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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "r/politics" (Page 99)

Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says

Westlake Legal Group w6hzwog6oWnaJZIEWdOowyHEgyQalYAkMHJ45FCGzhU Christianity Today receives boost in new subscriptions after calling for Trump’s removal, editor in chief says r/politics

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Discussion Thread: Democratic Presidential Primary Polling – December 2019

Welcome to the r/politics polling discussion thread for the Democratic primary. The Iowa caucuses are now just over 40 days away, and it’s crunch time for all of the campaigns in advance of that crucial contest. Only 8 candidates qualified for the last debate (with Senator Kamala Harris having dropped out before the debate but after qualifying), and the DNC has recently raised its requirements further, to 225,000 unique donors and 5% national/7% statewide to qualify for the next debate. Thus far, only fmr. Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar have qualified, with the next possible candidates being businessman Andrew Yang and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer. Former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg is also contesting the nomination, but has declined to take donor money (and, therefore, is ineligible for the DNC debates) or contest the first 4 nominating contests.

Below is a list of polls that have been released since the last megathread we did, showing where the candidates who qualified for the December poll stand. Please be mindful of following the rules of r/politics when participating.

Poll Date Type Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg Klobuchar Yang Steyer
Ipsos 12/19 National 18 15 10 4 5 1 2 2
NBC/WSJ 12/17 National 28 21 18 9 4 5 3 1
Yougov 12/17 National 29 19 17 7 4 4 3 2
Emerson College 12/17 National 32 25 12 8 3 2 6 2
Civiqs/ISU 12/16 Iowa 15 21 18 24 4 3 2
CNN 12/15 National 26 20 16 8 5 3 3 1
Quinnipiac 12/15 National 30 16 17 9 7 3 3 1
Morning Consult 12/15 National 31 22 15 8 7 2 4 3
Suffolk U. 12/14 National 23 14 13 8 6 3 2 1
IBD/TIPP 12/14 National 26 18 14 9 5 2 2 2
HarrisX 12/14 National 29 13 13 5 5 3 3 3
Echelon 12/14 National 37 14 14 6 6 2 2 1
Marist College 12/11 National 24 22 17 13 4 4 5
Fox News 12/11 National 30 20 13 7 5 5 3 1
Change 12/11 South Carolina 27 20 19 9 3 2 2 5
Change 12/10 California 19 26 23 12 3 1 4 2
Emerson College 12/10 Iowa 23 22 12 18 2 10 2 3
CNN 12/09 Texas 35 15 13 9 5 1 3 2
CNN 12/08 California 21 20 17 9 5 2 6 1
MassINC/UNH 12/08 New Hampshire 17 15 12 18 2 3 5 3
Marquette 12/08 Wisconsin 23 19 16 15 3 3 3
Zogby 12/08 National 30 20 16 7 8 2 4 3
Monmouth U. 12/08 National 26 21 17 8 5 4 3 1
Capitol Weekly 12/07 California 19 19 23 14 5 4 5 1
Yougov 12/02 South Carolina 39 13 10 10 2 2 3 7
David Binder 12/01 National 29 15 14 10 8 2 2 2
Data for Progress 11/25 Delaware 35 13 11 8 1 1 1
UC Berkeley 11/27 California 14 24 22 12 2 3 3 1
Victory Research 11/25 Illinois 23 15 17 16 4 3 1 2
RCP 11/21 National 30 23 12 6 2 1 4 2

A few tips when looking at polling:

  • All polling isn’t created equal. Some pollsters have distinct leans towards one candidate or another as a result of polling methodology that oversamples or undersamples certain demographics. A large distinction is online-only polls versus live caller vs robocalling polls. In other instances, some pollsters just consistently have poorer showings than others (the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings chart is a good approximation) and might warrant less weight.

  • Don’t compare apples to oranges. Polls generally should reach the same result, but sometimes there is a systemic undervaluation or overvaluation of one candidate or another. Trendlines between polling firms is not very useful. Trendlines within the same poll, however, might yield much more useful comparisons.

  • Polling goes stale quickly at this time of the year. As we approach the Iowa caucuses, the polling will likely start changing a lot, which may or may not shake up the race. A poll from the beginning of the month might no longer be instructive at this point in time, for instance. A rolling average of recent polls is a better estimate, and what outlets like 538 and RCP tend to do when they have enough polling to do so.

  • Keep in mind the sample size. This isn’t aimed at the toplines, but the cross-tabs that sometimes get published. These polls are often just 300-500 people nationally, meaning a subsample for a particular minority group or socioeconomic class can end up being just a few dozen responses, which often gets parsed for support for individual candidates. A trend across a number of polls is still significant, but individual polling in this case is less useful.

  • Polls are just polls. At the end of the day, polls don’t vote, people do. If your candidate is down, or if they’re doing well, the polls are only meant to be a reflection of what the pollster thinks the current electorate looks like. Don’t take that to mean your preferred candidate is done, or that they have a glide path to the nomination. What happens in the primary is a product of far more than just the polling being done.

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Doug Jones Says He’s Not Worried About Losing His Seat If He Votes To Convict Trump

Westlake Legal Group mr9DEZvDk9js94CtjGpQtKdUw0WeH1eYhwWT36xJKCM Doug Jones Says He’s Not Worried About Losing His Seat If He Votes To Convict Trump r/politics

Thats the right attitude

You do whats right, and if it costs you your seat, so be it.

People treat being a Politician as a career, which is 100% wrong, its a Civic Duty, and sometimes you have to make tough decisions.

Gabbard voting “Present” was the most cowardly shit ive ever seen in my lifetime. If you dont think Trump should be Impeached, fine, i think youre a fucking idiot and should have your head examined, but fine, you have your convictions and good for you for sticking to them(as far as that goes), but voting “Present”? Wtf even is that? “Im not taking a stand one way or the other” is in itself a choice, people didn’t send you to Represent them and then remain silent, thats not Representation.

Barbra Lee is an example of Courage, she was the sole vote against the AUMF (the bill that Authorized Military Force in Afghanistan) 2 or 3 days after 9/11, she said “Fuck Reelection, this is wrong” and she voted her heart and conscious.

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Durbin: Senators have ‘gone too far’ in saying how they will vote before impeachment trial has begun

Westlake Legal Group vFGhTTAt5iaKdXip3Vf67AkxKTBCUMD1YBIWSImTqXI Durbin: Senators have 'gone too far' in saying how they will vote before impeachment trial has begun r/politics

Actually talked to my father on this point earlier today. I said, “Regardless of how you feel on the impeachment, you have to admit that having a judge who has already made up their mind prior to the trial is wrong.”

After trying to say he’s given more thought on the impeachment this morning than he has in the past several weeks, etc. and me reiterating “regardless of your thoughts on the impeachment,” he finally said, “They’re human. No one can be unbiased, and at least they’re honest enough to admit it.”

So… There’s that perspective.

(By the way, this is part of a longer conversation where he asserted politics are black-and-white, and that Democrats are wrong and Republicans are right, hence why I asked if this, along with foreign interference, were right.)

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GOP Congressman Says Trump’s Indifference to Russia’s Meddling Into U.S. Elections a ‘Huge Problem’

Westlake Legal Group y7bkJFI6IKr8bcWNcebYs4HK_y3qn0kSvDoUJbQFDQQ GOP Congressman Says Trump's Indifference to Russia's Meddling Into U.S. Elections a 'Huge Problem' r/politics

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Kentucky will accept refugees, governor tells Trump administration

Westlake Legal Group U3EPxWnrMBDm0Dbw3xtF2kWTr-gyDkAkSy1biHlWIrU Kentucky will accept refugees, governor tells Trump administration r/politics

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Witnesses ‘Must Testify’ At Impeachment Trial, Declares GOP Group. ‘Call Your Senators.’

Westlake Legal Group JOsrPlfySZmFDFHLUVMqEpNp1acuFYUsoDH0nvETDdQ Witnesses ‘Must Testify’ At Impeachment Trial, Declares GOP Group. ‘Call Your Senators.’ r/politics

Let’s take a moment to recall all the arguments we heard:

“Impeachment will fail so why even try”

“Okay he’s impeached, but nothing’s changed”

“This will be a victory for Trump”

And so forth. We’ve already seen big effects, that this was clearly the right thing to do.

It’s also interesting how Democrats previously voted against impeachment, disproving the claim that they were ‘out to get him’ (heard this in the hearings, I forgot who pointed it out, but it was a brilliant point).

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National Review Senior Editor Calls for Trump’s Removal from Office

Westlake Legal Group bHhZ4ZkA08aOlg0oWBmG_5xCJhPrrfrCJckrrElxJI0 National Review Senior Editor Calls for Trump’s Removal from Office r/politics

“…conservative intellectual commentary…”

Not that I’m sure this existed in the past with the GOP, it sure as hell does not exist in the modern Trump led GOP.

All they do is spew conspiracy theories, Russian propaganda, and nonsense. If they aren’t doing that they are speaking to induce hate or fear of the other. Usually they are doing so in conjunction.

I just hope the public gets out in numbers to counter any cheating the GOP are going to pull to try and steal the 2020 elections.

Remember to get out and vote (I know it’s said ad nauseam). Remember to bring friends, vote on primaries, vote in local elections, and help a campaign (preferably Bernie’s) if you can.

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Former Trump Official Anthony Scaramucci Names Four Witnesses Whose Senate Testimony Would Force President To Resign

Westlake Legal Group KpUOjYjifOZmTjsNB1g5n2gDK-uAYOgUEsDm8zsosno Former Trump Official Anthony Scaramucci Names Four Witnesses Whose Senate Testimony Would Force President To Resign r/politics

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Former Trump Official Anthony Scaramucci Names Four Witnesses Whose Senate Testimony Would Force President To Resign

Westlake Legal Group KpUOjYjifOZmTjsNB1g5n2gDK-uAYOgUEsDm8zsosno Former Trump Official Anthony Scaramucci Names Four Witnesses Whose Senate Testimony Would Force President To Resign r/politics

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