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Westlake Legal Group > poll (Page 6)

Poll: Plurality of Republicans believe the Mueller report totally exonerated Trump on obstruction of justice

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It doesn’t surprise me that Republicans who say they’ve “watched a lot of coverage” of the report are more, rather than less, likely to believe Trump was totally exonerated on obstruction than the average Republican is even though it’s not true. Odds are, they’re watching Fox. And not the Shep/Chris Wallace dayside newsy hours of Fox either.

It does surprise me that Republicans who say they’ve read parts of the report are also more likely than the average Republican to believe it. Probably the single most famous line from the report’s 400+ pages is, “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state.” Mueller went to the trouble of repeating that line on television a month later at his press conference as an extra nudge to House Democrats and the public that they should be troubled by the obstruction findings.

Did righties forget to read the obstruction section?

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The entire reason House Democrats are so eager to have Mueller testify this month is because they’re aware of this disjunction between what Mueller said and what people, especially Republicans, believe. Only 19 percent of Americans in this poll admitted to having read all or most of the report. If you want Mueller’s conclusions to penetrate, they have to be repackaged as video clips and transmitted to the public via the media circus that will attend his testimony on July 17. Or so Dems hope. I’m skeptical that it’ll change much.

As to why Republicans might be confused about Mueller’s “no exoneration” verdict on obstruction, there are different possibilities:

1. Barr did exonerate Trump on obstruction in his summary of Mueller’s report, of course. Maybe GOPers were treating this question less as a test of what Mueller said than what the DOJ ultimately decided as an institution.

2. Some may not have paid close enough attention to the question to notice they were being asked about obstruction, not collusion. If all they heard was “Did Mueller exonerate Trump?”, they may have focused on the collusion part of the report in answering “yes.”

3. Maybe out-and-out disinformation from partisan media sites convinced them that Mueller really did clear Trump on obstruction, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

4. Trump repeated the “total exoneration” talking point a lot in the first few days after Barr’s summary was released. Whether that message convinced Republicans and colored their impressions of what’s in the report or whether they’re merely parroting Trump’s point back to pollsters to be good soldiers, it’s the Trump factor at work. Relatedly, when asked if they thought Russia interfered in the election — the most unambiguous finding in Mueller’s report — Republicans split just 51/49. “What’s the best answer for Trump?” will obviously weigh on partisans’ minds when they answer questions about this.

Is there a term, by the way, to describe when someone gives a pollster the answer that their party would want them to give, whether or not that’s their honest opinion? There are all sorts of reasons why people sometimes aren’t honest with pollsters; a famous one is “social desirability bias.” We live in an age, though, in which public awareness of polling and its ability to drive the news and influence political parties’ strategy has probably never been greater. Favorable polls are touted routinely in activist political media on both sides. The president tweets often (and selectively) about his own polls and has encouraged supporters to disregard unfavorable polls as fake news. The polls famously failed to detect Trump’s looming victory in 2016 even though they got close to predicting Hillary’s popular vote win. The more that Americans see polls overtly as tools of partisan information warfare, the more likely they are, it seems to me, to answer poll questions in line with what their parties want them to say — what they’re “supposed” to say — than what the might really think. That might explain the outsized GOP number here claiming that Mueller totally exonerated Trump on obstruction. As well as why Trump has nearly unanimous job approval and disapproval in polls of Republicans and Democrats, respectively.

The post Poll: Plurality of Republicans believe the Mueller report totally exonerated Trump on obstruction of justice appeared first on Hot Air.

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Wow: CNN poll shows Biden dropping 10 points, Harris climbing to second place after debates

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You realize what this means, don’t you?

For the first time in recorded history, the conventional wisdom on Twitter was … correct. Harris really did vault herself into the top tier with two impressive hours on TV. And Uncle Joe really did shoot himself in the foot with two bad ones.

There are no longer any certainties in political life in Trump era, including the certainty that the online chatterati is always, always wrong.

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Harris crushed the debates, with 41 percent saying she did the best job (Warren was second at 13 percent). She’s also now the candidate whom voters are most likely to want to hear more about. “Harris and Biden are now about even in support among self-identified Democrats, white voters, younger voters, nonwhite women and those who tuned in to watch the debates,” notes CNN, adding that “She outpaces him significantly among liberals and whites with college degrees.” The one bright spot for Uncle Joe? Ironically, it’s black voters:

I’m not sure that counts as a bright spot, actually. Thirty-six percent is worse than he tends to do with African-Americans in polling, and Harris is already in striking distance among the group after just one debate. How many of those black Biden supporters are still hanging around in the expectation that her performance last week was a fluke, ready to be convinced and jump ship for Team Kamala if she beats up Biden again at the second debate? The suspicion about Uncle Joe’s support has always been that it’s soft, based largely on name recognition. Now here’s a poll suggesting that that suspicion was correct.

Biden fans can console themselves with the fact that he’s still seen as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump by a wide (30-point) margin. That’s no small thing when Dems are spoiling to find someone, anyone, who can end the Trump era for them. It’s also true that there have been several other post-debate polls and all of them have been better for Biden than this one. He did no worse than 28 percent in those and enjoyed double-digit leads in every one. If CNN’s data is right then the race has been upended and Biden’s at dire risk of entering the second debate in second or even third place. If the other polls are right, Biden’s still comfortably the frontrunner. Just not nearly as comfortably as before, and probably one more bad debate away from real trouble. If he doesn’t ace the next one, lord only knows how many rich donors will decide they no longer want to keep pumping money into his campaign tires to keep them inflated.

One more data point from the CNN crosstabs, just because:

Westlake Legal Group 2 Wow: CNN poll shows Biden dropping 10 points, Harris climbing to second place after debates warren The Blog poll harris democratic debate CNN busing biden

Fifty-six percent think it should be the government’s job to provide a national health insurance program for Americans, a significant number for Dems. But just 37 percent of that number wants private insurance flushed down the toilet, which means a mere 21 percent of all Americans are for a true Bernie-style Medicare for All plan.

Of course, if we pass on MFA for now and institute a public option instead, that public option will eventually undercut private insurance to the point that true MFA will become viable. Which means all we’re really debating given these numbers is whether to torch America’s private industry in a big bonfire up front or to wait until it’s creaky and starting to collapse on its own.

Exit question: What happened to Pete Buttigieg? He’s at zero percent among black voters and just four percent among Dems generally. That’s a not a fluke result either. All of the post-debate polls have Buttigieg between four and six percent overall. Not quite top tier anymore, assuming he ever was.

The post Wow: CNN poll shows Biden dropping 10 points, Harris climbing to second place after debates appeared first on Hot Air.

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The post office faces fiscal doom, though it’s the most popular federal agency

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Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.

The unofficial motto of the U.S. Postal Service does not say anything about persevering through a profound agency financial crisis. But according to recent congressional testimony by Postmaster General Megan Brennan, the agency will run out of money within five years.

Don’t hold your breath on even Band-aid fixes from Congress, at least until that deadline looms much closer.

Despite pervasive electronic communications and all the now competing forms of delivery services, that would be a national economic calamity.

Nothing could replace a service that delivers in excess of 150 billion pieces of mail a year — 47 percent of the entire world’s mail —  at various rates that allow many businesses to ship and sell.

The effects on commerce would be huge, not to mention the sudden unemployment of in excess of 615,000 workers, the country’s third largest labor force after the federal government and Walmart.

Benjamin Franklin didn’t invent everything, although with the Franklin stove, lightning rod, street lamps, bifocals, swim fins and other devices, it sometimes seems that way. He was appointed postmaster general in Philadelphia way back in 1737 well before the Revolution.

Since he was in office on July 4th, 1776, Franklin became the new nation’s first postmaster general, surveying postal roads, setting postal rates, assigning riders to carry the mail day and night. He had an idea that for an extra penny people could have letters delivered from their postal boxes.

The Founding Fathers deemed a post office so important to the commerce and identity of a developing nation that it delivered mail seven days a week until 1912, when Sunday delivery ultimately ran afoul of Protestant ministers, who felt it was a Sabbath sacrilege.

Thanks to a new deal with Amazon, Sunday package deliveries resumed six years ago which turned out to be a profitable sideline that helps cover losses from first-class mail.

Despite the Postal Service’s chronically recurring financial crises, the Gallup folks just discovered the Postal Service remains easily the most popular agency, albeit a quasi-federal one.

Three-quarters of Americans (74 percent) say the Postal Service does an excellent or good job, ahead of the Secret Service (69 percent), the Centers for Disease Control (64 percent) and the CIA and NASA, both at 60 percent.

Democrats rank the post office as their top agency, while Republicans put it at No. 3 behind the Secret Service and CDC.

The post The post office faces fiscal doom, though it’s the most popular federal agency appeared first on Hot Air.

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Hoo boy: Bernie Sanders trails Elizabeth Warren by more than 20 points in poll of MoveOn members

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Is this a big deal? It feels like a big deal, but I’m not confident enough in my knowledge of the fine ideological distinctions between various lefty groups to gauge how big. My sense of the average MoveOn member is that they’re firmly left of the average Democrat but not quite so far left as Bernie’s core DSA base. That is, I think with MoveOn you get a mix of far-left progressives and left-leaning liberals, overall a group that’s closer to Bernieville than a Joe Biden voter will be but not quite ready for Full Communism.

Which is, come to think of it, very fertile ground for Elizabeth Warren’s “socialism lite” candidacy.

Her lead here looks like Joe Biden’s lead among the general Democratic electorate.

Bernie Sanders, the great progressive hope, is in danger of being passed by Joe Biden in a poll of activist-minded lefties. What?

He’s not even the top second choice of MoveOn members. Nor is he the second-place second choice. Nor the third. He’s fourth, behind Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg. W-w-what?

There’s no good news for him in the early states either. The closest he gets to first place among MoveOn voters is in Nevada, where he’s nearly 18 points off of Warren’s pace.

Berniebros will doubtless note that this poll isn’t scientific and claim that MoveOn is notoriously a collection of neoliberal cucks whose commitment to letting workers own the means of production has always been suspect. Even so, this is a blockbuster for Warren given how much she’s improved since the last MoveOn poll in December. She was at … 6.4 percent at the time, good for fifth place. “MoveOn-types should regard her warmly,” I wrote in December, marveling at how poorly she was doing. She’s a progressive, she’s got a lot of (bad) plans — at a minimum she should be competitive for first place with this group. Since then, she’s gained 30 points at the expense of an enormous field that includes multiple senators and a former two-term VP.

In hindsight, maybe my assumption that the average MoveOn member follows politics more closely than the average Democrats was wrong, or at least overstated. It could be that Warren’s policy-palooza rollout of the last few months has been a revelation to many of these people, who may have scarcely noticed her before as a Senate backbencher. Look back to the December poll, in fact, and you’ll find that the leader at the time was, ah, Beto O’Rourke, who’s slipped from 15.6 percent at the time to just 1.8 percent(!) today. The optimistic read on that for Team Warren is that, now that lefties have gotten a good look at her, she’s taken off and there’s no going back. The pessimistic read is that MoveOn-types may be faddish about whom they support and have moved from Beto to Warren simply because she’s had the most positive media buzz lately. If that buzz moves on to Pete Buttigieg, say, MoveOn-ers may move with it.

But I don’t know. Daily Kos takes straw polls regularly of its own readership and they’re seeing the same Warren surge that MoveOn is. The last result, published two weeks ago: Warren 34, Sanders 25, Biden 12, Buttigieg 10. Now you know why Bernie resorted to that desperate mega-pander yesterday promising total forgiveness of all student-loan debt. One-upping Warren on her policy proposals by promising even steeper giveaways may be the only way to claw back some of the votes he’s lost to her. If he can turn the left’s mini-primary into a referendum on who’s the purest progressive ideologue — which is Bernie’s entire pitch, let’s face it — then he’s competitive. If he can’t then he’s an also-ran.

The post Hoo boy: Bernie Sanders trails Elizabeth Warren by more than 20 points in poll of MoveOn members appeared first on Hot Air.

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Acceptance of LGBT Sinking Among the Youth, and It’s Obvious Why

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Despite decades of effort by the LGBT community to push acceptance, sometimes to the point of force, a recent poll found that approval among the younger generation is on the decline.

According to USA Today, a new Harris poll taken on behalf of GLAAD released on Monday showed that a significant decline has occurred in terms of how those aged 18 to 34 feel about the LGBT community:

The number of Americans 18 to 34 who are comfortable interacting with LGBTQ people slipped from 53% in 2017 to 45% in 2018 – the only age group to show a decline, according to the annual Accelerating Acceptance report. And that is down from 63% in 2016.

Driving the dilution of acceptance are young women whose overall comfort levels plunged from 64% in 2017 to 52% in 2018, says the survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of LGBTQ advocacy group GLAAD.

“We count on the narrative that young people are more progressive and tolerant,” John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll, told USA TODAY. “These numbers are very alarming and signal a looming social crisis in discrimination.”

GLAAD president and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis attributed the fall to the fact that the “newness” of non-conformity is causing this “erosion.”

“This newness they are experiencing could be leading to this erosion. It’s a newness that takes time for people to understand. Our job is to educate about non-conformity,” she said.

However, both Ellis and Gerzema agree that the toxicity of the culture has lead to children rejecting the LGBT message according to USA Today:

The young are bombarded by hate speech on social platforms from viral videos to “mean tweets,” Gerzema said. “Our toxic culture is enveloping young people. It instills fear, alienation, but also permissibility” that could sway “impressionable” young minds on what is acceptable.

And there is a more menacing side, Ellis said. “We are seeing a stark increase in violence in the community.” GLAAD has documented more than 40 incidents of LGBTQ hate violence since Jan. 1.

That’s definitely one theory, but I have a different and likely more accurate one.

Among the population being pressured to conform and capitulate to the LGBT community is the youth. They’re constantly subjected to messaging, told they’re bigots and homophobes if they don’t, and are often deplatformed for bringing up even reasonable and nuanced arguments against LGBT agendas.

It’s all being shoved down their throats without their consent. Take for instance this strip/drag show that took place at a library where a drag queen took off a skirt and dancing to a song that ended with expletives. According to College Fix, teens were meant to see it, but the youngest people in the crowd couldn’t have been more than ten. College Fix also reported that after this performance, some moms were forcibly escorted out of the room with the help of police.

At this same location, they also handed out things like condoms and penis shaped sex documents to children.

Tack onto that the crackdowns being brought on by corporations due to the strongarming occurring by or on behalf of the LGBT community. A perfect example is the recent dust-up between conservative comedian Steven Crowder and Vox’s Carlos Maza, which resulted in YouTube punishing a deluge of websites for their content. They even adopted a policy of punishing those who don’t break rules but may seem controversial due to their opinions.

Add to that the in-your-face kink that LGBT activists want on full display at places like pride parades, and even urge that children be there to see it. They want to force it into the locker rooms and make you deal with it in sports.

The LGBT activists invade your school, workplace, and sometimes your home in order to force their agenda onto you, and then they wonder why the youth are turning away.

As I’ve written before, younger people, especially Generation Z, are more immune to the pressures of political correctness than previous generations have been. They don’t feel the need to pull punches and seem to be able to quickly embrace reality over fiction at a far greater pace than those older than them, even if that reality runs contrary to mainstream narratives.

Right now the mainstream narrative being thrust on society, especially during Pride Month, is that “everyone accepts everything the LGBT community does and says or else.” The younger generations seem to be shrugging and saying “no” at a greater rate. They’ve either had it with the activists on their campus, or the older ones are done with the threats against their professional lives or their own children if capitulation doesn’t happen.

It should be noted that this isn’t likely due to the spread of toxicity, it’s more likely due to the spread of resistance against an activist community that has pushed too hard, and is now getting pushed back. It’s not anti-LGBT sentiment that’s causing the problem, it’s pro-LGBT activism.

The post Acceptance of LGBT Sinking Among the Youth, and It’s Obvious Why appeared first on RedState.

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Democrats now say they have too many Democrats running

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It took them a little longer than other observers to catch on. But Democrats have decided they have too many presidential candidates running for the White House this time. Way too many.

Twenty-four at last count.

If you want, you can see 20 of them on-stage for two solid hours each Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

Unseen those nights are four other wannabe Democrat presidents — a 20 percent larger field — who didn’t qualify for these events, according to the Democratic National Committee’s low bar for admission.

President Trump and the Republican National Committee, of course, are delighted. The more Democrats fighting and the longer they fight, the shorter time it leaves for that party to unite next year behind the final pick.

So, the merrier it would be for the GOP, which has one realistic candidate to focus on and raise money for from Day One.

There is a converse view, of course, that a large, diverse field competing will produce the best candidate. You can judge the diversity of views yourself on NBC starting tomorrow.

Ask Republicans about large fields; they had 17 in 2016, which guaranteed none would obtain majority support in the primaries. So, it’s quite possible Democrats too will select an unlikely nominee to run against the unlikely 2016 GOP nominee.

For the moment, Democrats are focused on offering more freebies to primary voters, despite wide agreement that their real goal is ousting Trump.

The newest Hill-HarrisX survey found nearly three-quarters of Democrats and Democrat-leaners agree there are too many presidential candidates. Eighty-eight percent of voters over 50 concurred. Sixteen percent said the field was like Goldilocks’ porridge, just about right.

Twelve percent, quite possibly smoking something, said the party needs more candidates.

A Des Moines Register poll in early June found 79 percent of likely caucus-goers wanted some candidates to drop out. So far, the collective answer has been, “You first.”

This week’s debates are crucial for much of the field. Although each individual’s time on-camera will be short, it will give them valuable national exposure and a priceless opportunity to plug their website to millions of viewers.

The second quarter of fundraising ends this weekend. So, time is short to stay in the running as media judge political support now by millions of dollar$.

After being accused of putting its thumb on the scale to favor Hillary Clinton last time, the DNC set low levels of qualification this time. But the criteria tightens for the third and fourth sets of debates come September and October.

Then, every debate participant must have at least two percent support in at least four polls (twice the current level).

And they must certify their campaigns got donations from a minimum 130,000 individuals and a minimum 400 individual donors in at least 20 states. That’s twice the current number of total donors.

Of course, none of this prohibits candidates from continuing to campaign. It just cuts off their national TV exposure, which will choke off money.

The post Democrats now say they have too many Democrats running appeared first on Hot Air.

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Americans worried over level of harsh public talk, blame guess-Who

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President Trump relishes turmoil, especially if he creates it. It keeps opponents off-balance, keeps his own staff on high alert and keeps the attention on him.

But exactly 71 weeks before Americans render a verdict on renewing  Trump’s Oval Office lease comes a new poll revealing that such turmoil displayed through divisive and harsh political discourse is concerning an awful lot of fellow citizens.

Elections, of course, are about dividing a body politic into Them and Us. Trump is very good at that. And he’s clearly not the only politician to talk harshly these days. See name-calling House impeachanados for prime examples.

But the president is the most prominent public speaker — and tweeter. So, he possesses the loudest voice.

Trump has many accomplishments to tout, including the economy, stock market, record low unemployment especially among historically struggling segments, rebuilding the military and crushing the ISIS caliphate, as promised.

Moderating the rhetoric would force more attention on Trump’s fulfilled promises, inviting doubtful and crucial voters among swing independents to swing his way.

Trump’s remaining staff probably isn’t up to telling him. But Trump has become such an astute politician in many ways he might want to take note of these new findings and dial down the rhetoric a couple notches, for his own reelection’s sake.

Here are some of the major findings in the Pew Research Center’s wide-ranging survey of attitudes on public discourse and political speech from among 10,170 adults:

  • “Large majorities say the tone and nature of political debate in the United States has become more negative in recent years – as well as less respectful, less fact-based and less substantive.”
  • Nearly eight-in-ten feel “heated and aggressive” language by public officials makes violence more likely.
  • Everyday conversations among friends, acquaintances and co-workers have become “stressful and frustrating.”
  • Fifty-five percent say Trump is responsible for a decline in the nature and tone of political debate; only 24 percent say he’s improved it.
  • Trump’s comments make 76 percent feel concerned, 70 percent confused, 69 percent embarrassed and — this one is important when you vote on a repeat performance — 67 percent say his comments are exhausting.
  • Perhaps not surprising for a reality TV star and producer, 54 percent say his comments are sometimes entertaining.

The post Americans worried over level of harsh public talk, blame guess-Who appeared first on Hot Air.

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Poll: Facial recognition technology gaining acceptance

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So how do you feel about the government using facial recognition technology? I don’t think I’ve ever written a single column on this subject without plenty of folks – particularly libertarians – getting up in arms over it. You see so many articles screaming about digital privacy that it’s easy to believe that the concept is almost universally shunned. But what if they told you that it would get you through the airport and to the gate more quickly?

Ah, suddenly there’s a motivating factor. And a recent survey highlighted at NextGov seems to indicate that opposition to this technology is actually a minority opinion.

One in three Americans do not support the government using facial recognition to boost security and speed at airports—but most do—according to a new study from travel booking site Reservations.com.

The Homeland Security Department has been rolling out the emerging tech at airports across the nation through its Biometric Exit program and a recently unveiled plan to implement facial recognition technology on almost all departing air passengers by 2023.

“Since facial recognition technology has rapidly expanded in airports the last few years, we wanted to get perspectives on the growing use of the technology,” Joseph Robison, a representative of Reservations.com told Nextgov. “We conducted this survey because we’re interested in keeping a pulse on travelers’ experiences and frustrations.”

So it breaks down with 32.5% opposing facial recognition and 42% supporting it. Almost 25% said they had no opinion either way. But it’s worth noting the wording of the question that was asked in the poll. “Agree or disagree: I’m ok with the government using facial recognition technology at airports to improve security and boarding speed.”

They’re making an important distinction here because they’re not just asking about the use of the technology in general. They’re asking people about a specific use at airports with the intended results of more readily spotting terrorists while speeding up your passage through TSA. That’s some serious incentive to at least consider it.

I’d be interested to see how the results would play out if they asked about the same sort of cameras and software being placed in the public square, with local, municipal and state police having access to it. Perhaps there’s more support there than I would have imagined, but I still have to think it would be a lower number. And it’s not as if there aren’t still problems with these algorithms. As we’ve noted here multiple times, Amazon’s version (Rekognition) did horribly in independent testing, only being able to correctly identify white males on a regular basis.

Still, when it comes to airports and the TSA, I don’t think we’ll wind up having much say in the matter. Plans are already in place and the government has a target of having facial recognition software in use at all American airports within five years. So it’s probably a case of either getting used to it or giving up on flying.

The post Poll: Facial recognition technology gaining acceptance appeared first on Hot Air.

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End-run on Electoral College gains, but Americans don’t like it

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It doesn’t really matter how you or other Americans feel about substituting the presidential popular vote total for the Electoral College with a constitutional amendment.

It’s not going to happen. Live with it.

But still the folks over at Gallup keep asking that old question — and a new one. It’s a hot topic since what’s-her-name won the popular vote in 2016 — 48.2 to 46.1 percent with a pathetic 55.7 percent voter turnout.

However, her fellow New Yorker Donald J. Trump easily took the Electoral College with 57 percent — 304 to 227. So, he’s President of the United States. And now he’s setting about doing it again.

In its latest survey, Gallup found continuing support among adult Americans for basing their presidential selections on popular vote totals — 55 percent wanting to change the Constitution to accomplish that and 43 percent opposing.

That gambit is an ancient one that came closest back in the early 1970s when the House overwhelmingly approved the idea and President Nixon said he’d sign it. But those old fogeys in the Senate killed the plan with a filibuster.

Even if all of Washington’s apparatus had passed the amendment, it would have taken three-quarter of the states’ legislatures also approving. Can you realistically see 38 of our beloved 50 states agreeing on anything these days, let alone during the Vietnam War?

So, proponents of change are taking another line of attack to undermine the Founding Fathers’ carefully-engineered plan that guaranteed the most populous states would not dominate the others.

They’re going state-by-state with what they’re calling the National Popular Vote Interstate Company, or NPVIC.

They’re getting state legislatures to sign on and agree to cast their Electoral College votes for whomever wins the national popular vote for president, regardless of how citizens in that state vote. In effect, overruling that state’s voters.

Hillary Clinton likes the idea. And so, so far, do 14 states and the District of Columbia. The compact requires that once the approving states’ electoral votes total 270, the number to elect a president, the compact would take effect.

The current total approving is 189 with other states still pondering.

Nowadays, Gallup is asking about this compact’s end-run around the Constitution. It found that 52 percent do not like the idea, while 45 percent do.

Either way, it won’t have anything to do with 2020.

The post End-run on Electoral College gains, but Americans don’t like it appeared first on Hot Air.

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Hoo boy: Two-thirds of Dems think they’d be able to keep their current insurance after Medicare For All passes

Westlake Legal Group m Hoo boy: Two-thirds of Dems think they’d be able to keep their current insurance after Medicare For All passes The Blog poll plans medicare for all kaiser insurance Health employer Bernie Sanders

You would think the term “Medicare For All” would be a clue, but no.

Next time a progressive shows you a poll “proving” that Americans want single-payer, inform him or her that Americans quite literally don’t know what they’re talking about.

Which is another way of saying that we may have to enact socialism in order to find out what’s in it:

Westlake Legal Group k Hoo boy: Two-thirds of Dems think they’d be able to keep their current insurance after Medicare For All passes The Blog poll plans medicare for all kaiser insurance Health employer Bernie Sanders

The same poll found that Americans do understand that taxes will go up after Medicare For All passes and that private insurance would no longer be the “primary” way Americans get coverage. But they seem to have convinced themselves that private insurance will still be around, there if you need it in case you don’t like the new government program. Imagine their surprise when President Bernie sits them down for a national heart-to-heart in 2021.

This isn’t a fluke result either, notes HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn. A separate poll conducted a few weeks ago found the same confusion:

Westlake Legal Group n-1 Hoo boy: Two-thirds of Dems think they’d be able to keep their current insurance after Medicare For All passes The Blog poll plans medicare for all kaiser insurance Health employer Bernie Sanders

In both surveys Republicans are better informed about this ostensibly bread-and-butter Democratic issue than Democrats are. I think it’s because righties were primed by the ObamaCare debate 10 years ago to fear single-payer more than liberals were primed to welcome it. The Republican attack on O-Care was that it was the first step towards an eventual total government takeover of the health insurance industry, a lurch towards eliminating all forms of private insurance. And so it was; look where we are now. To mainstream liberals, though, O-Care was sold as a de facto rejection of single-payer: Not only would the new exchanges showcase plans offered by private insurers, there wouldn’t even be a “public option” plan run by the government to compete with them. No wonder they assume that the new Democratic proposal, Medicare For All, will also contain some sort of private insurance option.

That is, when they hear “Medicare For All” I think they’re thinking of the public option. You get to drop your private insurance and switch to Medicare if you wish, and if you don’t, no problem. If you like your plan, you can keep your plan, as a famous man once said. It was a lie then and it’s a *big* lie under MFA.

Democratic voters may also be confused by the sheer cacophony of voices chattering at them about health care. On the right, the message is clear — the left wants socialism. On the left, with 20+ candidates running for president, they have a spectrum of health-care proposals to sift through. Bernie wants Medicare For All; Warren has been cagier, endorsing the goal but less certain about the means; Buttigieg doesn’t see why Medicare For All requires an end to private insurance; Biden merely wants a public option added to ObamaCare. If you’re a casual voter who broadly supports the goal of universal health care, good luck parsing all of that hair-splitting to arrive at the “true meaning” of Medicare For All. Many of them probably default to the seductive but erroneous assumption that the entire party wants to stick with ObamaCare as the baseline — they all fought so hard together for it in 2010, after all! — and add some tweaks as needed. That’s absolutely not the case as you drift further left from Biden towards Bernie ideologically, of course, but as I say, many of these people are casual voters who don’t pay close attention to ideological squabbles. And health care is complicated!

By the way, I’m probably wrong to say that the health-care message on the right is “clear.” It was clear: The left wants socialism, and don’t bother to ask us about our alternative. Thanks to Trump, it’s no longer so clear.

Senate Republicans, defending 22 seats next year, thought they had put ObamaCare repeal behind them when they told Trump earlier this year that they have no intention of acting on a health care overhaul before the election.

But Trump threw the issue back at them in an interview with ABC News that aired Sunday, saying his administration will unveil “something terrific” to overhaul the nation’s health care system “in a month.” He argued that action is needed because “ObamaCare has been a disaster.”…

“All the members of Congress thought it had subsided and hope that it continues to be subsided,” one senior GOP aide said.

“We don’t actually agree with each other on what replacement should be, which means we don’t have a replacement that Republicans can unite around,” added the aide, who called Trump’s remarks a “political gift for Democrats.”

I don’t know why Trump wants to float a plan of his own right now knowing that (a) Pelosi can and will block anything he offers and (b) as the data above demonstrates, the public is ripe for a backlash to utopian left-wing Medicare For All. If the election becomes a referendum on a total government takeover of health care, that’s a good fight for Trump. If instead it’s a choice between Medicare For All and some Republican plan that’s cobbled together under pressure and likely to provide less robust protections for preexisting conditions than O-Care does, that’s not a good fight. Remember, health care was a core message for Dems last fall in House races and they gained 40 seats because of it. To this day, Pelosi is avoiding impeachment because it will distract from Democrats talking about health care, knowing that her party is usually favored by voters on that issue. I don’t know why Trump wants to help them by steering the national conversation in that direction. Neither do Senate Republicans.

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