New Emerson poll that just released in the last hour, A- on 538.
Bernie 30% (+8)
Biden 21% (-2)
Klobuchar 13% (+3)
Warren 11% (-1)
Buttigieg 10% (-8)
Some other info from the poll:
Sanders holds a solid lead among both male and female voters. Among men, Sanders has 32% support, followed by Biden at 22%, Klobuchar at 14%, and Gabbard at 9%. Among women, Sanders is at 28%, Biden is at 20%, Warren is at 15% and Buttigieg is at 13%.
Sanders performs the strongest among voters under 50. 44% of those under 50 plan to support Sanders, followed by Warren with 10%; no other candidate reaches double digits. Among those over 50, voters are more split: 32% plan to support Biden, 18% plan to support Sanders, 17% Klobuchar, 15% Buttigieg, and 12% plan to caucus for Warren.
The majority of voters, 53%, support candidate Andrew Yang’s signature policy of Universal Basic Income of $1000 a month for all U.S. citizens over the age of 18. This contrasts to 30% who do not support the plan and 17% who are unsure. Those 18-29 years old are the most likely to support this policy, with 83% of support. A majority (61%) of those 30-49 years support UBI, while only 45% of those 50-64, and 32% of those 65 and older support the policy.
Respondents were asked who their second choice would be if their first choice candidate fails to reach viability. Klobuchar supporters are breaking for Biden at 39%, followed by Buttigieg at 28%. Sanders is the top second choice of Warren supporters at 51%, 17% of Warren supporters chose Klobuchar as their second choice, and 16% of them chose Biden as their second choice. And of Buttigieg supporters, Biden is the most popular second choice option with 35%, by Klobuchar at 25% and Warren at 23%. For Yang supporters, 49% of his support would fall to Sanders, followed by 18% who indicate would leave the caucus if Yang is unsuccessful in gaining caucus support. A plurality of Gabbard supporters (35%) will leave the caucus if she does not reach viability, followed by 26% who would move to Warren, and 18% who would move to Sanders.
This is the 3rd of 4 high-quality polls released this weekend that have Bernie leading in Iowa.
Siena College / NYT (A+) has Bernie at 25%, 30% if they cut everyone below the 15% viability threshold, both 7 points above second place.
YouGov (B-) has Bernie at 26%, just ahead of Biden at 25%.
Suffolk (A-) has Biden at 25%, 6 points above Bernie’s 19%.
Emerson (this one, A-) has Bernie at 30%, 9 points above Biden.
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