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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Election"

There’s a Major Electoral Crisis Brewing for 2020

Westlake Legal Group AP_17174023673327 There’s a Major Electoral Crisis Brewing for 2020 State Elections Politics judge Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Faithless Ballot Electors Electoral Crisis Election donald trump democrats constitutional 2020

FILE – This Jan. 25, 2012, file photo, shows the U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington. The Supreme Court enters its final week of work before a long summer hiatus with action expected on the Trump administration’s travel ban and a decision due in a separation of church and state case that arises from a Missouri church playground. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

The 2020 election may be a distant thought for most Americans, but there’s a major electoral crisis brewing.

This involves a case that was just decided in the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals. It deals with a state elector from Colorado named Michael Baca. In 2016, he refused to cast his ballot for Hillary Clinton after she won the state, instead trying to give it to John Kasich as part of what was a fruitless national call to block Trump’s presidency.

My colleague streiff covered this ruling earlier from the angle of how this torpedos the “national popular vote movement,” in which some states have passed laws binding electors to whatever the national popular vote outcome is. There are more ramifications here though.

Here’s a brief recap of the details via the Colorado Sun.

Colorado’s presidential electors do not have to vote for the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote, the powerful 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver ruled Tuesday evening, a decision that could have major ramifications for future elections.

A three-judge panel on the federal appellate court ruled 2-1 against the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office in a case dating back to the 2016 presidential election, when three of the state’s nine presidential electors — the state’s Electoral College voice — tried to vote for candidates other than Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won handily in the state.

Baca was eventually replaced with another elector who would cast their vote for Clinton. It was assumed to be within the authority of the Secretary of State to replace electors who refused to honor the outcome of the state vote in the presidential election.

Then the 10th Circuit ruled.

But the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Williams actions trying to enforce Colorado’s law binding presidential electors to vote for the candidate who won the popular vote violated the Constitution.

“Secretary Williams impermissibly interfered with Mr. Baca’s exercise of his right to vote as a presidential elector,” the court said in a 125-page opinion written by U.S. Circuit Court Judge Carolyn Baldwin McHugh. “Specifically, Secretary Williams acted unconstitutionally by removing Mr. Baca and nullifying his vote for failing to comply with the vote-binding provision.”

In other words, according to the 10th Circuit, every elector in every single state has a constitutional right to cast their electoral vote as they see fit, regardless of how the state actually voted. To be clear, we’ve had faithless electors before. What this latest ruling does though is seemingly invalidate all state laws that seek to curtail the rights of electors to vote for whoever they want. Many states currently have statutes giving them the ability to replace or invalidate the votes of “rogue” electors.

So what’s this mean for 2020? It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins and some significant number of electors don’t use their new found freedom, especially given how tenuous his relationship is with most political establishments (and that’s who picks these electors in most states). Think of a situation where there’s only a small gap between the two candidates and 10-15 electors are able to flip the entire election.

Lest you think I’m arguing the 10th Circuit got this wrong, I actually don’t think so. I think they got this right. There is a very strong case that electors are given the constitutional discretion to vote as they please. In the dissent in this case, the only argument the one no vote could come up with is that the case had no standing because no damages could be awarded.

Regardless, even though I think this was the proper legal decision, this is still setting up to be a wild ride in 2020. We could be staring at a real electoral crisis without an immediate remedy and it’s crazy to think of where that might lead us.

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The post There’s a Major Electoral Crisis Brewing for 2020 appeared first on RedState.

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Democrat John Delaney: It feels like some Dems are rooting for a recession because it’ll hurt Trump next year

Westlake Legal Group jd Democrat John Delaney: It feels like some Dems are rooting for a recession because it’ll hurt Trump next year Trump The Blog recession john delaney Election Economy cheering 2020

Of course they are. Is this even in dispute? It’s taken for granted that Pelosi won’t agree to cut payroll taxes to stimulate the economy even though that idea is normally popular with Democrats because it might help Trump’s chances in 2020. At least one left-leaning talk-show host with a national audience has admitted openly that he’s rooting for a recession. Liberal publications as mainstream as The Atlantic have taken to trying to persuade skeptical readers that no, really, a recession would be bad.

In an age of intense negative hyperpartisanship, how could it be any other way? Left and right activists share the belief that, by definition, whatever loosens the other side’s grip on power is good for the country long-term, whatever pain must be endured short-term to facilitate it. A recession would do that for Democrats, ergo recessions are good now.

Trump is worried about it too, and rightly so:

Westlake Legal Group m-2 Democrat John Delaney: It feels like some Dems are rooting for a recession because it’ll hurt Trump next year Trump The Blog recession john delaney Election Economy cheering 2020

Any president will reap the whirlwind for an economic downturn on his watch but Trump is at special risk because of his trade war with China. It’s his signature policy “achievement,” the thing he’ll be remembered for much more so than the 2017 tax cuts. If China caves and makes a deal he gets the credit. If they don’t and the economy slides, he’ll take the blame. Even though not all of the downturn will be tariff-related, obviously.

The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the pressure may be getting to him:

The aborted Greenland purchase, however, was not necessarily the response many geopolitical strategists had in mind and comes at a time when Mr. Trump has seemed particularly erratic. In recent days, he proudly quoted a radio host declaring that Israeli Jews love him as if he were the “King of Israel” and “the second coming of God,” while Mr. Trump himself accused Jews who vote for Democrats of “great disloyalty.”

Speaking with reporters on the South Lawn on Wednesday, he suggested that God had tapped him to lead a trade war with China. “I am the chosen one,” he said, glancing heavenward. In the Oval Office on Tuesday, he exhibited his universal suspicion. “In my world, in this world, I think nobody can be trusted,” he said. At a rally last week, he ridiculed a man he thought was a protester for being fat, only to learn later that it was one of his supporters.

Some former Trump administration officials in recent days said they were increasingly worried about the president’s behavior, suggesting it stems from rising pressure on Mr. Trump as the economy seems more worrisome and next year’s election approaches.

Imagine the wonders that await us in the daily news cycle next year if the economy really does begin to shrink and Trump has to cope with a rising probability of resounding defeat. Public perceptions of the economy’s health have already begun to dip, in fact — only slightly, but if that’s the start of a trend it’s a mortal threat to his reelection. After all, public perception decides who wins in a democracy, not the underlying reality. It’s conceivable that the economy will have avoided a recession by next November but that the public will have grown bearish nonetheless about continued growth. How does the vote shake out in that case for undecideds — stick with Trump on the theory that he’s our best chance to prevent a downturn or try the Democrat on the theory that Trump’s approach is beginning to fail?

The post Democrat John Delaney: It feels like some Dems are rooting for a recession because it’ll hurt Trump next year appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group jd-300x159 Democrat John Delaney: It feels like some Dems are rooting for a recession because it’ll hurt Trump next year Trump The Blog recession john delaney Election Economy cheering 2020   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Hillary Clinton Gets Schooled by Pro-Clinton Author After She Denied Getting Election Help from Google

Westlake Legal Group google-Hillary-Clinton-1067x600-620x349 Hillary Clinton Gets Schooled by Pro-Clinton Author After She Denied Getting Election Help from Google Social Media Robert Epstein Politics Media Internet Hillary Clinton Google Front Page Stories elections Election donald trump democrats Allow Media Exception 2016

There’s so much evidence that Google was in the tank for Hillary Clinton during the 2016 elections that it’s hard to keep up with it all. As time goes on, the evidence begins to look even worse as researchers who are provenly pro-Clinton even begin to turn against her over it.

On Monday, Trump tweeted about a report that shows Google manipulated 2.6 million to 16 million votes in favor of Clinton during the election, making his victory over her even bigger. He also suggested she should be sued.

Clinton fired back by claiming that study had been “debunked.”

“The debunked study you’re referring to was based on 21 undecided voters. For context that’s about half the number of people associated with your campaign who have been indicted,” tweeted Clinton.

Enter the study’s author and “strong” pro-Clinton supporter, psychologist Dr. Robert Epstein, who wasn’t exactly keen on Clinton telling the world that his study is illegitimate.

Epstein began his own Twitter response by correcting Trump’s assertion that the study said Google was intentionally manipulating search results, but then turned his sights toward Clinton, saying it hurts him to do it but Clinton should be ashamed of herself.

Epstein noted that Clinton relied on Google for “money & votes” with the largest donor being Alphabet/Google. He also noted that people associated with Google offered to run her tech campaign and even created companies for the sole purpose of putting Clinton in office. What’s more, nearly all Google employees at the time donated to Clinton’s campaign.

Now, switching to Hillary Clinton: This is going to hurt me to write, because I & my whole extended family have been strong supporters of the Clintons for decades. I have a framed, signed letter from Bill on the wall near my desk. But Hillary should be ashamed of herself.

Hillary has long depended on Google for both money & votes. Her largest donor in 2016 was Alphabet/Google. Her Chief Technology Officer during the campaign was Stephanie Hannon, a former Google exec. And then there’s Eric Schmidt, longtime head of Google …

A leaked email showed that in 2014 Google’s Eric Schmidt offered to run Hillary’s tech campaign (see pic). In 2015, Schmidt in fact funded The Groundwork, a highly secretive tech company, the sole purpose of which was to put Clinton into office.

About 96% of 2016 campaign donations from Google employees went to Hillary. And Elan Kriegel, Hillary’s Chief Analytics Officer, credits his 2012 tech team, informally supervised by Eric Schmidt, for half of Obama’s win margin: nearly 2.5 million votes.

After all these blows to Clinton, Epstein’s finisher came in the form of asking Clinton why his work is being quoted by prestigious venues across the globe if it’s been so debunked.

Somebody get Clinton a rag to wipe all that egg off her face.

Stories consistently emerged even before the elections that there were clues to Google rigging results in favor of Clinton, beginning with a video that went viral that showed Google’s search results offering positive results about Clinton, even when negative things were typed in.

There were also stories behind the scenes with suggested claims from YouTube personality Phillip DeFranco that he wasn’t included in that year’s YouTube rewind after refusing to make a pro-Clinton video via his channel for Google.

The post Hillary Clinton Gets Schooled by Pro-Clinton Author After She Denied Getting Election Help from Google appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group google-Hillary-Clinton-1067x600-300x169 Hillary Clinton Gets Schooled by Pro-Clinton Author After She Denied Getting Election Help from Google Social Media Robert Epstein Politics Media Internet Hillary Clinton Google Front Page Stories elections Election donald trump democrats Allow Media Exception 2016   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Noted Biblical Scholar Bernie Sanders Explains What the Bible Is Really About

Westlake Legal Group bible-light-rays-620x387 Noted Biblical Scholar Bernie Sanders Explains What the Bible Is Really About The Daily Caller Speech Social Justice Sins Politics Nonsense Jesus Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Election democrats Christianity Bible Bernie Sanders 2020

Just in case you don’t understand what the Bible is “really about,” no worries. Bernie Sanders is here for you and he’s using his noted expertise in Christianity to correct some common misinterpretations about Scripture.

You see, the bible isn’t about the grace and mercy offered via salvation in Christ, not by our own efforts but through his.

Nah, it’s about left-wing social justice.

The two presidential candidates addressed a group of black Christian millennials Saturday at a Black Church PAC’s Youth Leadership Conference in Atlanta. Both referenced the Bible to support their progressive agendas as they campaigned to the faithful.

“The Bible, if it is about anything, is about justice,” Sanders stated at one point during his 20 minutes on stage. “It is about reaching out to people in need. It is about standing up to the wealthy and the powerful.”

Sanders has previously described himself as “not particularly religious,” and said he’s “not actively involved in organized religion,” according to the Washington Post.

No. No, it’s not. Not at all.

The message of the Bible, much less the Gospels, is not “standing up to the wealthy and the powerful.” In fact, it was to the great dismay of many during Jesus’ time on earth that he wasn’t there to overthrow the wealthy and powerful (and oppressive) Romans. The path he walked was infinitely more important than dealings of worldly government and physical want. To pretend otherwise is pure nonsense.

What Bernie is doing is a common misconception harbored by people who otherwise have no real understanding of Christianity. While the New Testament does encourage charity, it was never meant to be forced and it was never meant to be primary. Helping the poor, while good, does not provide salvation nor was Jesus stumping for Medicare for All run by a central government. He was espousing the spiritual truth that those saved by Grace will be transformed into people who love God and love people, stimulating action toward those in need around them. Compulsion makes those acts worthless in God’s eyes.

Of course, Bernie’s greatest sin in this discussion isn’t misrepresenting charity in the Bible. It’s his complete distortion of who Jesus is by claiming the Bible is simply about “justice.” If the Bible were about “justice,” Jesus would have never came because all have fallen short and are deserving of judgement. That would have been justice. Instead, he came and died on the Cross, becoming the propitiation for our sins and saving us from the justice we actually deserved.  The message of the Bible isn’t that people deserve a living wage or whatever other socialist policy Bernie Sanders is stumping for. It’s that we all need a savior and that Jesus is that savior.

In short, if the Bible were about the proliferation of justice, we’d all be in really big trouble.

Politicians, especially those that aren’t even Christians (like Sanders), should steer clear of this kind of ridiculous rewriting of Biblical truth. I realize that Christians are not part of a “protected class” on the left and therefore our beliefs are often subjected to ridicule and distortion, but that doesn’t make it right. Stick to campaign slogans and making promises you can’t keep.

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The post Noted Biblical Scholar Bernie Sanders Explains What the Bible Is Really About appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group gs-bernie-sanders-300x200 Noted Biblical Scholar Bernie Sanders Explains What the Bible Is Really About The Daily Caller Speech Social Justice Sins Politics Nonsense Jesus Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Election democrats Christianity Bible Bernie Sanders 2020   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

The Mooch and Bill Kristol Join Forces to Force Trump Off the 2020 Ballot

Westlake Legal Group ap-anthony-scaramucci2-620x429 The Mooch and Bill Kristol Join Forces to Force Trump Off the 2020 Ballot primary Politics Media Laughable Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Election donald trump democrats CNN Bill Kristol Anthony Scaramucci 2020 #nevertrump

White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci speaks to members of the media outside the White House in Washington, Tuesday, July 25, 2017. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Noway this doesn’t succeed.

NeverTrump Godfather Bill Kristol has apparently had a discussion with Anthony Scaramucci about trying to force President Donald Trump off the ballot in 2020.

The “Never Trump” movement has a new ally: hedge fund boss Anthony Scaramucci, who was fired in 2017 after serving 11 days as communications director in President Donald Trump’s White House.

Anti-Trump pundit and veteran Republican operative Bill Kristol confirmed to CNBC in a few brief text messages that he has spoken to Scaramucci since the SkyBridge Capital founder had a public falling out with Trump this summer. Asked whether he has spoken to Scaramucci about trying to find another presidential candidate to replace Trump on the top of the GOP ticket next year, Kristol said: “Yup.”

Kristol is like the old creepy dude in his 30s who can’t hold a job down but still tries to pick up high school chicks. He just can’t accept that he’s past his prime and no longer has any influence so you get irrational, flailing attempts at gaining relevance like this.

He tried to mount a challenger to Trump in 2016 after the primary ended and failed spectacularly. He then ran the Weekly Standard, once a stalwart conservative publication, into the grave. Because failing up is always a thing among D.C. elite though, he managed to secure funding from a left-wing billionaire to start The Bulwark, which is a blog so low trafficked that there’s noway the writers there are actually making money from what they write. How long the gravy train propping them up lasts is anyone’s guess but there’s apparently no shortage of donors willing to fall for Kristol’s continued grift.

Meanwhile, Scaramucci is in the midst of a feud with the President because that’s the timeline we live in now. After being an adamant supporter of Trump for years, Scaramucci felt he needed to start securing more TV appearances. You know, for the people or something. The quickest way to do that in today’s media environment is to become part of the #Resistance. Sure enough, the press were more than happy to reward his transformation and CNN signed him on as a regular contributor the moment he started saying Trump shouldn’t be re-elected.

These are the people we are told have “principles” and are our moral betters.

To see these two characters try to join forces is comical. It’s also a plan that’s doomed to failure. Whatever level they are truly allying, there’s exactly a 0.0% chance that Donald Trump is forced out as the Republican nominee for 2020. The only way Trump isn’t on the ballot is if he chooses not to be and that’s not going to happen. Even if there was some possible master plan to knock Trump out in 2020, it certainly won’t be carried out by Bill Kristol and Anthony freaking Scaramucci.

These people are nothing by con artists desperate for their next score.

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Enjoying the read? Please visit my archive and check out some of my latest articles.

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The post The Mooch and Bill Kristol Join Forces to Force Trump Off the 2020 Ballot appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group kristol-npc-300x300 The Mooch and Bill Kristol Join Forces to Force Trump Off the 2020 Ballot primary Politics Media Laughable Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Election donald trump democrats CNN Bill Kristol Anthony Scaramucci 2020 #nevertrump   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

AOC Backed DA Candidate for Queens Loses, Signals the Fading Power of the Democrat’s Queen

Westlake Legal Group AlexandraOcasioCortez-620x317 AOC Backed DA Candidate for Queens Loses, Signals the Fading Power of the Democrat’s Queen Tiffany Cabon Queens Politics New York Melinda Katz Front Page Stories Featured Story elections Election district attorney democrats AOC Allow Media Exception Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., listens during a House Financial Services Committee hearing with leaders of major banks, Wednesday, April 10, 2019, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

It was an embarrassing moment for NY Rep. and de facto leader of the Democrats, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, when Queens District Attorney candidate Tiffany Cabán declared herself the winner of her race against Melinda Katz in June. AOC took a victory lap of her own, as she had backed and endorsed Cabán in the race.

“We meet a machine with a movement,” tweeted AOC in response to a tweet prematurely celebrating the election of a 31-year-old queer Latina.

Only Cabán didn’t win.

Cabán had counted her chickens before they hatched due to having a 1,100-vote lead that vanished, and was replaced by a 55-vote loss. According to the Daily Wire, Cabán was forced to concede defeat after she thought her victory was all but assured:

“The pitched seven-week battle for the Democratic nomination for Queens district attorney finally ended on Tuesday, when Tiffany Cabán, whose bid galvanized progressive activists nationwide and exposed deep rifts within the left, conceded to Melinda Katz, the favorite of the state party’s establishment,” The New York Times reported. “The result was a vindication for the Queens Democratic Party, which was left reeling last year after the defeat of former Representative Joseph Crowley by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.”

“They said I didn’t look like a district attorney. They said I was too young. They said we could not build a movement from the grassroots. They said we could not win — but we did it, y’all,” the 31-year-old said back in June, claiming that she had won the race. “We built a campaign to reduce recidivism, decriminalize poverty, end mass incarceration, and to protect our immigrant communities. To keep people rooted in their communities with the access to support and services.”

While Cabán’s loss is mildly interesting, it’s not nearly as interesting as the fact that Ocasio-Cortez, arguably the most powerful person in the Democrat party, had backed a candidate that lost so spectacularly and watched a heavy lead become a loss.

It’s unclear whether or not this loss was a result of Cabán being among the same ideological makeup of AOC, or that Cabán lost out of the voters showing spite for AOC. It could be both of those things or none of them, but I suspect the answer lies somewhere nearby those ideas.

AOC is known as something of a “villain” within her district after she single-handedly ruined the Amazon deal with New York, which would have brought in 25,000 jobs. Even the majority of Democrats view her as the bad guy in this situation by 56 percent.

This could be the first sign that the power and popularity of AOC is fading, or at least, not as powerful as we all thought. More importantly, this could spell disaster for AOC’s reelection.

During the 2010 midterms, then-President Barack Obama’s popularity seemed untouchable as well, but he had the opposite of the Midas touch, as almost every candidate he backed rusted and crumbled instead of turning to gold. We might be witnessing the same thing happening with AOC.

If that is the case, then her days as an elected official are numbered. Time will tell, but if I was AOC, I’d be worried.

The post AOC Backed DA Candidate for Queens Loses, Signals the Fading Power of the Democrat’s Queen appeared first on RedState.

Westlake Legal Group AlexandraOcasioCortez-300x153 AOC Backed DA Candidate for Queens Loses, Signals the Fading Power of the Democrat’s Queen Tiffany Cabon Queens Politics New York Melinda Katz Front Page Stories Featured Story elections Election district attorney democrats AOC Allow Media Exception Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Beto O’Rourke Polls Just Behind a Colonoscopy in New Hampshire

Westlake Legal Group beto-orourke-dh-620x443 Beto O’Rourke Polls Just Behind a Colonoscopy in New Hampshire Politics New Hampshire Front Page Stories Front Page Featured Story Election democrats Democrat primary crash Boston Globe Beto O'Rourke 2020 0%

Beto O’Rourke by DonkeyHotey, licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0/Original

Beto O’Rourke has taken the lead as the 2020 candidate with the most disgusting, politically motivated reaction to the tragic mass shootings that took place last weekend. He’s been making the media rounds calling Trump a white supremacist, blaming him for the El Paso shooting, as well as insinuating anyone who supports him is also a racist.

It’s a nakedly partisan play to try to gain some headlines for a candidate that’s otherwise bottoming out.

How bad are things for Beto? This bad.

New Hampshire is of course one of the early primary states and is a crucial prize for anyone that hopes to stick around past the first month. How’s Beto doing? He’s coming in at a roaring 0.4%. Meanwhile, candidates like Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard, who receive a tiny fraction of the media coverage, continue to outpace him.

There’s some justice in that. Politicians who so brazenly try to weaponize tragedy, standing on the bodies of the dead screaming “look at me,” deserve to crash and burn. Beto is a particularly awful politician. He’s willing to say absolutely anything to pander to the left and spent much of the beginning of his campaign apologizing for his privilege. His most recent machinations just come across as pathetic. If he’s got any sense of dignity left, now would be the time to go to the window and cash out his chips.

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Enjoying the read? Please visit my archive and check out some of my latest articles.

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The post Beto O’Rourke Polls Just Behind a Colonoscopy in New Hampshire appeared first on RedState.

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Johnson’s optimism spreads to the grassroots – 58 per cent of Party members expect a Tory majority at the next election

Westlake Legal Group Screen-Shot-2019-08-01-at-14.16.48 Johnson’s optimism spreads to the grassroots – 58 per cent of Party members expect a Tory majority at the next election ToryDiary Theresa May MP Party Democracy and Membership minority government majority Labour Grassroots Election ConservativeHome Members' Panel Coalition Boris Johnson MP

The first finding from our July survey of over 1,300 Conservative members shows that Boris Johnson’s optimism appears to be infectious.

An outright majority of respondents – 58 per cent – believe the most likely outcome of the next election will be a Conservative majority. That’s up almost 30 percentage points on the finding of just 28.8 per cent saying so in our June survey.

That effect ripples down through the answers to this question. Those predicting a Tory-led coalition are down from 23.9 per cent last month to 14.1 per cent today.

Minority Tory government: marginally down from 13.9 per cent to 13.3.

Minority Labour government: down from 10.1 per cent to 4.6.

Labour-led coalition; down from 17.8 per cent to 8.6.

The proportion expecting majority Labour government: down from 5.5 per cent to 1.4.

Or look at it another way. The overall proportion expecting some form of Conservative government after the next election is now 85.4 per cent – more than two-thirds of whom expect that government to have a majority. A month ago the proportion who foresaw Conservative government of any type was 66.6 per cent – over half of whom expected a Conservative administration limited by coalition or minority status.

People’s expectations can be wrong, of course – just look at the 2017 election result. And the only certainty about the road ahead is that it is uncertain. But it’s clear that the Prime Minister’s focus on sunshine has spread to the previously demoralised Tory grassroots.

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This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs

Another week, another poll- this one by CBS News/YouGov. We’ve turned to Taylor Swift and Archer for help remembering which candidate is which in the past and, this week, we’re looking to Arrested Development for help.

How’s the field looking in general? Most voters seem downright delighted with the options they have going into 2020.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

In first place, as always, is Joe Biden (at 25%). He’s got a couple of pretty big problems, though.

First of all, he’s white and male.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

Second, he’s handsy.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

These are supposed to be the things they hate about Donald Trump, so it’s going to be hard to run a candidate with the same attributes.

Maybe they’ll find better luck in their second place candidate (who is 5 points behind)- Elizabeth Warren. She is, umm, also white. And doing surprisingly well considering the whole thing where she lied about that.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

That’s some hard core appropriation, Liz.

Kamala Harris brings in 16% of the vote in this poll and, with it, takes third place. With her record on criminal justice, it’s truly incredible she’s in the double digits.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

Bernie Sanders is just one point behind Ms. Harris with 15%. Here he is explaining his economic theories to anyone who understands math.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

The gap between 4th and 5th place is huge. Pete Buttigieg has less than half the votes of Bernie in this poll with only 6%. Maybe don’t brand yourself as “Mayor Pete” when you were mayor of a failing crime-ridden city. Doesn’t send a great message to viewers.

Westlake Legal Group giphy This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

Poor BetoIn 6th place with only 4% of the votes, he’s longing for the days when he was running against Ted Cruz and was the DNC darling. Now he’s walking around like:

Westlake Legal Group Buster-Awards This Week’s Dem Polling in Arrested Development Gifs Polling Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete kamala harris Julian Castro Joe Biden Front Page Stories Featured Story Elizabeth Warren elections Election democrats Beto O'Rourke beto Bernie Sanders Amy Klobuchar Allow Media Exception 2020

Julian Castro. 2%. What else is there even to say? I honestly keep forgetting he exists. So, just one question for those 2% of voters:

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At 1% and, for the purposes of this list, in last place, we’ve got Amy Klobuchar:

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With 1% of the vote, she’s tied with “Someone else.” Literally anyone else.

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YouGov poll: Three of the four members of the Squad have negative favorability

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Useful data for two reasons. One: Obviously everyone’s curious to know how the Trump vs. AOC battle is playing among Americans. This gives us some evidence, although not direct evidence. Two: It helps counter the misperceptions caused by that Axios story a few days ago, which was picked up and tweeted out by Trump himself. The Axios piece claimed that AOC was viewed favorably by just 22 percent and Ilhan Omar by a scant nine percent. But that was a poll of whites without a college degree, i.e. Trump’s base, not a poll of everyone. For a sense of how the country writ large views the Squad we had to wait for more numbers. That’s where YouGov comes in.

This is a poll of the general population. Verdict on the four, to quote “Chernobyl”: Not great, not terrible.

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Ilhan Omar’s at 25/34, Rashida Tlaib at 24/31, and AOC at 33/41, all negative in net favorability but all in single digits. (The number who say they “don’t know” when asked about Ocasio-Cortez is smaller than it is for most Democratic presidential candidates tested in this same poll. Most people already have an opinion about her despite the fact that she’s been in Congress for all of six months.) The only Squad member with a positive rating is Ayanna Pressley at 22/18. Not coincidentally, she’s also the least well-known of the four, with 60 percent saying they don’t know her. She simply hasn’t thrown enough rhetorical grenades yet to get righties to hate her.

To put the Squad’s numbers in perspective, eyeball the table Ariel Edwards-Levy prepared comparing their favorability to that of other prominent Democrats. Net negative in the single digits is actually … pretty common for American politicians. Trump has spent the better part of the last two years at 43/51 or so in most polls, -8 on balance. That’s exactly where he’s at in this poll too, meaning that he has the same net (un)favorability as AOC. By comparison, Nancy Pelosi is at -12 and Mitch McConnell is at -26. Most Dem presidential candidates score a bit better than the Squad, but Beto O’Rourke, for instance, is at -7, the same as Tlaib. Bill de Blasio is at -20(!!). It may be that the Squad, or at least Ocasio-Cortez, draws more *intense* support or dislike than most other Dems even if their raw favorability is similar: As it turns out, only Bernie Sanders has a higher “very unfavorable” rating than AOC among presidential candidates and only he, Biden, Warren, and Harris have a higher “very favorable” number. But however you slice it, it’s not true that the four are hugely or weirdly unpopular. They shake out more or less the same way that any well-known politicians on either side do, if not a bit better than the average.

What does this mean for Trump’s strategy to pit himself against the four going forward, at least until Dems have chosen a nominee? Likely nothing. The numbers in that Axios poll showing that working-class whites strongly dislike the Squad may be all he needs to know. If he can get those people to turn out for him again in swing states, he wins — probably. Strategists are wringing their hands because strategists dislike uncertainty, and Trump lobbing a “go back where you came from” grenade at four minority congresswomen is packed with uncertainty in terms of how voters will react…

Suburban women and college-educated whites sidelined doubts about Trump and provided support crucial to his victory over Hillary Clinton. But many, fed up with the president’s antics and rhetoric, defected to the Democratic Party in midterm elections two years later. Senior Republican strategists are warning that Trump’s divisive attacks on the four female minority congressional Democrats could permanently exile these key voting blocs, costing the president reelection…

Granted the protection of anonymity … some said the president had committed an egregious, self-inflicted error that could haunt him all the way into next year. A veteran Republican consultant said this latest episode was a bigger political problem for Trump than his controversial response to a violent gathering of white supremacists in Charlottesville, Virginia, two summers ago.

“It’s the worst thing he has done,” this GOP insider said. “It’s a blunder and the telling fact that not a single person in the White House has the ability to course correct … and keep it from being a week-long story sets up a terrible narrative.”

…but Trump knows, or thinks he knows, what his base likes and is convinced that he has the numbers to beat Democrats if he can get enough of his own fans out to the polls:

Trump’s associates predict more, not less, of the race-baiting madness…

Trump knows that in 2016, he won the white vote by 20+ points.

He hopes he can crank their turnout even higher, especially among older, white evangelicals. He knows most of those voters are unlikely to ditch him, no matter how offensive his comments.

He watches Fox News and knows AOC, in particular, is catnip to old, white voters, especially men. She is young, Hispanic, female and a democratic socialist — a 4-for-4 grievance magnet.

A new Reuters poll today finds Trump’s net approval up five points among Republicans since Sunday, when he first tweeted about the Squad. There’s no proof that the tweets caused the bounce, but (a) they’ve dominated the news this week and (b) Trump’s net approval among GOPers was already so high that it would take something extraordinary, one would think, to send it upward five whole points in the span of a few days. The spat with the Squad is pretty extraordinary. His poll bounce is probably a reaction to the tweets and the acidic condemnation he’s received from critics, and the fact that righties are rallying around him won’t be lost on him. Who knows? Maybe we’ll see a version of the MAGA hat with “Go Back to Africa” on it on sale in the Trump campaign store next year.

Here’s one of those critics laying into him yesterday on CNN. It’s, uh [checks notes] Anthony Scaramucci? Exit question: Fully 35 percent of the public thinks Pizzagate is definitely or probably true? That must mean the numbers among Republicans are way, way over 50 percent.

The post YouGov poll: Three of the four members of the Squad have negative favorability appeared first on Hot Air.

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