appropriately in case the election is close.”

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Hong Kong Votes After Months of Protests and Rising Violence

Westlake Legal Group 23hk-elect3-facebookJumbo Hong Kong Votes After Months of Protests and Rising Violence Politics and Government Hong Kong Protests (2019) Hong Kong elections Demonstrations, Protests and Riots China

HONG KONG — After months of antigovernment protests in Hong Kong, voters on Sunday will have a chance to cast their opinion on the city’s future — albeit through an election for a group of local officials who mainly deal with noise complaints, bus stop locations and neighborhood beautification projects.

The district council is one of the lowest rungs of Hong Kong’s elected offices. It is usually a quiet affair focused on community issues.

But the race has taken on outsize significance in the midst of the increasingly violent protests that have divided the city. The election will be the first test of whether the protests can transform public anger that has led millions to take to the streets into actual votes, or whether the populace has grown weary of acts of civil disobedience that have snarled transportation and forced the closing of schools and businesses.

“Politically speaking, the battle of the district councils as a whole is a crucial battle in taking control,” said Eddie Chu, a pro-democracy legislator who is also running for district council.

It has been an especially intense election season. Several candidates, on both sides, have been attacked. The police fired tear gas at a campaign rally this month and arrested three candidates. Fears have been widespread that the city leadership could postpone the vote over the unrest.

Here’s a look at the race and what is at stake:

A call to expand Hong Kong’s limited democracy is one of the demands of the protest movement, which began in June over a now-withdrawn proposal that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China. Protesters have called for direct elections for the entire legislature, where currently only 40 of the 70 seats are selected by popular vote. They have also called for the chief executive, who is selected by a largely pro-Beijing election committee, to instead be chosen by voters.

The district councils have no lawmaking power. They control small amounts of public funds for simple infrastructure, like rain shelters. They lodge concerns with government departments over noise, traffic, sanitation and other issues. (Of the 479 district council seats, 452 are directly elected.)

The district council members do have a modest role in choosing the chief executive, Hong Kong’s highest official. Whichever side wins a majority of the seats controls 117 votes in the 1,200-member chief executive election committee.

That election committee is dominated by pro-establishment corporate interests, and the chief executives they have selected have always been loyal to Beijing. But a win would give the overall pro-democracy camp control of an additional 10 percent of the votes, and put it close to the 150 votes necessary to nominate a candidate.

The brochures of district council candidates typically show neighborhood concerns they pledge to fix: trash-filled alleys, air-conditioners dripping on sidewalks and streets lined with illegally parked cars.

This year, several pro-democracy candidates have included protest slogans on their materials. Law Cheuk-yung, 22, said he was inspired to run for district council because of recent social movements. He said he would demand answers from the police after residents complained of possible testing of tear gas in his district, Tuen Mun.

“I want to imagine local government being more responsive,” he said. “At the moment the district council is just a rubber stamp. They do whatever the government wants.”

For such candidates, it is more about playing to the sentiment of the protests rather than taking action. They would not have much of a role in addressing protesters’ demands, which include an investigation into the police’s use of force, offering amnesty to those arrested in the protests and expanding direct elections.

“They are all trying to capitalize on public anger,” said Suzanne Pepper, a scholar of Chinese politics who lives in Hong Kong.

Establishment parties have long had an advantage in these races, in part because they are much better funded, with backing from businesses. Currently the pro-Beijing camp holds 327 district council seats versus 124 for the pro-democracy group.

Rising interest in the election has meant that pro-democracy candidates are participating in every race, unlike previous years, when some establishment district council members ran unopposed. And after worries about disqualifications, only one of the camp’s candidates, the prominent activist Joshua Wong, was barred from running this year for political reasons. An election officer ruled that Mr. Wong could not uphold Hong Kong law because his political organization viewed independence from China as a possible goal for the city.

A string of violent attacks on election candidates has hung over the race. Twelve opposition figures, including prominent politicians and activists as well as first-time candidates, have been ambushed and bloodied by gangs of masked men or attacked while canvassing for votes.

“We can see Hong Kong isn’t as free and as civilized as we’d previously imagined,” said Jannelle Leung, a 25-year-old accountant who was struck in the back of her head with a hard object in early October the day she announced she was officially running. She also said she received sexually harassing phone calls before the attack.

Jocelyn Chau, a first-time candidate like Ms. Leung who received similar lurid calls before being punched by a man while canvassing last month in the pro-Beijing neighborhood of North Point, criticized the government for not condemning the attacks on pro-democracy figures. “Not even superficial gestures,” said Ms. Chau, 23.

The polarizing pro-Beijing lawmaker Junius Ho was injured in a knife attack this month and his offices were vandalized. He called the attack “a dark day for the district council election,” adding that the “orderly election had been completely obliterated.”

The attacks on candidates and vandalism have stirred worries that the election might be postponed. Some pro-democracy figures have said that a delay could harm their strength at the polls.

Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said the government would do its best to ensure the election would go on as scheduled. Chris Tang, the Hong Kong police commissioner, said Friday that there would be a large police presence across the city on Sunday to prevent violence.

The city was convulsed by two weeks of intense protest after the death of a college student who fell from a parking structure near where the police had clashed with protesters. Several campuses have been engulfed by large demonstrations, including Chinese University of Hong Kong, where protesters clashed with the police and occupied the college for five days, and at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, where at one point more than 1,000 people were trapped by a police siege.

Patrick Nip, the secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, warned Monday that further unrest would reduce the chances of the election’s being held as scheduled. He called for an end to violence “and all kinds of duress.”

In the past few days, protests have ebbed drastically, however, as the city prepared to take its conflicts to the polls.

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Milwaukee authorities find weapons stash in hermit’s underground bunker in the woods

A Wisconsin man was founding living in an undetected underground bunk in the Milwaukee woods for years with a dog and a stockpile of weapons and ammunition.

Deputies discovered hermit Geoffrey Goff’s odd, hidden abode on Wednesday after responding to a call of shots fired.

After entering the 8-foot-by-8-foot bunker – which was also 20-feet-long – the deputies found an arsenal of weapons including two shotguns, a rifle, a handgun, three knives, ammo and a bow with arrows fashioned from “snowplow stakes,” Milwaukee County Sheriff Earnell Lucas said at a news conference Friday.

Westlake Legal Group Mugshot-Bunker-AP Milwaukee authorities find weapons stash in hermit's underground bunker in the woods Robert Gearty fox-news/us/us-regions/midwest/wisconsin fox-news/us/crime/police-and-law-enforcement fox-news/us/crime fox news fnc/us fnc bb4c212d-d97e-5bf8-ba8a-21adcee07c83 article

Mugshot for Geoffrey Graff who was arrested after sheriff’s deputies found a stash of weapons in an underground bunker belonging to him in a secluded, wooded area along the Milwaukee River in Milwaukee. (Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Office via AP)

WISCONSIN FUGITIVE VANISHED BEFORE TRIAL, HID FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS IN CRAMPED AND CLUTTERED MAKESHIFT BUNKER

“One would wonder how in an urban setting an individual is able to hide in plain sight,” Lucas said.

Graff, 41, was charged Friday with possession of a shotgun, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

He was also charged with reckless endangerment after admitting that he was the one who fired the shots that deputies were called to check out, according to the paper. Graff said he fired three shots towards the Milwaukee River after his dog ran away.

Westlake Legal Group Weapons-Bunker-AP Milwaukee authorities find weapons stash in hermit's underground bunker in the woods Robert Gearty fox-news/us/us-regions/midwest/wisconsin fox-news/us/crime/police-and-law-enforcement fox-news/us/crime fox news fnc/us fnc bb4c212d-d97e-5bf8-ba8a-21adcee07c83 article

Photo shows items found in an underground bunker where Geoffrey Graff was arrested after sheriff’s deputies found a stash of weapons in the bunker. Officers found the bunker after residents reported shots fired. (Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Office via AP)

Lucas said Graff’s bunker also had a grill, propane tanks, a generator, various power tools, boxes of food and canned goods.

“Let’s just be thankful that this didn’t manifest itself in a way, that it could’ve been more. We could be investigating something totally different,” Lucas said.

FORMER NAZI BUNKER TO BE SITE OF LUXURY HOTEL

Graff had constructed the bunker on wooded land along the river that was owned by a local college, Fox 6 Milwaukee reported.

<img src="https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2019/11/640/320/Inside-Bunker-AP.jpg?ve=1&tl=1" alt="Photo shows the interior of an underground bunker where Geoffrey Graff was arrested after sheriff’s deputies found a stash of weapons in the bunker.
​​​​​​​(Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Office via AP)”>

Photo shows the interior of an underground bunker where Geoffrey Graff was arrested after sheriff’s deputies found a stash of weapons in the bunker.<br> ​​​​​​​(Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Office via AP)

The criminal complaint says Graff had been living there for about seven to ten years, according to the paper.

The station quoted Lucas as saying that investigators had “not been able to find any ideological or political motive for the individual’s alleged conduct.”

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Court records show a 2012 arrest for scuffling with cops trying to detain him and a 2009 summons for riding a bike down the street with eight German shepherd dogs running alongside, the station reported.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Westlake Legal Group Mugshot-Bunker-AP Milwaukee authorities find weapons stash in hermit's underground bunker in the woods Robert Gearty fox-news/us/us-regions/midwest/wisconsin fox-news/us/crime/police-and-law-enforcement fox-news/us/crime fox news fnc/us fnc bb4c212d-d97e-5bf8-ba8a-21adcee07c83 article   Westlake Legal Group Mugshot-Bunker-AP Milwaukee authorities find weapons stash in hermit's underground bunker in the woods Robert Gearty fox-news/us/us-regions/midwest/wisconsin fox-news/us/crime/police-and-law-enforcement fox-news/us/crime fox news fnc/us fnc bb4c212d-d97e-5bf8-ba8a-21adcee07c83 article

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