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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Polls and Public Opinion"

Why June Was Such a Terrible Month for Trump

WASHINGTON — Last Saturday night, over dinner at the White House, Bernard Marcus, a top Republican donor, told President Trump he was alarmed at Mr. Trump’s plummeting poll numbers and Jared Kushner’s stewardship of his father-in-law’s re-election effort.

Mr. Trump sought to assuage Mr. Marcus’s concerns, assuring the billionaire Home Depot founder that his political fortunes would soon change in part because he was bringing in “good people” to steady his campaign, according to a person briefed on their conversation.

The next morning, before setting off for a round of golf, the president tweeted a video from a Florida retirement community that featured a Trump supporter yelling, “white power,” setting Mr. Trump’s aides on a scramble to reach him on the course and have him delete the message.

As Mr. Trump heads to Mount Rushmore on Friday to spend the Independence Day holiday in the carved presence of presidential greatness, he is suffering through the most trying stretch of his administration thanks in large part to his self-inflicted wounds. June represented the political nadir of his three and a half years in the Oval Office, when a race in which he had been steadily trailing, but faring respectably, broke open and left him facing the possibility of not just defeat but humiliation this fall.

The disconnect between the surge in coronavirus cases and Mr. Trump’s dismissive stance toward the pandemic has been particularly pronounced, mystifying Democrats and Republicans alike; this week, as some states halted their reopening because of a record-setting number of new cases, the president predicted the virus would “just disappear.”

In addition to public surveys showing him losing decisively to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in a number of battleground states, private Republican polls in recent weeks show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data.

Last month’s convergence of crises, and the president’s missteps in responding to them, have been well-chronicled: his inflammatory response to racial justice protesters and his ill-considered rally in Tulsa, his refusal to acknowledge the resurgent virus or seriously address detailed reports about Russian operatives’ putting a cash bounty on American soldiers. It’s this kind of behavior, polls indicate, that has alienated swaths of swing voters.

“People are making judgments about the president’s performance there and how he’s handling it,” said John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican, making no attempt to sugarcoat what he acknowledged has become a referendum on Mr. Trump’s performance. “Sometimes you get dealt a hand and you got to play it.”

Yet as demoralizing as June was for many Republicans, what was less visible were the frenetic, and often fruitless, attempts by top Republicans to soothe the president and steer him away from self-sabotage, while also manipulating him to serve their own purposes.

One Republican official who is in frequent contact with the campaign expressed incredulity at how some aides willfully distort the electoral landscape to mollify Mr. Trump, recalling one conversation in which they assured him he was faring well in Maine, a state where private polling shows he’s losing.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_173761671_69dedae2-b0b0-4f3a-8c71-d26dfb824525-articleLarge Why June Was Such a Terrible Month for Trump United States Politics and Government Thune, John R Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Parscale, Brad (1976- ) Kushner, Jared Christie, Christopher J Biden, Joseph R Jr
Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

Interviews with almost four dozen Republican lawmakers, strategists and administration officials about Mr. Trump’s re-election bid paint a picture of a White House and a re-election effort adrift, at once paralyzed by Mr. Trump’s erratic behavior yet also dependent on him to execute his own Houdini-like political escape. Most of those interviewed requested anonymity to freely discuss internal deliberations, and to avoid retribution from the president.

Mr. Trump continues to hope for an economic recovery he can run on in the final four months of the campaign, and on Thursday he trumpeted as a sign of progress the employment report showing 4.8 million jobs gained in June. But it is not clear that Mr. Trump will get much credit for a partial — and possibly fleeting — rebound when coronavirus cases are soaring.

Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers say their internal polling is more competitive than myriad public surveys showing the president in a deep hole. The debates, which could reorient the race, still loom, and even as Mr. Biden catches up, the president still enjoys substantial fund-raising and organizational advantages.

On Thursday morning, top White House and campaign aides met to lay out a schedule for Mr. Trump through July, one that allows for politicking but, in a nod to Tulsa, at a far smaller scale than his signature rallies.

People close to the White House said that Mr. Trump remains stubbornly determined to feed the appetites of his hard-right base and deliver a message about what he describes as his great achievements in office. He’s also eager to recreate his tiny 2016 team.

Indeed, his well-financed political apparatus is more than ever a family affair, controlled by a small handful of Trump relatives and retainers who are exceedingly indulgent of the candidate — and often at war with one another.

In an interview, Mr. Kushner, whose influence in the administration is exceeded only by Mr. Trump, said his strategy amounted to letting the president dictate his own re-election.

“He’s really the campaign manager at the end of the day,” Mr. Kushner said, adding: “Our job is to present him with data, give him ideas, help him structure. And then when he makes decisions on where he wants to go, the campaign was designed to be like a custom suit for him.”

Letting Trump be Trump will delight some of his most committed supporters, but it is likely to dishearten Republicans who are already nervous about losing the Senate and yielding further ground in the House.

Credit…Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times

Some of the president’s closest outside allies are attempting to devise more of a strategic plan for his re-election.

Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, sent the president a memo last week that White House officials described as a blunt warning that he will lose if he does not stop running the 2016 campaign all over again and urging him to develop a clear vision for the next four years.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who joined Mr. Trump for his golf outing Sunday, is urging him to run as more of a populist on issues like stimulus spending, infrastructure and prescription drugs to combat the virus-driven recession.

A handful of Mr. Trump’s allies are more focused on the staff than the candidate. They are agitating for him to overhaul his operation and effectively demote the campaign manager, Brad Parscale; that’s a move Mr. Kushner has been encouraging in the wake of the Tulsa debacle, for which he has blamed Mr. Parscale, according to people familiar with his thinking.

But some of the president’s closest advisers believe that is unlikely to happen, in part because Mr. Trump is loath to take advice from new strategists anyway.

Mr. Kushner and Mr. Parscale appear increasingly at odds. Mr. Kushner has sent mixed signals about his view of the campaign manager: In a meeting with Republican officials this week, Mr. Kushner repeatedly shushed Mr. Parscale and told him to “shut up,” according to multiple people familiar with the events, but at other times he has urged friends of the president to tell Mr. Trump they think Mr. Parscale is doing a good job.

To some of Mr. Trump’s allies, including some in the conservative news media, the outsized role Mr. Kushner himself plays is part of the problem. And Mr. Trump, for his part, has been dismissive of Mr. Kushner in discussions with advisers in recent weeks, on matters including criminal justice reform, and has indicated that he wants to follow his own impulses, not his son-in-law’s, on how to campaign.

It’s those impulses that members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle spend much of their time on, seeking to quell his agitation over his sagging electoral prospects. Last week, for example, a handful of his White House advisers, but not Mr. Parscale, gathered in the Map Room to lift Mr. Trump’s spirits by showing him new campaign advertising.

Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Equally revealing — at a moment when Mr. Trump is bleeding support from independents and some moderate Republicans — is how often his advisers pacify him by highlighting his standing with voters he largely has in hand: those who participate in party primaries.

His campaign frequently trumpets the president’s record of success in influencing nominating contests, and in private, campaign officials wield his endorsement as a barely veiled threat.

In an email last month that was shared with Senate Republican chiefs of staff, Mr. Trump’s White House political director, Brian Jack, reminded the head of the Senate Republican campaign arm about the president’s then-unblemished record of endorsements.

“After last night’s election results,” Mr. Jack wrote in the message, obtained by The New York Times, “candidates endorsed by President Trump are now 64-0 in Congressional special and primary elections since the midterms.”

Such boasting, though, only drew more attention to an otherwise obscure House runoff last month for the North Carolina seat previously held by Mark Meadows, Mr. Trump’s chief of staff. Mr. Meadows’s wife nudged Mr. Trump to endorse a candidate who wound up getting trounced, leaving the president unhappy with Mr. Meadows.

There have been strides, if tardy ones, toward a more functional political structure. A key Florida-based operative who was dismissed because the governor of Florida wanted her fired was suddenly brought back this week.

And after he endorsed Kris Kobach, the firebrand Republican, in the 2018 Kansas governor’s race only to see him lose the general election in a deeply red state, Mr. Trump has played a hands-on role in attempting to deny Mr. Kobach the nomination for a Senate seat.

Last month, the president called David McIntosh, the head of the conservative Club for Growth, and persuaded him to have the group take down its ads attacking a rival to Mr. Kobach, Representative Roger Marshall, who is favored by many establishment-aligned Republicans. Still, Mr. Trump has not gone as far as endorsing Mr. Marshall, telling allies he did not want to anger his own voters by openly spurning Mr. Kobach.

Credit…Pete Marovich for The New York Times

Yet the campaign and the White House are still rife with fiefs.

Kimberly Guilfoyle, the former television personality who’s dating Mr. Trump’s eldest son, controls an expanding fund-raising division that is paying at least one donor, the socialite Somers Farkas, to help raise money.

At the same time, the campaign has quietly unwound a team dedicated to coordinating Vice President Mike Pence’s activities, shedding a group of staff members assigned to him.

Mr. Trump is sometimes unaware of moves made in his name, even though Mr. Kushner has made it part of his role to ensure that people don’t take advantage of him. At times, his newness to national politics haunts him as other Republicans seek to have him promote their agendas.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, for example, had lobbied the president to endorse Tony Gonzales for an open South Texas seat over a more hard-line candidate they feared would have little chance in the general election.

But Mr. Trump grew uneasy after a call from Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who urged him not to take sides against Raul Reyes, a build-the-wall border hawk. Mr. Cruz endorsed Mr. Reyes on Tuesday, and it is now unclear what the president will do.

What mystifies many Republicans about Mr. Trump is why he is so unwilling to take easy steps that could help remedy his political difficulties.

The most visible example is Mr. Trump’s refusal to promote mask-wearing to fight the virus, which poses perhaps the most dire threat to his re-election. Several advisers have privately urged him to do so, to little avail.

“What I find hard to understand is that in order for the president to get re-elected, he’s going to want to see a really strong economy,” Senator Mitt Romney said, adding that a recovery can’t happen without slowing the spread of the virus, which includes wearing masks. “So I would think the president would be on the air hammering his base to get the economy back and win the election.”

Credit…Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times

Mr. Romney’s lament illustrates the limits on the ability of Mr. Trump’s staff to influence him.

The president has resisted appeals from some advisers to start an onslaught of television advertising against Mr. Biden. Several people in touch with Mr. Trump and his campaign said the president strongly preferred seeing positive ads about his own accomplishments to negative ones about Mr. Biden. And he has told people he believes the race won’t be decided until October, as it was last time.

Mike Shields, a G.O.P. strategist involved in outside-spending efforts to support Mr. Trump, said Republicans had to seize the opportunity to sully Mr. Biden in a new way. He said efforts to brand Mr. Biden as nearly senile were not working.

“He should not be portrayed as doddering; he should be portrayed as what he is: someone who will drown our vulnerable economy and gladly sign Nancy Pelosi’s radical left legislation into law,” Mr. Shields said, adding of Mr. Biden, “General election voters simply don’t know this yet, so the sooner the better.”

Such a plan of attack would, however, require a disciplined president. Asked if his advisers could separate Mr. Trump from his Twitter feed as they did for a stretch in 2016, a senior administration official laughed and said Mr. Trump would do what he wanted.

Or, as Senator Rick Scott of Florida put it: “He is who he is. People know who he is. You think he’s going to change?”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Trump Is in Trouble in Pennsylvania, but ‘He’s Been Way Behind Before’

In political speeches for 40 years, Joseph R. Biden Jr. has evoked his scrappy childhood in Scranton, Pa. He kicked off his presidential run last year in Pittsburgh, and as he takes tentative steps out of home confinement in Wilmington, Del., the campaign trail has often led to the state next door.

Yet surprisingly, Mr. Biden is enjoying no special boost in his native Pennsylvania.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of six battleground states released last week showed that the former vice president’s net approval in Pennsylvania was largely the same as elsewhere: Fifty percent of registered voters viewed him positively and 48 percent saw him negatively.

President Trump, mired in the lowest point of his presidency, was viewed favorably by just 43 percent of voters in the six battlegrounds. It helped explain why he trailed Mr. Biden in all six states and by 10 percentage points in Pennsylvania, a dire picture of the president’s chances of re-election.

Still, with four months to go until Election Day, Mr. Trump could well become competitive again. Leaders of his campaign in Pennsylvania, seizing on Mr. Biden’s failure to shine as a favorite son, have sketched out a comeback path for Mr. Trump. Its steps include the Republican Party’s advantage in new voter registrations; a return to in-person organizing while Mr. Biden’s ground game remains virtual; and a range of issues — including energy policy, reopening the economy and defunding the police — that Republicans believe will peel away swing voters in a state Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2016.

“The 10 points doesn’t bother me,” said Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, referring to Mr. Trump’s deficit in the Times poll. “He’s an incumbent president, there’s a crisis and people get angry. It’s a snapshot. He’s been way behind before.”

A spokeswoman for the Biden campaign, Emma Riley, said the former vice president considered Pennsylvania crucial to his 2020 chances.

“What’s become clear is that Pennsylvanians have outright rejected the Trump administration’s failed record of leadership, reckless trade wars and corruption that’s favored corporations and their wealthy C.E.O.s ahead of everyday Americans,” Ms. Riley said.

Pennsylvania Democrats cautioned that the president’s base of rural and exurban voters, who delivered him the state in 2016 in a startling upset, were still largely supportive.

“Pennsylvania is a swing state; it’s not the Democratic state that a lot of people think it is, not anymore,” said Ryan Bizzarro, a Democratic state representative from Erie County.

Mr. Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania by a mere 44,000 votes, out of more than six million cast, was a result of sweeping defections by white residents who once voted Democratic, largely in western and northeastern Pennsylvania.

In the 2018 midterm elections and in 2019 local races, Democrats came roaring back as a blue wave swept the Philadelphia suburbs. At the same time, Republicans seized control in blue-collar union counties outside Pittsburgh.

With both parties predicting higher turnout this year than in 2016, winning statewide depends on some delicate dial-twisting: Will the Republican surge in rural counties outweigh the rejection of Mr. Trump by suburban voters, especially independents and women?

And will turnout by Black voters in Philadelphia return to near 2012 levels and offset the inroads Mr. Trump made in the city in 2016?

“The Republican base is very strong outside southeast Pennsylvania,” said Rob Gleason, a former chairman of the state G.O.P., who lives in Johnstown, a city in central Pennsylvania. “It’s immovable. Whenever there’s any type of controversy about his administration, more Trump signs go up and flags get raised.”

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_172501674_cd9e29fe-64b1-4948-aa6b-a8547a0dab8d-articleLarge Trump Is in Trouble in Pennsylvania, but ‘He’s Been Way Behind Before’ Trump, Donald J Suburbs Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion police Pittsburgh (Pa) Philadelphia (Pa) Pennsylvania George Floyd Protests (2020) Democratic Party Black Lives Matter Movement Biden, Joseph R Jr
Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

In Cambria County, which includes Johnstown, Democrats have lost 7,000 registered voters since 2016, while Republicans have gained 3,700. Statewide, Democrats retain a historical registration advantage, but the last four years have brought bad news for the party: Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats by 121,000 since November 2016, a measure of enthusiasm that favors the G.O.P.

Mr. Trump, unlike previous incumbents, has done little to reach beyond his core supporters. Since the killing of George Floyd by the police in Minneapolis, the president has played to white voters with racist and inflammatory messages about protesters, Civil War monuments and crime.

Bernadette Comfort, the chair of Mr. Trump’s campaign in Pennsylvania, disputed that he was running a base-only strategy.

“The president in fact appeals to the single mom in suburbia, the president appeals to the working-class Republican, Democrat, whatever,” Ms. Comfort said. “We will go after independents, Democrats, after those folks who did not come out in 2016.”

Nonetheless, the Times poll showed erosion in the president’s base. Mr. Trump was favored by 86 percent of Pennsylvanians who said they voted for him in 2016, down from 92 percent in a Times poll in October.

In contrast to western Pennsylvania, the growing and racially diversifying counties outside Philadelphia have moved in the opposite direction. Four years ago, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 18,000 in Chester County; today, Democrats have an edge of about 1,000.

Shivani Jain, a bank analyst in Chester County, is among the 47 percent of Pennsylvanians with a “very unfavorable” view of Mr. Trump, leaving him a very narrow path to win the state. Ms. Jain, 25, has participated in recent protests.

“As a person of color myself, I find the last few years has been heartbreaking,” she said. “I’m hoping with what I’m seeing with the Black Lives Matter movement and how many of my generation have come out, people take that energy to the voting booth.”

An issue Republican officials believe will help the president is the cautious reopening of the state by Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, which has met furious opposition in some regions with fewer coronavirus cases.

Cynthia Sabat, 52, a Trump supporter who lives east of Pittsburgh, called the governor’s support for the city’s ban on consuming alcohol in bars, after a spike in cases over the weekend, “moronic.”

“Wolf is horrible,” she said. “I don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories — I believe the virus is real — but you can’t just keep people from their livelihoods. They have a right to make a living.”

It is unclear, however, whether this will be a winning issue for the president. In the Times poll, only 27 percent of Pennsylvanians said stay-home orders had gone too far.

Since mid-June, the Trump campaign has returned to in-person door knocking and has held training sessions for volunteers without masks or social distancing. The campaign, which says it has 106 organizers in the state to identify and motivate supporters, appears to be ahead of Mr. Biden’s ground game.

“They haven’t hired a state director,” Michael Joyce, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said of the Biden team. “They simply don’t have the ground game, the data operation, the infrastructure every campaign needs to get their candidate across the finish line. It’s too late to catch up.”

Mr. Bizzarro, who witnessed Mr. Trump flip the longtime Democratic bastion of Erie County in 2016, said Mr. Biden needed a stronger ground game and in-person organizing.

“I’ve been on the phone with Biden’s national political director several times already this week,” he said. “The urgency is real. Banking on virtually touching enough voters to win isn’t something I’m comfortable with for Biden, myself as a candidate or any other candidate up and down the ballot.”

The Biden campaign did not dispute its lack of a state director, but said it was working with the Democratic National Committee and state parties to place hundreds of organizers in battleground states including Pennsylvania. Rebounding from 2016, when Hillary Clinton could not find enough local field staff members, Democrats have trained more than 100 organizers in communities of color in the state.

A potentially potent issue for Republicans is Mr. Biden’s energy policy, as progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York push him to endorse the Green New Deal.

“Joe likes to claim he’s for Pennsylvania and understands Pennsylvania — on that point alone, he will lose western Pennsylvania with this energy policy,” Ms. Comfort said.

A pro-Trump super PAC, America First Action, spent nearly $800,000 on attack ads in the state in June, claiming that Mr. Biden would ban fracking for natural gas, an industry that has brought thousands of jobs to southwestern Pennsylvania.

The ads misleadingly edit a statement of Mr. Biden’s from a debate to suggest he would “eliminate” coal and fracking. In the full quotation, he said he would eliminate “subsidies” for fossil fuels.

The Biden campaign said in a statement that Mr. Biden did not endorse the Green New Deal. His climate plan calls for a ban on new oil and gas drilling on public lands, though not on private property.

“There’s clearly an effort by the Trump campaign to mischaracterize his position,” said Representative Conor Lamb, a pro-fracking Democrat who won his seat in 2018 by carrying some of Pittsburgh’s red-hued suburbs.

Mr. Lamb said that four years after Mr. Trump campaigned by promising to restore blue-collar jobs, there was little to show for it. “We’ve seen steel-related jobs and coal-related jobs go away,” Mr. Lamb said. “The president has four years of a record and he hasn’t delivered.”

A third issue that Republicans said they would lean into in the state is the movement to defund police departments. That has become a focal point of some protesters, including those in South Philadelphia who have faced off against armed counterprotesters at a statue of Christopher Columbus.

“How many white women suburban voters will support that?” asked Mr. Joyce of the R.N.C., referring to calls to defund the police. The issue will “hand the suburbs right to us,” he added.

Tami Drumheller, a Republican in Berks County, in the exurbs of Philadelphia, might seem to be one such voter. She voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 but remains undecided this year. “He’s all for defunding the police and taking away our rights to defend ourselves,” she said of Mr. Biden. (While many Democratic officials support reallocating money from police departments to social services, Mr. Biden does not.)

Ms. Drumheller, an office administrator, might come home to the Republican Party in November. But to listen to her now, it is far from certain.

“He needs to be more understanding about where these people are coming from,” she said of the president and the protesters. “I am a middle-class white female. I do have African-American nephews.” It is not her own voice that society needs to hear, she said. “It’s my nephews’ voices.”

“How the president comes off,” she said, “he comes off very ignorant about everything.”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think.

Westlake Legal Group biden-is-getting-a-lot-of-advice-on-his-v-p-heres-what-voters-think Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think. Women and Girls Whitmer, Gretchen Warren, Elizabeth Vice Presidents and Vice Presidency (US) Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Hispanic-Americans Harris, Kamala D Duckworth, L Tammy Black People Biden, Joseph R Jr Baldwin, Tammy Suzanne Green Asian-Americans Abrams, Stacey Y

Joseph R. Biden Jr. appears to face limited political pressure from voters about whom to choose as his running mate, with no contender emerging as a clear favorite and the great majority of people saying that race should not be a factor in his decision, according to polling conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Biden has pledged to select a woman as his nominee for vice president, and his advisers are vetting more than half a dozen people for the job. In recent weeks, amid ongoing demonstrations against racism and police violence, a number of prominent Democrats have pressed Mr. Biden to select an African-American woman. And his search committee has been reviewing at least five black women, one Latina and one Asian-American candidate.

Earlier this month, Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a white moderate, removed herself from consideration for vice president after sustained criticism of her record as a prosecutor, and she publicly urged Mr. Biden to put a woman of color on his ticket.

In the Times poll, four in five registered voters said that race shouldn’t be a factor in Mr. Biden’s selection of a running mate. That group included three-quarters of the black voters polled, and more than 8 in 10 white and Hispanic voters.

About a fifth of black voters said they would like to see Mr. Biden choose a black running mate. The largest group with that preference was very liberal voters, at 37 percent; 27 percent of voters with postgraduate degrees said the same.

The poll asked respondents if they thought Mr. Biden should chose a black running mate or a white running mate or if race shouldn’t be a factor. The poll did not ask about the possibility that Mr. Biden could choose a Latina or an Asian-American candidate, but he is seriously considering women of both backgrounds.


Do you think Joe Biden should select a vice president who is white, who is black, or do you think race shouldn’t be a factor in his selection?





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Westlake Legal Group all-blackvp-600 Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think. Women and Girls Whitmer, Gretchen Warren, Elizabeth Vice Presidents and Vice Presidency (US) Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Hispanic-Americans Harris, Kamala D Duckworth, L Tammy Black People Biden, Joseph R Jr Baldwin, Tammy Suzanne Green Asian-Americans Abrams, Stacey Y

DON’T KNOW

NOT A FACTOR

Very liberal

Postgraduate

Somewhat liberal

College graduate

All registered voters

High school graduate

All voters in swing states

Black voters in swing states

Some college completed

Somewhat conservative

Very conservative

Westlake Legal Group all-blackvp-300 Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think. Women and Girls Whitmer, Gretchen Warren, Elizabeth Vice Presidents and Vice Presidency (US) Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Hispanic-Americans Harris, Kamala D Duckworth, L Tammy Black People Biden, Joseph R Jr Baldwin, Tammy Suzanne Green Asian-Americans Abrams, Stacey Y

DON’T

KNOW

NOT A

FACTOR

Very liberal

Postgraduate

Somewhat liberal

College graduate

All registered voters

High school graduate

All voters in

swing states

Black voters in

swing states

Some college

completed

Somewhat

conservative

Very conservative


Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,337 registered voters across the country from June 17 to June 22, and a poll of 3,870 registered voters in six swing states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) from June 8 to June 18. Question was asked of half of the poll respondents. The margin of sampling error for smaller groups is larger.

In the six most important battleground states, voters’ professed indifference to race was even stronger. Nine in 10 registered voters in those states said race should not be a factor in Mr. Biden’s choice of running mate, including 91 percent of black voters and 85 percent of Hispanics.

The polls had margins of sampling error of 1.8 percentage points in the battleground states and 3 percentage points nationally.

Mr. Biden’s eventual choice is certain to face intensive scrutiny, in part because of Mr. Biden’s age. If he is elected, Mr. Biden, currently 77, would be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration, and he would turn 80 about halfway through his term, a reality that worries some voters.

Mr. Biden has said he is looking for someone who shares his overall approach to governing and who would be prepared for the presidency “on Day 1.” He has also said he would prefer a running mate with strengths that complement his own, as well as someone who would be willing to challenge him rather than being cowed by the office of the presidency.

Follow-up interviews with poll respondents suggested that many voters are in tune with Mr. Biden’s stated approach.

“I don’t believe that the problems in America can be solved just by having, for example, a black president or a black vice president,” said Garfield Campbell, 54, of Scottsdale, Ariz., a poll respondent. Mr. Campbell, who is black, continued, “The right person has to be someone that can sort of counterbalance, or add value and strength, to Joe Biden, in areas where he may not be as strong.”

Mr. Biden’s wide lead over President Trump in national polls — he was ahead by 14 percentage points in a Times/Siena survey this week — could give him an unusually free hand in choosing a running mate: He is not desperately seeking a sidekick who could help him shake up the race, as John McCain did in 2008 when he put the charismatic but obscure Alaska governor, Sarah Palin, on his ticket. Nor is Mr. Biden confronting questions about his own readiness for the presidency, as Barack Obama did when he selected Mr. Biden.

Christine Matthews, a Republican pollster who has been critical of Mr. Trump, said that the political impact of Mr. Biden’s selection might be limited because he is so far ahead in the race.

“It matters less this year, because of his large lead and his appeal to fairly broad constituencies,” said Ms. Matthews, adding that her own view was that Mr. Biden ought to choose a black woman.

Yet the size and diversity of Mr. Biden’s emerging coalition presents delicate dynamics of its own, as his choice of running mate may well excite one element of his political base at the cost of upsetting another.

Of the women known to be under consideration, only a few have prominent national profiles. None of the better-known women appeared in the poll to be a runaway favorite with voters.


Many of the vice-presidential contenders are not well known nationally





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Westlake Legal Group all-vpfav-600 Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think. Women and Girls Whitmer, Gretchen Warren, Elizabeth Vice Presidents and Vice Presidency (US) Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Hispanic-Americans Harris, Kamala D Duckworth, L Tammy Black People Biden, Joseph R Jr Baldwin, Tammy Suzanne Green Asian-Americans Abrams, Stacey Y

National poll

IMPRESSION IS …

DON’T KNOW

UNFAVORABLE

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Mass.

Kamala Harris

Senator from Calif.

Stacey Abrams

Fmr. Ga. state rep.

Gretchen Whitmer

Governor of Mich.

Tammy Duckworth

Senator from Ill.

Val Demings

Rep. from Florida

Polls in each contender’s home state

DON’T KNOW

UNFAVORABLE

Gretchen Whitmer

Governor of Mich.

Tammy Baldwin

Senator from Wis.

Val Demings

Rep. from Florida

Westlake Legal Group all-vpfav-300 Biden Is Getting a Lot of Advice on His V.P. Here’s What Voters Think. Women and Girls Whitmer, Gretchen Warren, Elizabeth Vice Presidents and Vice Presidency (US) Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Hispanic-Americans Harris, Kamala D Duckworth, L Tammy Black People Biden, Joseph R Jr Baldwin, Tammy Suzanne Green Asian-Americans Abrams, Stacey Y

National poll

IMPRESSION IS …

DON’T

KNOW

UNFAVORABLE

Elizabeth Warren

Senator from Mass.

Kamala Harris

Senator from Calif.

Stacey Abrams

Fmr. Ga. state rep.

Gretchen Whitmer

Governor of Mich.

Tammy Duckworth

Senator from Ill.

Val Demings

Rep. from Florida

Polls in each contender’s home state

DON’T

KNOW

UNFAVORABLE

Gretchen Whitmer

Governor of Mich.

Tammy Baldwin

Senator from Wis.

Val Demings

Rep. from Florida


National figures are based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,337 registered voters across the country from June 17 to June 22. State figures are based on polls of registered voters conducted in battleground states June 8 to June 18. Some questions were asked of half of the poll respondents.

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was the best-known contender, and she was seen favorably by 45 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 42 percent. Ms. Warren inspired the strongest reactions of any candidate tested in the poll, with three-fifths of very liberal voters saying they had a very favorable view of her and an equal share of very conservative voters expressing a strongly negative view. A majority of moderate voters had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of her.

In the swing states, Ms. Warren’s favorability rating was evenly split, with 41 percent of people saying they had a favorable view and the same share saying the opposite.

Ellen Schiffman Adelstein, 78, of Tucson, said she admired Ms. Warren’s work on consumer protection matters but worried that her positions on issues like health care were too far to the left, posing a risk to the ticket if Mr. Biden selected her.

“I want a new president,” Ms. Schiffman Adelstein said. “I don’t want anything to mess up getting a new president in there.”

But Khalil Skerritt, 30, of Tallahassee, said that Ms. Warren would push Mr. Biden to move urgently on promises of structural reform.

“She’ll be the one to be like, ‘No, we have four years to get stuff done,’” said Mr. Skerritt, who supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.

Senator Kamala Harris of California, another well-known candidate in the vetting process, had similarly mixed numbers, with 40 percent of voters expressing a favorable view and 35 percent seeing her unfavorably. Two-thirds of black voters had a positive impression of Ms. Harris, a few percentage points better than Ms. Warren.

Ms. Harris was somewhat less well known in the battleground states and showed few pronounced points of strength or weakness there. Thirty-five percent of swing-state voters said they had a favorable view of her, and 30 percent said the opposite.

The public was far less familiar with two other black women under consideration: Representative Val Demings of Florida, a former police chief who is among the most serious vice-presidential prospects, was unknown to 4 in 5 voters both nationally and in her expansive home state. Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia governor candidate, was seen favorably by about a third of registered voters nationwide but was unknown to nearly half.

Allison Bryan-Harris, 41, of Eagle Lake, Fla., said she planned to cast an unenthusiastic vote for Mr. Biden — “I could vote for a box at this point,” she said — but expressed excitement about Ms. Abrams, calling her “forward-thinking” and “progressive.”

Wilfredo Torres, 71, aHispanic military retiree from Charlotte, N.C., favored Ms. Demings for vice president, saying he believed “it’s a good time to have somebody African-American on the ticket.” He also said her law enforcement experience was an asset.

Two white women from the Midwest who have spoken with Mr. Biden’s vetting team, Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, drew positive marks in their home states, suggesting that either could be well positioned to help Mr. Biden cement his lead in a key battleground.

But Mr. Biden is already leading both of those states by substantial margins, and it is not clear that he needs help from a running mate to lock up a local victory.

A third Midwesterner, Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, who is Asian-American, was also unknown to most voters.

Elaine Meyer, of Detroit, spoke highly of Ms. Whitmer. But she added, “I don’t want to lose her as governor.” A 41-year-old white librarian, she said she hoped Mr. Biden would choose a black woman as his running mate.

Ms. Meyer said she had seen Mr. Biden speak in person and found him to be “engaging” and “very competent.” But she said she still found his age “a little worrisome.”

Voters showed no interest in the idea that he could pledge to serve just one term as president, a possibility briefly debated by some of Mr. Biden’s advisers early in the presidential race.

Eighty-five percent of registered voters nationwide said a one-term pledge would make no difference in their decision to vote for or against Mr. Biden.

Rebecca Wabish, a Biden supporter in New Hanover, Pa., said it was plain enough to her that Mr. Biden would be a one-term president. For that reason, Ms. Wabish, 67, said she hoped he would ensure there was “strong leadership coming up behind him.”

“You don’t have to look so far in the future: He’ll never make it through a second term because of his age,” Ms. Wabish said. “I think what he has to do is get a very, very strong V.P.”

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Biden Builds Polling Lead in Battleground States, With Strength Among White Voters



NYT Upshot/
Siena College poll
Westlake Legal Group biden-new Biden Builds Polling Lead in Battleground States, With Strength Among White Voters Trump, Donald J Siena College Presidential Election of 2020 Presidential Election of 2016 Polls and Public Opinion New York Times Biden, Joseph R Jr
Westlake Legal Group trump-new Biden Builds Polling Lead in Battleground States, With Strength Among White Voters Trump, Donald J Siena College Presidential Election of 2020 Presidential Election of 2016 Polls and Public Opinion New York Times Biden, Joseph R Jr

Joe Biden holds a strong lead among registered voters in six battleground states carried by Donald Trump in 2016.

2016 Result NYT/Siena
June 2020
Michigan (n=610) Trump +11 Biden
Wisconsin (655) Trump +11 Biden
Pennsylvania (651) Trump +10 Biden
Florida (651) +1 Trump +6 Biden
Arizona (650) +4 Trump +7 Biden
North Carolina (653) +4 Trump +9 Biden
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,870 registered voters from June 8 to June 18.


President Trump has lost significant ground in the six battleground states that clinched his Electoral College victory in 2016, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, with Joseph R. Biden Jr. opening double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Mr. Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election if it persists. Mr. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.

Four years ago, Mr. Trump’s strength in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states allowed him to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. The surveys indicate that the president continues to fare better in these relatively white battleground states than he does nationwide.

A separate Times/Siena survey released on Wednesday found Mr. Biden leading by 14 points nationwide, 50 percent to 36 percent.

Mr. Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.

With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for the president’s political standing to recover, just as it did on so many occasions four years ago. He maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle. And many of the undecided voters in these states lean Republican, and may end up returning to their party’s nominee.

But for now, the findings confirm that the president’s political standing has deteriorated sharply since October, when Times/Siena polls found Mr. Biden ahead by just two percentage points across the same six states (the gap is now nine points). Since then, the nation has faced a series of crises that would pose a grave political challenge to any president seeking re-election. The polls suggest that battleground-state voters believe the president has struggled to meet the moment.

Over all, 42 percent of voters in the battleground states approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.

These six​ states — with their mix of major cities, old industrial hubs, growing suburbs, and even farmland — together deliver a grim judgment of Mr. Trump on recent issues that have shaken American life. His handling of the pandemic and the protests after the death of George Floyd help explain his erosion across both old and new battlegrounds.



President Trump has the most support among voters in dealing with the economy, the least on issues connected to race.

Battleground voters who approve of Trump’s handling of …
The economy
Coronavirus
Criminal justice
Race relations
Floyd protests
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,870 registered voters from June 8 to June 18.


On these issues, voter disapproval reflects more than just general dissatisfaction with the state of the country. It seems to reflect deeper disagreement with the president’s prioritization of the economy and law and order over the coronavirus pandemic and criminal justice.

A majority of voters, 63 percent, say they would rather back a presidential candidate who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far, while just 31 percent say they would prefer to support a candidate who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far.

Despite double-digit unemployment, 55 percent of voters in these six states say the federal government’s priority should be to limit the spread of the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, while just 35 percent say the federal government’s priority should be to restart the economy. Even the newly unemployed, who would seem to have the most to gain from a reopened economy, say stopping the coronavirus should be the government’s priority.

A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.

As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.



Voters in Michigan were much more likely to say that they thought President Trump treated their state unfairly in responding to the coronavirus.

Voters who say Trump treated their state worse than most:
Arizona <!– Ariz. –>
Florida <!– Fla. –>
Michigan <!– Mich. –>
North Carolina <!– N.C. –>
Pennsylvania <!– Pa. –>
Wisconsin <!– Wisc. –>
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,870 registered voters from June 8 to June 18.


Mr. Trump’s ratings are healthier on the kinds of issues that might have dominated the election season under more ordinary circumstances. His 56 percent approval rating on the economy, versus 40 percent who disapprove, is nearly the opposite of his overall job approval rating. Voters say by a double-digit margin that he would do a better job on the issue than Mr. Biden, and they also prefer Mr. Trump to handle relations with China.

With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for memories to fade or for the national debate to return to more favorable turf for the president. But these are not ordinary circumstances, and for now the president’s coalition has suffered serious defections, eroding the familiar demographic divides of recent elections.

Mr. Trump retains the support of 86 percent of respondents who said they voted for him in 2016, down from 92 percent in October.

Mr. Biden, by contrast, has emerged from a contested primary with a unified Democratic coalition. He wins 93 percent of the voters who backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, as well as 92 percent of self-identified Democrats. Mr. Biden also enjoys a significant advantage among those who voted for neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He has a 35-point lead among battleground voters who said they backed a minor-party candidate or wrote in another.

Together, these shifts give Mr. Biden a six-point lead among voters who participated in the 2016 election, according to voter-file records. The same voters said they backed Mr. Trump over Mrs. Clinton in 2016 by 2.5 percentage points, slightly better for Mr. Trump than the actual result of the six states, offering a level of validity to the survey’s findings. Mr. Biden also has a 17-point lead among registered voters who did not vote in the 2016 race.

Mr. Trump’s once-decisive advantage among white voters has all but vanished, despite national attention to the kind of racial issues that many analysts believed propelled his strength among white voters in the first place. If attitudes about race were vital to Mr. Trump’s appeal with white voters, then a foundation of his strength has been badly shaken.

National polls suggest that the Black Lives Matter movement has become significantly more popular since the 2016 election. The Times/Siena polls find that white voters in the battleground states support the recent protests and agree with the movement’s major complaints about the criminal justice system, including that the death of Mr. Floyd is part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence, and that the criminal justice system is biased against African-Americans. They disapprove of how the president is handling both the recent protests and race relations more generally.

Mr. Biden’s gains among white voters have been largest among the young and college-educated white voters likeliest to back the protesters’ views on racial issues.

Over all in the six states, Mr. Biden holds a 55-34 lead among white voters with at least a four-year college degree, an 11-point gain from October. White voters under age 35 now back Mr. Biden by a margin of 50 percent to 31 percent, up from an all-but-tied race in October.

White voters with more conservative attitudes on racial issues appear to have soured on Mr. Trump in recent months, and yet they have not embraced Mr. Biden.



Biden’s standing in battleground states represents a major shift in support from 2016 with nearly every group of voters.

Polls
in 2016
NYT/Siena
Oct. 2019
NYT/Siena
June 2020
Change from 2019 NYT poll
All reg. voters (n=3,870) Clinton +2 Biden +9 Biden
gender
Male (n=1,772) +8 Trump +12 Trump +2 Trump
Female (2,098) +8 Clinton +13 Biden +19 Biden
Race and education
White (n=2,718) +15 Trump +12 Trump +4 Trump
White, college (1,228) +6 Clinton +10 Biden +21 Biden
White, no coll. (1,472) +26 Trump +24 Trump +16 Trump
Black (382) +79 Clinton +74 Biden +76 Biden
Hispanic (376) +36 Clinton +35 Biden +36 Biden
age
18 to 29 (n=616) +21 Clinton +17 Biden +38 Biden
30 to 44 (756) +1 Clinton +8 Biden +15 Biden
45 to 64 (1,288) Trump +7 Trump +4 Trump
65+ (1,036) +13 Trump +1 Trump +6 Biden
Figures in 2020 are from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,870 registered voters from June 8 to June 18. Figures from 2019 are from a NYT Upshot/Siena College poll of 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. Figures from 2016 represent a combination of 7,802 battleground respondents in polls by The New York Times/Siena College, The New York Times/CBS News, Pew Research, The Washington Post/ABC News and CNN/ORC in fall 2016.


White voters without a degree, the linchpin of the president’s winning coalition, back Mr. Trump by a 16-point margin in the battlegrounds, down from a 24-point margin in October and a 26-point one in the final polls of the last election. Despite that slide, Mr. Biden’s support among white voters without a degree has increased by only one percentage point since October.

Mr. Biden leads among voters 65 and over, reversing a decade-long Republican advantage. But he has made relatively limited gains among voters over age 50 since October, including no gains at all among white voters over age 50 without a college degree.

Their relatively conservative attitudes on race and the protests could be part of the reason for the president’s resilience: White voters in the battleground states who are 50 and over oppose the recent demonstrations, and say too many have turned to violent rioting. They are split on whether discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minorities, and say that riots are a bigger problem than police treatment of African-Americans by a 10-percentage-point margin.

Perhaps more surprisingly, Mr. Biden has also made few to no gains among nonwhite voters, despite the national attention on criminal justice and racism over the last month.

Over all in the battlegrounds, Mr. Biden leads among black voters by 83 percent to 7 percent, up only slightly from October. Hispanic voters back Mr. Biden by 62-26, also essentially unchanged. Neither lead exceeds Mrs. Clinton’s margin in the final polls from 2016.

Mr. Biden’s wide lead is a reflection of the president’s weakness rather than of his own strength. Over all, 55 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters say their vote is more a vote against Mr. Trump than a vote for Mr. Biden, while 80 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters say they’re mainly voting for the president. And Mr. Biden’s gains have come without any improvement in his favorability ratings, even as Mr. Trump’s have plummeted.

But Mr. Biden’s standing is nonetheless healthy by most measures. Over all, 50 percent of battleground voters say they have a favorable view of him, compared with 47 percent who have an unfavorable view.

It’s possible that Mr. Biden will struggle to match his wide lead in the polls at the ballot box. The battleground voters who don’t back either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump tend to tilt Republican, whether by party registration or by affiliation, and 34 percent say they voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, compared with 20 percent who backed Mrs. Clinton.

Some of these voters may return to the president by the end of the race, yet at the moment, 56 percent of these voters disapprove of his performance, while just 29 percent approve.

The results suggest that Mr. Biden still has an open path to a sweeping victory. Over all, 55 percent of registered voters in the battleground states said there was at least “some chance” they would support Mr. Biden in the election, including 12 percent of Republicans, 11 percent of voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2016, and 44 percent of the Republican-tilting undecided voters.

As for Mr. Trump, 55 percent of registered voters in the battlegrounds said there was “not really any chance” they would vote for him this November.

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The Times/Siena poll of 3,870 registered voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina was conducted from June 8 to 18. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll ranges from plus-or-minus 4.1 to 4.6 percentage points. The margin of sampling error on the full battleground sample is plus-or-minus 1.8 percentage points.

Here are cross-tabs and methodology for the poll.

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates






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Westlake Legal Group arizona-top-600 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/Siena College poll

of registered voters in Arizona

Arizona Senate

Westlake Legal Group arizona-top-300 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/

Siena College poll

of registered voters in Ariz.

Arizona Senate


“Other” includes those who would vote for another candidate, would not vote or did not know. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 650 registered voters in Arizona from June 17 to June 22.

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s erratic performance in office and his deteriorating standing in the polls is posing a grave threat to his party’s Senate majority, imperiling incumbents in crucial swing states and undermining Republican prospects in one of the few states they had hoped to gain a seat, according to a new poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.

Senator Martha McSally of Arizona, a Republican, trails her Democratic opponent, Mark Kelly, by nine percentage points while Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina is behind his Democratic rival, Cal Cunningham, by three. Both incumbents are polling below 40 percent despite having recently aired a barrage of television advertisements.

In Michigan, which Senate Republicans viewed as one of their few opportunities to go on the offensive this year, Senator Gary Peters, a first-term Democrat, is up by 10 percentage points over John James, who is one of the G.O.P.’s most prized recruits.






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Westlake Legal Group michigan-top-600 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/Siena College poll

of registered voters in Michigan

Michigan Senate

Westlake Legal Group michigan-top-300 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/

Siena College poll

of registered voters in Mich.

Michigan Senate


“Other” includes those who would vote for another candidate, would not vote or did not know. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 610 registered voters in Michigan from June 17 to June 22.

The poll showed that the same voters who are fleeing the president — highly educated white Americans, many of them once-reliable Republicans — are providing an advantage to Democratic Senate candidates. Mr. Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus and his bombastic response to protests over racial justice have made him an underdog against Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, who led the president by 14 percentage points nationally in the Times poll.

And in an era when Senate races increasingly mirror the presidential preference of a given state, there is little Ms. McSally and Mr. Tillis may be able to do to overcome Mr. Trump’s current drag on their party. The president trails Mr. Biden by seven percentage points in Arizona and nine in North Carolina. Mr. Trump is capturing the support of only 41 percent of Arizona voters and 40 percent of North Carolinians.






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Westlake Legal Group north_carolina-top-600 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/Siena College poll

of registered voters in North Carolina

North Carolina Senate

Cunningham

Westlake Legal Group north_carolina-top-300 Poll Shows Trump Dragging Down G.O.P. Senate Candidates United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tillis, Thomas R Senate Republican Party Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Politics and Government North Carolina Michigan McSally, Martha James, John (1981- ) Iowa Ernst, Joni Elections, Senate Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr Arizona

NYT Upshot/

Siena College poll

of registered voters in N.C.

North Carolina Senate

Cunningham


“Other” includes those who would vote for another candidate, would not vote or did not know. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 653 registered voters in North Carolina from June 17 to June 22.

The president’s prospects are even more dire in Michigan, where the poll shows he is losing to Mr. Biden by 11 points, capturing just 36 percent of the vote in a state he narrowly carried four years ago.

Taken together, the three battleground states paint a grim picture for Republicans right now — and suggest that if Mr. Trump does not arrest his fall he could hand Democrats control of both the presidency and the Senate next year.

“The election is a referendum on Trump,” said Kirk Adams, a Republican and former Arizona state House speaker. “That could change, but until then, down-ballot Republicans will have to decide if they will ride the Trump train to its final destination or if they need to establish some brand independence.”

Jill Cohen, a 52-year-old resident of Tempe, Ariz, who was a Republican until 2016, said she would have a difficult time supporting a Senate candidate who “aligns herself” with Mr. Trump and his views. “I look to a leader of our country to be someone who is unifying, who is welcoming, who is inclusive and who I can tell my children to look up to,” she said. Mr. Trump, she added, “is not any of those things.”

She said she longed for more consensus-oriented lawmakers and would vote for Mr. Kelly. “I really like Kyrsten Sinema for that reason because she is willing to go across the aisle and work bipartisan,” she said, referring to Arizona’s other senator. “And I think Kelly would, too.”

The margin of sampling error in the Times/Siena survey for the individual state polls in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina is about four percentage points.

The Times survey of battleground states is not the only recent polling that illustrates how the president’s unpopularity is endangering his party’s candidates. A recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa — which found Mr. Trump up by just one percentage point in a state he carried by about 10 in 2016 — showed Senator Joni Ernst trailing by three points against Theresa Greenfield, a first-time candidate.

Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority. A pickup of three seats would give Democrats control, if Mr. Biden wins and his vice president is able to break a 50-50 tie. But if Doug Jones of Alabama, a rare Democratic senator in the Deep South, loses his re-election in a state that Mr. Trump is expected to comfortably carry, Democrats would need to net four seats to take control.

Yet with Republicans defending a number of competitive seats this year, the majority is now clearly within reach for Democrats. In addition to Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa, Republicans have vulnerable incumbents in Colorado and Maine, two states that Mr. Biden is favored to win.

Further, two Senate Republicans are facing competitive re-elections this year in Georgia, a fast-changing state where surveys have shown Mr. Trump effectively tied with Mr. Biden. And in Montana, the state’s popular Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, is challenging Senator Steve Daines.

Republicans could still limit the Democrats’ opportunities to pick up seats, especially if Mr. Trump stabilizes his standing. There are a considerable number of undecided voters in these Senate races, particularly in Michigan and North Carolina where Mr. Peters and Mr. Tillis, who’s also in his first term, are not well known.

However, by aligning themselves so closely with Mr. Trump, Senate Republicans now risk the same fate that could await the president without a drastic change in fortune.

“I really resent when I see in the newspaper that Trump is supported by all these Republicans,” said Fern Fousse, an 84-year-old Tucson, Ariz., resident who said she would vote for a Democrat for president for the first time this year. “Well, I’m a Republican! I have a voice! And I am not a Trump Republican.”

Ms. McSally, who was appointed last year to the seat previously held by the late Senator John McCain, “became a Trump lackey,” Ms. Fousse continued. “I would have never thought that of her.”

Ms. Fousse said she had also become disillusioned with Ms. McSally after watching her unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2018.

“Martha McSally’s campaign has been so negative,” Ms. Fousse said. “Mark Kelly sounds like a nice person, a winner and someone who can work with both parties.”

Mr. Trump’s precipitous drop in these battleground states owes largely to his decline among voters who, like Ms. Fousse, who were once staunch Republicans.

The president has sagged among white voters, especially those who are younger and those who have college degrees. He has received especially poor marks from this slice of the electorate for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his response to the protests against racial injustice.

His divisive conduct has, in turn, soured voters on his party’s other candidates. Michael Maddox, a 60-year-old teacher from Fayetteville, N.C., said he had been disturbed by Mr. Trump’s stated desire to slow coronavirus testing and by his use of racist language, describing the pandemic as “Kung Flu.”

“We’ve gotta get him out of there,” Mr. Maddox said, “and I think one of the ways to help do that is to try to remove some of the folks who support his agenda.”

Mr. Maddox said he has been unnerved by what he said was Mr. Tillis’s “silence” in the face of these and other remarks by Mr. Trump.

It’s voters like Mr. Maddox and Ms. Cohen, the Tempe resident, both of whom have college degrees, who are imperiling Senate Republicans.

In Arizona, Mr. Kelly leads Ms. McSally 49 to 39 among voters with a college degree. In North Carolina, Mr. Cunningham is up 52 to 29 with the same voters. And Mr. Peters also enjoys a comfortable margin among college-educated voters, leading Mr. James 47 to 29.

Like Mr. Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are also struggling to appeal to voters under 45.

Their challenge, therefore, is how to win over some Biden voters without angering the president’s most ardent supporters.

The composition of the undecided voters in the Times-Siena survey illustrates how tricky that can be because they largely lean to the right but are uneasy with Mr. Trump.

If Senate Republicans try to woo these voters by distancing themselves from the president, they risk incurring his volcanic wrath and driving away his most loyal voters, in the fashion of a handful of congressional candidates who lost in 2016. “It’s a difficult needle to thread and requires astute political maneuvering to hold the Trump voter and attract the swing voter,” Mr. Adams, the former Arizona speaker, noted.

Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist, said her party’s Senate candidates have little choice but to try to localize the races and to make them about themselves and their opponents rather than Mr. Trump.

“These senators have strong brands and have worked hard for their states so they should run on delivering for their constituents,” said Ms. Hickey, adding, “What else can they do?”

Some of the Republicans are doing just this by taking the unusual step of calling for a series of debates, a tactic incumbents turn to only in times of peril because they don’t want to hand attention to lesser-known opponents.

Yet for voters who are eager to register their opposition against Mr. Trump in every conceivable way, such ploys may have little impact.

In Michigan, Republicans had hoped that Mr. James, a 39-year-old African-American former Army helicopter pilot, could appeal to white and black voters alike. But despite having run for the Senate two years ago, he’s drawing scant support among African-Americans in the poll.

Brooks Welch, 21, a college student from outside Grand Rapids, Mich., said the president had empowered racists and people who want to do harm to black people. So when it comes to her vote in the Senate race, she said her criteria was simple and straightforward: “I want to just support someone who is actively against the policies that Trump has.”

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Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race






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Westlake Legal Group all-top-600 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

NYT Upshot/Siena College poll

of registered voters

Westlake Legal Group all-top-300 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

NYT Upshot/

Siena College poll

of registered voters


“Other” includes those who would vote for another candidate, would not vote or did not know.·Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,337 registered voters from June 17 to June 22.

Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taken a commanding lead over President Trump in the 2020 race, building a wide advantage among women and nonwhite voters and making deep inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning groups that have shifted away from Mr. Trump following his ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.

Mr. Trump has been an unpopular president for virtually his entire time in office. He has made few efforts since his election in 2016 to broaden his support beyond the right-wing base that vaulted him into office with only 46 percent of the popular vote and a modest victory in the Electoral College.

But among a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.

Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016.


If the 2020 presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for?





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Westlake Legal Group all-table-600 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

Trump ahead

Biden ahead

All reg. voters

+14 pct. pts.

65 and older

RACE AND

EDUCATION

White, college

White, no coll.

PARTY

IDENTIFICATION

Independent

Republican

Very liberal

Somewhat liberal

Somewhat conservative

Very conservative

Westlake Legal Group all-table-300 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

All reg. voters

65 and older

RACE AND EDUCATION

White, college

White, no coll.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Independent

Republican

Very liberal

Somewhat liberal

Somewhat conservative

Very conservative


Sample sizes may not add to the total because some demographic characteristics of respondents are unknown.·Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,337 registered voters from June 17 to June 22.

Arlene Myles, 75, of Denver, said she had been a Republican for nearly six decades before switching her registration to independent earlier this year during Mr. Trump’s impeachment trial. Ms. Myles said that when Mr. Trump was first elected, she had resolved to “give him a chance,” but had since concluded that he and his party were irredeemable.

“I was one of those people who stuck by Nixon until he was waving goodbye,” Ms. Myles said. “I thought I was a good Republican and thought they had my values, but they have gone down the tubes these last few years.”

Ms. Myles said she planned to vote for Mr. Biden, expressing only one misgiving: “I wish he was younger,” she said.

Most stark may be Mr. Biden’s towering advantage among white women with college degrees, who support him over Mr. Trump by 39 percentage points. In 2016, exit polls found that group preferred Mrs. Clinton to Mr. Trump by just 7 percentage points. The poll also found that Mr. Biden has narrowed Mr. Trump’s advantage with less-educated white voters.

The exodus of white voters from the G.O.P. has been especially pronounced among younger voters, an ominous trend for a party that was already heavily reliant on older Americans.

Fifty-two percent of whites under 45 said they supported Mr. Biden while only 30 percent said they supported Mr. Trump. And their opposition is intense: More than twice as many younger whites viewed the president very unfavorably than very favorably.

Tom Diamond, 31, a Republican in Fort Worth, Texas, said he planned to vote for Mr. Trump but would do so with real misgivings. He called the president a “poor leader” who had mishandled the pandemic and said Mr. Biden seemed “like a guy you can trust.” But Mr. Trump held views closer to his own on the economy, health care and abortion.

“Part of you just feels icky voting for him,” Mr. Diamond said. “But definitely from a policy perspective, that’s where my vote’s going to go.”

Some unease toward Mr. Trump stems from voters’ racial attitudes. According to the poll, white voters under 45 are overwhelmingly supportive of the Black Lives Matter movement, while older whites are more tepid in their views toward racial justice activism. And nearly 70 percent of whites under 45 said they believed the killing of George Floyd was part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African-Americans rather than an isolated incident.

What’s striking, though, is that even among white seniors, one of Mr. Trump’s strongest constituencies, he has damaged himself with his conduct. About two-fifths of whites over 65 said they disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of both the coronavirus and race relations.

Mr. Trump retains a few points of strength in the poll that could offer him a way to regain a footing in the race, and the feeble condition of his candidacy right now may well represent his low point in a campaign with four and a half months still to go.

His approval rating is still narrowly positive on the issue of the economy, with 50 percent of voters giving him favorable marks compared with 45 percent saying the opposite. Should the fall campaign become a referendum on which candidate is better equipped to restore prosperity after the pandemic has subsided, that could give Mr. Trump a new opening to press his case.

The president is also still ahead of Mr. Biden among white voters without college degrees, who hold disproportionate influence in presidential elections because of how central the Midwest is to capturing 270 electoral votes.

Yet if Mr. Trump still has a significant measure of credibility with voters on the economy, he lacks any apparent political strength on the most urgent issues of the moment: the pandemic and the national reckoning on policing and race.

Nearly three-fifths of voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including majorities of white voters and men. Self-described moderate voters disapproved of Mr. Trump on the coronavirus by a margin of more than two to one.

Most of the country is also rejecting Mr. Trump’s call to reopen the economy as quickly as possible, even at the cost of exposing people to greater health risks. By a 21-point margin, voters said the federal government should prioritize containing the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, a view that aligns them with Mr. Biden.

Just a third of voters said the government should focus on restarting the economy even if that entails greater public-health risks.

That debate could become the central focus of the campaign in the coming weeks, as coronavirus outbreaks grow rapidly in a number of Republican-led states that have resisted the strict lockdown measures imposed in the spring by Democratic states like New York and California.

The public also does not share Mr. Trump’s resistance to mask wearing. The president has declined to don a mask in nearly all public appearances, even as top health officials in his administration have urged Americans to do so as a precaution against spreading the coronavirus. In the poll, 54 percent of people said they always wear a mask when they expect to be in proximity to other people, while another 22 percent said they usually wear a mask.

Just 22 percent said they rarely or never wear a mask.

Mr. Trump’s job approval on race relations was just as dismal. Sixty-one percent of voters said they disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of race, versus 33 percent who said they approved. By a similar margin, voters said they disapproved of his response to the protests after the death of Mr. Floyd.

Mr. Trump has sought several times in the last month to use demonstrations against the police as a political wedge issue, forcing Democrats to align themselves squarely either with law-enforcement agencies or with the most strident anti-police demonstrators.

The poll suggested most voters were rejecting that binary choice, as well as Mr. Trump’s harsh characterization of protesters: Large majorities said they had a positive overall assessment of both the Black Lives Matter movement and the police.


More voters feel strongly about Mr. Trump than they do about Mr. Biden





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Westlake Legal Group all-fav-600 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

Voter impressions of …

Very

favorable

Very

unfavorable

Very

favorable

Very

unfavorable

ALL REG. VOTERS

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older

Westlake Legal Group all-fav-300 Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race United States Economy Trump, Donald J Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion George Floyd Protests (2020) Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

Voter

impressions of:

Very

favorable

Very

unfavorable

ALL REG. VOTERS

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older

Voter

impressions of:

Very

favorable

Very

unfavorable

ALL REG. VOTERS

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older

Age 18 to 29

Age 30 to 44

Age 45 to 64

Age 65 and older


Sample sizes may not add to the total because some demographic characteristics of respondents are unknown.·Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,337 registered voters from June 17 to June 22.

The picture of Mr. Biden that emerges from the poll is one of a broadly acceptable candidate who inspires relatively few strong feelings in either direction. He is seen favorably by about half of voters and unfavorably by 42 percent. Only a quarter said they saw him very favorably, equaling the share that sees him in very negative terms.

Mr. Trump, by contrast, is seen very favorably by 27 percent of voters and very unfavorably by 50 percent.

Harry Hoyt, 72, of York County in Southern Maine, said he has sometimes voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past and cast a grudging vote for Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He felt better this time about his plan to vote for Mr. Biden.

“Biden would be a better candidate than Trump, simply because he’s a nice person,” Mr. Hoyt said. “One of the most important things to me is the character of the man in charge of our country.”

Significantly, one group that saw Mr. Biden as far more than just acceptable was black voters. Fifty-six percent of black respondents in the poll said they saw Mr. Biden very favorably, a far more enthusiastic judgment than from any other constituency.

The limited passion for Mr. Biden among other Democratic constituencies does not appear to be affecting his position against Mr. Trump. Though only 13 percent of people under 30 said they had a very favorable opinion of the former vice president, that group is backing Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by 34 percentage points.

Nicholas Angelos, a 20-year-old voter in Bloomington, Ind., who said he supported Senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, said he would vote for Mr. Biden as the “lesser of two evils.” He said he believed the former vice president would “try his best,” in contrast to Mr. Trump, whom he described as “an autocrat” and “anti-science.”

“We all have to compromise,” said Mr. Angelos, who described himself as very liberal. He added of Mr. Biden, “I don’t think he’s anything special.”

For the moment, voters also appear unpersuaded by one of the primary attack lines Mr. Trump and his party have used against Mr. Biden: the claim that, at age 77, he is simply too old for the presidency. Mr. Trump, 74, has mocked Mr. Biden’s mental acuity frequently over the last few months and his campaign has run television advertisements that cast Mr. Biden as absent-minded and inarticulate.

But three in five voters said in the poll that they disagreed with the claim that Mr. Biden was too old to be an effective president. The percentage of voters who agreed, 36 percent, exactly matched Mr. Trump’s existing support in the presidential race.

Lindsay Clark, 37, who lives in the suburbs of Salt Lake City, was among the voters who said she would probably vote for Mr. Trump because she was unsure Mr. Biden was “physically and mentally up to the task” of being president. But Ms. Clark expressed little admiration for Mr. Trump, whom she called unpresidential.

Ms. Clark, who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016, said she was hard-pressed to name something she really liked about Mr. Trump, eventually settling on the idea that he expressed himself bluntly.

“I was just trying to think if I could think of something off the top of my head that I was like, ‘Yes, I loved when you did that!’” she said of Mr. Trump. “And I kind of just can’t.”

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Lots of Drama but Little Certainty in Kentucky and New York Primaries

WASHINGTON — Voters in Kentucky and New York were selecting nominees in extraordinary circumstances on Tuesday, as fears about the coronavirus reduced the number of polling places and led to a surge in absentee balloting that was almost certain to delay the results, possibly for days.

Kentucky Democrats were deciding who would be their nominee against Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, in a race that was testing the power of money against the potency of the grass-roots activism that has sprung up around the Black Lives Matter movement.

Amy McGrath, a former Marine pilot who raised well over $40 million, was dominating the primary for months until state Representative Charles Booker roared into contention in recent weeks. His candidacy was lifted by the energy that rose up in response to the killing of Louisville’s Breonna Taylor and other unarmed black Americans by white police officers.

But even as voters turned out at a reduced number of polling stations in Kentucky, New York and Virginia, it was unclear when the party nominees would be known. With the coronavirus prompting officials to lead an aggressive push for absentee voting, the final results of the race were not expected for days. So in a close race, it may not be clear who won on Tuesday night or even Wednesday.

Indeed, The Associated Press, which traditionally calls races for many news organizations, said the Senate contest in Kentucky was among the dozens of races in the state in which it did not declare winners on Tuesday. Because of the delays caused by the virus, the A.P. said the state did not expect to release additional results until June 30 and it would not call any winners until then.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_173839443_2e3787e4-88f6-4189-a1bb-cac780bd610a-articleLarge Lots of Drama but Little Certainty in Kentucky and New York Primaries Polls and Public Opinion New York State New York City mcgrath, amy McConnell, Mitch Maloney, Carolyn B Kentucky Engel, Eliot L Elections, Senate Elections, House of Representatives Diaz, Ruben Sr Democratic Party Collins, Christopher C Bowman, Jamaal Booker, Charles (1984- )
Credit…Bryan Woolston/Reuters

There were, however, a handful of contests where the results were decisive, most notably, and embarrassingly for President Trump, in the western North Carolina House seat left open by the resignation of Mark Meadows, who became Mr. Trump’s chief of staff.

Mr. Meadows preferred a friend of his, real estate developer Lynda Bennett, and had Mr. Trump endorse her and even record an automated call on her behalf. But Ms. Bennett was routed in Tuesday’s runoff by a 24-year-old political newcomer, Madison Cawthorn.

Credit…WLOS

Mr. Trump’s Twitter tirade this spring against Representative Thomas Massie, Republican of Kentucky, who forced the House back into session during the pandemic, also did little to slow Mr. Massie, who easily won renomination.

In New York City, Representatives Jerrold Nadler, the chair of the high-profile House Judiciary Committee, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had both faced primaries. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez easily won her race, according to the A.P., and Mr. Nadler led his competition by a wide margin on Tuesday evening.

In Virginia, the most hotly-contested House primary illustrated the appeal in this moment of black candidates in racially diverse districts. Cameron Webb, an African-American doctor and former White House fellow, routed a handful of white opponents to capture the Democratic nomination in a conservative-leaning district where Republicans just ousted their incumbent, Representative Denver Riggleman, in a nominating convention.

For the most part, though, Tuesday marked the latest example of how the pandemic has turned election night into Election Week.

Absentee ballots in New York are not fully counted until a week after the election. And those ballots could represent about half of all votes cast in the primary.

The race drawing much of the attention in New York was the contest between Representative Eliot L. Engel, the veteran congressman from the Bronx, and Jamaal Bowman, an insurgent candidate backed by many of the Democrats’ most outspoken progressives.

Mr. Engel, fighting for his political life, countered Mr. Bowman by rolling out endorsements from party leaders, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton.

Like Mr. Booker, Mr. Bowman is an African-American attempting to build a multiracial coalition of white liberals and voters of color that could prove formidable if replicated by other nonwhite candidates.

Credit…Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

In Kentucky, fewer than 200 polling places were opened on Tuesday, a drastic reduction from the 3,700 locations that are often used in a typical election year. Absentee ballot requests soared in the state’s two largest cities, Louisville and Lexington. Yet a number of jurisdictions have indicated that on Tuesday they will only tabulate votes cast that day, or those cast that day combined with those cast during in-person early voting.

That would mean that potentially hundreds of thousands of absentee votes would not be counted until after Tuesday evening.

Mr. Booker was expected to run up a large margin in Louisville, his hometown and the largest city in the state, so the question was whether Ms. McGrath could overcome that advantage in more rural areas of eastern and western Kentucky.

Working in her favor is the nature of voting in the coronavirus age: Ms. McGrath banked a number of ballots from voters well before Mr. Booker’s late surge.

Whoever wins the Senate primary in Kentucky will face an uphill fight against Mr. McConnell in a state President Trump carried by nearly 30 points four years ago.

The contest between Ms. McGrath and Mr. Booker had also become a test of whether national Democratic leaders like Senator Chuck Schumer, who coronated Ms. McGrath last year, can maintain their hold over the party in a moment of growing progressive energy.

Political calculations have been altered in recent weeks as the nation reels from protests that erupted following the George Floyd killing in Minneapolis on Memorial Day. The intensity of those demonstrations, and calls for a national debate on race and law enforcement, has helped elevate some black candidates.

In a speech to supporters on Tuesday night, Mr. Bowman, a middle-school principal from Yonkers, spoke out against poverty, racism and sexism, among other social ills, “a system that’s literally killing us.” He said, if elected, he would be a “black man with power.”

“That is what Donald Trump is afraid of,” said Mr. Bowman, who held a significant lead over Mr. Engel as early returns rolled in, adding: “I cannot wait to get to Congress and cause problems.”

The liberal wave that swept Ms. Ocasio-Cortez into Congress in 2018 has continued to swell in New York, with primary candidates — usually younger, more idealistic, and less prone to to engage in pragmatic politics — emerging to challenge the Democratic establishment.

Credit…Mike Segar/Reuters

One after another, other left-wing challengers took on New York incumbents, including Representative Gregory Meeks, the chairman of the Queens Democratic Party; Representative Yvette Clarke, who faced a slew of upstart candidates in Brooklyn; and Representative Carolyn Maloney, who represents parts of three New York City boroughs.

Mr. Meeks won his race, according to the A.P., and Ms. Clarke held a comfortable lead in early returns. But Ms. Maloney was in a tight race with Suraj Patel, who ran against her in 2018.

While Democrats dominated the conversation in New York, two traditionally Republican seats were also drawing interest at opposite ends of the state.

In Long Island, Representative Peter King, the state’s most prominent Republican member of Congress, is retiring, leaving a wide-open race, and Democrats dreaming of a pickup in November.

In Western New York, State Senator Chris Jacobs held a Republican seat, winning a special election to complete the term of Chris Collins, who resigned last fall just before pleading guilty to federal insider trading charges. The Democratic candidate, Nate McMurray, had hoped to flip the deep-red 27th Congressional District, but has, in any case, pledged to fight Mr. Jacobs for a full term in November. President Trump and his son both offered endorsements for Mr. Jacobs in the closing days of the campaign.

Two open House seats — held by retiring Democrats in the lower Hudson Valley and the Bronx — were also being closely watched, with a scrum of candidates in both districts.

Credit…September Dawn Bottoms/The New York Times

In the Hudson Valley district held by Representative Nita Lowey, seven Democrats were in the race, including Mondaire Jones, a Harvard educated lawyer seeking to become the first openly gay black member of Congress. Mr. Jones held a sizable lead late Tuesday.

In the Bronx, an even bigger free-for-all was underway in the 15th Congressional District, with a collection of rising Democratic stars and older political veterans seeking to replace the outgoing congressman, José E. Serrano. There, Rubén Díaz Sr., a conservative former state senator with a history of anti-gay remarks, had been considered among the favorites, but was trailing City Councilman Ritchie Torres and Assemblyman Michael A. Blake in early returns. If he emerged victorious, Mr. Torres, too, could be the first openly gay black member of Congress.

Across the state, the pandemic upended the practicalities of electoral democracy: In late April, after the deaths of thousands of New Yorkers, and amid fears of a second wave, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo increased access to absentee voting by mail, resulting in election officials issuing nearly two million ballots to voters statewide. Mr. Cuomo later allowed those ballots to be postmarked as late as Primary Day.

The sheer number of absentee ballots to be counted could prove daunting to election officials, especially considering the fraught and fractious battles over vote counts even before the coronavirus, like last year’s contested election for district attorney in Queens.

Before voting began on Tuesday morning, New York City officials were warning that some polling sites could open late because of overnight subway closures. Still there were only scattered reports of problems at some poll locations in the city.

In Kentucky, fears of long lines in Louisville, which only had one polling location, did not come true.

Credit…Erik Branch for The New York Times

But a largely smooth day of voting there turned more problematic as polls closed; voters complained of traffic getting into the city’s sole polling location, preventing them from getting in line on time.

The Booker campaign filed a petition with a local judge, as voters crowded the locked doors of the Expo Center and pounded on the glass windows. Eventually, a judge ruled that the doors could be reopened and voters who had been caught in traffic could vote. The center began breaking down its voting equipment roughly an hour later.

The state’s second-largest city, Lexington, was plagued by waits of up to two hours at the University of Kentucky’s football stadium. In-person turnout exceeded the predictions of local election officials, and the check-in process at the stadium had created a bottleneck that lead to the longer lines.

By early afternoon, though, county officials added more check-in options and the lines shrunk considerably. But the mass consolidation of polling places concerned some activists about the potential for a similar setup in November.

Luis Ferré-Sadurní and Nick Corasaniti contributed reporting.

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Trump Faces a Decision on Whether to Keep Fighting DACA, but Not on Attacking the Courts

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court protected young immigrants from immediate deportation on Thursday, but the decision ensured that their long-term fate would remain at the center of a divisive political clash as President Trump fights for another term in the final months of the 2020 election.

The court’s opinion, written by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., was a victory for so-called Dreamers, the young immigrants who face deportation and the loss of work permits if the program known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, is terminated. But the court did not say that Mr. Trump could not end it, only that he did not follow the proper rules and procedures in trying to do so.

The president and his hard-line immigration advisers like Stephen Miller must now decide whether to give up or try again — an effort that would almost certainly extend beyond the election in the fall. But in a series of posts on Twitter, Mr. Trump hinted that he intended to make good on his promise in 2016 to eliminate the program, which he has called an illegal use of executive authority by President Barack Obama.

“Now we have to start this process all over again,” Mr. Trump wrote, calling the court’s opinion “a highly political one, and seemingly not based on the law.”

For Mr. Trump, no issue is more fraught. Few things would fire up his base more than renewing his plan to deport hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants just months before the election. Failing to deliver on that pledge risks alienating his most fervent supporters on the issue that powered his victory to the White House.

Chad F. Wolf, the acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, insisted on Thursday that that would not happen.

“The DACA program was created out of thin air and implemented illegally,” he said. “The American people deserve to have the nation’s laws faithfully executed as written by their representatives in Congress — not based on the arbitrary decisions of a past administration. This ruling usurps the clear authority of the executive branch to end unlawful programs.”

But the Dreamers are not the gang members he so often claims are part of caravans from Central America arriving at the southwestern border. Most are respected members of society who are in many ways indistinguishable from the American citizens with whom they attended elementary, middle and high school.

And pushing for an end to DACA could alienate swing voters who are critical to Mr. Trump’s hopes for a second term and for moderate Republicans who are crucial to the party’s effort to maintain control of the Senate. Public polls show overwhelming support for the young immigrants, even among Republican voters.

“Is the president going to make the closing argument for his election an effort to strip away DACA and start large scale deportation for the Dreamers?” Todd Schulte, the president of Fwd.us, a business group that advocates on behalf of immigrants, asked Thursday after the ruling. “That is a political loser.”

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_173635581_da60bd6b-c7e9-448d-aaba-e7f8557a7702-articleLarge Trump Faces a Decision on Whether to Keep Fighting DACA, but Not on Attacking the Courts Trump, Donald J Roberts, John G Jr Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Miller, Stephen (1985- ) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Courts and the Judiciary
Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times

At the same time, the court’s 5-to-4 decision gives Mr. Trump a new opening to rally his right-wing base by arguing that he needs another four years to stack the courts with conservative jurists who will rule in his favor on immigration, abortion, gun rights and other contentious cultural issues. Since taking office, Mr. Trump — with the help of Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader — has aggressively pushed to install conservative judges on the bench, including two to the Supreme Court: Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh.

And on Thursday, the president made clear his work was not done.

“These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives,” Mr. Trump tweeted barely an hour after the court announced that he had improperly terminated the Obama-era program.

Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, echoed Mr. Trump in a statement, lashing out at Chief Justice Roberts, who was appointed by President George W. Bush, a Republican, and vowing to make the court an issue in November.

“If the chief justice believes his political judgment is so exquisite, I invite him to resign, travel to Iowa, and get elected,” Mr. Cotton wrote. “I suspect voters will find his strange views no more compelling than do the principled justices on the court.”

After the court’s ruling on Thursday, immigration advocates said they took seriously the president’s threat to once again try to terminate DACA, promising to fight for the permanent legal status of nearly 800,000 young immigrants.

“They may be foolish enough to go after DACA again, but I hope they know and see that America has the DREAMERS’ backs,” Cecilia Muñoz, who served as Mr. Obama’s top adviser on Hispanic issues and domestic policy, wrote on Twitter. She added a warning to the president and his aides about the political power of the pro-immigrant movement.

“We see you, Donald Trump, we see you Stephen Miller,” she said, “and we’re coming for you.”

Whatever the president decides to do, the debate over what happens to the Dreamers in the long run will play out most starkly in the presidential contest between Mr. Trump and the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Mr. Biden hailed the ruling on Thursday and vowed to introduce legislation on his first day in office that would give the young immigrants permanent legal status in the United States. Efforts to pass such legislation have failed for more than a decade, but he said the court’s temporary protections raise the stakes of the November election.

“I will continue to stand with DACA recipients, their parents and their families at every step, and in November, joined by millions across this country, we will reject the president who tried to rip so many of our family members, friends and co-workers out of our lives,” Mr. Biden said in a statement.

The issue is already at the forefront of several key Senate races. Hours after the ruling, a Democratic group issued a news release calling attention to votes by Senator Cory Gardner, a moderate Republican from Colorado.

“Time and again Cory Gardner voted to repeal DACA and deport thousands of Colorado Dreamers and no amount of election season revisionist history from Gardner can change that,” wrote Zach Hudson, a spokesman for the group, American Bridge.

In Arizona, the court ruling could help efforts by Democrats who are seeking to defeat Senator Martha McSally. Tomás Robles Jr., the co-executive director of Living United for Change in Arizona, said Thursday that the temporary nature of the decision created an energy and immediacy around defeating Ms. McSally and blocking Mr. Trump’s re-election.

“We have a few months to get him out of office. And if we don’t succeed, he will come with the correct process to eliminate DACA,” Mr. Robles said.

But on Thursday, Trump administration officials gave little indication that they were looking for compromise on the issue.

Stephanie Saul contributed reporting from New York, and Hank Stephenson from Phoenix.

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As Americans Shift on Racism, Trump Digs In

WASHINGTON — NASCAR is demanding that its fans no longer fly Confederate flags at races. The Pentagon and some Republican senators are open to renaming military bases that bear the names of Confederate soldiers. Corporate America is taking stances against racial injustice. A majority of Americans say the police show racial bias in their use of force, and a majority of self-described conservatives acknowledge protesters’ frustrations are at least somewhat justified.

Yet with public opinion shifting quickly on racism in America, and even some of the most cautious leaders and institutions talking openly about discrimination and reconciliation, there is still one glaring outlier: President Trump.

Whether it is suggesting shooting protesters or siccing dogs on them, pre-emptively defending the Confederate names of military installations or arguing that his supporters “love the black people,” Mr. Trump increasingly sounds like a cultural relic, detached from not just the left-leaning protesters in the streets but also the country’s political middle and even some Republican allies and his own military leaders.

While Mr. Trump has a long history of making insensitive and tone-deaf comments on race, including remarks widely seen as racist, he has never appeared more isolated on a dominant social and political moment in the country, hunkered down at the White House tweeting conspiracy theories about injured protesters and describing demonstrators as “THUGS.”

He regularly uses harsh and violent language that no other American leader employs, vocally supporting the views of white nationalists and even defenders of white supremacy rather than the views expressed by majorities of Americans in polls.

“He’s talking as if this is a country in the 1950s and not 2020,” said Levar Stoney, the mayor of Richmond, Va., where a multiracial group of protesters has prompted the city and state to take down Confederate statues.

At a time when the country is confronting three overlapping crises — the coronavirus, an economic collapse and a reckoning with racism and injustice — Mr. Trump’s inability to demonstrate empathy illustrates the limitations of his political arsenal. He is well equipped to compete in a campaign where slashing negative attacks are the order of the day, and few salesmen speak in superlatives like the former hotel magnate. Yet when the moment calls for neither pugilism nor promotion, he has little to say.

Reinforcing Mr. Trump’s instincts and decisions are a small group of advisers, like those who arranged for the president to hold a campaign rally on June 19 in Tulsa, Okla. — on a day dedicated to honoring black emancipation, Juneteenth, and in a city that saw one of the worst episodes of racial violence in the country’s history a century ago.

Even if that choice of timing was unintentional, it’s hard to overlook the insensitivity over race when the president’s campaign is selling “Baby Lives Matter” onesies on its website.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_173376798_b55ae02f-8134-4d1b-97a6-6b5430b4610f-articleLarge As Americans Shift on Racism, Trump Digs In Whites Trump, Donald J Republican Party Race and Ethnicity Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Police Brutality, Misconduct and Shootings George Floyd Protests (2020) discrimination Black People
Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York Times

On Thursday, in remarks in Dallas, Mr. Trump tried to highlight how black unemployment had fallen before the coronavirus, and noted his administration’s work on criminal justice reform. But he also falsely suggested that the protest movement seeking to “defund the police” would lead to eliminating emergency phone lines.

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Updated 2020-06-12T02:03:08.828Z

“I heard they want to close up all police forces,” Mr. Trump said. “It’s not like they want to sort of bring a little money into something else. They want it actually closed. I’m thinking, what happens late at night when you make that call to 911 and there’s nobody there?” That remark drew some applause, yet the substance and tone emphasized fear-mongering at a time when many Americans are grappling with how to address police violence.

The president sounds even more out of step because of the comments of some of his Republican contemporaries, who have not focused on racial justice during the Black Lives Matter era.

“We are still wrestling with America’s original sin,” said Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, who has praised the peaceful protests taking place in, as he noted, his state’s cities and small towns while lamenting “the obvious racial discrimination that we’ve seen on full display on our television screens over the last two weeks.”

It is too soon to know whether Republicans like Mr. McConnell — or even large numbers of Americans — will support real action that curbs racial inequality. Mr. Trump’s allies and supporters have rallied around him, time and again. And recent polling shows that many Republicans continue to view some claims of racial discrimination with suspicion.

But this week, Democrats have introduced law enforcement overhaul legislation that goes far beyond what they have pushed before. And Mr. McConnell, recognizing the country is demanding action, tapped Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, the only black Senate Republican, to lead an effort on how to address police misconduct.

As the G.O.P. confronts an increasingly forbidding political climate this year, the party is responding to fast-moving polling, which indicates that an overwhelming number of independents and even about half of Republican voters believe George Floyd’s killing represents a broad problem with policing.

Yet nearly five years since Mr. Trump announced his presidential campaign with the inflammatory accusation that Mexico was sending rapist migrants across the border, he is still conducting himself as if there’s a vast audience for a hard-line tone on race. And it’s wearing on even some of his most steadfast allies.

“We need to have this president and both parties say, ‘We feel your pain,’” said Bishop Harry Jackson, a black pastor who is one of Mr. Trump’s evangelical advisers. “There needs to be a discussion to African-Americans and other minorities that the loss of life historically matters. Everybody’s got to feel that from him.”

Politically speaking, Mr. Trump has long sought to align himself with law enforcement and cultural traditionalists. But if he has the support of many of them, his hostility toward the protesters has left him out of sync with many other Americans at a time when his re-election prospects are sagging.

“When I saw some of those people breaking into stores, I said, ‘Damn, stop that,’” said former Gov. James B. Hunt of North Carolina, explaining that he was worried the looting would only prompt a moderate white backlash. “But that hasn’t become the story this time. People are seeing things differently today.”

Mr. Trump has never had most Americans’ trust on matters of race, helping to explain why he’s struggled to stem the tide of a protest movement demanding racial justice.

Credit…Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Mr. Trump has portrayed protesters as “terrorists” and extremists while praising most law enforcement officers as “great people.” Yet in a Monmouth University poll released last week, 57 percent of Americans — including a majority of white people — said the anger that led to the protests was completely justified. Even among self-described conservatives, 65 percent said the protesters’ frustrations were at least somewhat justified.

The data is even more striking among younger people. In a new Washington Post-Schar School survey, 41 percent of Republicans over 55 said they believed the killing of Mr. Floyd reflected a broader problem. That figure grew to 52 percent among Republicans under 55, however. There is a similar generational gap among independent voters.

Part of the difference owes to the experience of millennial Christians, who grew up in schools and churches that were integrated, enjoy a more diverse set of friends and are appalled by the police violence against black men they are seeing on their screens.

“Younger Republicans want to see racial disparities fixed,” said Wesley Donehue, a South Carolina-based G.O.P. strategist. “If Republicans don’t address these issues now, we will lose the next generation of young voters, just as we have minorities.”

What’s remarkable to a number of people across the political spectrum is that Mr. Trump seems to be missing what is all but screaming in neon — clear in everything from the diverse makeup of the protesters to the legions of people sending anti-racist books to the top of best seller lists.

“It wasn’t just black people,” DeJuana Thompson, an Alabama-based activist who just returned home from marching in Minneapolis and Louisville, said of her experience. “This is a clarifying moment for our country, and people are being asked to come out of our comfort zones.”

Eleanor Holmes Norton, who represents Washington, D.C., in Congress and was active in the 1960s civil rights movement, said she had been struck by how many of the protesters in her hometown have been white.

“So many white people have taken this to heart,” Ms. Holmes Norton said.

Paul Finebaum, a popular college football talk show host, is detecting that every day on his ESPN call-in show. Mr. Finebaum has had a series of candid and at times awkward conversations about race with callers and coaches, black and white alike, in recent weeks.

“This is a watershed moment,” he said, remarking that the white people calling into his show were watching the protests “more open-mindedly than I’ve ever heard before.”

Yet on Wednesday, there was Mr. Trump, a native New Yorker, extolling the virtues of Southern heritage in making the case against changing the names of the military bases. His argument seemed even more jarring that night, when a 26-year-old black NASCAR driver, Bubba Wallace, wore a T-shirt that said “I Can’t Breathe” and drove a Chevy with “Black Lives Matter” emblazoned on the side around the Martinsville, Va., track.

Randall Woodfin, the mayor of Birmingham, Ala., is seeing changing attitudes in another conservative institution.

“C.E.O.s and leaders across corporate Birmingham are engaging their employees and saying, ‘Look, we can’t ignore this conversation, let’s make sure our values are not only in line, but let’s make sure we act on our values,’” Mr. Woodfin said.

Mr. Trump is often stilted in such discussions. And he has harbored offensive attitudes on race for years, including his searing attacks on the Central Park Five and his idea, on “The Apprentice,” for an all-white team competing against an all-black team.

As Mitch Landrieu, the former New Orleans mayor, put it: “America is grabbing white people’s faces and saying, ‘Look at this, do not turn away’ — and they’re not.”

But the most powerful white person in America is averting his gaze, and it appears more discordant by the day.

Giovanni Russonello contributed reporting, and Kitty Bennett and Isabella Grullón Paz contributed research.

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Trump Will Return to Campaign Trail With Rally in Tulsa

Westlake Legal Group 10trump-rally1-facebookJumbo Trump Will Return to Campaign Trail With Rally in Tulsa United States Politics and Government Tulsa (Okla) Trump, Donald J Shutdowns (Institutional) Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Oklahoma Coronavirus Reopenings Biden, Joseph R Jr

WASHINGTON — President Trump will return to the campaign trail on June 19 with a rally in Tulsa, Okla., for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak forced most of the country into quarantine three months ago, a campaign official said Wednesday, as polls show former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. establishing a significant national lead over Mr. Trump and the president’s approval ratings plummeting.

Oklahoma, a deep-red state Mr. Trump won four years ago by 36 percentage points, began lifting restrictions on businesses on April 24 and moved into Phase 3 of its reopening on June 1, allowing summer camps to open and workplaces to return with full staffing levels.

Trump campaign officials are unlikely to put into place any social distancing measures for rally attendees, or require them to wear masks, people familiar with the decision-making process said, adding that it would be unnecessary because the state is so far along in its reopening.

Mr. Trump has also made it clear he doesn’t want to speak in front of gatherings that look empty because of social distancing, or to look out on a sea of covered faces as he tries to project a positive message about the country returning to normal life and the economy roaring back, even as his top health advisers have warned the pandemic is far from over. “Oh my goodness,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, said Tuesday. “Where is it going to end? We’re still at the beginning of it.”

Campaign officials said they were considering some modest attempts at reducing risk by providing hand sanitizer on site, but said no final decisions had been made about how to safely bring together a large group of people.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Oklahoma had recorded 7,480 cases of the coronavirus and 355 deaths, according to its health department.

“Americans are ready to get back to action and so is President Trump,” Brad Parscale, the president’s campaign manager, said in a statement earlier in the week. “The Great American Comeback is real and the rallies will be tremendous.”

Mr. Trump will return to the campaign trail on Juneteenth, an annual holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States and celebrated as African-Americans’ Independence Day. After weeks of protests over the killing of George Floyd in police custody, protests and marches are already planned this year for the holiday in many states.

In 1921, Tulsa was the site of one of the country’s bloodiest outbreaks of racial violence, when white mobs attacked black citizens and businesses with guns and explosives dropped from airplanes.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump also said he planned to hold rallies in Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.

In March, as the country began to shut down to help stop the spread of the virus, Mr. Trump reluctantly canceled campaign rallies planned for Colorado, Nevada and Wisconsin, and he has not been out for an official campaign event since then.

Instead, for weeks, he tried to use the White House briefing room as a rally stand-in, holding 90-minute news conferences where he aimed to rebrand himself as a “wartime president.” But those efforts quickly devolved into fights with reporters as the president made stunningly inaccurate claims, including a suggestion that injecting disinfectant into the human body could help combat the coronavirus.

In response, his poll numbers have dipped and his aides have warned him that his behavior is hurting him with many critical voting blocs, like older people and women.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump continued with the outbursts, falsely targeting and attacking a 75-year-old protester in Buffalo who was in the hospital recovering from a head wound sustained when the police shoved him to the ground.

Republicans in Washington say that it has become increasingly clear to them that Mr. Trump cannot win the election from behind the Resolute Desk and that they are hoping the return to the campaign trail will offer the president a familiar and beloved outlet that will energize him.

But for years now, Mr. Trump’s rallies have not shocked, awed and driven news cycles the way they did during the 2016 election, when he was an unknown political entity.

And during the 2018 midterm election cycle, aides and advisers unsuccessfully pinned their hopes on rallies to improve the president’s mood over his lackluster polls and the special counsel’s investigation. But they did little to stabilize his frame of mind, or keep him less active on Twitter.

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