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Westlake Legal Group > poll (Page 4)

56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll

Westlake Legal Group dt-1 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

It is and forever will remain a newsworthy event whenever Fox News drops a terrible poll on POTUS. That’s partly because it proves once again how independent the news division over there is from the opinion wing. Pretty much everything in this new survey directly contradicts standard Fox News primetime conventional wisdom.

But partly too it’s because Trump can’t help but interpret bad news for him as the product of a grudge or some illicit bias, even when it’s coming from a scientific poll conducted by the most Trump-friendly major news outlet in America. And so we’re guaranteed to see another round of whiny “Why isn’t Fox News loyal anymore?” presidential tweeting once these numbers make it onto his desk.

Which is always fun.

As bad as this poll is for him personally, it’s worse for the cause of gun rights generally. Here’s the trend on banning assault weapons in Fox polling since the Newtown massacre in late 2012.

Westlake Legal Group ar-1 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

Dig into the crosstabs and you’ll find that independents strongly favor the idea at 58/28 while Republicans split dead even at 46. That’s a bit better for gun-rights advocates than last week’s Morning Consult poll, which found 55 percent of Republicans in favor, but both polls go to show that the GOP writ large isn’t as hostile to banning assault weapons as the activist class is. And by “GOP writ large,” I don’t mean country-club types: 61 percent of rural white voters also support a ban, per Fox.

And those numbers, relatively speaking, are actually pretty good for gun-rights supporters. Support for universal background checks here is at 90 percent, with 89 percent of Republicans in favor. Support for red-flag laws (“Allowing police to temporarily take guns away from people who have been shown to be a danger to themselves or others”) runs at an 81 percent clip, including 75 percent of GOPers. To repeat a point I made a few days ago, there’s no doubt that those two measures will pass Congress *eventually*, even if it means waiting another 5-10 years until Dems regain control of government. They’re too popular to be held at bay forever. The strategic reason for gun-rights fans to resist them is to raise the legislative cost to Dems to passing other, more aggressive regulations like an AWB. If Democrats have to move heaven and earth just to expand background checks and pass a red-flag bill, even with both polling at over 80 percent, they’re more likely to hold off on a run at assault weapons. For awhile.

As for Trump, here’s one question on guns that doesn’t bode well for him:

Westlake Legal Group g-1 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

Forty-six percent opposition on any question involving the president is par for the course. What’s notable here is that the usual mirror-image effect, in which Republicans dutifully choose the polling option that reflects well on him, isn’t happening. Even most Republicans aren’t willing to argue that he’s made the country safer (despite his bump-stock ban, remember). Meanwhile, a clear majority of the public thinks the “sentiments” he’s expressed are at least partly to blame for mass shootings over the last few years:

Westlake Legal Group h-1 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

A majority of independents (50/41) say Trump’s “sentiments” are a “great deal” to blame or bear “some” blame for the shootings. Even his base of whites without a college degree is evenly split at 47/47. By comparison, just 38 percent overall say Democratic political leaders bear some blame for shootings.

And just to show you how comprehensive anti-gun feeling is running in this poll, the NRA’s favorable rating is underwater for the first time in a Fox News survey in more than 20 years:

Westlake Legal Group Voila_Capture-2019-08-15_11-03-35_AM 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

A month after Newtown, the group was still at a healthy 56/33 level. I wonder if it’s left-leaners who are driving the downturn in support, fed up with the spate of mass shootings and the NRA’s opposition to virtually all proposed reforms, or if it’s *right-leaners* who are driving it, disgusted by the managerial chaos that’s plagued the group for months. Could be both, of course.

Add it all together and Trump’s job approval momentarily stands at 43/56, the highest disapproval rating he’s seen at Fox since October 2017. It’s not all because of a gun backlash, though: When asked if imposing tariffs helps or hurts the U.S. economy, the share that says it helps has dropped to just 29 percent, down four points since June. The share that says it hurts is up to 46 percent by comparison. If the economy slips into a recession, Trump will scramble to blame everyone but himself (as usual) — the Fed first and foremost, Congress, George Soros, you name it. But he’s already dangerously close to a majority believing that his favored tactic is doing more harm than good. If this keeps up, he’s going to start backing off the trade war as a matter of pure self-preservation.

In lieu of an exit question, one last piece of data for you. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats say they’d prefer to live in a country where guns are banned:

Westlake Legal Group d 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval

I hear Australia is lovely. Vaya con Dios, guys!

The post 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group dt-1-300x153 56% say Trump’s rhetoric bears some blame for recent mass shootings, per … Fox News poll weapons Trump Trade War The Blog survey shootings rhetoric poll nra job fox news Blame background checks assault approval   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so

Westlake Legal Group je-1 Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so theories The Blog suicide Rasmussen poll murder mcc Jeffrey Epstein hanging conspiracy

I’m shocked.

I mean, I thought the conspiracy faction would be 80 percent or better.

Consider this a moral victory for America’s public institutions, then. Only a plurality has completely lost faith in you!

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 29% of American Adults believe Epstein actually committed suicide while in jail. Forty-two percent (42%) think Epstein was murdered to prevent him from testifying against powerful people with whom he associated…

Among Americans who have been following the story Very Closely, 56% say Epstein was murdered…

Men are more likely than women to think Epstein was murdered. Whites are less suspicious than blacks and other minority adults.

Two interesting facts from the crosstabs (which aren’t publicly available). First, among 14 different demographic groups tested (gender, age, race, party), none has a clear majority of people who believe Epstein was murdered. The closest is 48 percent among blacks, the group that has the most reason historically to doubt the good faith of American institutions. But still, most people are still either in the suicide camp or open to suicide as an explanation.

Having said that, the second interesting detail is that every group among the 14 — every one — has a plurality who believe Epstein was murdered. In not a single one do more people favor the suicide theory than murder. The closest any group gets to that, interestingly, is Democrats, who believe Epstein was murdered rather than killed himself to the tune of a 42/39 split. That’s surprising inasmuch as Epstein was known to associate with Trump and it’s Trump, of course, who ultimately oversees the Bureau of Prisons on whose watch Epstein died. I can only guess that Epstein’s even more prominent association with Bill Clinton is what’s driving Democratic ambivalence. Bill’s the one who actually visited Epstein’s island and allegations from righties about a “Clinton Body Count” have followed Bill and Hillary around for ages. Some Dems may be leaning suicide here purely as a rebuke to the Clinton-centered conspiracy theories.

Let’s see what the numbers look like in a few weeks, though. The NYT reported a few days ago that New York City’s medical examiner is confident that Epstein died by suicide, although the official determination is still pending further information as I write this. The details about MCC simply falling down on the job due to overwork and incompetence seem all too plausible according to defense lawyers who know the way the building operates. Maybe it was as simple as Epstein noticing last Saturday night that his guards missed one of the 30-minute checks he was due, then missed another, and then him figuring that this was his chance to hang himself without fear of interruption.

Although, in that case, we’re still left with the mystery of why he was left alone in his cell instead of being saddled with a cellmate, as is supposed to happen with prisoners who were recently on suicide watch.

On the other hand, the fact that Ghislaine Maxwell is allegedly alive and hanging out in Boston at her boyfriend’s house throws an obvious wrench into the whole “international jetset pedos are murdering people who can expose their secrets” theory, no? If Epstein was taken out by some powerful person in order to silence him, the same person had/has every reason to silence Maxwell before she can make a deal with the feds to save her own skin. Hasn’t happened, if you believe the Daily Mail. Why not?

Via Newsbusters, here’s MSNBC’s premier daytime politics show keeping those conspiracy fires burnin’.

The post Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group je-1-300x153 Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so theories The Blog suicide Rasmussen poll murder mcc Jeffrey Epstein hanging conspiracy   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so

Westlake Legal Group je-1 Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so theories The Blog suicide Rasmussen poll murder mcc Jeffrey Epstein hanging conspiracy

I’m shocked.

I mean, I thought the conspiracy faction would be 80 percent or better.

Consider this a moral victory for America’s public institutions, then. Only a plurality has completely lost faith in you!

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 29% of American Adults believe Epstein actually committed suicide while in jail. Forty-two percent (42%) think Epstein was murdered to prevent him from testifying against powerful people with whom he associated…

Among Americans who have been following the story Very Closely, 56% say Epstein was murdered…

Men are more likely than women to think Epstein was murdered. Whites are less suspicious than blacks and other minority adults.

Two interesting facts from the crosstabs (which aren’t publicly available). First, among 14 different demographic groups tested (gender, age, race, party), none has a clear majority of people who believe Epstein was murdered. The closest is 48 percent among blacks, the group that has the most reason historically to doubt the good faith of American institutions. But still, most people are still either in the suicide camp or open to suicide as an explanation.

Having said that, the second interesting detail is that every group among the 14 — every one — has a plurality who believe Epstein was murdered. In not a single one do more people favor the suicide theory than murder. The closest any group gets to that, interestingly, is Democrats, who believe Epstein was murdered rather than killed himself to the tune of a 42/39 split. That’s surprising inasmuch as Epstein was known to associate with Trump and it’s Trump, of course, who ultimately oversees the Bureau of Prisons on whose watch Epstein died. I can only guess that Epstein’s even more prominent association with Bill Clinton is what’s driving Democratic ambivalence. Bill’s the one who actually visited Epstein’s island and allegations from righties about a “Clinton Body Count” have followed Bill and Hillary around for ages. Some Dems may be leaning suicide here purely as a rebuke to the Clinton-centered conspiracy theories.

Let’s see what the numbers look like in a few weeks, though. The NYT reported a few days ago that New York City’s medical examiner is confident that Epstein died by suicide, although the official determination is still pending further information as I write this. The details about MCC simply falling down on the job due to overwork and incompetence seem all too plausible according to defense lawyers who know the way the building operates. Maybe it was as simple as Epstein noticing last Saturday night that his guards missed one of the 30-minute checks he was due, then missed another, and then him figuring that this was his chance to hang himself without fear of interruption.

Although, in that case, we’re still left with the mystery of why he was left alone in his cell instead of being saddled with a cellmate, as is supposed to happen with prisoners who were recently on suicide watch.

On the other hand, the fact that Ghislaine Maxwell is allegedly alive and hanging out in Boston at her boyfriend’s house throws an obvious wrench into the whole “international jetset pedos are murdering people who can expose their secrets” theory, no? If Epstein was taken out by some powerful person in order to silence him, the same person had/has every reason to silence Maxwell before she can make a deal with the feds to save her own skin. Hasn’t happened, if you believe the Daily Mail. Why not?

Via Newsbusters, here’s MSNBC’s premier daytime politics show keeping those conspiracy fires burnin’.

The post Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 56% following case “very closely” think so appeared first on Hot Air.

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First post-debate poll: Almost no change for anyone — except Harris

Westlake Legal Group kh-1 First post-debate poll: Almost no change for anyone — except Harris williamson tulsi gabbard The Blog poll morning consult harris DETROIT buttigieg booker biden Bernie Sanders

Let me toss an idea at you and, if you don’t like it, you can give it right back: The Harris/Gabbard debate exchange on Wednesday is to 2020 what the Rubio/Christie debate exchange was to 2016. In both cases a longshot candidate torpedoed a promising top-tier candidate with real coalition-building potential, paving the way for the frontrunner to secure the nomination.

Nah, doesn’t quite work, I think. For one thing, it’s way too early still. Christie blew up Rubio on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, when the stakes were as high as could be, whereas right now we’re still six months away from the first votes being cast. Harris has time to regroup. And it wasn’t so much Christie who nuked Rubio, really, as Rubio who nuked Rubio. Christie called him out for using canned talking points — and Rubio walked right into the attack by reverting again to canned talking points. It was basically self-sabotage.

The Gabbard/Harris exchange, by contrast, was a true attack. Tulsi filleted her.

Maybe it’s time for Officer Harris to find a new beat.

Follow the last link and you’ll find that every candidate is still within one or two points of where they stood on July 25th — except for Kamala, who’s declined three points to 10 percent. After her big show at the first debate, when she got the better of Biden on busing, she bounced out to 15 percent in the RCP poll of polls. Today she’s down to 11 percent on average and even lower than that in the Morning Consult data above, whereas Joe Biden is aloft with roughly one-third of the overall vote, in line with where he’s been since he got into the race. Harris is slowly headed in the wrong direction.

In fact, a Twitter pal suggested today that Grandpa Joe is starting to look a bit like Mitt Romney 2012. No one loves him and he’s going to take shots in debates, but in the end he may end up as the nominee by default, the “safe choice” who’s broadly acceptable to pretty much everyone. There may be something to that.

Although there’s a now-versus-then difference there too. It’s often forgotten that the 2012 GOP primary saw several flavors of the month, including Herman Cain, zoom past Romney in the polls during the early stages only to fall back to earth. Biden hasn’t experienced anything like that yet. He saw his lead decline after the first debate but now it’s increased again to pre-debate levels. In that sense he might be more like Trump 2016, a guy who takes a bit of damage periodically but shakes it off, and never ends up relinquishing his advantage.

Maybe the biggest news in the new poll, though, are the dogs that didn’t bark. Cory Booker had a strong night on Wednesday taking it to Biden — and has nothing whatsoever to show for it, if you believe Morning Consult. Pete Buttigieg, allegedly a top-tier candidate, remains mired in the five percent range after months of hype (although I suppose any candidate with this sort of dough in the bank can’t be written off). And despite making a splash online and earning praise from the chatterati on both sides for her performance on Tuesday, America’s sweetheart, Marianne Williamson, is still creeping along with just one percent of the vote. Dem primary voters have a much more robust immunity to celebrity kooks than Republican ones do, apparently. At least until Oprah gets in.

In lieu of an exit question, here’s another blast from Marianne’s past. You’ll be hearing about it from the rest of the field if/when she does start to gain traction in polling.

The post First post-debate poll: Almost no change for anyone — except Harris appeared first on Hot Air.

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Income inequality is a big topic for rich Dem candidates, but their audience yawns

Westlake Legal Group EqualSignB-715 Income inequality is a big topic for rich Dem candidates, but their audience yawns The Blog poll gallup Equality economic fairness 2020 Democratic primaries 2020 Democrat debates 2020 Democrat candidates

To hear all the wealthy Democratic candidates for president tell it, economic inequality is a major issue, right up there with other unrealistic proposals like free college and a multi-trillion-dollar government takeover of healthcare.

That message is then multiplied and magnified by mainstream media’s ubiquitous megaphone.

But to hear average Americans talk about income inequality, well, you don’t actually hear much of anything about that. They’re seemingly too busy chasing their own economic dreams to pay much attention to meaningless political primary palaver aimed at a tiny population sliver of even wealthier donors.

Now, here comes a new Gallup Poll designed to measure popular priorities. It’s the regular “most important problem” question that monitors the shifting concerns of average Americans.

Those polling folks have been asking that question off-and-on for eight decades and monthly since the earliest days of this century.

And guess what?

They found hardly anyone cares about income inequality. In this century the average monthly mentions of the rich-and-poor gap has been two percent or less in Gallup surveys.

“Certainly,” the Gallup analysis reports, “this is not a significant top-of-mind concern for Americans and no more of a concern now than it has been in the past.”

Although Democrat candidates who own multiple houses express loud concerns about the income gap, their party’s members told Gallup that inequality clung to only ninth place on their list of important issues.

High above it were far more popular pending problems such as immigration, race relations, healthcare, the environment, healthcare, education and two issues that seem to fit better with Republicans’ list of issues: government and the economy.

The economy has been booming since what’s-his-name and what’s-his-name’s-vice-president-who-now-wants-to-be-president left office in 2017. In fact, the U.S. economy is now going through its longest expansion.

Perhaps you’ve heard Bernie Sanders shout about the need for a more equitable minimum wage of $15 an hour.

This is such a pressing issue that when his own campaign staff pushed to get that $15 minimum, Bernie instead cut their hours. Thereby proving critics’ point that such a pay rate would actually hurt workers more than help.

“Who’s this economy really working for? It’s doing great for a thinner and thinner slice at the top,” says Elizabeth Warren, who pulled down $400,000 for teaching a single class at Harvard.

Let’s see, at the $15 an hour minimum wage, that works out to 26,667 hours of class time, which she never worked.

The post Income inequality is a big topic for rich Dem candidates, but their audience yawns appeared first on Hot Air.

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Quinnipiac: 51% believe Trump is racist

Westlake Legal Group t-14 Quinnipiac: 51% believe Trump is racist Women Trump The Blog suburban racist Quinnipiac poll facilities detention cummings black baltimore

They neglected to ask the key follow-up question: “If you answered yes, are you considering voting for him anyway?”

Another good one would have been, “Can someone be racist if they don’t use racial slurs?”

Lots of interesting splits here, and of course independents are always notable, but the gender divide may be the most interesting.

Westlake Legal Group q1-1 Quinnipiac: 51% believe Trump is racist Women Trump The Blog suburban racist Quinnipiac poll facilities detention cummings black baltimore

White men are -20 on the question. White women are +9. The AP spent some time in suburban neighborhoods this past weekend interviewing women there about Trump’s recent outbursts at figure like Elijah Cummings and the Squad. On the one hand, man-on-the-street interviews touching on race would seem especially prone to social desirability bias, with participants keenly aware that they’re expected to give a particular answer in order to show their own sensitivity. On the other hand, the Quinnipiac numbers are scientific and they are what they are. A majority of white women see racial bias in Trump and they’re a key bloc in the suburban districts that helped Democrats to a new House majority next fall. Whether Trump’s wars with the Squad, Cummings, Al Sharpton, and other minority pols are winners or losers for him electorally may depend on how white women stomach them, but it’s not going well so far if you believe the AP:

In more than three dozen interviews by The Associated Press with women in critical suburbs, nearly all expressed dismay — or worse — at Trump’s racially polarizing insults and what was often described as unpresidential treatment of people. Even some who gave Trump credit for the economy or backed his crackdown on immigration acknowledged they were troubled or uncomfortable lining up behind the president…

“It was mainly when he got into office when my opinion started changing,” said [Emily] West, 26. “Just the way he treats people.”

“I did not think it was going to be as bad as it is — definitely narcissism and sexism, but I did not think it was going to be as bad as it is,” said Kathy Barnes while shopping in the Denver suburb of conservative-leaning Lone Tree. “I am just ashamed to be an American right now.”…

“I don’t think I should say those words in front of my daughter,” [Yael Telgheder] said, her 3-year-old next to her. “To be honest, there are certain things that — he’s a businessman — so I understand the reasons behind them. But all of the disrespect and lies and stuff like that, it’s just too much for me.”

“Trump fatigue” is a real thing, I’m sure. Trump fatigue specifically in the context of him picking fights with minority pols might be a real thing, if not now then eventually. Trump fatigue that’s so intense that people are willing to overlook steady economic growth and roll the dice on a left-wing Democrat is … less of a thing, I’m guessing.

In fact, Quinnipiac also asked voters about impeachment for its new poll. Between the Mueller hearing and the war with the Squad and Cummings, you might expect the majority of Americans who think Trump is racist to be newly eager to oust him. Not so:

Westlake Legal Group q2 Quinnipiac: 51% believe Trump is racist Women Trump The Blog suburban racist Quinnipiac poll facilities detention cummings black baltimore

That doesn’t mean they want to reelect him, but nothing he’s done thus far is a firing offense to a solid 60 percent of Americans. As for whether the fight he’s picked with Cummings is off-the-cuff or strategic, sources tell the Times and WaPo that it’s the former. He’s not following some carefully scripted plan to bait minority pols in order to get working-class whites excited (yet?), he’s annoyed that Cummings’s committee issued subpoenas for texts and emails drafted sent to or from Jared Kushner and Ivanka. He was just lashing out.

Several White House officials expressed agreement during a staff meeting on Monday morning that the president’s attacks were a bad move, according to people informed about the discussion, but they were uncertain who could intervene with him — or if anyone would even dare try.

They privately scoffed at the idea that it was strategy rather than impulse, concluding that any political benefit he might derive by revving up his conservative, largely white base could be offset by alienating more moderate voters in the suburbs of states like Wisconsin and Michigan that he needs to win a second term.

Trump himself told reporters today that there’s no strategy, “zero strategy.” Watch below. And if you have time, skim through the rest of the Quinnipiac data to see how Americans responded to questions about conditions at immigrant detention facilities. Democratic attacks seem to be penetrating, with 51 percent of Americans saying conditions at the facilities are inhumane (just 35 percent disagree), 62 percent saying the feds aren’t doing enough to improve them, and 53 percent saying it’s better to release immigrants if facilities are overcrowded even if it means they won’t show up for their court dates versus 31 percent who say they should be held anyway. Americans prefer catch-and-release to what’s happening now.

The post Quinnipiac: 51% believe Trump is racist appeared first on Hot Air.

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Quinnipiac: Biden bounces back out to a big lead, up 12 points in a month, as Harris fades

Westlake Legal Group jb-4 Quinnipiac: Biden bounces back out to a big lead, up 12 points in a month, as Harris fades warren The Blog sanders rebound Quinnipiac poll harris democrats Black voters biden

FiveThirtyEight noticed last week that, very quietly, Biden was recovering from the polling hit he took after the busing exchange with Kamala Harris at the last debate. Harris had zoomed up after that in some polls, even touching 20 percent in Quinnipiac’s June survey, but the trend didn’t continue. It was Biden who was once again on the rise while Harris dipped a bit.

Now here comes Quinnipiac’s July poll with even clearer evidence of the trend.

What happened?

Westlake Legal Group q1 Quinnipiac: Biden bounces back out to a big lead, up 12 points in a month, as Harris fades warren The Blog sanders rebound Quinnipiac poll harris democrats Black voters biden

Look back to the numbers from June. After a long slide in early July after the first debate, with Harris nearly passing him, Biden’s regained 12 points and now enjoys a bigger lead than he did before. And most of that 12-point surge has come at Harris’s expense. Check this out (“AA” is “African-American”):

A huge number of black voters migrated from Biden to Harris after the busing exchange … and now they appear to have come home to Joe. It’s not just happening in the Quinnipiac poll either. Over at RCP’s poll of polls, Biden has regained nearly all of the lead he enjoyed shortly before the first Democratic debate. In mid-June he stood at 32 percent with Bernie second at 15. Today Biden’s at 31.3 with Elizabeth Warren second at 14.8. Harris, the supposed breakout star of the last debate, is in fourth place at 11 percent — still several points higher than where she was before the busing attack on Biden but by no means threatening Uncle Joe for the lead.

Again, what happened?

Nate Silver speculated last week that the post-debate polls were affected by a burst of enthusiasm from Harris supporters. As that enthusiasm cooled a bit, the polling equilibrium was restored:

[O]ne contributing factor may be nonresponse bias — after a good debate for Harris and a poor one for Biden, for instance, Harris supporters may be more likely to respond to polls and Biden ones less so. I tend to think this phenomenon is a little overstated and that an easier answer is simply that a lot of voters don’t have deep convictions about the race until much later, and so bounce around among whichever candidates have gotten favorable press coverage recently.

The latter explanation about the lack of deep convictions makes more sense to me. Voters liked what they saw of Harris at the debate but they haven’t seen or heard much lately unless they’re so attuned to daily political news that they’re following the rollout of her Medicare for All plans, so they’re back in default mode. If I had to float a theory for why they’re reverting to Biden it’d be pure, clean, simple electability: Uncle Joe blows the field away when Dems are asked who stands the best chance of beating Trump, taking 51 percent of the vote when no one else does better than 10. Every day that Democratic voters are focused on the latest Trump outburst instead of the daily squabbling among Dem candidates is probably a good day for Biden inasmuch as Trump’s antics remind liberals that winning next fall is all that matters, which naturally leads them back to the safest, supposedly most electable choice.

The most frequently recurring narrative about the primary in political media this past week is Biden vowing to get his game face on for the upcoming debate. Literally every four hours or so, some media outlet regurgitates another “no more mister nice guy” piece about Uncle Joe. He’s been taking shots at Harris and Cory Booker too, partly to preview the battle to come on Wednesday night and partly to reassure nervous Biden fans who thought he looked a bit … frail at the first debate that he’s up to the challenge. I hope for his sake that that’s true. Because Philip Klein’s right that he’s staring down the barrel of a “Pawlenty moment” if he wimps out again when he’s face to face with Harris:

For those who need a reminder, Pawlenty was a governor of Minnesota who ran a failed bid for the 2012 Republican nomination. From the get-go, he was hindered by the perception that he was too boring and too much of a nice Midwesterner to survive the brutal world of presidential politics. Seeking to disabuse people of this perception, he used the run up to a summer 2011 debate as an opportunity to attack Romney’s Massachusetts healthcare law that provided the model for Obamacare. In interviews leading up to the debate, he deployed the phrase “Obamneycare” and talked about his sharp elbows from playing hockey. Everything was teed up for Pawlenty to swing at Romney’s biggest vulnerability. Yet when he was given the opportunity to challenge Romney on the debate stage, he totally bungled it. He didn’t merely wiff, he backed off his attack altogether. Pawlenty wouldn’t formally drop out of the race until August, but effectively, his chances were doomed once he blew his chance in the June debate.

Romney analogies usually aren’t good for Harris but she’ll take that one. Exit question: Will Biden wimp out? I think he’ll wimp out.

The post Quinnipiac: Biden bounces back out to a big lead, up 12 points in a month, as Harris fades appeared first on Hot Air.

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This Week’s Democrat Polling in ‘Parks & Rec’ GIFs

Another week, new polling.  In previous weeks, we’ve looked at polling in Taylor Swift lyrics, Archer GIFs, and Arrested Development. This week, Quinnipiac polling and Parks & Rec GIFs.

Let’s see how the democrats are doing.

The Overall Democratic Field

They’re a very cool grip that’s killing it with the young people.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Democrat Polling in ‘Parks & Rec’ GIFs taylor swift Polling poll Parks and Recreation parks and rec kamala harris Joe Biden Front Page Stories Elizabeth Warren democrats democratic democrat Bernie Sanders Arrested Development archer Allow Media Exception 2020

First Place- Joe Biden (34%)

Once again, Uncle Joe comes out on top. The voters seem to like him as much as Leslie Knope does.

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Second Place- Elizabeth Warren (15%)

Well, that’s a huge gap between first and second place. Maybe it’s because she basically painted the murals in Pawnee City Hall. If she doesn’t get a White House, gig, though, I know somebody else who might be hiring.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Democrat Polling in ‘Parks & Rec’ GIFs taylor swift Polling poll Parks and Recreation parks and rec kamala harris Joe Biden Front Page Stories Elizabeth Warren democrats democratic democrat Bernie Sanders Arrested Development archer Allow Media Exception 2020

Third Place- Kamala Harris (12%)

Just a bit behind Warren, we’ve got Kamala Harris. Half of the people she’s put in jail are like:

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Fourth Place- Bernie Sanders (11%)

Just one point behind Harris, we have the man who doesn’t understand math. May I suggest a new campaign slogan?

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BUT WAIT!

“Don’t know” came in at 12%, showing us just how passionate people are about their choices.

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Gallup: Plurality of Dems now favor cash reparations for black Americans despite heavy opposition from public overall

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Every now and then I see a news story about reparations pop up and think, “Why are we talking about this now?” And then I remember, “Oh right — not one but two top-tier Democratic presidential candidates have endorsed the idea, and the Democratic House has already held hearings about it.”

Now here’s a new reason: More rank-and-file Democrats support the idea of cash payments to black Americans than oppose it.

New data from Gallup:

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That data comes with the caveat that not all reparations plans involve direct cash payments to individual people, so maybe other forms would have more support. But cash payments is the purest form of the idea, the one that most people think about when weighing the pros and cons of the policy. And this is the first time I’m aware of that a plurality of Dems — a near-majority, in fact — have landed in favor of it. When HuffPost polled the issue in April, Democrats split 34/37, a near-plurality but a very soft one. Now they’re at 49 percent, likely thanks in part to the attention the issue has received during the presidential primary.

To put that in perspective, per Gallup, Democrats stood at just 25 percent in favor in 2002. The wokening of the party has led to support for reparations nearly doubling in less than 20 years, even as Republicans continue to resist almost unanimously and independents say thumbs down by a two-to-one margin.

Sounds like more good news for Trump’s electoral strategy of using racial grievances to mobilize working-class whites next fall. The more lefties can pressure the Democratic nominee to talk up reparations on the trail, the easier Trump’s task is. But there are two catches. One is that, as in every election, the party nominee will shift from base-pandering to centrist-pandering the moment the primary is safely won. That’s especially likely to be the case with the Democratic nominee next summer, I think, sinceTrump is all-in on a base-only strategy, leaving Dems free to court the center. And lefties are so frantic to oust Trump that they’re likely to be extra-forgiving of sins against wokeness by the nominee in the interest of defeating POTUS. There’ll be no reparations talk from Democrats next summer (although plenty from Trump, to be sure).

The other catch is that, while it’s comforting for righties to believe that white identity politics is the secret sauce needed to win the Rust Belt a second term, it ain’t necessarily so. Racial politics energizes the other side too:

A complementary picture emerges from our data in the 2020 battleground states. Those who strongly approve of Trump — represented by the red bars in the graph below — mostly indicate higher levels of racial resentment…

However, among those who strongly disapprove of Trump in these same states … even more likely voters indicate strongly benevolent attitudes on race and immigration, as indicated by the height of the bars clustered near zero. These are the voters who are likely to be offended by Trump’s racist remarks, perhaps becoming more motivated to turn out on the Democratic side as a result.

Some analysts will say that those who oppose Trump would turn out and vote Democratic regardless of Trump’s racist remarks. But history teaches otherwise. For example, African Americans, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, were less likely to vote in 2016 than 2012.

Turnout matters, and Trump’s record of racist rhetoric may be making some Democrats more likely to vote.

Trump’s rhetoric could also be costing him votes among nonwhites who might otherwise be inclined to support him on economic grounds:

Hard to say where reparations fits into all of that. If Trump’s “go back where you came from” tweets about Ilhan Omar and the Squad is better turnout fuel for lefties than righties, is reparations chatter better turnout fuel for righties than lefties? Gallup’s numbers strongly suggest that it’s more of an electoral liability to Dems than an asset. Both parties may be sabotaging themselves in trying to pander more vigorously to their respects bases on racial lines.

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Fake news: Trump slams Fox News poll showing him trailing Biden badly

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I knew he’d start raving about Fox polls this week. It just took a few days longer than expected.

Imagine believing that Fox News, of all people, would rig a scientific poll to *hurt* Trump. Fox’s polling outfit may be the single most respected arm of FNC within the news business; if they were going to trash their reputation for accuracy to put a thumb on the scale in a poll involving POTUS, obviously it wouldn’t be on his opponent’s side of the scale. I doubt even Trump himself thinks there are shenanigans at work here. This is just something he farted out to signal to fans that they should be officially Mad At Fox for publishing news that’s unhelpful to him, whether or not it’s true.

Tonight on “Hannity”: Which arm of the deep state is my own network’s polling bureau working for?

Not all Fox personnel appreciate the criticism:

We’ll see what Shep has to say at 3 p.m. ET. Oh, and contra POTUS, Fox News pollsters didn’t have Trump losing “BIG” to Hillary in 2016. They had the race Clinton 48, Trump 44. The popular vote eventually shook out at Clinton 48, Trump 46. They were practically spot on in gauging national sentiment. Fortunately for POTUS, national sentiment doesn’t matter in a contest of 50 state elections.

Anyway, Team Biden is enjoying his agony. A Quinnipiac poll recently showed Biden up eight points on Trump in Ohio, a state Trump won by eight. That lead is alarming, if unlikely. Now comes today’s Fox poll:

Biden enjoys the largest lead head-to-head with Trump in Fox’s survey but Bernie Sanders also tops him by six points. Interestingly, the two top-tier women candidates don’t fare as well: Trump leads both Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris by a point. In all likelihood those results are less a measure of each candidate’s strength than they are of name recognition. Biden is by far the most well-known of the four, then Bernie via his 2016 run, and then Warren and Harris. All the poll’s really telling us, I think, is that right now voters are very much willing to swap out Trump for a Democrat whom they know and trust and — importantly — who hasn’t sustained any real damage from opponents yet. Obviously Biden’s 10-point lead here won’t hold. All the numbers really mean is that the race begins with undecideds open-minded about making Trump a one-term president.

Speaking of Biden and damage from opponents, he and his team have been … feisty in their comments about Cory Booker and Kamala Harris this week. The latest:

“You can’t be called the architect of mass incarceration and remain quiet,” a Biden ally said. “That’s cruel and personal. That goes against his entire career. You can’t let people say bullsh*t and not respond to it.”

“The gloves are off,” the ally added. “At this point, you have to punch back when someone attacks your record. People want to see him throw a punch. The president is certainly going to come at him hard, so why not start now?”

“I’m not going to be as polite this time,” Biden told donors on Wednesday of next week’s debate. He’s been jabbing at Booker for his record on civil rights as mayor of Newark and head of its problematic police department, and at Harris for dodging on what Medicare for All would do to private insurance and how she plans to pay for it without hiking middle-class taxes. (“Come on! What is this, is this a fantasy world here?”) My favorite counterpunch, though, is from today’s WaPo, in which Biden allies accuse Harris of having betrayed Biden’s dead son Beau:

“I was prepared for them to come after me but I wasn’t prepared for the person coming at me the way she came at me,” Biden told CNN. “She knew Beau. She knows me.”

Harris and the younger Biden developed a bond in the early 2010s as fellow state attorneys general in California and Delaware, respectively, strategizing on cases and comparing notes as politically ambitious future Democratic stars.

That fostered a connection between Harris and the elder Biden; the former vice president endorsed her 2016 Senate run, and some Democrats saw the pair as a dream 2020 ticket. But now some in Biden’s camp consider Harris’s surprise attack, and her ongoing critique of his civil rights record, a personal breach.

“I don’t pretend to know what’s in the vice president’s head — I wasn’t surprised that someone came after him,” said one longtime friend of Beau’s who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. “But I turned to my wife and said, ‘Beau’s flipping in his grave.’”

Is Harris not supposed to try to win lest it desecrate Beau Biden’s memory somehow? Grandpa Joe has a stranglehold momentarily on black voters:

She needs those voters to win. She figured, quite reasonably, that the only way to get black Democrats to question their support for the first black president’s VP is to challenge his civil-rights credentials. So she hit Biden hard on busing. She’s playing for keeps. And old pro Joe Biden, a veteran of more than 10 state and national campaigns, wants people to believe she’s peeing on Beau Biden’s grave because of it. Yeesh.

Anyway, consider Trump’s complaint about the polling from Fox News — Fox News! — a reminder that he’ll absolutely pronounce the result of next year’s election false/rigged if he loses. There’s no fair-and-square “I got beat” outcome here in the offing.

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