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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "r/politics" (Page 26)

U.S. Could Be Thrown Out of Olympics Over Trump Funding Threats, World Anti-Doping Agency Warns

Westlake Legal Group YR5MzpoWripzh9bfsSazox5-BThOWva7R6js6wm44vA U.S. Could Be Thrown Out of Olympics Over Trump Funding Threats, World Anti-Doping Agency Warns r/politics

There’s also a very strong tendency for conservatives and right-wingers to favor isolationism (conservatives reading this who don’t favor isolationism please know that there is no need for you to say “I’m conservative and don’t favor isolationism,” no ones saying you don’t exist, it’s just a strong tendency, this is not about you so shut up).

Things like rejecting NATO, rejecting trade deals, rejecting the WHO etc are all things which benefit Russian interests, and I’m sure Putin is telling him to do these things, but they’re also moves which a lot of people on the right already think are great ideas. The slogan “America First” may as well be “America Alone.” They don’t want the US involved in mutually beneficial global enterprises.

So Putin might be pulling the strings, but what he’s directing Trump to do is in line with what many conservatives (and not just the crazy ones) already wanted even before 2016.

Westlake Legal Group wuUSir_5uQXUnxW9aW8Ok8_2SsbYjo4tqA_OW0xM0Ds U.S. Could Be Thrown Out of Olympics Over Trump Funding Threats, World Anti-Doping Agency Warns r/politics

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‘This is who he is’: Founder of veterans group blasts Trump for reportedly calling dead soldiers ‘losers’

Westlake Legal Group tLMHljg6ugqD-snvvx0RlaI_7Bgid5xaP3iG_7P1N5s 'This is who he is': Founder of veterans group blasts Trump for reportedly calling dead soldiers 'losers' r/politics

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Westlake Legal Group 6PdFkVOS1VdEJD1IxMrNRO2YIRBvur3QCThOt0pO7e0 'This is who he is': Founder of veterans group blasts Trump for reportedly calling dead soldiers 'losers' r/politics

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Trump reportedly called John McCain a ‘f—ing loser’ and said ‘we’re not going to support that loser’s funeral’

Westlake Legal Group dhDw1cDuF89-uF1JRq7t30w4NRNmkhTmxAXGKYHTJTY Trump reportedly called John McCain a 'f---ing loser' and said 'we're not going to support that loser's funeral' r/politics

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Westlake Legal Group 4VFNZOKVs3KUnbkVAEi7nnl1CX2leApsOv-g8Td861E Trump reportedly called John McCain a 'f---ing loser' and said 'we're not going to support that loser's funeral' r/politics

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Arnold Schwarzenegger Offers To Pay For Reopening Of Polling Places In The South: ‘I’m A Fanatic About Voting’

Westlake Legal Group xlIvs_kcU9La0tTM55p_9BYo35YVT9lYsj44nIBAepY Arnold Schwarzenegger Offers To Pay For Reopening Of Polling Places In The South: 'I’m A Fanatic About Voting' r/politics

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Westlake Legal Group lC8tAn_dyEJVDV37BlJYULkTw34ymTarsUTsd7Ak_z8 Arnold Schwarzenegger Offers To Pay For Reopening Of Polling Places In The South: 'I’m A Fanatic About Voting' r/politics

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Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

Westlake Legal Group JCudHHcGmXPk6qaJYbIH5AXzE0Vyuhw6zBjRkW_V8Rc Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’ r/politics

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Score hidden · 35 minutes ago

Westlake Legal Group Zcd2Em-Qrzph_RcA2b7RXyYlBYYZ0vACvJhsDyFRO0c Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’ r/politics

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)

Westlake Legal Group QuAF-YOydZeFiTygKYRRaVcBLe0P5NqZoqX4LddMwMY General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020) r/politics

Introduction

Welcome to the /r/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you’ll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.

As always though, polls don’t vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven’t yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

  • Cook Political Reports – Charlie Cook’s race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he’s been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.

  • Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.

  • Inside Elections – Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg’s Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump’s path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.

  • Daily Kos Elections – Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren’t up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.

  • RRH Elections – Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.

  • Media predictions – CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making “educated guesses” on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

  • FiveThirtyEight – 538’s runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.

  • Princeton Election Consortium – this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he’d eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.

  • JHK Forecasts – the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting’s model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.

  • The Economist – this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.

  • Niskanen Center – Rachel Bitecofer’s projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer’s central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.

  • Lean Tossup – a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they’ve tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.

  • Primary Model – Helmut Norpoth’s model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

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Attorney General Barr incorrectly claims Jacob Blake was ‘armed’ when he was shot by police

Westlake Legal Group ko4D3PempG7iqWO4NtPQZ4McGTgj38_vMdxoS3Hkvec Attorney General Barr incorrectly claims Jacob Blake was 'armed' when he was shot by police r/politics

The attorney general attempted to draw distinctions between the police killings of George Floyd and Mr Blake.

“What’s different?” Blitzer asked.

That’s when Mr Barr suggested Mr Blake had a weapon.

“Floyd was already subdued, incapacitated in handcuffs and was not armed,” Mr Barr said. “In the Jacob case, he was in the midst of committing a felony and he was armed. So that’s a big difference.”

Though Mr Blake did have a knife in his car, there is no evidence available that supports the claim that he was armed or suggests that his intention was to grab his knife and use it against police officers.

During the interview, Blitzer told Mr Barr that, according to Mr Blake’s family, the man was unarmed at the time of the shooting.

“I stated what I believe to be the difference,” Mr Barr said, not acknowledging his inaccurate statement.

When the chief LEO of the United States is lying in broad daylight, in a way that is intentionally fomenting violence, and it’s not the biggest story of the day, something is VERY wrong. Seriously. I can’t even…

Westlake Legal Group _VwecjCgSlzWfo-GiMEQUBL2xeifLKrwpKiMw5lYiVQ Attorney General Barr incorrectly claims Jacob Blake was 'armed' when he was shot by police r/politics

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Discussion Thread: Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany Holds a Briefing – 09/03/2020 | Live – 1pm ET

Westlake Legal Group Z-nXrxKAVuTDWg39EGTlrLCGl78MCYVW46Qm6VpFI8k Discussion Thread: Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany Holds a Briefing - 09/03/2020 | Live - 1pm ET r/politics

With that binder there is no way she’s only working 22 minutes. I guarantee you she spends hours compiling that to answer any question that triggers a keyword on her section labels. And if she can’t, she says “I’ll have to refer you to XYZ” or “we are working on that and will get back to you.” Then she does her homework to go and put that topic in her binder.

Hate her or love her for the shit she spews, but she’s on it. Doesn’t help to have plants there to ask certain questions.

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Baltimore postal facility sat on 68,000 pieces of election mail for 5 days ahead of primary, audit shows

Westlake Legal Group dIs43sIKr2b0u9SnKCMSRRMsWHAvshyIqZ63Ssx3RYU Baltimore postal facility sat on 68,000 pieces of election mail for 5 days ahead of primary, audit shows r/politics

my friend spent $800 on fertilized snake eggs that he paid another $150 to have shipped in a special safe “live animal” container

they’re all sitting somewhere, dead, now. Hell, even if they somehow miraculously hatched, they’dve all suffocated or died of starvation. What kills me is that he doesn’t even give a fuck about money, he said he’dve literally driven there to pick them up himself in person if he knew where the hell they last were lost track of but nobody would even tell him that. I’m scared that he’s going to have a meltdown when a box full of dead animals arrives on his doorstep. He had a gorgeous, high-tech terrarium-like tank waiting for them. His fridge has a container of little worms he was going to feed them, that are still alive. He really loved what were going to be his pets.

I figure it’s like this all over. What if people did this with other pets? How many dead fucking animals that people were ready to love are sitting, rotting, in crates or boxes right now, having died of neglect?

Westlake Legal Group QWVPTymNH9pJjCt5VSwHCuQMQWQ5gt0Nug_lbUdbpdE Baltimore postal facility sat on 68,000 pieces of election mail for 5 days ahead of primary, audit shows r/politics

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I am William D Hughes, Democratic candidate for Representative of Georgia House District 21 around Holly Springs – AMA

Westlake Legal Group yb5EC3qh6Mp1lI8lXQIm9g2jFmDU5Q5Z52OuXscRN8Q I am William D Hughes, Democratic candidate for Representative of Georgia House District 21 around Holly Springs - AMA r/politics

Late last year I was sitting on my couch and received a text message from a Democratic organization asking if I had ever considered running for office.  Like a lot of people who discuss politics energetically, I had.  I replied, “Yes,” and went to meet with leaders from Cherokee County Democrats and the Democratic Party of Georgia, and we determined that I should run for Representative in the Georgia Assembly, House District 21.  This district has been a Republican stronghold for a long time, but we believe that it’s possible to win due to the current challenges facing Georgia such as the coronavirus pandemic (check out r/CoronavirusGA for great work by u/N4BFR and others), the equality protests spurred by the murders of Georgia Floyd and Breonna Taylor nationally, as well as the murders of Ahmaud Arbery by racists and Rayshard Brooks by police in Georgia, and the focus on civil rights brought about by the loss of one of the greatest Georgia political leaders, John Lewis.

My main concern is that the government of Georgia has been under total Republican control since 2005, and during that time the Republican elected officials running the state executive and legislative branches have focused more and more on their national party’s goals and concerns while leaving my neighbors in HD-21 and across the state to fend for themselves.  This can be seen in the refusal to expand Medicaid, our crumbling infrastructure, repeated attempts to block women’s access to abortion, and more.  The national Republican Party is committed to the idea that government is bad, and they apply that belief by governing badly.

My commitment in this campaign is to focus on the people of House District 21 first, followed by the people of Georgia, and that’s it.  I’m running as a Democrat, but the national Democratic Party is not my concern as a candidate for the state legislature.  I will work closely with other state Democrats and any Republicans who are committed to serving the people of Georgia first, foremost, and always by bringing their voices to the Georgia General Assembly.  We have to set aside our aspirations for future national office or cushy consulting gigs and bring our state out of the murk and gloom of 15+ years caused by Bad Government Republicans.

I have done 2 previous AMAs, one on r/Georgia and one on r/VoteDEM.  I’m looking forward to your questions!

Check out an interview I did with PeachPod: A Georgia Politics Podcast last month.  For people who prefer video, I created a Playlist so you can watch me fidget and wave my hands around.  I had previously had an interview with Indivisible GA-11, a group focused on all the political goings-on in Georgia’s 11th US Congressional District, and created a playlist for that.

For keeping track of what I’m thinking day-to-day, I recommend my Facebook page (links below).  I am most active there. Check out my Ballotpedia entry.

 – Hughes For Georgia website

 – Hughes For Georgia Facebook

 – Hughes For Georgia Twitter

 – Hughes For Georgia YouTube

 – Hughes For Georgia Instagram

Proof: https://i.redd.it/ey7csa3188j51.jpg

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com