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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Data"

Fake news: Trump slams Fox News poll showing him trailing Biden badly

Westlake Legal Group t-12 Fake news: Trump slams Fox News poll showing him trailing Biden badly Trump The Blog survey republican poll News fox news fake Data biden 2020

I knew he’d start raving about Fox polls this week. It just took a few days longer than expected.

Imagine believing that Fox News, of all people, would rig a scientific poll to *hurt* Trump. Fox’s polling outfit may be the single most respected arm of FNC within the news business; if they were going to trash their reputation for accuracy to put a thumb on the scale in a poll involving POTUS, obviously it wouldn’t be on his opponent’s side of the scale. I doubt even Trump himself thinks there are shenanigans at work here. This is just something he farted out to signal to fans that they should be officially Mad At Fox for publishing news that’s unhelpful to him, whether or not it’s true.

Tonight on “Hannity”: Which arm of the deep state is my own network’s polling bureau working for?

Not all Fox personnel appreciate the criticism:

We’ll see what Shep has to say at 3 p.m. ET. Oh, and contra POTUS, Fox News pollsters didn’t have Trump losing “BIG” to Hillary in 2016. They had the race Clinton 48, Trump 44. The popular vote eventually shook out at Clinton 48, Trump 46. They were practically spot on in gauging national sentiment. Fortunately for POTUS, national sentiment doesn’t matter in a contest of 50 state elections.

Anyway, Team Biden is enjoying his agony. A Quinnipiac poll recently showed Biden up eight points on Trump in Ohio, a state Trump won by eight. That lead is alarming, if unlikely. Now comes today’s Fox poll:

Biden enjoys the largest lead head-to-head with Trump in Fox’s survey but Bernie Sanders also tops him by six points. Interestingly, the two top-tier women candidates don’t fare as well: Trump leads both Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris by a point. In all likelihood those results are less a measure of each candidate’s strength than they are of name recognition. Biden is by far the most well-known of the four, then Bernie via his 2016 run, and then Warren and Harris. All the poll’s really telling us, I think, is that right now voters are very much willing to swap out Trump for a Democrat whom they know and trust and — importantly — who hasn’t sustained any real damage from opponents yet. Obviously Biden’s 10-point lead here won’t hold. All the numbers really mean is that the race begins with undecideds open-minded about making Trump a one-term president.

Speaking of Biden and damage from opponents, he and his team have been … feisty in their comments about Cory Booker and Kamala Harris this week. The latest:

“You can’t be called the architect of mass incarceration and remain quiet,” a Biden ally said. “That’s cruel and personal. That goes against his entire career. You can’t let people say bullsh*t and not respond to it.”

“The gloves are off,” the ally added. “At this point, you have to punch back when someone attacks your record. People want to see him throw a punch. The president is certainly going to come at him hard, so why not start now?”

“I’m not going to be as polite this time,” Biden told donors on Wednesday of next week’s debate. He’s been jabbing at Booker for his record on civil rights as mayor of Newark and head of its problematic police department, and at Harris for dodging on what Medicare for All would do to private insurance and how she plans to pay for it without hiking middle-class taxes. (“Come on! What is this, is this a fantasy world here?”) My favorite counterpunch, though, is from today’s WaPo, in which Biden allies accuse Harris of having betrayed Biden’s dead son Beau:

“I was prepared for them to come after me but I wasn’t prepared for the person coming at me the way she came at me,” Biden told CNN. “She knew Beau. She knows me.”

Harris and the younger Biden developed a bond in the early 2010s as fellow state attorneys general in California and Delaware, respectively, strategizing on cases and comparing notes as politically ambitious future Democratic stars.

That fostered a connection between Harris and the elder Biden; the former vice president endorsed her 2016 Senate run, and some Democrats saw the pair as a dream 2020 ticket. But now some in Biden’s camp consider Harris’s surprise attack, and her ongoing critique of his civil rights record, a personal breach.

“I don’t pretend to know what’s in the vice president’s head — I wasn’t surprised that someone came after him,” said one longtime friend of Beau’s who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. “But I turned to my wife and said, ‘Beau’s flipping in his grave.’”

Is Harris not supposed to try to win lest it desecrate Beau Biden’s memory somehow? Grandpa Joe has a stranglehold momentarily on black voters:

She needs those voters to win. She figured, quite reasonably, that the only way to get black Democrats to question their support for the first black president’s VP is to challenge his civil-rights credentials. So she hit Biden hard on busing. She’s playing for keeps. And old pro Joe Biden, a veteran of more than 10 state and national campaigns, wants people to believe she’s peeing on Beau Biden’s grave because of it. Yeesh.

Anyway, consider Trump’s complaint about the polling from Fox News — Fox News! — a reminder that he’ll absolutely pronounce the result of next year’s election false/rigged if he loses. There’s no fair-and-square “I got beat” outcome here in the offing.

The post Fake news: Trump slams Fox News poll showing him trailing Biden badly appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group t-12-300x153 Fake news: Trump slams Fox News poll showing him trailing Biden badly Trump The Blog survey republican poll News fox news fake Data biden 2020  Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad

Westlake Legal Group t-4 Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad USA Today tweets Trump The Blog squad poll ipsos go back Data

We should lead with the Republican numbers since those are the only ones POTUS himself seems interested in. If the conventional wisdom is right that he’s attacking AOC and her friends because that’ll motivate right-wing turnout, and if Trump is right that pushing his own base’s turnout ever higher is the key to victory next year, then the only opinions he should care about with respect to this Squad fracas are Republican opinions.

The good news, then, is that he has a majority of his own party behind him on this, as usual. The bad news is, well, everything else.

Westlake Legal Group i1 Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad USA Today tweets Trump The Blog squad poll ipsos go back Data

Fifty-seven Republicans agree with him. (It totals 58 there, I know, but that’s because they’re rounding up.) Just 28 percent of Americans overall do, though, while 62 percent disagree — most of them strongly. Among indies the split is a gruesome 19/66. Even the Republican numbers are arguably more of a bad sign for Trump than a good one. A majority say they agree, sure, but POTUS usually enjoys 80-90 percent support from his base. A man who once boasted that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose a vote naturally aims higher than 57 percent of his own party.

Ipsos also asked if the tweets were offensive and un-American:

Westlake Legal Group i2 Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad USA Today tweets Trump The Blog squad poll ipsos go back Data

The GOP divide on whether the tweets were offensive was a narrow 37/42, which speaks volumes about the extent of the misgivings even on the right. I wonder how many answered yes when asked if the tweets were offensive but then also answered yes when asked if they agreed with them because, darn it, that’s what basic partisanship requires nowadays when you get a hostile pollster.

There’s more evidence in the data of GOPers feeling conflicted about this episode. Asked if people who criticize America are un-American, 52 percent of Republicans at least somewhat agreed — but when asked if it’s patriotic “to point out where America falls short and try to do better,” 68 percent agreed with that too. Seventy percent of Republicans somewhat agreed that people who accuse others of racism “usually” do so in bad faith — but 45 percent, a plurality, agreed that telling minorities to “go back where they came from” is indeed racist. Rarely do you see a poll like this where righties seem to be bouncing from question to question between their felt imperative to show loyalty to Trump and their unease with his message.

Which feels like a bad sign for the grand “ramp up the base” strategy. How jacked is the base going to be to turn out because of episodes like this one if many are conflicted about them? And what about the minor detail that the base wasn’t decisive to Trump’s victory in 2016?

Trump won three years ago because he got his base to show up and because he was the lesser of two evils in most undecideds’ eyes. Like it or not, AOC won’t be the Democratic nominee next year. How does he win the lesser-of-two-evils argument this time if he’s pumping out “go back to Africa” messages which 67 percent of the public — and three-quarters of all women — find offensive?

The tweets were a mistake, probably a minor one which will be forgotten soon enough but not if he keeps doubling down on this message going forward. Maybe he’ll wise up and steer clear butttttt probably not:

It is the kind of fight that the president relishes. He has told aides, in fact, that he is pleased with the Democratic reaction to his attacks, boasting that he is “marrying” the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party to the four congresswomen known as “the squad.”…

Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign manager, has been telling people that it is very hard to persuade voters in the current hyperpartisan political landscape.

Mr. Trump’s re-election strategy, instead, is to solidify his base and increase turnout. A major component of that is to portray his opponents as not merely disliking him and his policies, but also disliking America itself.

If he can make voters think they’re actually electing AOC president by electing the actual Democratic nominee president, maybe this’ll work out for him. He’ll have some help from the Dems themselves on that: Look how many presidential candidates have endorsed the Green New Deal in order to stay on the good side of Ocasio-Cortez’s progressive base. But the nominee will naturally shift towards the center during the general election, and he or she will eventually start enjoying media coverage that dwarfs even AOC’s. The party will also attempt to make the Squad scarce once voters begin paying more attention, precisely in order to deprive Trump of the kindling he’s using them for. Democrats might even end up with a nominee disdained by Ocasio-Cortez herself, as she’s had nothing kind to say about Joe Biden thus far. “Go back to Africa” is the highest of high-stakes bets for Trump to place as a winning presidential message.

The post Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group t-4-300x153 Poll: 57% of Republicans agree with Trump’s tweets about the Squad USA Today tweets Trump The Blog squad poll ipsos go back Data  Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com