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Westlake Legal Group > roy moore

NBA Legend Charles Barkley Slams Democrats for Only Talking to Black People ‘Every Four Years’

Westlake Legal Group basketball-330709_1280-620x465 NBA Legend Charles Barkley Slams Democrats for Only Talking to Black People ‘Every Four Years’ Uncategorized roy moore racism Race pandering Front Page Stories ESPN elections doug jones donald trump democrats charles barkley Campaigns Allow Media Exception Alabama

 

 

I like NBA legend Charles Barkley. He’s a guy who says what he thinks and doesn’t really care how anyone feels about it.

Not so long ago, that was called “strong.” These days, I believe it’s called being an insensitive jerk. For a significant other, that’s probably accurate, but when it comes to national personalities, to a point, I prefer the previous interpretation.

And on Wednesday, Charles had strong words for Democrats.

Speaking to Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM, the sports icon recalled his efforts for Doug Jones during the 2017 race against Republican Roy Moore.

Barkley explained that he pledged Doug his assistance but ripped Dems in general:

“I said ‘Doug, I’m going to support you. I’m going to try to get every black person in Alabama to vote for you.’ And it worked out. We won for the first time in 40 years. But I said, ‘We need to start holding you Democrats accountable’ because they’ve been taking black people’s votes – and they only talk to black people every four years. All of these politicians only talk to black people every four years because they want their vote.”

And they offer nothing:

“Oh, actually, the Republicans don’t, the Democrats do. But when they get elected, they do nothing in the four years in between.”

The Alabama man also asserted Trump supporters are being wrongfully characterized as racist:

“I don’t think everybody who voted for Trump is racist … I think some of them are, but I don’t think everybody who voted for Trump is racist. But this thing started way, way back. When we started shipping all our jobs overseas many, many years ago, it was really going to have a negative effect in the long run; you notice now that all these malls and places are closing because people are doing all their shopping online, that’s going to have a negative effect … that’s not the President’s fault.”

The power forward doesn’t like talk of race being inserted where it doesn’t belong. He made that clear in January of 2016, when he accused ESPN of extreme goofiness in its framing of the Broncos/Panthers game, featuring white quarterback Peyton Manning and black QB Cam Newton:

“ESPN has already started their crap about black versus white, good versus evil—and I know a lot of those fools over there got radio talk shows. … It really annoys the hell out of me. We really just can’t appreciate the greatness of Peyton. And, clearly, Cam is on the track to become one of the greatest players ever. You can already see them framing this narrative ‘black versus white, good versus evil.’”

He said race sells:

“The best way to make talk radio good is to make it racial. … I hate bringing up the race card because there’s more important race stuff, but race does have something to do with it. There is a racial component, but I hate talking about that because we, as black people, we got way more important things where race is a factor than something silly like sports.”

As for “more important things,” when Doug Jones toppled Roy during the special election two years ago, Charles told CNN he was proud of Alabama, but he also grilled Democrats then as well, saying they needed to “get off their a**”:

“I’m so proud of my state. I love my state. We got some amazing people here. Yeah, we got a bunch of rednecks and a bunch of ignorant people, but we got some amazing people here and they rose up today. … It’s time for [Democrats] to get off their a** and start making life better for black folks and people who are poor.”

-ALEX

 

See 3 more pieces from me:

Tim Scott Blasts Democrats For Constant & Ridiculous Claims Of Trump’s Racism – It’s The ‘Lowest Common Denominator’

Beto O’Rourke’s Latest Goofy ‘Man Of The People’ Video Continues His Tone-Deaf Race To 2020 Obscurity

Think You’ve Heard The Stupidest Thing Ever? I Disagree. Witness The Woke’s New Condemnation Of IKEA

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The post NBA Legend Charles Barkley Slams Democrats for Only Talking to Black People ‘Every Four Years’ appeared first on RedState.

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MSNBC’s Chris Hayes Took a Swipe at Nikki Haley, but Donald Trump, Jr. Had the Last Laugh

Westlake Legal Group NikkiHaleyAPPhoto-620x317 MSNBC’s Chris Hayes Took a Swipe at Nikki Haley, but Donald Trump, Jr. Had the Last Laugh Social Media roy moore republicans Politics North Carolina Nikki Haley MSNBC Media journalism Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Featured Post elections donald trump jr democrats Congress Chris Hayes Campaigns Allow Media Exception Alabama 2020 Elections 2020

Former Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley speaks at the 2019 American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) policy conference, at Washington Convention Center, in Washington, Monday, March 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Last month, not long after the news broke that failed Republican U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore (AL) said he’d be taking another shot at the seat in 2020, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley weighed in on Twitter with her thoughts on the announcement:

As recent polling in Alabama indicates, Moore is pulling in a mere 13% of Republican voters. So he’s not exactly a top contender:

But inconvenient facts like that don’t matter to MSNBC‘s Chris Hayes, who (belatedly) took a swipe at Haley on Monday on the social media platform, suggesting that Moore was the face of the Republican party:

That didn’t sit well with a number of Twitter users, who pointed out that Hayes needed to work on cleaning his own backyard before he started casting stones over the fence:

Donald Trump, Jr. joined in, too, and hammered the Virginia point home:

It should be noted that Trump, Jr. opposes Moore’s candidacy like most Republicans do:

As of this writing, Hayes has not responded to Trump, Jr.’s tweet.

—————–
—Based in North Carolina, Sister Toldjah is a former liberal and a 15+ year veteran of blogging with an emphasis on media bias, social issues, and the culture wars. Read her Red State archives here. Connect with her on Twitter.–

The post MSNBC’s Chris Hayes Took a Swipe at Nikki Haley, but Donald Trump, Jr. Had the Last Laugh appeared first on RedState.

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Here’s How Roy Moore Is Polling in the Alabama GOP Senate Primary

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Former Alabama Chief Justice and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore waits to speak at a press conference, Thursday, Nov. 16, 2017, in Birmingham, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

Roy Moore is back. He’s declared himself a candidate for the 2020 Republican Senate primary in Alabama for reasons only known to himself.

Moore was, of course, savaged in 2017 after forty-year-old allegations that he dated underage girls surfaced. Most of the allegations were more creepy than illegal (i.e. it’s not illegal for a 30-year-old to date a 17-year-old) but one involving a 14-year-old ended up being the biggest factor in his downfall. There was a later accusation of sexual assault that appeared at the behest of grifter lawyer Gloria Allred, but that one was best left out of the equation.

With Moore back on the scene, some conservatives lashed out at him for putting a solidly red seat in jeopardy once again. Those included the President’s son.

Now, we’ve got our first polling of the primary race and here’s how Moore is faring.

Moore is clocking in a distant 3rd with coaching legend Tommy Tuberville at the top. Needless to say, if Tuberville gets the nomination, he’s going to walk away from Doug Jones and win.

Bradly Byrne, a current Congressional Representative, will probably get a lot of establishment support. Arnold Mooney is currently a fringe candidate but has picked up some high profile endorsements from people like Mark Levin. The key here is that Mitch McConnell needs to not try to pick a winner by destroying other viable, conservative candidates. Stay out of it and you won’t end up with a Strange vs. Moore scenario again.

Here’s my opinion on this. Roy Moore is a clownish figure who constantly steps on his own feet and he has no business being the nominee at this point. While he may have done some good things as a judge in past decades, this Senate seat is not about him and he’s not entitled to it. The point is to win the election, not to make sure Roy Moore is given a chance at vengeance.

Alabama will have to decide for themselves, but with a tough Senate map in 2020, every seat counts. That means losing a Republican seat in deep red Alabama is simply not an option. For the moment, it looks like Alabama voters aren’t game for a do-over with Roy Moore and that’s probably a smart decision.

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The post Here’s How Roy Moore Is Polling in the Alabama GOP Senate Primary appeared first on RedState.

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Cancel the intervention: New Alabama poll has Roy Moore in third place, at just 13 percent

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Looks like the GOP won’t need Jeff Sessions to swoop in and swipe this nomination after all.

In fact, if this poll is accurate, McConnell might not even need Trump to go down there and stump for one of Moore’s primary opponents. He’s perilously close to fourth place here.

Note that this survey was conducted on June 22 and 23, a few days after Moore announced that he was running again. Typically a campaign announcement produces a bounce for a candidate, sometimes even a sizable one like Joe Biden’s. If that’s what happened to Moore here, how low was he polling before the announcement?

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Nearly a third of Republicans admit they’re likely to vote for Doug Jones in the general election if Moore is the nominee; doubtless there are more who intend to do so but won’t tell a pollster that. His favorable rating — again, among Republicans — stands at 28/65.

What the hell is his statewide number if he’s -37 within his own party?

No wonder Senate Republicans were spoiling to take him down after last week’s announcement:

Added Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, “We’ll be opposing Roy Moore vigorously.”…

“Give me a break. This place has enough creepy old men,” said Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), referring to Washington, when asked about Moore’s candidacy…

A Moore candidacy could harm Republicans’ national brand if he catches fire again, and incumbents running in purple states — like Gardner and McSally — are loath to find themselves tied to him. And facing a tougher 2020 map with several battleground seats in play, Republicans are eager to beat Jones and cushion their majority.

He is well and truly done if these new numbers reflect party sentiment. But that’s a big if. Remember, a different poll taken in April found Moore doing much better, even leading a hypothetical field:

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How do we square that poll with today’s poll, assuming for argument’s sake that neither one’s methodology was screwy? I’ll give you three theories.

1. Reality set in. When Alabama Republicans were asked about this in April, Moore was still two months away from a decision. Undecideds might have chosen his name due to pure name recognition, or as an act of defiance towards the GOP establishment. Now that he’s actually in the race, though, many of them may have had flashbacks to the outcome in 2017 and thought, “Sh*t, this guy again? No thanks.” Result: Third place.

2. The Trump factor. Remember this tweet?

That was May 29, around a month after the poll showing Moore leading the field was released. A month later, he’s now down to 13 percent. Maybe POTUS’s strong signal of disapproval succeeded in steering Republican populists away. (Trump’s favorable rating with Alabama GOPers in today’s poll is 84/15.) Granted, Trump also sent a signal of disapproval towards Moore in the 2017 primary runoff by endorsing Luther Strange, and that signal was ignored. But that came before the reports of Moore chasing teenaged girls as a middle-aged man. And of course it came before Moore blew one of the most easily winnable Senate seats for a Republican in the country. At this point, Alabama Republicans might have needed only the slightest nudge to abandon Moore. Trump provided it.

3. The Tuberville factor. There’s a key difference between the April poll and today’s poll, isn’t there? The first one didn’t include former Auburn football head coach Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville’s a Trumpy figure in a way, a newcomer to electoral politics who nonetheless enjoys high name recognition due to his celebrity in another field. That may be why he’s leading here — nothing more or less than the fact that every football fan in Alabama knows who he is. But it may be that his newcomer appeal is cutting into Moore’s support specifically. If the idea in sending Moore to Washington two years ago was to have a political outsider shake up the establishment, you can get that same feature in Tuberville’s candidacy minus Moore’s Elmer Gantry-ish drawbacks. My guess is that Tuberville’s support is mainly drawn from populists, the same people who’d otherwise gravitate to Moore. The coach may be inadvertently doing Mitch McConnell a favor by running, especially if he and Moore end up splitting righties and Bradley Byrne ends up as the nominee by consolidating establishment support.

Exit question: If Moore makes a comeback and Sessions just won’t run, what’s the “break glass in case of emergency” option here? Gotta be Nick Saban, right?

The post Cancel the intervention: New Alabama poll has Roy Moore in third place, at just 13 percent appeared first on Hot Air.

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Roy Moore Wants to Lose Another Senate Race

The only Republican who could lose a statewide race in Alabama these days is determined to try again. News broke today that Roy Moore, the former judge who lost the 2017 Alabama Senate special election to Doug Jones, was tossing his cowboy hat in the ring once again.

It takes a special level of talent to lose in deep-red Alabama to a pro-choice Democrat, and none of Moore’s baggage from his 2017 election — the series of women and corroborating witnesses who accused him of sexual misconduct and sexual assault, getting removed from his judicial offices twice for willfully failing to follow the law, countless comments that many viewed as racist, anti-Semitic, or homophobic — have dissipated, but Moore is determined to cause another round of chaos for Alabama Republicans.

The Washington Post report notes that President Donald Trump, who endorsed Moore in 2017, and top Republicans in his state all voiced concerns that Moore could not win.

“I will run for the U.S. Senate in 2020,” Moore said at a campaign launch event in Montgomery. “Can I win? Yes, I can win.”

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), Alabama’s senior senator, told reporters a few days ago that he did not think Moore could win and he would not support him.

“There are a lot reasons known to you and everybody else,” Shelby said. “I think Alabama could do better. I think he would be a disrupter. I think we can win that seat back as the Republicans but I won’t support him.”

Moore joins multiple other Republicans who have already launched primary campaigns, including Rep. Bradley Byrne, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, State Rep. Arnold Mooney, and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville.

Former Sen. Jeff Sessions, who resigned his seat to temporarily become Trump’s Attorney General, is rumored to be considering running for his old seat, and is viewed as likely to clear the field.

Moore’s announcement drew swift condemnation from the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC that supports GOP Senate candidates. They released a statement calling the idea of nominating Moore again “gift wrapping this Senate seat for Chuck Schumer.”

Read my RedState article archive here.

Follow Sarah Rumpf on Twitter: @rumpfshaker.

The post Roy Moore Wants to Lose Another Senate Race appeared first on RedState.

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Roy Moore: Who’s ready for Roy Moore 2.0?

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I was worried that Alabama Republicans might be left next year without the option on the ballot of a hugely unpopular populist saddled with scandal baggage involving underaged girls.

Thankfully my fears have now been eased.

The “Draft Jeff Sessions” movement begins today.

“I will run for the U.S. Senate in 2020,” Moore said at an event in Montgomery, Ala., “Can I win? Yes, I can win.”…

“Why is there such a fear, such an anger to somebody running. The mere mention of my name causes people to get up in arms in D.C. Is it because I’m a staunch conservative? Is it because I believe in God, marriage, morality? Is it because I believe in the right of the baby in the womb?” Moore, 72, told reporters and supporters in making his announcement…

Alabama’s senior Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R) echoed Trump’s concerns Wednesday, ahead of Moore’s campaign announcement and said he would not support him.

“There are a lot reasons known to you and everybody else,” Shelby said. “I think Alabama could do better. I think he would be a disrupter. I think we can win that seat back as the Republicans but I won’t support him.”

Hats off to a guy who blew a special election in one of the reddest states in the country for believing that Washington — including Trump — opposes him because he’s too “staunchly conservative.” But, as I’ve said before, I do think he’s right that he can win a general election next year with Trump at the top of the ballot. He barely lost to Doug Jones in 2017. Trump should be able to drag anyone, Moore included, across the finish line if he has to in a year with turnout at presidential-election levels.

But he and his family really, really, really don’t want to. And they haven’t been shy about saying so. Including again this afternoon:

I continue to believe that Moore can’t win another primary in a runoff state like Alabama. He can win a plurality in the first round and advance again to the runoff, but the nightmare of 2017 has to — has to — mean that 50.1 percent of Alabama Republicans will gamble on a different candidate if forced to choose between that candidate and Moore next year. They’re not going to throw good money after bad with a six-year term for Jones on the line this time. Especially with the Trumps campaigning for some alternative (Sessions?) in the primary.

Here he is this afternoon making his announcement. Exit question: Would McConnell attempt to expel Moore from the Senate on scandal grounds if he wins — and, if so, would he say that upfront during the primary, making it a campaign issue? That might backfire, after all, by handing the populist Moore another credential to tout how much the establishment hates him. McConnell declared Jones “not fit” to serve two years ago but conceded that, under Supreme Court precedent, the Senate couldn’t refuse to seat Moore if he had defeated Jones. But there’s always the possibility of an ethics investigation and expulsion from the chamber. If, that is, Trump didn’t vocally oppose it. Which he almost certainly would once the seat has been safely won, with Moore promising to be a loyal Trumpian soldier in the Senate.

The post Roy Moore: Who’s ready for Roy Moore 2.0? appeared first on Hot Air.

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Jeff Sessions thinking of running for his old Senate seat in Alabama?

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I think he’s running. Not because he’s said so — he’s noncommittal, per Richard Shelby — but because American politics is a television show now whose day-to-day developments are driven by drama. What would be the most dramatic thing that could happen in the Alabama race? Off the top of my head, it would be Roy Moore announcing his candidacy (which may come as soon as tomorrow), surging to an unexpectedly large lead in the primary, and forcing a desperate GOP to scramble to find someone who can beat him.

And who’s the likeliest candidate to do that? Why, former Trump advisor turned enemy Jeff Sessions, who abandoned the Senate to join the administration as AG only to be smacked publicly every day by the president for doing the ethical thing and recusing himself from Russiagate. Subplot one: Can a reluctant Sessions be talked into saving the seat for a party that treated him so badly?

Subplot two: Can Trump be persuaded to put aside his hatred and back Sessions if the alternative is another Senate nomination for Roy Moore?

It’d be the cheesiest of political melodrama, worthy of “House of Cards,” so of course it’s going to happen. Then, in the exciting season finale, newly elected Sen. Sessions will become the 67th vote for removal in the Senate after Democrats impeach Trump. What a twist.

“Sessions I don’t think has ruled it out,” Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.) told reporters. “I’ve talked to him about it. I think if he ran he would be a formidable candidate, formidable. I’ve not encouraged him to run, but he’s a friend, and if he ran I think he’d probably clear the field.”…

Shelby said Wednesday that he would not support Moore, a former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, for the Senate seat.

“There are a lot reasons known to you and everybody else,” Shelby said. “I think Alabama could do better. I think he would be a disrupter. I think we can win that seat back as the Republicans, but I won’t supporting him.”

Shelby suggested it would be difficult to beat Jones next year if Moore in the GOP nominee.

Eh, I don’t know that it’d be “difficult” to beat Jones even with Moore as nominee since Trump will be at the top of the ballot. It’d be more difficult than it would be with any other Republican, especially Sessions. I don’t think Sessions running would “clear the field” either. Certainly Moore would hang in there and try to turn the primary into a referendum on Russiagate, which would make things awkward for Trump. Would he endorse Sessions purely in the interest of flipping Doug Jones’s seat? Or would he stay neutral because his animosity towards Sessions allows him no other option?

If he did stay neutral, how much traction might Moore get from Russiagate in the primary? Not much, I’d bet. Sessions would likely win easily, partly out of residual goodwill from his years in the Senate, partly out of sympathy for how he was treated as AG. Even Trump endorsing Moore might not be enough to stop him. Trump endorsed Luther Strange over Moore in the 2017 runoff, remember, and Alabama Republicans nominated Moore anyway. This time, knowing that Moore’s lost once already to Jones, voters might lunge at the chance to nominate a sure winner like Sessions whether Trump likes it or not.

In fact, precisely because Sessions would be so hard to beat, Trump probably wouldn’t oppose him — and might even support him. POTUS loves to be seen as being on the side of winners. If he’s convinced that Sessions is unbeatable, he’ll endorse him grudgingly purely in the interest of taking some credit for his victory afterward.

Exit question: How long has Sessions been thinking about challenging Jones? Here’s a story from Politico published last November, just days after he was fired as AG, claiming that he was thinking about it. Maybe he’s been holding back, waiting for Moore to declare in the expectation that that’ll throw a scare into the GOP and make them more amenable to him riding to the rescue.

The post Jeff Sessions thinking of running for his old Senate seat in Alabama? appeared first on Hot Air.

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Senate GOP to Trump: You’re not really going to nominate Cuccinelli, are you?

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At least so far, the answer appears to be yes. Donald Trump wants former Virginia AG Ken Cuccinelli to take over at Citizenship and Immigration Services for the recently departed L. Frank Cissna, who left at the same time Kirstjen Nielsen resigned as Secretary of Homeland Security. That will require Cuccinelli to seek Senate confirmation from some of the people Cuccinelli targeted in earlier internecine purity campaigns within the GOP.

In other words … have fun storming the castle. Republicans would prefer to avoid that if possible, CNN reported yesterday evening:

Republican lawmakers have privately signaled to the White House that President Donald Trump should not nominate Ken Cuccinelli as the head of United States Citizenship and Immigration Services — or else he risks having another high-profile pick forced to withdraw, CNN has learned. …

People familiar with the discussions said they have made clear to the White House that Cuccinelli would face serious difficulty in being confirmed. Lawmakers have reminded officials in the West Wing that Cuccinelli, a former Virginia state attorney general, once led a political action committee that supported a primary challenge against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

It’s unclear if the White House will take their advice. Officials have been sensitive to criticism that they do not vet their expected picks after Herman Cain and Stephen Moore both withdrew from consideration for spots on the Federal Reserve Board earlier this year. But one official said the White House’s decision will likely depend on whether lawmakers come out publicly against the nomination.

They won’t have to wait long. This leak serves as a throat-clearing exercise for what will come if Trump presses forward with Cuccinelli. Politico’s Burgess Everett and Eliana Johnson report that Senate Republicans will deliver payback to Cuccinelli if they get the chance — and that they will make sure he never gets confirmed:

President Donald Trump wants Cuccinelli, who most recently led the anti-establishment Senate Conservatives Fund, to be director of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. But there may be nobody in Washington whom McConnell and his allies would take more pleasure in defeating, and the bottom line is Cuccinelli has little chance of getting approved for the job, Republican senators said.

“He’s spent a fair amount of his career attacking Republicans in the Senate, so it strikes me as an odd position for him to put himself in to seek Senate confirmation,” said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who ran the GOP’s campaign arm for two election cycles. “It’s unlikely he’s going to be confirmed if he is nominated.”

Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate GOP’s chief vote-counter, called the bid “a long shot,” adding, “They’ll go forward with it or they won’t, but I will suspect he’ll have plenty of obstacles once he gets here.”

Cuccinelli is a favorite of grassroots conservatives and Trump populists, but they won’t get to vote on his confirmation. Nor will Senate opposition to Cuccinelli likely lead to the kind of primary fights that Cuccinelli tried to generate against incumbents like Mitch McConnell and Richard Burr. Everyone is now too focused on winning enough seats to keep control of the Senate in 2020 to indulge those kinds of purity campaigns, especially on behalf of someone who endorsed Roy Moore in Alabama’s special election two years ago. That in itself might call into question why Trump wants to put him in front of Republican senators for confirmation.

Trump’s embrace of Cuccinelli isn’t surprising, but his desire to push Cuccinelli in front of Senate Republicans is. Originally, Cuccinelli got picked to be an immigration policy czar in the administration, which wouldn’t have required Senate confirmation but still would have required plenty of coordination with Republicans in Congress. That would have been awkward enough, but Cuccinelli’s former targets couldn’t have done much about it. Now, however, they can deliver payback on Cuccinelli and remind Trump that fomenting populist revolts against incumbents might not be a good idea for occupants on either end of Pennsylvania Avenue in the next year or so, nor rewarding those who try it.

Expect this nomination to go the same way as Herman Cain’s nomination to the Fed … only maybe quieter.

The post Senate GOP to Trump: You’re not really going to nominate Cuccinelli, are you? appeared first on Hot Air.

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New leader in Alabama Senate primary: Roy Moore, of course

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As you’d expect, he’s succeeding on the strength of [checks notes] the woman vote.

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Women tend to be more religious than men and Moore’s political brand is all about religion, so maybe that’s why? I got nothin’ otherwise.

Back in February, when he was making noise about possibly running again, I argued he’d be DOA in a primary for two reasons. One: This time the party would unite to stop him, from Trump to McConnell to state leaders to even some populist tastemakers who don’t want to risk a repeat of 2017. GOP bigwigs would huddle and throw their weight behind a rival candidate, maybe Bradley Byrne, maybe Mo Brooks, but someone, and Moore would be sunk. Two: Even if that didn’t happen for whatever reason, Alabama’s Republican voters would themselves fear a rerun of the Moore/Doug Jones special election and would rally to some other candidate to avoid it. One way or another, there just won’t be enough of an appetite in the state to roll the dice on Moore again.

What I didn’t count on is that the race might attract prominent outsider candidates like former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville who aren’t under the party’s control. This poll didn’t measure Tuberville’s support but the more contestants there are in the primary, the greater the risk that the anti-Moore vote will splinter many different ways, propelling Moore towards victory. As for my confidence that the grassroots would reject Moore even if the establishment failed to block him, well, we have some data about that right here in front of us. How good does that prediction look?

Bear in mind that with Trump at the top of the ballot next fall driving massive turnout, it’s highly likely that anyone nominated for Senate by the GOP will win on his coattails. We’re thisclose to Senator Roy Moore after all!

Well … no, not really. He has two massive potholes in front of him on the road to the Senate. One is his favorable rating: This same poll has Byrne at 25/2 in favorability among Alabama Republicans, Brooks at 27/8, and Moore at … 34/29. (Another 33 percent are “neutral.”) Fully 46 percent say they don’t know enough about Byrne yet to have an opinion but just four percent say the same of Moore. He’s leading here purely on the strength of name recognition. A guy who’s barely above water in popularity among his own party, is facing a race against one well-liked congressman in Byrne, and may yet have to cope with competition from Brooks for the populist vote is not winning a primary for a Senate seat.

Which brings us to the other obstacle. Even if the establishment fails to unite behind a rival in the interest of stopping Moore and he ends up finishing first, unless he takes 50 percent of the vote he’ll be forced into a runoff with the second-place finisher. (That’s what happened in the 2017 special election, you may remember.) And there’s no way Moore is taking 50 percent against a multi-candidate field with participants as formidable as Byrne in it. His best-case scenario is that he ends up in a runoff, and the runoff would quickly become a referendum on the question of “We’re not actually going to nominate this guy again, are we?” How does he win that? In a test of Moore vs. Not Moore, Alabamians will remember 2017 and opt for Not Moore. Particularly with Trump goading them to do so in the interest of holding the Senate.

The only wrinkle is that Brooks, who’s in second in the poll, isn’t sure to run and thrives with the sort of populist voter who might prefer Moore as a second choice. If Brooks ends up passing, Moore might be stronger than everyone expects. Although still not strong enough to win. Exit quotation from Twitter pal CuffyMeh, reading this poll: “Looks like Roy Moore is finally getting out of the teens.”

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