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Gallup: Immigration Now Top Overall Problem

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Central American migrants sit on top of the border wall on the beach in San Diego during a gathering of migrants living on both sides of the border, Sunday, April 29, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

New Gallup polling finds that Immigration is now considered the “most important problem” facing the U.S. In this July poll 27% identify immigration as the most important U.S. problem. That surpasses the record 22% naming immigration as the top problem in Gallup’s June polling:

 The issue edged out the government, which has been a fixture at or near the top of the list throughout the latter part of the Obama administration and the Trump administration.

Race relations or racism (7%) and healthcare (7%) are the only other two issues to receive as many as 5% of mentions this month.

There was the usual partisan divide with 42% of Republicans, 20% of independents and 20% of Democrats mentioning immigration as the nation’s top problem.

The poll was conducted July 1-12, 2019 and has a margin of sampling error of ±3%.

The Gallup polling comes as Democrats were warned that the Democrats’ open border policy cedes the “rule of law” ground to Republicans and creates “the false dichotomy of America as either a nation of immigrants or a nation of laws”—making the party and its candidates appear soft on enforcement. A note to the Liberal think tank the Center for American Progress, which issued the warning, it is not a false dichotomy. Nor is it just an appearance. Rather it is the direct product of the Socialist Democrats’ decision to support open borders and special benefits like free health care for illegal aliens.

The Liberal warning was issued as President Trump continues his efforts to reform the immigration system that is riddled with “major loopholes.” As president Trump said during his reelection campaign rally in North Carolina last Tuesday:

We’ve got to straighten out our immigration laws. You know, in a very short period of time, if the Democrats would give us a few votes, we could solve the immigration problem and it would be so great.

We almost accomplished immigration reform in 2006. Senate Republicans reached a compromise on the status of millions of illegals in the U.S. The compromise would have treated illegal aliens differently based upon the length of time they have been in the U.S. But According to the Associated Press and Eleanor Clift the Democrats, led by Sen. Schumer, wanted a political advantag0e more than they wanted immigration reform.

The post Gallup: Immigration Now Top Overall Problem appeared first on RedState.

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Rassmussen Poll ShOne-Thirdhird of Democrats Believe Criticism of POC Members is Racism; Fewer People Believe Them as a Result

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CBS News

New poll shows the “racist” charge in not simply policy, but ingrained in the party.

It stands to reason that when a party uses identity politics as its core belief system then the positioning of every issue as being racial will be held by growing numbers of members. Following a week where the charge of racism has been levelled at the president regarding his comments about the select members of Congress the discussion has been pointed, and inflammatory.

While Trump’s tweet-storm was ill-advised (or, more accurately, the result of no advisory on his account) the automatic charge of “racism” has raised some questions. Since he had named no one specific – he alluded to a group – and other aspects of his comments can also be parsed, the question would be, “To what race was he being intolerant?” Is merely having disagreeable words with select members enough to be constituted as “racist”?

For a large number of Democrats that answer is “Yes”. Rassmussen just conducted a poll and the returns showed that a significant segment of party members consider merely being critical is enough to earn the accusation of intolerance.

Voters are closely divided over whether President Trump is a racist, but one-in-three Democrats think it’s racism any time a white politician criticizes a politician of color.

Note the significance here; it is not racially-charged language itself, but any criticism is considered racist. This reflects on what we have been seeing play out in the media for months now since the mid-term election. Anytime policy ideas have been challenged, or some of the many factual errors which these freshman members have discussed are pointed out there has been a knee-jerk reaction that it is rooted in racism, or sexism – or even both.

Tellingly, within this same poll, it is seen that this tactic is not having the intended effect.It is important to note, the poll was conducted on July 15-16, the days following Trump’s tweets and right in the midst of the media firestorm. Despite that emotionally-charged environment the number of people who believed Trump to be racist actually dropped in comparison to a previous poll with similar questioning.

In the poll 47% of respondents believed the President to be racist, which was down 3% from a similar poll held in January. Additionally, more believed the President is not racist (49%) and those believing the use of racism is being done for political gain rose by 6% from that earlier survey. These are the revealing metrics in this poll.

Understand, the respondents were asked about these issues during the Democrat and media effort to establish Trump’s words were deeply racist. Yet while they loudly trying to sell the nation on this notion the result was fewer people believing he is racist, and more people seeing this as a purely political effort to smear him. That is a detail very few in the media are going to be pointing out.

The post Rassmussen Poll ShOne-Thirdhird of Democrats Believe Criticism of POC Members is Racism; Fewer People Believe Them as a Result appeared first on RedState.

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Surprise! Illegal immigration deeply unpopular with voters … in Mexico

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Nearly two-thirds of voters consider illegal immigrants a burden. Fifty-five percent of them want all illegal immigrants kicked out of the country. Is this a poll from border states, or states won by Donald Trump in 2016? Actually, these numbers come from a survey conducted by the Washington Post and Reforma, a leading daily in Mexico.

Donald Trump may not be popular in Mexico, but his immigration policy seems to be:

Mexicans are deeply frustrated with immigrants after a year of heightened migration from Central America through the country, according to a survey conducted by The Washington Post and Mexico’s Reforma newspaper.

More than 6 in 10 Mexicans say migrants are a burden on their country because they take jobs and benefits that should belong to Mexicans. A 55 percent majority supports deporting migrants who travel through Mexico to reach the United States.

Those findings defy the perception that Mexico — a country that has sent millions of its own migrants to the United States, sending billions of dollars in remittances — is sympathetic to the surge of Central Americans. Instead, the data suggests Mexicans have turned against the migrants transiting through their own country, expressing antipathy that would be familiar to many supporters of President Trump north of the border.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador had to get pushed into a crackdown, but from these numbers it looks like Trump did him a favor. Mexican voters favor a crackdown on migrants by their National Guard by a wide 51/36 margin, even though 55% of voters see this — accurately — as a policy imposed on Mexico by Trump. Only a plurality support the agreement itself (41%), with enthusiasm for the crackdown tempered by López Obrador’s agreement to house asylum seekers in northern Mexico for an indeterminate amount of time, which has grown deeply unpopular.

Despite seen as submitting to Trump on immigration, López Obrador remains very popular in Mexico, with a 70% approval rating. (Only 7% of respondents had a good opinion of Trump.) A majority believe that López Obrador has stood up to Trump (54/34), while a narrower plurality approve of the way López Obrador has handled the relationship with the US (47/41), although they generally view the relationship as bad (42%, as opposed to 24% good).

Even though his crackdown on illegal immigration got forced upon him, it doesn’t appear to be hurting López Obrador’s standing with his constituents. In fact, it appears that Trump might have done him a favor.

The post Surprise! Illegal immigration deeply unpopular with voters … in Mexico appeared first on Hot Air.

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Morning Consult: Biden keeps on keepin’ on

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Joe Biden had the most to lose heading into the first Democratic presidential debate, and he took a significant hit. However, he’s already begun to rebound, and no one else is getting much closer either. A report out from Morning Consult’s tracking poll shows the former VP still getting nearly a third of all support from Democratic primary voters, 32%.

Here’s their graph over time with all candidates listed:

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In this series, Biden lost almost all of his post-announcement bump after the debate. That’s still not putting him in any real danger of losing the lead, as he’s more than ten points up on Bernie Sanders, who has barely budged since Biden got in the race. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren benefited from strong debate performances, but their modest gains still put them nearly 20 points behind Biden and still trailing Sanders. At best, the race is looking as though it has developed three tiers, with Biden in a league of his own.

Of course, this is just one poll series. What about other national polling? The RCP average tracking graph shows a very similar picture — with the main difference being bad news for Bernie:

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In this aggregation, Biden appears to have lost a little more ground with primary voters, dropping below his pre-announcement floor, but also seems to be rebounding. Fifteen points below, though, Harris and Warren have caught up with Bernie for a tie in second place. Warren’s numbers have been ramping up steadily since May, but Harris’ spiked after the debate, a clear signal to the field that attacking Biden on race will at least get you noticed.

Noticed may be all it gets, though. Harris’ numbers are already drooping slightly, and at best it looks like she plateaued after the debate. Warren seems to have more momentum, and it seems as though the debate isn’t the only thing fueling her rise. If anyone has the inside edge at being the Not-Biden at this point, Warren’s more organic gain makes her the most interesting candidate in that middle tier.

Let’s not kid ourselves, however. Biden’s still the person to beat, and taking a brief beating in the debate didn’t change that. Neither did the two rounds of the first debate do anything to lift any of the bottom-tier candidates out of the mire, which should give them reason to reconsider their 2020 plans soon … very soon.

The post Morning Consult: Biden keeps on keepin’ on appeared first on Hot Air.

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Percentage who think Trump wins a second term now at… 60?

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If perception is indeed the harbinger of reality, there might be a smidgen of good news out there for Donald Trump this week. One of the latest surveys out from Scott Rasmussen asked voters if they thought Donald Trump was poised to win a second term. You can read whatever you like into the numbers, but the percentage who believe that’s either somewhat likely or very likely has now reached 60. That’s the highest recorded thus far and up significantly from January of this year.

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 continues to grow.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 60% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s up from 57% in May, 54% in April, 50% in March and 46% in February…

Data released earlier showed that 41% of voter believe none of the Democrats running will beat the president. On the other hand, 36% believe any of them will do so. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe none of the Democrats running can defeat President Trump. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats believe any of them are likely to defeat him.

Interestingly, the people at the extreme ends of the curve are stacking up on the “four more years” side. Sixteen percent say it’s not at all likely that Trump gets a second term, but double that amount – 32% – say that it’s very likely he will be re-elected.

We should keep in mind that these numbers have nothing to do with the President’s approval rating (which barely drifts far away from 46% these days) nor with how likely any of the respondents are to vote for Trump themselves. That sixty percent includes both those who are hoping Trump wins next November as well as those who think it will happen but are horrified by the prospect.

As for me, if I had been called up to answer that poll I’d nearly have been at a loss. Even today I would most likely give Trump a better than 50/50 chance of a second term, but not by much. If the Democrats nominate some sort of centrist that’s palatable to the independent voters, Trump’s chances go down. If they wind up with a liberal flamethrower who can readily be tarred as a socialist, Trump’s chances should be very solid.

One other thought on Scott Rasmussen’s numbers in closing. Back in January Trump still had the Russia, Russia, Russia story hanging over his head with the media beating that drum every day of the week. There were probably a lot of Democrats who fervently believed that he would either resign or be impeached before we got to 2020. With that mostly in the rearview mirror, I’m guessing that more people are either hoping or fearing that he can pull off that 2016 magic one more time.

The post Percentage who think Trump wins a second term now at… 60? appeared first on Hot Air.

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AOC Tries to Maker Her Dismal Poll Numbers Out to Be An Illusion of Trump’s

Westlake Legal Group AlexandraOcasioCortez-620x317 AOC Tries to Maker Her Dismal Poll Numbers Out to Be An Illusion of Trump’s polls poll Politics Front Page Stories Featured Story donald trump democrats AOC Allow Media Exception Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., listens during a House Financial Services Committee hearing with leaders of major banks, Wednesday, April 10, 2019, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Despite the media’s fawning over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she falls more into the “infamy” column than the “fame” column. Between killing jobs for New Yorkers and failing to denounce a terrorist who used language she uses as justification for his attack, AOC isn’t exactly a voter’s favorite choice.

This fact was revealed by an Axios poll that showed the New York democratic socialist was recognized by 74 percent of voters in the poll, but those voters only had a 22 percent favorable view of her.

It’s even worse for Rep. Ilhan Omar, who was recognized by 53 percent of the voters; but came in at a dismal 9% approval. As it turns out, taking a soft view of the people who murdered thousands of innocents in a terrorist attack isn’t good for favorability.

As the media continues to rage on about Trump’s “racist tweets,” Trump took to Twitter to defend himself and pointed out that the Democrat’s condemnation of his remarks via a resolution is “con game.” He said that he truly believes the “congresswomen” hate the United States and then pointed out that they aren’t very popular, using the Axios numbers as a guide.

“Those Tweets were NOT Racist. I don’t have a Racist bone in my body! The so-called vote to be taken is a Democrat con game. Republicans should not show “weakness” and fall into their trap,” tweeted Trump. “This should be a vote on the filthy language, statements and lies told by the Democrat Congresswomen, who I truly believe, based on their actions, hate our Country. Get a list of the HORRIBLE things they have said. Omar is polling at 8%, Cortez at 21%. Nancy Pelosi tried to push them away, but now they are forever wedded to the Democrat Party. See you in 2020!”

As I covered on Monday, while Trump’s tweets about the Congresswomen had their issues, they weren’t at all racist. Regardless, the media narrative is that it is and that’s what the Democrats are running with.

But I digress.

AOC decided to put up a defense of herself by calling Trump, and by extension the poll, a complete fabrication by pointing at Trump and comparing him to an authoritarian who uses “mass distortion” to push a narrative.

“Authoritarians rely on mass distortion of reality to further concentrate their power, and they will take advantage of anyone and anything to meet that end,” tweeted AOC.

That’s rich coming from an authoritarian who relies on mass distortions of reality to further concentrate her power.

This is the same AOC that told us that the world would fall into chaos in 12 years if we didn’t pass her dictator-esque legislation that would have lead the United States down into a socialist hell from which it would take decades to recover, if it ever did. This is also the same woman who posed in front of an empty parking lot in order to take pictures of herself looking sad in order to convince us that she was looking at migrant children being mistreated.

Distorting reality is what AOC does best. She even cooks up realities about herself through cringe-worthy videos where she’s a hero to future generations, and releases weird propaganda looking illustrations that make her look deep.

The truth is, AOC and her “#squad” are about as liked by voters as Yoko Ono is to Beatles fans. She’s a habitual liar, apologetically ridiculous, and comes off more as a spoiled child than a professional lawmaker.

This isn’t Trump’s illusion, this is a very real Ocasio-Cortez creation.

The post AOC Tries to Maker Her Dismal Poll Numbers Out to Be An Illusion of Trump’s appeared first on RedState.

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Marianne Williamson rescued a fellow candidate’s dead campaign

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Let’s face it, few people know who Mike Gravel is, much less that he is a Democrat running in the 2020 presidential primary. He announced his candidacy in April. Unlike most candidates, though, he asked supporters to donate as little as possible to his campaign, not as much as they could spare.

All Gravel wants is the opportunity to qualify for the DNC debates. His first appeal was simply to meet the requirement of 65,000 individual donors. To qualify for the first debate, the candidates had to also poll at 1% or higher in 3 DNC-approved polls. Gravel didn’t qualify for the first debate but he’s hoping to do so for the second debate. He’s hit the donor requirement and announced it on Twitter Friday.

Yeah, the tweet is a little odd but frankly, so is he, at least as a candidate. He served in the U.S. Senate representing Alaska from 1969-1981. Gravel is 89 years old now. He ran for president in 2008 as a Democrat and then he joined the Libertarian Party. Now he’s running as a Democrat again. His whole reason for running for president is to get onto the debate stage and try to push the party’s candidates even farther left. No, really. That’s the goal. He calls his campaign a protest campaign, not a true campaign. He just wants to get on the stage and deliver his message. Then, he’ll drop out.

As the campaign got really close to reaching the 65,000 donor threshold, an incentive was offered – how about a signed rock? I told you he’s a bit odd. In the South, we call it “eccentric”.

Gravel admitted he didn’t have the number of donors needed to qualify for the second debate on July 5. He asked for suggestions for where to donate his leftover funds.

This is 2019 and things are weird. Fellow candidate Marianne Williamson came to Gravel’s rescue. She sent out a fundraising appeal for Gravel in order to keep his hope alive. And, just like that, he’s alive as far as the requirement for 65,000 donors goes. It’s the polling requirement that is the sticking point.

Why did Marianne Williamson help out Gravel? It may be their common foreign policy goals.

Still, Williamson’s pitch for Gravel is an interesting if probably not very consequential example of how she intends to, as she put it in the first debate, “harness love” to win the nomination and beat Trump. But it wasn’t an accident she chose the eccentric 89-year-old Gravel for this beneficence. She cited him as an example of the “diverse and provocative voices” the campaign needs. If you aren’t familiar with Williamson or with Gravel, you should understand that when it comes to foreign policy (Gravel’s signature issue and the entire rationale for his teenager-driven sorta-campaign) these two candidates make Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren look like neocon warmongers.

Williamson, a longtime proponent (along with her friend Dennis Kucinich) of a cabinet-level Department of Peace, is for deep and permanent defense-spending cuts and a complete reorientation of international relations to focus on conflict prevention. For Gravel, opposition to military interventions has been the one consistent strand of his long and winding political career, dating back to his publication of the antiwar classic Pentagon Papers in a version edited by lefty icons Noam Chomsky and Howard Zinn. I don’t know how Gravel feels about some of Williamson’s more ethereal preoccupations, but they are in fact natural allies, if only in the challenge they pose to mainstream views of America’s role in the world.

The Gravel campaign is now tackling the requirement on the polling threshold. He says he has been ignored by pollsters.

The campaign hammered the DNC over the polling qualifications, saying it is in talks with national party leaders and has retained counsel over the issue.

“The campaign has retained counsel and is currently in talks with the DNC over the validity of the polling method of qualification, given that well over half of DNC’s approved polls methodically and consistently excluded Sen. Gravel despite the campaign’s documented, repeated outreach to both pollsters and the DNC for inclusion,” Gravel’s campaign manager David Oks said.

“If the DNC were to exclude us, the campaign is also developing contingency plans that would allow us to spread our vital message. We kept our receipts, we have retained legal counsel. Our goal in this campaign has always been to shift the conversation, and we will persist in doing so.”

The bar is set higher to qualify for the third and fourth debates so Gravel’s time is limited whether he makes it to the second debate or not. He said from the beginning when he drops out, he’ll endorse the most liberal candidate. In the meantime, he will continue to work towards ending the American “Empire”.

Gravel has launched an ad against Joe Biden that runs on MSNBC. As I said, he’s all about his message and clearly, he is over Joe. Enjoy.

The post Marianne Williamson rescued a fellow candidate’s dead campaign appeared first on Hot Air.

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Oof. Biden’s lead contracts, Bernie is disappearing

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I’m old enough to remember the heady days when Joe Biden was polling somewhere north of 40% and the only other person that could even crawl into the teens was Bernie Sanders. But that was literally weeks ago. The latest Economist/YouGov poll just came out and it’s difficult to say if we actually have a frontrunner among the Democrats. Biden has dropped to 22 percent and Elizabeth Warren is only five points behind him, barely outside the margin of error. And what happened to Bernie Sanders? He’s fallen back to eleven percent, in danger of hitting single digits. (The Hill)

Former Vice President Joe Biden is hanging on to the top spot in the Democratic primary field, leading his nearest rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) by 5 points, according to an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday.

Biden notched 22 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters in the poll, while Warren finished in second place with 17 percent. In third was Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), who took 14 percent support in the survey.

Rounding out the top five candidates were Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 11 percent and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who received 5 percent of the vote.

It’s beginning to look like the Pete Buttigieg boomlet has gone bust. He was the flavor of the week for quite a while there, but his opponents have been tagging him on his handling of the police shooting in South Bend last month, as well as suggesting that he’s insufficiently woke in terms of racism. In any event, his numbers are heading in the wrong direction.

Getting back to the headline, how did Joe Biden slip so far so fast? I suppose we’ll have to credit that at least partially to the first debates and the way Kamala Harris somehow dragged him into a debate on busing (!?!) decades after the last time anyone was talking about it. The pile-on by the media was relentless and it appears that enough people are paying attention to cause him some damage.

Do we really think this could happen to Biden for the third time? Granted, his first presidential bid was kind of a long shot. The second run just hit some unfortunate timing because he ran smack into the teeth of the Hope and Change moment. But this time seemed like it just had to be different. Biden came out of the gates looking as if the primary was only a formality. He had not only the highest name recognition but the best approval ratings and a gold plated resume. And yet somehow Kamala Harris has dragged him into a mud fight. Oddly enough, it hasn’t helped her as much as Elizabeth Warren, though. Those Dem primary voters are a fickle lot this year, or so it seems.

Let’s not start writing Biden’s political obituary just yet, though. He’s still in the lead outside the margins and he has at least a couple more debates to do some damage control. But he clearly can’t take anything for granted anymore and float above the fray. If Biden really wants this, he’s going to have to earn it.

The post Oof. Biden’s lead contracts, Bernie is disappearing appeared first on Hot Air.

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Uh oh: New WaPo/ABC poll puts abortion support at generational high

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A philosophical shift, or just crisis fatigue? A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows support for legal abortion rising to its highest level in the series in almost 25 years, hitting 60%. It comes as court fights ramp up over a series of laws passed in southern and Midwestern states that sharply restrict access to abortion, and the two are almost certainly related:

Support for legal abortion stands at its highest level in more than two decades according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, even as numerous states adopt restrictions that challenge the breadth of rights established by the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.

The Post-ABC poll finds a 60 percent majority who say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, up from 55 percent in a 2013 Post-ABC poll, and tying the record high level of support from 1995. The latest survey finds 36 percent say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, also tying a record low.

Is this really a warmer embrace of abortion itself, or just a reaction to a glut of abortion-restricting laws? The poll hints at the latter:

A 41 percent plurality of Americans want their own states to avoid making it either harder or easier for women to have access to abortion. Fewer (32 percent) say their states should make it easier and fewer still (24 percent) say their states should make it harder for women to have access to abortion.

This looks more like a reaction — and not a very large one at that — to the legislative activism taking place in strongly pro-life states. It recalls the wisdom adopted by the pro-life movement to focus more on hearts and minds rather than laws and lawsuits in order to build momentum for later legislative action. Until now, that has been paying off slowly and incrementally in changing people’s minds about abortion and especially its nature. Until that change of heart really takes root, Americans will be most comfortable sticking with the status quo.

This poll isn’t terribly well designed to get to the nuances of public sentiment on abortion anyway. Asking whether abortion should be legal/illegal in “all cases” or “most cases” says nothing about which cases matter. Gallup’s long-range polling on these questions is better structured for that purpose. Gallup has yet to run a survey this year on abortion, but last year’s results on the specifics of legality suggests that not much has changed at all even while the WaPo/ABC poll was showing an overall increase:

Americans’ support for the legality of abortion varies sharply when they are asked to evaluate it on a trimester basis, which is consistent with the pattern Gallup has found for more than 20 years. Six in 10 U.S. adults think abortion should generally be legal in the first three months of pregnancy. However, support drops by about half, to 28%, for abortions conducted in the second three months, and by half again, to 13%, in the final three months.

Current abortion attitudes, from Gallup’s May 1-10 Values and Beliefs poll, are similar to the prior update, in 2012, as well as to Gallup’s first measure of this question, in 1996.

Gallup also asked the legal question in terms of both trimesters and motives, which demonstrated the mixed emotions Americans have on abortion overall:

Westlake Legal Group gallup-abortion-1024x688 Uh oh: New WaPo/ABC poll puts abortion support at generational high WaPo/ABC poll The Blog polls gallup Abortion

Note that all of the >60% support categories even in the first trimester involve violence or near-certain death of the child. Otherwise, support for abortion even in the Roe paradigm drops below 60%, and abortion on demand for no good reason doesn’t even get majority support within that paradigm. And note too that the vast majority of abortions fall into that bottom category; even the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute acknowledges that only 1% or so of abortions involve rape and/or incest.

It’s still clear that the pro-life movement has a long way to go. At some point, legislative efforts will be necessary, but it might be better to remain patient until a mandate develops that truly reflects progress on defining life and its sanctity.

The post Uh oh: New WaPo/ABC poll puts abortion support at generational high appeared first on Hot Air.

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New WaPo poll grudgingly admits Trump’s popularity is rising

Westlake Legal Group TrumpOK New WaPo poll grudgingly admits Trump’s popularity is rising Washington Post The Blog polls Economy donald trump approval rating

Maybe it’s just the summer heat. Perhaps it can be attributed to spending a lot of time overseas lately. Or, as most observers seem to feel, maybe it’s still just the economy, stupid. Whatever the cause, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has some good news for President Trump. He’s seen a six-point rise in favorability in this survey over the past few months and he’s polling fairly competitively against all but one of the Democratic contenders hoping to replace him next fall. (WaPo)

Aided by a strong economy and perceptions that he has dealt with it effectively, President Trump’s approval rating has risen to the highest point of his presidency, though a slight majority of Americans continue to say they disapprove of his performance in office, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey highlights the degree to which Trump has a narrow but real path to reelection. His approval rating on most issues is net negative, and more than 6 in 10 Americans say he has acted in ways that are unpresidential since he was sworn into office. Still, roughly one-fifth of those who say he is not presidential say they approve of the job he is doing, and he runs even against four possible Democratic nominees in hypothetical ­general-election matchups…

Trump’s approval rating among voting-age Americans stands at 44 percent, edging up from 39 percent in April, with 53 percent saying they disapprove of him. Among registered voters, 47 percent say they approve of Trump while 50 percent disapprove. In April, 42 percent of registered voters said they approved while 54 percent said they disapproved.

Worth noting right off the bat is the fact that the 47/50 number is among registered voters and it’s significantly better than his popularity with all Americans of voting age. Being so far out from the election, there’s no point in try to model likely voters, but he’s tended to do even better in that category, so it’s conceivable that Trump is somehow approaching something in the range of 50/50. That would be rather amazing given the endless barrage of negative coverage he receives in nearly all media outlets on a 24/7 basis.

Of course, as the WaPo concludes at the top, most of the sunnier opinions about the President are based on the economy, which stubbornly refuses to collapse into a recession as Democrats appear to hope it will. We just had another very solid jobs report and unemployment continues to hover under four percent. As long as things keep cooking along like this and voters don’t find themselves inconvenienced by a sudden downturn, it’s probably difficult to be too upset with the people in charge.

But might that translate to a second term for Trump? The poll dips into that territory, but let’s be honest. Any survey testing a head to head matchup against a hypothetical Democratic nominee sixteen months before the election is likely worth less than the paper we’re not bothering to print it on. But since they took the time to ask the question, this survey has Biden beating Trump handily with a ten-point spread. Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg are all within the margin of error.

There is one interesting factoid in those head to head matchups, however. Trump leads handily against an unnamed opponent described as, “a Democratic candidate you regard as a socialist.” The RNC is obviously already aware of this trend and you can rest assured that you’ll be hearing the “s-word” bandied about quite a bit next year. It will be harder to paint Biden with that brush since he always rejects the term, but as for the rest of them… the ads pretty much write themselves.

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