web analytics
a

Facebook

Twitter

Copyright 2015 Libero Themes.
All Rights Reserved.

8:30 - 6:00

Our Office Hours Mon. - Fri.

703-406-7616

Call For Free 15/M Consultation

Facebook

Twitter

Search
Menu
Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "suppression"

ABC: Trump’s own internal polling in March showed him trailing far behind Biden in battleground states

Westlake Legal Group t-4 ABC: Trump’s own internal polling in March showed him trailing far behind Biden in battleground states Trump The Blog swing state suppression romney polls Obama Michigan internal biden

It makes me laugh how sensitive people get about bad polling this far out, and by “people” I mean you-know-who. A few days ago the Times reported that “After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania.” He didn’t like that:

At first glance, by “Suppression Polls” I thought he meant that the media was trying to suppress his turnout by publishing discouraging information — 17 months before Election Day, when there’ll be literally thousands of domestic and foreign developments between now and then that ultimately determine how people vote. That would be inane. But no, what he meant (I think?) is that the press has the “real” polls and is suppressing them in order to … make him feel bad, I guess? I don’t know. If you’re going to invent a narrative, “Tight race between Trump and Biden in battlegrounds” sounds juicier than “Biden leading Trump by margins that’ll never, ever hold up in reality.”

But Trump has been consistent about this. From the first few weeks of his administration, any news that might reflect badly on him is necessarily “fake news.” And that definitely includes polling.

The wrinkle in this new ABC report is that his own campaign manager has confirmed that these polls are real — or were. They’re now outdated, says Brad Parscale. And wouldn’t you know it, he says that in the latest internal polling Trump has zoomed ahead.

The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points…

“These leaked numbers are ancient, in campaign terms, from months-old polling that began in March before two major events had occurred: the release of the summary of the Mueller report exonerating the President, and the beginning of the Democrat candidates defining themselves with their far-left policy message,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News in a statement. “Since then, we have seen huge swings in the President’s favor across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies now espoused by the Democrats. For example, the plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.”

Attorney General Bill Barr’s summary of special counsel Robert Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election was released on March 24. While the Trump campaign’s full poll, which canvassed 17 states, was already in the field, it was well underway for four additional days after the release of Barr’s letter to the public.

Recently, said Parscale, the campaign has begun to conduct polling keyed to specific issues that Democrats are running on and those polls are much more encouraging, with Trump allegedly leading in Florida by eight points. (Spoiler: He will not win Florida by anything like eight points, just like Biden won’t win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin by double digits.) The trouble with his broader argument, that the March data is outdated because it doesn’t include voter reaction to Mueller clearing Trump of collusion, is that there have been lots of public polls since then showing that Mueller’s conclusions didn’t move the needle much for Trump. His average job approval on March 24 was 43.1; today it’s 44.1. That’s a good number for him and shows promise, but a one-point average gain isn’t going to completely turn around a race like the Pennsylvania one where Biden is supposedly up by 15.

Plus, Parscale neglects to mention that Biden got a big bounce when he finally entered the race in late April, a month after the internal poll described above was completed. He went from 30 percent or so in the Democratic primary average all the way up to 41 percent before cooling off and returning to the 32.3 percent support he currently enjoys. It’s highly unlikely that Biden’s announcement triggered rising support for him in various public polls and distinguished him as the clear frontrunner in the Democratic field and yet, simultaneously, saw him tank against Trump in various battleground states where he had been leading big. Even Parscale’s point about polling on the issues doesn’t really add up for Biden. It may be that some of Bernie Sanders’s more wild-eyed plans poll poorly when tested, but Biden’s guaranteed to embrace a more moderate agenda if he’s the nominee. If it’s true that even Biden’s platform is toxic to American voters than what Parscale means to say is that no Democrat can win. Trump’s victory is assured. No one believes that.

Here’s a more convincing explanation for why this internal poll can be safely regarded, from the pollster himself:

That would explain the ludicrous 16-point Biden lead Fabrizio found in Pennsylvania. But this too comes with a grain of salt: Per the Times excerpt up top, Trump instructed his aides to simply lie about the results when asked. Would Fabrizio tell us the truth about the results if they were unflattering to POTUS, knowing his job might be on the line if he did? And what does he mean specifically when he mentions that Democrats were “defined”? Defined how? If he asked voters, “Do you prefer Donald Trump or Joe Biden, who’s a plagiarist, a China dove, and a cuck?”, he might indeed have seen more voters favor Trump. But that wouldn’t be a very useful poll.

Anyway. The proper response to bad early internal polls is not to make up some nonsense about how they’ve completely turned around in the span of 10 weeks, it’s to point to the track record of polling this early and say, “Who cares?” The early general-election polls tell us nothing. They’re fun for bloggy water-cooler conversation but they’re nothing to worry about yet, let alone lie about.

In the runup to the 2016 presidential election, this same question came up, and FiveThirtyEight analyzed general election polls from 1944 to 2012 that tested the eventual nominees and were conducted in the last two months of the year before the election (so for 2012, that would be November and December of 2011). On average, these polls missed the final result by 11 percentage points.

Jump back to roughly this point in the 2016 cycle, for example, and Clinton was ahead of all eight of her hypothetical GOP opponents in a May 2015 Quinnipiac poll, with a whopping 50-32 advantage over Trump.

It’s especially foolish to invest in early general-election polls this year when Democrats are split not just among candidates but among ideologies. Is Trump going to face Obama’s VP or an avowed socialist? That’ll matter in swing states, a lot. And yet it’s a complete mystery and will remain so for months.

There’s no reason to sweat the numbers now but there’s no reason to be in denial about them either. Lots of public polling shows that Trump has work to do in battleground states, with the most recent survey dropping just this afternoon. He has a good economic argument for reelection. That may be all he needs.

The post ABC: Trump’s own internal polling in March showed him trailing far behind Biden in battleground states appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group t-4-300x153 ABC: Trump’s own internal polling in March showed him trailing far behind Biden in battleground states Trump The Blog swing state suppression romney polls Obama Michigan internal biden   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Stacey Abrams: If we don’t secure our democracy in 2020, we might be speaking Russian in 2030

Westlake Legal Group stacey-abrams-if-we-dont-secure-our-democracy-in-2020-we-might-be-speaking-russian-in-2030 Stacey Abrams: If we don’t secure our democracy in 2020, we might be speaking Russian in 2030 voter Trump The Blog suppression Stacey Abrams russian putin democracy 2030 2020

Westlake Legal Group sa Stacey Abrams: If we don’t secure our democracy in 2020, we might be speaking Russian in 2030 voter Trump The Blog suppression Stacey Abrams russian putin democracy 2030 2020

I’ve looked around for video of this with no luck but it must be that she was making a grim joke at Trump’s expense, a deliberately absurd exaggeration to emphasize a point. I … think?

Granted, the left seems willing to entertain any scenario when it comes to alleged collusion between Trump and Russia, up to and including that Moscow changed the vote totals in 2016. A Gallup poll taken last summer found that 78 percent of Democrats believed that Russian interference was decisive in 2016 — not just that it happened but that the Kremlin’s activities changed the outcome from a Clinton win to a Trump win. A YouGov poll taken last fall during the week of the midterms found that two-thirds of Democrats believe it’s “definitely” or “probably” true that Russia tampered with vote tallies to get Trump elected, a claim which even Barack Obama has debunked as lacking evidence. “We might actually be speaking Russian 10 years from now” feels like it could potentially show up in the D-bloc of Rachel Maddow’s show on an especially slow news night. It’s comically outlandish, but the Resistance often is.

And granted, Abrams’s endless insistence that she’s the true winner of the Georgia gubernatorial race long ago proved that she’s willing to embrace crankery if only for reasons of political expedience. Case in point, the fact that Bob Mueller found insufficient evidence to charge Trump with conspiracy didn’t deter her from keeping collusion hopes alive a few weeks ago either:

She’s a Yale-trained lawyer. She understands that Mueller didn’t exonerate Trump on obstruction but did basically exonerate him on collusion, and yet her statement conflates the two issues. She also understands why the full report can’t be released to the public, yet there she was insisting that it must be. So, yeah, it’s possible that Abrams wasn’t joking about speaking Russian in 2030. That doesn’t mean she believes it, just that she knows what her audience wants to hear and is willing to deliver it to them, like any successful politician.

Relatively successful, I mean. She hasn’t won statewide office yet, nor federal office. But the progressives and data nerds who make frequent cameos in my Twitter timeline treat the prospect of another Abrams candidacy the way baseball fans treated Bryce Harper’s call-up to the majors in 2012. We are in the presence of a star with no ceiling, at whose feet history lies whimpering. (Would’ve been true in Mike Trout’s case, actually.) That’s amazing hype for someone who’s never won an election beyond the level of George state representative, but between her SOTU rebuttal, her new status as the left’s most prominent advocate against voter suppression, and the fact that she’s the only would-be 2020 candidate besides Kamala Harris who’s actually part of the women and nonwhite constituencies on whom Dems depend, she’s essentially sacrosanct. If there’s a Democratic politician in the U.S. of any prominence who hasn’t endorsed the theory that Abrams “really” won the Georgia election, I’m unaware of them. How the hell is the competition going to attack her if she jumps into the presidential race?

I think she’s going to do it. She made her Russia “joke” at one foreign-policy forum in D.C. today before heading out to another foreign-policy forum. That’s the sort of event you do if you’re looking to build credibility as a would-be commander-in-chief, not if you’re narrowly focused on voting rights. She confirmed yesterday that she’s still thinking about getting in, then dropped the following comment at one of the foreign-policy events today. If she doesn’t run for president now and ends up losing a second bid at governor in 2022, she’s probably finished as a political force. Why wouldn’t she run?

The post Stacey Abrams: If we don’t secure our democracy in 2020, we might be speaking Russian in 2030 appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group sa-300x153 Stacey Abrams: If we don’t secure our democracy in 2020, we might be speaking Russian in 2030 voter Trump The Blog suppression Stacey Abrams russian putin democracy 2030 2020   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

A new twist on the Bob Kraft hooker video

Westlake Legal Group BobKraft A new twist on the Bob Kraft hooker video Video The Blog suppression Robert Kraft prostitution new england patriots hookers Florida

Last week we looked at the efforts by New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft’s attorneys to suppress the release of a video allegedly showing him “engaged” with a prostitute and giving her cash. While Kraft’s legal team seemed to be making some solid arguments about why giving the video to the press could poison his case, Florida’s “sunshine law” seemed to make it clear that the video would have to be made public unless the state legislature ruled otherwise. A judge put the matter on hold until he could rule on the matter.

Turns out that Team Kraft has some pretty sharp legal experts on the payroll. Despite what the sunshine law appears to dictate, prosecutors have been told to keep the happy ending film under wraps for now, and possibly until the trial is done. (Boston Globe)

A Florida judge has ordered that a video police say shows New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft paying for sex not be publicly released for now.

Palm Beach County Judge Leonard Hanser accepted arguments by Kraft’s attorneys that releasing the video could harm chances for a fair trial on misdemeanor prostitution charges, and ruled Tuesday that it shouldn’t be handed to the media as a public record until a jury is seated, a plea agreement is reached or the state drops the case…

Also on Tuesday, a circuit court judge ruled that attorneys for Orchids of Asia owner Hua Zhang and therapist Lei Wang can subpoena TheBlast.com in an effort to determine who tried to sell it a video of Kraft paying for sex at the massage parlor.

Not all of the credit (?) here goes to Kraft’s attorneys. This case is turning into a mess on a number of levels. (More on that in a moment.) But the point being made by Kraft is that putting the video out in public prior to the trial would poison the jury pool and leave him unable to receive a fair trial. Depending on what exactly was captured on camera and the context of the encounter, that’s probably true. But what does this mean for the future of Florida’s sunshine law? If a judge can order an exception in one case, anyone who might be damaged by having any records made public can request the same treatment.

Getting back to the problems the prosecutors now have, this entire case is turning into a dumpster fire. It seems that the original warrant allowing cameras to be installed at the spa is being challenged on multiple fronts. First of all, the reason given was the suspicion of human trafficking. Apparently, there was no trafficking discovered, calling the basis for the original warrant into question. (That’s another line of attack Kraft’s lawyers have been taking as well.)

On top of that, the video allegedly captured more than a dozen other people who were naked and getting a legitimate massage (not a happy ending) and seventeen of them have filed suit to have the videos locked down and eventually destroyed. They are also suing for unspecified damages and it sounds like they have a strong case.

So this video is under attack from all angles. And if the warrant for the cameras is found to be flawed, prosecutors will lose their most powerful piece of evidence. In that case, it will be the prosecutors who are left holding the bag and Kraft could still wind up walking away from this scot-free. Or, at most, the trafficking charges seem to be off the table and the only thing they could tag him with is solicitation, and they probably wouldn’t have any witnesses to testify to that.

The post A new twist on the Bob Kraft hooker video appeared first on Hot Air.

Westlake Legal Group BobKraft-300x153 A new twist on the Bob Kraft hooker video Video The Blog suppression Robert Kraft prostitution new england patriots hookers Florida   Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com