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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "fivethirtyeight"

NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden

Westlake Legal Group t-20 NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden The Blog never trump NBC/Survey Monkey poll impeachment fivethirtyeight donald trump

At first blush, the new NBC/Survey Monkey poll on impeachment and removal if Donald Trump tells pretty much the same story as the others since the eruption of Ukraine-Gate. In this case, Americans split evenly on the question, 49/49, which is more or less in line with all of the others. Democrats overwhelmingly support impeachment 89/10, while Republicans oppose it 9/90, and independents split slightly in favor 53/44. Ho hum.

However, thanks to the large sample size of this two-week survey (over 18,000 registered voters), NBC can drill down into some interesting demos on all of these questions. “It’s worth exploring the 10 percent of Democrats who think Trump should not be impeached,” NBC comments, “and 9 percent of Republicans who think he should be.”

So who are the Republicans who want Trump impeached? Primarily the Never Trumpers, which isn’t exactly a surprise. The ethnicity and age demos skew significantly away from the GOP norm as well:

Of Republicans who say Trump should be impeached, 88 percent disapprove of his job performance. Half of the impeachment-supporting GOP group identifies as moderate with 42 percent saying they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 27 percent said they did not vote in the last presidential election at all.

The racial composition of GOPers in favor of impeachment is very different from that of those against it. Among Republicans who think he should be impeached, 50 percent are white. Among Republicans who don’t think he should be impeached, 82 percent are white. …

Republicans who think Trump should be impeached also tend to be younger. Sixty five percent are under 45 years old, indicating that young GOP voters may be against their party on impeachment.

That could be a longer-term issue for Republicans, although it’s just as easy to say that it’s a longer-term issue for both parties. It suggests that impeachment is being taken more as a norm than an extraordinary measure, which might be an echo of the ill-fated attempt to remove Bill Clinton in 1998. There was an established crime in that case, although it involved Clinton’s private life rather than his official duties as president. In this case, no one has even formulated a crime but rather alleged unseemly conduct in pursuit of personal political objectives. If both of those get legitimized as the basis for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” we’re going to have a lot of these impeachment proceedings in the future.

What about Democrats who oppose impeachment and removal? This picture gets more complicated, as it also skews younger than the party norm. These Resistance-resisters are also somewhat more ethnically diverse than one would assume, and unsurprisingly tend to approve more of Trump’s performance than their fellow Democrats:

About 6 in 10 Democrats who don’t think Trump should be impeached still disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. Still, 4 in 10 of those Democrats approve of the job he’s doing, compared to only 2 percent approval among Democrats who think he should be impeached. …

Again, in this group, a majority are white (56 percent) but 21 percent are Hispanic and 17 percent are black.

Forty-three percent of Democrats who don’t think Trump should be impeached are under 45 years.

NBC doesn’t mention the geographic distribution of these Democrats, but it might be more important than their ethnic or age demos. If these come mainly in suburban areas, it might turn into a real headache next year for Democrats. It would have a subtle impact on their ability to win the presidential election, but such a development would have a major impact on their ability to hold the House majority. Can we assume that the 51% who either didn’t vote in 2016 or voted for Trump came primarily from the suburbs? Probably not, although that seems a little more likely than the urban cores. Perhaps NBC can follow up with more data on regional distribution.

Overall, though, this poll is telling us the same story as every other survey this month. The FiveThirtyEight impeachment poll tracker shows a very narrow band of variability, especially when narrowed to those polls that frame the question as “impeachment and removal.” As of Wednesday’s calculations, the aggregate split was 48.1/43.7 in favor, very far from a broad consensus among Americans over this extraordinary demand to undo a valid national election. Until Democrats uncover an actual crime and do so with a credible process rather than leaks from star-chamber processes, that’s not likely to change.

The post NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group t-20-300x153 NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden The Blog never trump NBC/Survey Monkey poll impeachment fivethirtyeight donald trump  Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Trump’s average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017

Westlake Legal Group t-16 Trump’s average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017 Trump The Blog subpoena rcp rating mueller job fivethirtyeight biden approval

On Friday he touched 45.1 percent in the RCP poll of polls. Today he’s up a tick to 45.3. The last time he had seen 45 percent in RCP was February 21, 2017.

Westlake Legal Group r-2 Trump’s average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017 Trump The Blog subpoena rcp rating mueller job fivethirtyeight biden approval

It’s remarkable, and maybe not coincidental, that he’s hitting new heights in approval at a moment when House Democrats are closer to impeaching him than they’ve ever been. The past month has been consumed with chatter about the Mueller report’s evidence of obstruction of justice, about Bill Barr misleading Congress by concealing Mueller’s concerns about his summary, and about a so-called “constitutional crisis” triggered by the White House moving to exercise executive privilege to block subpoenas on a range of issues. Result: Trump’s gone from 43.1 percent average approval in late April, which is standard for him, to 45.3 percent now, his highest number in two years. The reason Pelosi’s nervous about pulling the trigger on impeachment is that she fears the political dynamic will force Republicans and right-leaning independents to circle the wagons even more tightly around POTUS.

I wonder if this data doesn’t prove her right. The noisier Democrats seem to get about blowing him up, the better his numbers turn.

The truth could be more prosaic, though. The big story in electoral politics since late April, when Trump’s numbers began rising, is Joe Biden’s big splash into the presidential race and momentary domination of the field. Maybe some right-leaning indies are watching that, tasting a little early bile at the thought of a Biden presidency, and hugging Trump more tightly. Or, if you prefer your theories even more prosaic, how about the latest blockbuster jobs report on May 3? “Unemployment rate falls to the lowest since 1969” is a headline that should be good for an extra point or two in presidential job approval.

If you’re a pessimist, though, you could always point to the fact that RCP’s poll of polls doesn’t adjust the polls it tracks for “house effects,” as FiveThirtyEight’s tracker does. The difference can be significant and explains why FiveThirtyEight usually shows poorer numbers for Trump than RCP does. For instance, the very Trump-friendly Rasmussen poll currently has POTUS at 50/49 in approval. RCP includes that 50 percent number in its tracker as-is but FiveThirtyEight “adjusts” it for its pro-Trump lean and translates it to a “true” approval rating of 44/50. In FiveThirtyEight’s poll of polls, Trump *isn’t* at a two-year high. He’s at 42.4 percent, up since late April but not at a level that’s unusual for him to have reached. He was at 42.5 percent as recently as February. It may be that Trump’s surging polls at RCP are an artifact of that site’s methodology for calculating its average and little more. When both RCP *and* FiveThirtyEight show him at two-year highs then we’ll know he’s breaking out.

The post Trump’s average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017 appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group t-16-300x153 Trump’s average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017 Trump The Blog subpoena rcp rating mueller job fivethirtyeight biden approval  Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com