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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "r/politics" (Page 278)

#KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas

Westlake Legal Group tRVbSaiDWpOu2ejQCaMBla4ndrNlpQN7xGVqH3TvTAQ #KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas r/politics

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#KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas

Westlake Legal Group tRVbSaiDWpOu2ejQCaMBla4ndrNlpQN7xGVqH3TvTAQ #KremlinKevin Trends After People Point Out Top House Republican Kevin McCarthy Took Donations From Lev Parnas r/politics

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Guess who paid for Donald Trump’s crazy-corrupt Mar-a-Lago Christmas party? We did

Westlake Legal Group p09rHOdCB34FGEnC9MG1M7B7pd_iyWmcRA00GWLTfhs Guess who paid for Donald Trump's crazy-corrupt Mar-a-Lago Christmas party? We did r/politics

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Trump Adviser Caught on Tape Discussing ‘Aggressive’ Voter Suppression in 2020 — “Let’s start playing offense a little bit. That’s what you’re going to see in 2020. It’s going to be a much bigger program, a much more aggressive program, a much better-funded program,” Justin Clark said

Westlake Legal Group 0CIHkcEcMWuUmK2XDX1vu_PBTTSt4EzC00SpatjrNyQ Trump Adviser Caught on Tape Discussing ‘Aggressive’ Voter Suppression in 2020 — “Let’s start playing offense a little bit. That’s what you’re going to see in 2020. It’s going to be a much bigger program, a much more aggressive program, a much better-funded program,” Justin Clark said r/politics

I feel like this is the best point to hammer home whenever you find yourself in an argument with a Republican.

Everyone should be on board with the idea that everyone gets to vote and that it shouldn’t be an ordeal. Completely ignoring the made-up excuse of combating voter fraud, what is the possible reason for closing polling places, purging voter rolls, closing down facilities to even get the IDs that they require to vote.

And even regarding voter fraud, federal courts have ruled time and time again that there simply isn’t enough evidence of voter fraud to justify the overly restrictive ID laws that Republicans try to enforce.

People will try to argue about dead people voting and the like, which is a completely different problem called election fraud that does routinely happen. And strict ID laws don’t prevent that.

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The GOP Traded Their Souls for Tax Cuts and Judges. Dems Should Take Them Away in 2021.

Westlake Legal Group tc1-WrWJcLmkBV0P4v4G6EAA_iOQo1HCcnwno0JWoM8 The GOP Traded Their Souls for Tax Cuts and Judges. Dems Should Take Them Away in 2021. r/politics

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Trump rails against windmills: ‘I never understood wind’

Westlake Legal Group fyKp7mPMolJH98AUwJJZ_p6gadWlLy9ly6zoA3jQU_Q Trump rails against windmills: 'I never understood wind' r/politics

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Tulsi Gabbard’s cowardly impeachment vote was the ultimate betrayal — and not just to Democrats

Westlake Legal Group OL_39Dvd6iUtkRVh9L6750rGW8S6MDVvgKtrhtvZIyA Tulsi Gabbard's cowardly impeachment vote was the ultimate betrayal — and not just to Democrats r/politics

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Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says

Westlake Legal Group w6hzwog6oWnaJZIEWdOowyHEgyQalYAkMHJ45FCGzhU Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says r/politics

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Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says

Westlake Legal Group w6hzwog6oWnaJZIEWdOowyHEgyQalYAkMHJ45FCGzhU Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says r/politics

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Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling – December 2019

Welcome to the r/politics polling discussion thread for the Democratic primary. The Iowa caucuses are now just over 40 days away, and it’s crunch time for all of the campaigns in advance of that crucial contest. Only 8 candidates qualified for the last debate (with Senator Kamala Harris having dropped out before the debate but after qualifying), and the DNC has recently raised its requirements further, to 225,000 unique donors and 5% national/7% statewide to qualify for the next debate. Thus far, only fmr. Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar have qualified, with the next possible candidates being businessman Andrew Yang and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer. Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg is also contesting the nomination, but has declined to take donor money (and, therefore, is ineligible for the DNC debates) or contest the first 4 nominating contests.

Below is a list of polls that have been released since the last megathread we did, showing where the candidates who qualified for the December poll stand. Please be mindful of following the rules of r/politics when participating.

Poll Date Type Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg Klobuchar Yang Steyer
Ipsos 12/19 National 18 15 10 4 5 1 2 2
NBC/WSJ 12/17 National 28 21 18 9 4 5 3 1
Yougov 12/17 National 29 19 17 7 4 4 3 2
Emerson College 12/17 National 32 25 12 8 3 2 6 2
Civiqs/ISU 12/16 Iowa 15 21 18 24 4 3 2
CNN 12/15 National 26 20 16 8 5 3 3 1
Quinnipiac 12/15 National 30 16 17 9 7 3 3 1
Morning Consult 12/15 National 31 22 15 8 7 2 4 3
Suffolk U. 12/14 National 23 14 13 8 6 3 2 1
IBD/TIPP 12/14 National 26 18 14 9 5 2 2 2
HarrisX 12/14 National 29 13 13 5 5 3 3 3
Echelon 12/14 National 37 14 14 6 6 2 2 1
Marist College 12/11 National 24 22 17 13 4 4 5
Fox News 12/11 National 30 20 13 7 5 5 3 1
Change 12/11 South Carolina 27 20 19 9 3 2 2 5
Change 12/10 California 19 26 23 12 3 1 4 2
Emerson College 12/10 Iowa 23 22 12 18 2 10 2 3
CNN 12/09 Texas 35 15 13 9 5 1 3 2
CNN 12/08 California 21 20 17 9 5 2 6 1
MassINC/UNH 12/08 New Hampshire 17 15 12 18 2 3 5 3
Marquette 12/08 Wisconsin 23 19 16 15 3 3 3
Zogby 12/08 National 30 20 16 7 8 2 4 3
Monmouth U. 12/08 National 26 21 17 8 5 4 3 1
Capitol Weekly 12/07 California 19 19 23 14 5 4 5 1
Yougov 12/02 South Carolina 39 13 10 10 2 2 3 7
David Binder 12/01 National 29 15 14 10 8 2 2 2
Data for Progress 11/25 Delaware 35 13 11 8 1 1 1
UC Berkeley 11/27 California 14 24 22 12 2 3 3 1
Victory Research 11/25 Illinois 23 15 17 16 4 3 1 2
RCP 11/21 National 30 23 12 6 2 1 4 2

A few tips when looking at polling:

  • All polling isn’t created equal. Some pollsters have distinct leans towards one candidate or another as a result of polling methodology that oversamples or undersamples certain demographics. A large distinction is online-only polls versus live caller vs robocalling polls. In other instances, some pollsters just consistently have poorer showings than others (the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings chart is a good approximation) and might warrant less weight.

  • Don’t compare apples to oranges. Polls generally should reach the same result, but sometimes there is a systemic undervaluation or overvaluation of one candidate or another. Trendlines between polling firms is not very useful. Trendlines within the same poll, however, might yield much more useful comparisons.

  • Polling goes stale quickly at this time of the year. As we approach the Iowa caucuses, the polling will likely start changing a lot, which may or may not shake up the race. A poll from the beginning of the month might no longer be instructive at this point in time, for instance. A rolling average of recent polls is a better estimate, and what outlets like 538 and RCP tend to do when they have enough polling to do so.

  • Keep in mind the sample size. This isn’t aimed at the toplines, but the cross-tabs that sometimes get published. These polls are often just 300-500 people nationally, meaning a subsample for a particular minority group or socioeconomic class can end up being just a few dozen responses, which often gets parsed for support for individual candidates. A trend across a number of polls is still significant, but individual polling in this case is less useful.

  • Polls are just polls. At the end of the day, polls don’t vote, people do. If your candidate is down, or if they’re doing well, the polls are only meant to be a reflection of what the pollster thinks the current electorate looks like. Don’t take that to mean your preferred candidate is done, or that they have a glide path to the nomination. What happens in the primary is a product of far more than just the polling being done.

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