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Westlake Legal Group > Unemployment

Wow: Unemployment Under Trump Hits 50 Year Low, Trump Poll Numbers Ride High

Westlake Legal Group Trump-ThumbsUp Wow: Unemployment Under Trump Hits 50 Year Low, Trump Poll Numbers Ride High Unemployment Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Featured Post Economy donald trump creating jobs Capitalism Allow Media Exception

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Eugene, Ore., Friday, May 6, 2016. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Democrats want to do anything they can to attack Trump and try to cloud the view of the facts.

Because they really can’t handle the truth. It’s the truth that’s going to do them in 2020.

It’s pretty hard to get around the great economy that President Donald Trump has ushered in.

The latest report shows that unemployment has hit an incredible 50 year low.

From CNBC:

The jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, matching a level it last saw in December 1969. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also fell, declining 0.3 percent points to 6.9%, matching its lowest in nearly 19 years and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.

The rate for Hispanics hit a record low, while the level for African Americans stayed at the lowest number ever.

Those great numbers also pushed the stock market up. The Dow rallied more than 350 points after the report came out.

Sorry, Democrats, some of you who hoped a recession might hit and do Trump in, continue to be out of luck.

And even in the climate of Democrats, with the aid of media, throwing everything they can at Trump, his poll numbers are defying expectations.

In spite of everything, Trump’s numbers are the highest of the year at 49% approval in the Hill Harris Survey and Trump’s raking in record dollars in the third quarter, at $125 million, a lot of it from people angry with the whole impeachment charade.

Doubtless, they’ll pull out more stuff to try to throw at Trump, especially come 2020.

But it’s really hard to argue with success.

Especially when all your opponents have are tired old socialist thoughts

As the CNBC poll article accurately notes, Americans voted Trump in as the change agent.

And he’s delivering.

The post Wow: Unemployment Under Trump Hits 50 Year Low, Trump Poll Numbers Ride High appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group Trump-ThumbsUp-300x161 Wow: Unemployment Under Trump Hits 50 Year Low, Trump Poll Numbers Ride High Unemployment Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Featured Post Economy donald trump creating jobs Capitalism Allow Media Exception   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Hiring Slowed in September as Unemployment Rate Fell to a 50-Year Low

The cavalcade of payroll gains continued for the 108th month in September, pushing down the jobless rate to a half-century low and countering anxieties that had been piqued by slowing global growth, declining factory orders and a jittery stock market.

Employers kept hiring at a steady if unremarkable pace, adding 136,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported on Friday. And the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent.

The report capped a week of otherwise disappointing economic news. Manufacturing activity in the United States fell for the second month in a row, while the World Trade Organization predicted that the growth in global trade would slacken significantly. A key measure of activity in the services sector — which accounts for two-thirds of the country’s output — also cooled.

“It’s great news to hit a record low on unemployment,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said. The tightening labor market, though, failed to lift wages; the 12-month growth rate fell to 2.9 percent, from 3.2 percent in August.

Clearly, the economy’s employment engine has lost some of its spark. Last year, an average of 223,000 jobs were created each month, thanks in part to the temporary pick-me-up delivered by tax cuts and increased government spending. The average for the first nine months of this year is 161,000.

That falloff alone is not cause for alarm. A decline was expected now that the recovery has passed its 10-year anniversary, and there are more job postings than job seekers. The unemployment rate has been skimming along the baseboards. The jobless rates for Hispanics and for workers without a high-school diploma were the lowest on record. And many Americans who had dropped out of the labor force because they were too discouraged to look for work or couldn’t find sufficiently attractive offers, have now rejoined.

President Trump celebrated the report, while taking a swipe at critics who want Congress to impeach him.

Still, the government’s monthly roundup contained enough conflicting data that optimists and pessimists around the country and in Washington could find evidence to support their outlook.

Federal Reserve policymakers will be parsing its contents before their scheduled meeting at the end of October.

Central bank officials have been split about the need for a third cut in their benchmark interest rate. On Friday, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said, “While not everyone fully shares economic opportunities and the economy faces some risks, overall it is — as I like to say — in a good place.” He added: “Our job is to keep it there as long as possible.”

On Wall Street, expectations that the Fed would pare borrowing costs have been building this week as news about slowing growth rolled in.

[Analysis from The Upshot: Jobs numbers have something for everyone.]

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, described the latest report as reassuring. “All of us have been on edge a little bit with declines on readings in the service sector, fearing that the trade problems would jump the fence from heavy to lighter industries,” he said.

Friday’s report revised job figures for July and August, adding 45,000 to the totals. “We’re on a three-month track of over 150,000 jobs per month, and that says to me that the economy is still expanding well,” Mr. Tannenbaum said.

The report helped buoy investors, after the S&P 500 had fallen more than 2 percent in the first three days of October. The index was up 1.4 percent Friday afternoon.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, was unconvinced that the clipped pace of hiring was the natural byproduct of an economy at full capacity. “The problem with that story is that wage growth dropped quite significantly,” he said. “Trade uncertainty is why we’re seeing a jobs slowdown and why the wage numbers are slowing.”

Mr. Trump set off another retaliatory volley in his trade war last month when he increased tariffs on consumer goods from China and threatened to extend the import tax to even more products.

When Mr. Slok saw that new export orders had declined recently, he said: “I almost fell out of my chair. That can only be driven by trade.”

“The economy is still doing O.K.,” he said. “But the uncertainty from the trade war continues to be a cloud. Manufacturing is certainly is trouble.”

Mr. Trump has repeatedly placed manufacturing at the center of his economic strategy. Nonetheless, that sector is suffering the most from prolonged trade tensions. Companies in the business of making goods — as opposed to those that deliver services like hospitals and restaurants — are much more dependent on sales to other countries and supply chains that wend around the globe.

Last spring, manufacturers were adding as many as 25,000 jobs a month. In recent months, the average trickled to a few thousand, and in September, the sector lost 2,000 jobs. (The United Auto Workers’ strike against General Motors began after the government completed its survey of employers and is not reflected in this report.)

But Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America, a staffing firm, is not convinced that trade friction is responsible for the drop.

“The number of manufacturing jobs we have open outpaces the number of candidates,” she said. “It’s become more difficult to fill a job in the last four months.”

Banner Metals, a tool-and-die maker in Columbus, Ohio, plans to add three people to its 40-person staff next year. “Our business has not slowed down in any way,” said Bronson Jones, the chief executive and a part owner. “We’re actually growing.”

With a little less than 13 million workers, the manufacturing sector accounts for roughly 11 percent of the country’s output, but it tends to loom larger in policy debates.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_161013891_742a81ae-4740-4568-afad-183152c2270e-articleLarge Hiring Slowed in September as Unemployment Rate Fell to a 50-Year Low Wages and Salaries United States Economy Unemployment Trump, Donald J Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Factories and Manufacturing

Applicants talked to recruiters last month at a job fair in Miami for people 50 or older. Monthly hiring has slowed this year, but the labor market remains tight.CreditLynne Sladky/Associated Press

The health and education sectors remain the economy’s most potent job creators.

Before this month’s stall, wage growth over all had been picking up, putting more money in consumers’ pockets. As long as Americans continue to spend, the economy will keep humming.

But economic confidence can be fickle. Worries about tariffs and the general direction of the economy are spooking those outside the manufacturing sector, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which conducted the survey of service businesses.

The dissonant economic cues are pulling some employers in different directions.

“What I’m hearing is different from what I’m seeing,” said Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a staffing firm in Chicago. With so much uncertainty, some chief executives say they are afraid of having too much capital invested in their business.

“But what I’m seeing is that people are still hiring,” he said. His firm’s revenue, he said, is up 15 percent from last year, and placements are up 8 percent.

Hiring in professional and business services has kept pumping jobs into the economy at a steady rate, averaging 35,000 a month since the start of the year.

The global accounting firm EY, formerly Ernst & Young, plans to hire 15,000 workers by the end of June, said Dan Black, global recruiting leader. “There’s a lot of signals of a slowdown,” he said, “but we continue to be very bullish on hiring here.”

“No matter what the economy is doing,” he added, “you still need your taxes done, and you still need your books audited.”

The retail trade sector, by contrast, continued to contract, losing 11,000 jobs.

The government’s monthly estimates, which are based on two separate surveys, one of households and the other of employers, will be revised twice more.

The president’s trade strategy has support from some sectors that embrace his get-tough approach — even if they are suffering from the fallout. But several industries and small businesses are worried.

Adam Briggs, vice president for sales and marketing for Trans-Matic, a precision metal stamper in Holland, Mich., said the family-owned firm is feeling the strains of the tariffs and a slowing economy. The company has had to raise prices because the cost of raw materials not available in the United States has gone up, Mr. Briggs said. At least one of his clients left to look for a supplier in Europe.

“We’re struggling, but our customers are struggling with it too,” he said.

Last year, the company employed more than 300 people in Holland. That number is down to 275, through a combination of attrition and voluntary separations, Mr. Briggs said.

Unpredictability disquiets business managers and markets. “Anything that relates to uncertainty is not good for business and household spending, said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley. And trade tensions — as well as the political turmoil surrounding Mr. Trump as congressional Democrats pursue an impeachment inquiry — fuel uncertainty, she said.

Politics is something that Chris Murphy, managing director of ThoughtWorks, a global software and digital transformation consultancy, rarely talks about with clients. The one exception? “The uncertainty created across industries by the trade war in China,” he said. “People are keen to see it resolved and go away sooner rather than later.”

Matt Phillips and Jeanna Smialek contributed reporting.

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Mixed bag from BLS: Unemployment and new jobs both decline in September

Westlake Legal Group trump-shrug Mixed bag from BLS: Unemployment and new jobs both decline in September wages Unemployment Trade War The Blog jobs report Economy donald trump China

Now has the summer of our middling economic content extended into the autumn. Job creation in September continued its slowing pace, only adding 136,000 jobs to the US economy, while wages stagnated. The good news is that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a change made even better since it isn’t tied to any exodus from the workforce:

The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up. …

In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent. The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent. Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million. …

The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in September. The employment-population ratio, at 61.0 percent, was little changed over the month but was up by 0.6 percentage point over the year.

The last time the unemployment rate hit 3.5% was when Richard Nixon was in his first year as president, CBS’ Mark Knoller observes. That’s unquestionably good news, as is the fact that it didn’t take a drop in the workforce numbers to achieve it. The Household survey does have some odd anomalies that might have contributed to it, such as a drop in 275K in the unemployed and an addition of 391K in the employed categories, which should have needed an additional 400,000 jobs or so to accomplish from the Establishment survey. However, it’s the civilian labor force number alone that provides the denominator for the U-3 measurement, and that looks relatively stable at +117,000.

The BLS provided more good news in the revisions, which added 45,000 jobs to the previous two months. As their chart shows, however, that’s not enough to move any of the last six months above the maintenance level for keeping up with population growth:

Westlake Legal Group bls-chart-2019-09 Mixed bag from BLS: Unemployment and new jobs both decline in September wages Unemployment Trade War The Blog jobs report Economy donald trump China

Job creation has been slowing since late last year, which makes the warning signs on wages look more ominous. Hourly earnings dropped slightly in September and hours didn’t expand, suggesting that the market has at least temporarily become static:

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $28.09, were little changed (-1 cent), after rising by 11 cents in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 2.9 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents to $23.65. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in September. In manufacturing, the average workweek and overtime remained at 40.5 hours and 3.2 hours, respectively. The average workweek of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees held at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

That annual wage-growth number is the lowest in 14 months, CNBC noted. Until now, the continued growth in wages appeared to indicate a healthy job market. This is only one month, but it’s still a warning about what the impact of a low-job-creation environment will eventually produce. The Trump administration needs that wage growth to keep pace in order to maintain consumer confidence and its political support.

CNBC’s Jeff Cox reported the results as a seriously mixed bag for the economy:

The jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, matching a level it last saw in December 1969. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also fell, declining 0.3 percent points to 6.9%, matching its lowest in nearly 19 years and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.

Also, the jobless rate for Hispanics also hit a new record low, while the level for African Americans maintained its lowest ever.

At the same time, the economy saw another sluggish month of growth. The nonfarm payrolls count missed the 145,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones; the expectation on the jobless rate was to hold steady at 3.7%.

Wages also were a disappointment, with average hourly earnings little changed over the month and up just 2.9% for the year, the lowest increase since July 2018.

The AP’s Christopher Rugaber writes that this sense of slowing down has already begun to impact consumer behavior:

The job market is the economy’s main bulwark. As long as hiring is solid enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising, most Americans will likely remain confident enough to spend, offsetting other drags and propelling the economy forward.

But a slump in hiring or a rise in the unemployment rate in coming months could discourage consumers from spending as freely as they otherwise might during the holiday shopping season.

Consumers are still mostly optimistic, and their spending has kept the economy afloat this year. But they may be growing more cautious. Consumer confidence dropped sharply in September, according to the Conference Board, a business research group, although it remains at a high level.

Americans also reined in their spending in August after several months of healthy gains. The 0.1% increase in consumer spending that month was the weakest in six months.

At some point, Donald Trump may have to decide which is more important to his re-election chances — winning a long trade war with China or a revitalized job-creation market with a jump in wages. That point is rapidly approaching.

The post Mixed bag from BLS: Unemployment and new jobs both decline in September appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group trump-shrug-300x162 Mixed bag from BLS: Unemployment and new jobs both decline in September wages Unemployment Trade War The Blog jobs report Economy donald trump China   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

U.S. Added 136,000 Jobs in September; Unemployment Rate at 3.5%

Westlake Legal Group 04jobs1-facebookJumbo U.S. Added 136,000 Jobs in September; Unemployment Rate at 3.5% Wages and Salaries United States Economy Unemployment Trump, Donald J Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Factories and Manufacturing

The Labor Department will release the latest hiring and unemployment figures for September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The monthly report provides one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy. Here’s what to watch for:

  • Wall Street analysts expect the report to show that job creation picked up last month, with employers creating 147,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics initially reported that 130,000 jobs were created in August, a figure likely to be revised Friday.

  • Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 3.7 percent.

  • Average hourly earnings are expected to show a rise by 0.2 percent, after moving up 0.4 percent in August. That would bring the year-over-year increase to 3.2 percent.

The Labor Department’s monthly report has taken on added significance after a week of disappointing economic news and stock market skids.

Last year, an average of 223,000 jobs were created each month, thanks in part to the temporary pick-me-up delivered by tax cuts and increased government spending. This year, the monthly average through August has been 159,000. That falloff was expected now that the recovery has passed its 10-year anniversary and there are more job postings than job seekers. The unemployment rate has remained below 4 percent for the last seven months. And many Americans who had dropped out of the labor force — because they were too discouraged to look, or couldn’t find sufficiently attractive offers — have rejoined.

Job growth of less than 100,000 would set off some alarms. But unusually meager payroll gains one month can be reversed by a blockbuster increase the next. What matters is the longer-run pattern.

“Numbers below 100,000 on a sustained basis would worry me,” said Ben Herzon, an executive director at Macroeconomic Advisers, “but numbers in the low 100,000s would not be cause for concern.”

The September reading from the Labor Department is the last monthly report to be released before Federal Reserve officials meet on Oct. 29 and 30.

Because policymakers have split on the need for another rate cut, the employment report could be more pivotal in the decision than usual. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has noted that the labor market and consumer spending are the two of the strongest parts of the economy.

On Wall Street, expectations that the central bank would pare borrowing costs for a third time this month has been building this week as news about slowing growth rolled in. A weak report would encourage policymakers who favor lowering benchmark interest rates again.

The United Auto Workers’ strike against General Motors has shut down 34 factories in the United States for more than two weeks. But the walkout by 49,000 workers will not be reflected in the government’s monthly report because the strike started after the government surveyed employers.

In August, the job totals were elevated by the hiring of 25,000 temporary census workers. Mr. Herzon estimates that Census Bureau hires in September were half that number. And those gains will be reversed after a few months.

President Trump has repeatedly placed the manufacturing sector at the center of his economic strategy. Nonetheless, that sector is suffering the most from prolonged trade tensions. Companies in the business of making goods — as opposed to those that deliver services, like hospitals and restaurants — are much more dependent on sales to other countries and supply chains that wend around the globe.

Last spring, manufacturers were adding as many as 25,000 jobs a month. In recent months, the average had been closer to 3,000.

News this week that manufacturing activity in the United States fell for the second month in a row set off a stock-market tumble.

With 11.6 million workers, the sector accounts for about 11 percent of the country’s output, but it tends to loom larger in policy debates. Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, noted that a key measure of manufacturing activity reflected in a survey by the Institute for Supply Management “has a better track record of being a leading indicator of downturns, so I do think there is something to the hold that it has on confidence.”

A decline in manufacturing hires is likely to fuel anxieties about the economy.

Mr. Powell’s pride in the labor market’s performance is well grounded. The jobless rate has skimmed along near half-century lows. Sidelined workers have been lured from living rooms and classrooms back into the workplace. New applications for unemployment insurance have not risen noticeably in recent months.

“One of the best stories about labor market in the last two years is that the job market has done so well, it is now reaching into further corners and providing opportunities to those who had not enjoyed them,” Mr. Tannenbaum said. “This is the way the economy is supposed to work.”

The tight labor market as well as minimum wage increases in several states and cities have helped bulk up paychecks for workers at the lowest end of the salary spectrum. And it means that when some workers, say, in retail lose a job, they have an easier time finding another.

The most highly sought after workers, though, are often the most highly skilled and the most highly paid — a phenomenon that tends to exacerbate income inequality. So keep an eye on not just the total number of payroll gains, but also on what kinds of jobs are being created.

Keep an eye on whether restaurateurs are hiring. A drop in leisure and hospitality job gains could indicate that consumers are not feeling as free to spend.

“Dining out is the single most highly discretionary category,” said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist for Morgan Stanley. “It responds in kneejerk fashion when people are uncertain about job security and income.”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

September Jobs Report: What to Watch For

Westlake Legal Group 04jobs1-facebookJumbo September Jobs Report: What to Watch For Wages and Salaries United States Economy Unemployment Trump, Donald J Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Factories and Manufacturing

The Labor Department will release the latest hiring and unemployment figures for September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The monthly report provides one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy. Here’s what to watch for:

  • Wall Street analysts expect the report to show that job creation picked up last month, with employers creating 147,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics initially reported that 130,000 jobs were created in August, a figure likely to be revised Friday.

  • Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 3.7 percent.

  • Average hourly earnings are expected to show a rise by 0.2 percent, after moving up 0.4 percent in August. That would bring the year-over-year increase to 3.2 percent.

The Labor Department’s monthly report has taken on added significance after a week of disappointing economic news and stock market skids.

Last year, an average of 223,000 jobs were created each month, thanks in part to the temporary pick-me-up delivered by tax cuts and increased government spending. This year, the monthly average through August has been 159,000. That falloff was expected now that the recovery has passed its 10-year anniversary and there are more job postings than job seekers. The unemployment rate has remained below 4 percent for the last seven months. And many Americans who had dropped out of the labor force — because they were too discouraged to look, or couldn’t find sufficiently attractive offers — have rejoined.

Job growth of less than 100,000 would set off some alarms. But unusually meager payroll gains one month can be reversed by a blockbuster increase the next. What matters is the longer-run pattern.

“Numbers below 100,000 on a sustained basis would worry me,” said Ben Herzon, an executive director at Macroeconomic Advisers, “but numbers in the low 100,000s would not be cause for concern.”

The September reading from the Labor Department is the last monthly report to be released before Federal Reserve officials meet on Oct. 29 and 30.

Because policymakers have split on the need for another rate cut, the employment report could be more pivotal in the decision than usual. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has noted that the labor market and consumer spending are the two of the strongest parts of the economy.

On Wall Street, expectations that the central bank would pare borrowing costs for a third time this month has been building this week as news about slowing growth rolled in. A weak report would encourage policymakers who favor lowering benchmark interest rates again.

President Trump has repeatedly placed the manufacturing sector at the center of his economic strategy. Nonetheless, that sector is suffering the most from prolonged trade tensions. Companies in the business of making goods — as opposed to those that deliver services, like hospitals and restaurants — are much more dependent on sales to other countries and supply chains that wend around the globe.

Last spring, manufacturers were adding as many as 25,000 jobs a month. In recent months, the average had been closer to 3,000.

News this week that manufacturing activity in the United States fell for the second month in a row set off a stock-market tumble.

With 11.6 million workers, the sector accounts for about 11 percent of the country’s output, but it tends to loom larger in policy debates. Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, noted that a key measure of manufacturing activity reflected in a survey by the Institute for Supply Management “has a better track record of being a leading indicator of downturns, so I do think there is something to the hold that it has on confidence.”

A decline in manufacturing hires is likely to fuel anxieties about the economy.

Mr. Powell’s pride in the labor market’s performance is well grounded. The jobless rate has skimmed along near half-century lows. Sidelined workers have been lured from living rooms and classrooms back into the workplace. New applications for unemployment insurance have not risen noticeably in recent months.

“One of the best stories about labor market in the last two years is that the job market has done so well, it is now reaching into further corners and providing opportunities to those who had not enjoyed them,” Mr. Tannenbaum said. “This is the way the economy is supposed to work.”

The tight labor market as well as minimum wage increases in several states and cities have helped bulk up paychecks for workers at the lowest end of the salary spectrum. And it means that when some workers, say, in retail lose a job, they have an easier time finding another.

The most highly sought after workers, though, are often the most highly skilled and the most highly paid — a phenomenon that tends to exacerbate income inequality. So keep an eye on not just the total number of payroll gains, but also on what kinds of jobs are being created.

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

September Jobs Report: What to Watch For

Westlake Legal Group 04jobs1-facebookJumbo September Jobs Report: What to Watch For Wages and Salaries United States Economy Unemployment Trump, Donald J Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Factories and Manufacturing

The Labor Department will release the latest hiring and unemployment figures for September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The monthly report provides one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy. Here’s what to watch for:

  • Wall Street analysts expect the report to show that job creation picked up last month, with employers creating 147,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics initially reported that 130,000 jobs were created in August, a figure likely to be revised Friday.

  • Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 3.7 percent.

  • Average hourly earnings are expected to show a rise by 0.2 percent, after moving up 0.4 percent in August. That would bring the year-over-year increase to 3.2 percent.

The Labor Department’s monthly report has taken on added significance after a week of disappointing economic news and stock market skids.

Last year, an average of 223,000 jobs were created each month, thanks in part to the temporary pick-me-up delivered by tax cuts and increased government spending. This year, the monthly average through August has been 159,000. That falloff was expected now that the recovery has passed its 10-year anniversary and there are more job postings than job seekers. The unemployment rate has remained below 4 percent for the last seven months. And many Americans who had dropped out of the labor force — because they were too discouraged to look, or couldn’t find sufficiently attractive offers — have rejoined.

Job growth of less than 100,000 would set off some alarms. But unusually meager payroll gains one month can be reversed by a blockbuster increase the next. What matters is the longer-run pattern.

“Numbers below 100,000 on a sustained basis would worry me,” said Ben Herzon, an executive director at Macroeconomic Advisers, “but numbers in the low 100,000s would not be cause for concern.”

The September reading from the Labor Department is the last monthly report to be released before Federal Reserve officials meet on Oct. 29 and 30.

Because policymakers have split on the need for another rate cut, the employment report could be more pivotal in the decision than usual. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has noted that the labor market and consumer spending are the two of the strongest parts of the economy.

On Wall Street, expectations that the central bank would pare borrowing costs for a third time this month has been building this week as news about slowing growth rolled in. A weak report would encourage policymakers who favor lowering benchmark interest rates again.

President Trump has repeatedly placed the manufacturing sector at the center of his economic strategy. Nonetheless, that sector is suffering the most from prolonged trade tensions. Companies in the business of making goods — as opposed to those that deliver services, like hospitals and restaurants — are much more dependent on sales to other countries and supply chains that wend around the globe.

Last spring, manufacturers were adding as many as 25,000 jobs a month. In recent months, the average had been closer to 3,000.

News this week that manufacturing activity in the United States fell for the second month in a row set off a stock-market tumble.

With 11.6 million workers, the sector accounts for about 11 percent of the country’s output, but it tends to loom larger in policy debates. Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, noted that a key measure of manufacturing activity reflected in a survey by the Institute for Supply Management “has a better track record of being a leading indicator of downturns, so I do think there is something to the hold that it has on confidence.”

A decline in manufacturing hires is likely to fuel anxieties about the economy.

Mr. Powell’s pride in the labor market’s performance is well grounded. The jobless rate has skimmed along near half-century lows. Sidelined workers have been lured from living rooms and classrooms back into the workplace. New applications for unemployment insurance have not risen noticeably in recent months.

“One of the best stories about labor market in the last two years is that the job market has done so well, it is now reaching into further corners and providing opportunities to those who had not enjoyed them,” Mr. Tannenbaum said. “This is the way the economy is supposed to work.”

The tight labor market as well as minimum wage increases in several states and cities have helped bulk up paychecks for workers at the lowest end of the salary spectrum. And it means that when some workers, say, in retail lose a job, they have an easier time finding another.

The most highly sought after workers, though, are often the most highly skilled and the most highly paid — a phenomenon that tends to exacerbate income inequality. So keep an eye on not just the total number of payroll gains, but also on what kinds of jobs are being created.

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

NYC Sees Thousands of Jobs Disappear Thanks to Wage Hike as Leftist Pretend It’s Not Happening

Westlake Legal Group Minimum-wage-protest-New-York-620x414 NYC Sees Thousands of Jobs Disappear Thanks to Wage Hike as Leftist Pretend It’s Not Happening Wage hike Unemployment raise the wage Politics New York City New York jobs Front Page Stories Fight for 15 Featured Story Economy Allow Media Exception

At this point, it’s undeniable that hiking the minimum wage hurts businesses and the employees who work there. Protesters think they’re securing more money for lower-income workers, but there is no magic in economics. While some workers were fortunate enough to keep their jobs with $15 an hour, they were also likely to have their hours cut back while everyone else lost their jobs due to forced cutbacks.

It’s happened pretty much everywhere it’s been tried, especially in New York City where over 75 percent of restaurants had to cut back on staff thanks to wage hikes, and the problem only continued to worsen as time went on.

Now, as the New York Post reveals, the problem is getting to a point where long standing New York restaurants are closing down and even more staff are losing their jobs:

Big Apple restaurants are feeling the heat from minimum-wage hikes, cutting staff hours and even closing kitchens as they struggle to shoulder the extra payroll costs.

Gabriela’s Restaurant and Tequila Bar, a margarita and taco staple on the Upper West Side for the past 25 years, is closing at the end of September — and it has been a long, painful road downhill, according to its mom-and-pop owners.

Since the $15-an-hour minimum wage hit New York City in December, Liz and Nat Milner say, they’ve been forced to slash their full- and part-time staff to 45 people from 60. Quality has suffered, they admit, and customers have noticed: They’re not coming in like they used to, and when they do, they’re spending less.

Jazz Shaw of Hot Air reported on this and further added that some 4,000 jobs have been lost in New York thanks to the wage hike:

It’s not just the loss of local watering holes and eateries that are the problem. All of the jobs they support are going away too. As of August, the restaurant industry in the Big Apple has shed a shocking 4,000 jobs this year.

You’d think that this kind of loss of livliehood would make people stop and reassess their beliefs about what is and isn’t the correct course of action. Instead, it caused people to lash out at Shaw for daring to come to the conclusion that these loss of jobs were the result of their activism.

As you can see below, they put up every barrier they can to make it seem like Shaw was telling a blatant lie.

And so on, and so on.

The city of New York contains some 8 million people and has over 25,000 places to eat at. If a shop closes down, it’s not at all difficult to find something else close by. So what seems to be happening is that many are still being served their food and drink without interruption, and as such are calling the entire trouble with New York’s minimum wage causing job losses a lie.

This is quite possibly one of the most first-world spoiled positions a person can take. The data that people are losing their jobs due to wage hikes aren’t just coming from right-wing reporters and commentators, this is information being given to us by business owners and publications like the Wall Street Journal.

If that doesn’t do it for you, then perhaps the fact that 74 percent of economists called the wage hike a bad idea and predicted this very thing would happen.

Just because they don’t notice it happening in New York due to its volume, doesn’t mean it’s not happening. But it’s worse than just mistaking surface level experience with facts. Those who are in support of raising the minimum wage are purposely turning a blind eye to the trouble their positions are causing in the face of mounting evidence.

This could be because they refuse to face the fact that their actions meant to help people are actually having the opposite effect, and that their take about how economics work has been wrong all along. That their opponents were right.

Instead of backing off, they’re more than willing to let the destruction continue and people lose their livelihoods so that they can keep on believing that they’re right. If a restaurant closes down, they’ll find an excuse for it and go to a different one. If that one closes down they’ll repeat the process. As things stagnate they’ll find something to blame for it like the policies of those pesky Republicans and that filthy pro-capitalist sentiment.

This is some head in the sand nonsense, and it’s actually hurting people.

The post NYC Sees Thousands of Jobs Disappear Thanks to Wage Hike as Leftist Pretend It’s Not Happening appeared first on RedState.

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Don Lemon and Guest: Obama was Great for Them, but Trump Spits in Black People’s Faces

Westlake Legal Group tree-water-nature-forest-grass-horizon-664146-pxhere.com_-620x413 Don Lemon and Guest: Obama was Great for Them, but Trump Spits in Black People’s Faces Unemployment Uncategorized racism Race keith boykin Front Page Stories Featured Story Economy donald trump Don Lemon democrats baltimore 2020

 

 

Don Lemon has a message for black voters: Sure, your unemployment rate may be at a record low, but don’t vote for Trump.

As reported by Newsbusters, on Friday, Don and his CNN guest downplayed August’s headline-grabbing 5.5% black unemployment in favor of highlighting the President’s “racist behavior.”

Besides, the black prosperity was all ‘causa Obama.

Panelist Keith Boykin BOOYAHed for Barack:

“It started going down though in the Obama administration. It was 16.8 percent in March of 2010. And it dropped to 7.8 percent; a 54 percent reduction under President Obama. And Trump…while this was happening, denied that it was even happening. He called the numbers ‘fake news;’ until he came into office, and suddenly all the numbers he said were fake were magically real. And so, he took credit for the momentum that…has occurred since that time.

“So we have 8.9 percent in the Obama presidency, and down by 2.5 percent in this presidency. As you said, it is good news. It is a good trend. But it didn’t start under this president, and the numbers actually declined much stronger under the former president.”

Well there ya go.

Plus, racism.

Here’s what Keith believes black people think:

“I think the message is something that does not resonate with black communities and brown communities simply because of the rhetoric that has come out of the White House.”


To what rhetoric was he referring?

Apparently, some Klannish stuff from that guy who spits in the face of non-whites:

“And so, I think I said almost two years ago to the day on this program, that if someone spits in your face and then hands you a napkin, you don’t get to say ‘Thank you.’”

Don seemed to really like that.

Go sour, Lemon:

“As you say, if someone spits in your face and hands you a napkin, how…what is that supposed to…I don’t understand that argument. Does that mean that the only part of your brain, or the only part of our being that matters is money? Rather than how someone treats you and what someone says about you?”

What has Donald Trump said about the black race?

Oh, here it is; Don posed the following question:

“How do black voters in 2020 weight these unemployment numbers against the President’s racist behavior [indecipherable]– Charlottesville, slamming Baltimore, ‘rodent infested,’ and, you know, go on and on?”

Has Baltimore become the black race? Is it racist to criticize that particular city or refer to a rodent infestation? If so, watch Democrats — including the city’s black mayor — do racist things here, here, and here.

Strange new definition, though; here’ s the old one: the judging of an individual solely by his or her race.

Regardless, the President — it sounds like — has done nothin’ good.

Keith pressed harder, in case you missed it the first time:

“Donald Trump had little to nothing to do with the drop in unemployment for African-Americans. No one can…no one who talks about this in the Republican Party can cite a single policy contributed by Donald Trump that is responsible for the drop in black unemployment. It’s all because of policies that … that started long ago. It wasn’t the tax cut or anything like that. Policies started long ago in the Obama administration when we started to see the drop. And the other thing is that Obama had the good sense not to go out and brag about it every time that there was a drop in unemployment because he knew that it’s still too high compared to the white unemployment rate.”

And that’s the news.

-ALEX

 

Find all my RedState work here.

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Hiring Slowed in August but Wage Gains Accelerated

The American economy turned in a decent performance last month as businesses grew more cautious about hiring, according to the Labor Department’s monthly employment report released on Friday. About 25,000 of the jobs added were temporary positions for the 2020 census.

Along with consumer spending, the labor market has been a source of stability for the economy, even as several gauges have turned downward and trade anxieties have mounted.

One worrying sign was that the private sector added just 96,000 jobs. Not only was that well below the 150,000 gain that Wall Street analysts were expecting, it was weaker than the pace so far in 2019, and serves as an indication that businesses are becoming a little more reluctant to add head count. The report also revised down job gains for June and July by a total of 20,000.

Paul Ashworth, chief United States economist at Capital Economics, said the headline number in August was “flattered” by the big increase in census hiring. “But even allowing for that, there has been a clear slowdown in trend employment growth, with the three-month and six-month averages both at around 150,000 now, down from about 230,000 a year ago,” he said.

Despite the middling headline number, other data in the report were more positive. The labor force participation rate rose to 63.2 percent, from 63 percent, suggesting that workers who had been on the sidelines are gradually being lured back into the labor market. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4 percent, which is more than analysts had expected. And the length of the average workweek increased after falling in July.

“Though job growth was disappointingly weak in August, the details on earnings and participation remain solid,” said Richard F. Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial. “This tells us that, while resilient, the labor market is by no means immune from the headwinds holding down overall economic growth.”

The August figures come amid increasing concern that the economy is faltering. The manufacturing sector has been weakening, and businesses have been more reluctant to make big investments.

On Wall Street, some short-term debt has been yielding more than longer-term notes, indicating that a recession could be on the horizon. The job report for August is unlikely to allay those worries.

The Federal Reserve is already attuned to data that suggest growth is slowing. For the first time in a decade, it cut its benchmark interest rates in July by a quarter of a percentage point. The central bank is expected to do so again this month.

The first version of the August jobs report tends to be a little weaker, only to be revised up later, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief United States financial economist at Oxford Economics. In nine of the last 10 years, the job gains for August have been revised upward, a statistical quirk caused by the return of college students to school. “The report is less anemic than it looks,” she said.

ImageWestlake Legal Group 06JOBS1-articleLarge Hiring Slowed in August but Wage Gains Accelerated United States Economy Unemployment Recession and Depression Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Interest Rates Federal Reserve System Factories and Manufacturing

Line workers at the General Motors assembly plant in Flint, Mich.CreditJeff Kowalsky/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

One way to think about the economy would be to divide it into two parts: making and serving. The first covers businesses like manufacturing, mining and construction, while the other includes fields like health care, education, retailing and technology. The service economy is much larger, but goods-making sectors often point to what lies ahead. In recent months, manufacturing had paltry job gains even as service industries reported steady growth.

In August, factories added just 3,000 workers, while mining and logging lost 5,000 jobs. On the service side, education and health category experienced a gain of 32,000 and employment in professional and business services was up 37,000.

Earlier this week, a key measure of the factory sector showed activity was contracting, which caught many analysts by surprise. They shouldn’t have been so shocked — factories have been facing headwinds for months from the escalating trade war with China and slowing global growth.

A parallel survey of the service sector published on Thursday presented a much healthier picture.

Why are factories so sensitive to the tariff issue and economic growth abroad? They export a larger share of their products than other businesses, and are highly dependent on suppliers overseas. They feel the bite of tariffs right away and can’t easily alter their supply chains.

“The trade effects are flowing through the economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “The first shoe to drop has been manufacturing, and we do know they will hit the service sector next. They snowball over time.”

She added that she is worried economic growth will fall below the 2 percent rate in the third quarter, after a stronger showing in the first half of the year. “We’ve lost steam; there’s no question we are slowing,” Ms. Swonk said.

Analysts expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by another quarter-point when policymakers meet in two weeks. But some traders had thought that the central bank could opt for a half-point reduction.

Friday’s report strengthens the case for a rate cut this month, although it wasn’t weak enough to suggest that the policymakers will feel compelled to go with the bigger reduction.

A quarter-point cut was the most likely scenario, Ms. Bostjancic of Oxford Economics said.

“When you look at the evidence of the impact from tariffs, slowing global growth and manufacturing in the U.S., it appears to be a lock,” she said. “After September, we expect additional rate cuts in October and December as the downside risks are increasing.”

In part, she said, the rate cuts are intended to compensate for the anticipated drag from the tariffs in 2020. She estimates that tariffs will reduce economic growth by more than a half a percentage point next year.

Musgrave Pencil Company has been feeling the pressure from tariffs, but it has nevertheless been hiring. Musgrave, which is based in Shelbyville, Tenn., would like to add at least five workers to its assembly line, said Henry Hulan, the company’s chairman and a grandson of its founder.

“We’re 50 miles south of Nashville, where there’s distribution centers, auto plants and hospitals so there’s stiff competition to find workers,” Mr. Hulan said. Entry-level jobs at Musgrave pay $10 an hour — an increase of $2 from a year and a half ago.

“We don’t have any educational requirements — no degrees or anything,” he said. “We’re just looking for someone who is hard-working. It’s hard to pay much more when you’re competing with Indonesia and China.”

One of only a handful of American pencil makers left after foreign competition drove many others out of business, Musgrave has been operating for 103 years. It has a work force of more than 90 who turn wooden slats and graphite into pencils with the help of grooves and glue. Some of the machines at the factory date to the 1930s.

In theory, Musgrave should benefit from 15 percent tariffs that went into effect on Chinese-made pencils on Sept. 1. But Musgrave has also been hurt by the Trump administration’s tariffs on components from China. Although China is just one source for wooden slats, the Chinese supplies now carry a tariff of 29.3 percent, up from 4.3 percent before the trade war.

“It’s too early to say if the new tariffs will help us,” Mr. Hulan said, referring to the tariffs on Chinese pencil imports. “But the other tariffs have definitely hurt us.”

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U.S. Added 130,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

Westlake Legal Group 06JOBS1-facebookJumbo U.S. Added 130,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent United States Economy Unemployment Recession and Depression Labor and Jobs International Trade and World Market Interest Rates Federal Reserve System Factories and Manufacturing
  • The economy added 130,000 jobs. Analysts on Wall Street had been expecting a gain of 160,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg.

  • The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. That is close to a 50-year low, and a reflection of how strong the labor market has been recently.

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent, bringing the 12-month increase to 3.2 percent.

The American economy turned in a decent performance last month as businesses grew more cautious about hiring. About 25,000 of the jobs added were temporary positions for the 2020 census.

Along with consumer spending, the labor market has been a source of stability for the economy, even as several gauges have turned downward.

“Many of us are on tenterhooks waiting for this set of numbers,” said Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust in Chicago. “Because of where we are in the business cycle, it’s taken on particular importance.”

Still, the August figures come amid increasing concern that the economy is faltering. The manufacturing sector has been showing signs of weakness, and businesses have been more reluctant to make big investments.

On Wall Street, some short-term debt has been yielding more than longer-term notes, indicating that a recession could be on the horizon. The job report for August is unlikely to allay those worries.

The Federal Reserve is already attuned to signals that growth is slowing. For the first time in a decade, it cut its benchmark interest rates in July by a quarter of a percentage point. The central bank is expected do so again this month.

One way to think about the economy would be to divide it into two parts: making and serving. The first covers businesses like manufacturing, mining and construction, while the other includes fields like health care, education, retailing and technology. The service economy is much larger, but goods-making sectors often point to what lies ahead. In recent months, manufacturing had paltry job gains even as service industries reported steady growth.

Earlier this week, a key measure of the factory sector showed activity was contracting, which caught many analysts by surprise. They shouldn’t have been so shocked — factories have been facing headwinds for months from the escalating trade war with China and slowing global growth.

A parallel survey of the service sector published on Thursday presented a much healthier picture.

Why are factories so sensitive to the tariff issue and economic growth abroad? They export a larger share of their products than other businesses, and are highly dependent on suppliers overseas. They feel the bite of tariffs right away and can’t easily alter their supply chains.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, has concluded that manufacturing is under pressure. Now he wants to see whether the weakness is spreading from the “making” part of the economy to the “serving” part. That would be a precursor to recession.

Mr. Slok also notes weaker capital spending by businesses, another sign that the service economy may soon take a hit.

“If companies are holding back on assembly lines, computers and buildings, then the next step is hiring,” Mr. Slok said. “The trend is not your friend.”

Analysts expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by another quarter-point when policymakers meet in two weeks. But some traders think that the central bank could opt for a half-point reduction.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief United States financial economist at Oxford Economics, said a quarter-point cut was the most likely scenario.

“When you look at the evidence of the impact from tariffs, slowing global growth and manufacturing in the U.S., it appears to be a lock,” Ms. Bostjancic said. “After September, we expect additional rate cuts in October and December as the downside risks are increasing.”

In part, she said, the rate cuts are intended to compensate for the anticipated drag from the tariffs in 2020. She estimates that tariffs will reduce economic growth by more than a half a percentage point next year.

Musgrave Pencil Company has been feeling the pressure from tariffs, but it has nevertheless been hiring. Musgrave, which is based in Shelbyville, Tenn., would like to add at least five workers to its assembly line, said Henry Hulan, the company’s chairman and a grandson of its founder.

“We’re 50 miles south of Nashville, where there’s distribution centers, auto plants and hospitals so there’s stiff competition to find workers,” Mr. Hulan said. Entry-level jobs at Musgrave pay $10 an hour — an increase of $2 from a year and a half ago.

“We don’t have any educational requirements — no degrees or anything,” he said. “We’re just looking for someone who is hard-working. It’s hard to pay much more when you’re competing with Indonesia and China.”

One of only a handful of American pencil makers left after foreign competition drove many others out of business, Musgrave has been operating for 103 years. It has a work force of more than 90 who turn wooden slats and graphite into pencils with the help of grooves and glue. Some of the machines at the factory date to the 1930s.

In theory, Musgrave should benefit from 15 percent tariffs that went into effect on Chinese-made pencils on Sept. 1. But Musgrave has also been hurt by the Trump administration’s tariffs on components from China. Although China is just one source for wooden slats, the Chinese supplies now carry a tariff of 29.3 percent, up from 4.3 percent before the trade war.

“It’s too early to say if the new tariffs will help us,” Mr. Hulan said, referring to the tariffs on Chinese pencil imports. “But the other tariffs have definitely hurt us.”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com