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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Trump, Donald J" (Page 129)

As Trade War With U.S. Grinds On, Chinese Tourists Stay Away

A new battlefront has opened in the trade war between the United States and China: the $1.6 trillion American travel industry.

A Los Angeles hotel long popular with Chinese travelers saw a 23 percent decline in visits last year and another 10 percent so far this year. In New York City, spending by Chinese tourists, who spend nearly twice as much as other foreign visitors, fell 12 percent in the first quarter. And in San Francisco, busloads of Chinese tourists were once a mainstay of one fine jewelry business; over the last few years, the buses stopped coming.

Figures from the Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office show a sharp decline in the number of tourists from China last year.

Industry professionals worry that the drop-off is picking up speed this year, affecting not just airlines, hotels and restaurants, but also retailers and attractions like amusement parks and casinos.

Tori Barnes, executive vice president for public affairs and policy at the U.S. Travel Association, a trade group, said the Chinese were especially valuable because they were spending an average of $6,700 during their stays — 50 percent more than other international visitors.

“International travelers actually help reduce the trade deficit,” Ms. Barnes said. “There isn’t as much thought given to the services industry being an export,” but, she added, it is a significant one.

According to data from the National Travel and Tourism Office, 2.9 million Chinese travelers visited the United States in 2018, down from 3.2 million in 2017.

This year’s rate is probably even lower, said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a consulting company. “It’s not getting better in 2019,” he said. “The risk is that it gets worse.

Mr. Sacks added: “If you look at the previous decade, Chinese travel increased at an annual average growth rate of 23 percent. Then it stops on a dime and begins to retrench in 2018.”

He pointed to what he described as “case study of this happening in the past, where China has essentially weaponized tourism.” In 2017, Chinese travel to South Korea fell by nearly 50 percent, he said, after South Korea deployed a missile defense system that China said could be used to spy on its territory.

That example was cited in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report last week in estimating a “worst-case scenario” of as much as a 50 percent decline in Chinese travel to the United States. Its analysts said that could mean a $18 billion hit to the American travel industry.

The decline in Chinese tourism may be tied, in part, to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has left consumers with less money for discretionary spending. But travel industry professionals, international trade experts and economists say the bigger factor is the trade war and the inflammatory rhetoric associated with it. They say Beijing may see its sizable population of global travelers as a cudgel in its battle with the United States.

“That is a real threat to the U.S., if the Chinese run out of options,” said Jan Freitag, senior vice president at travel research and data firm STR. “China has only so many things they can put a tariff on. The one thing where they have leverage is tourism outbound.”

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_155993478_c02d6c8f-f0e6-472f-b4d6-88a2a3bb41df-articleLarge As Trade War With U.S. Grinds On, Chinese Tourists Stay Away United States Travel Assn Trump, Donald J Travel and Vacations Politics and Government NYC&CO International Trade and World Market Hotels and Travel Lodgings Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Amusement and Theme Parks

Chinese visitors at Facebook’s headquarters in 2016. This month, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued an advisory about travel to the United States.CreditLaura Morton for The New York Times

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Beijing’s tight grip on domestic media also gave it a pronounced advantage. “You have a political climate in China where the government-led press has clearly been hammering this issue,” he said.

Michael O. Moore, professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University, agreed. “That is potentially an enormous advantage in a conflict if you can control the message, without question,” he said. “There’s an increasingly patriotic spin to everything and the U.S. is portrayed in a negative light, and that can play a role in people’s decisions.”

On June 4, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued an advisory about travel to the United States, saying its citizens have been interrogated, interviewed and subjected to other forms of what it called harassment by American law enforcement agencies. A day earlier, its Ministry of Education warned students bound for the United States that they risked visa delays or other potential disruptions, after the State Department began requiring most visa applicants to provide the agency with detailed information about their past five years of social media use.

“Announcements such as this can have a chilling effect,” Roger Dow, the president and chief executive of the U.S. Travel Association, said after the Chinese actions. “We continue to urge both governments not to politicize travel.”

Big gateway cities in the United States benefited the most from the rise in Chinese tourism and are on the front lines of the fall. “For right now we’re holding to our 2018 numbers, but we are starting to see some indicators that are starting to show some softening in the first quarter,” said Christopher Heywood, executive vice president of global communications for NYC & Company, the city’s tourism marketing organization.

The trade war and visa issues “are concerning to us,” he said. “All of the hurdles could translate into unintended consequences.”

Mr. Heywood said Chinese tourists in New York City spend roughly $3,000 per person in the five boroughs, nearly twice what other foreign visitors spend.

Hotels are also caught in the crossfire. Mark D. Davis, president and chief executive of Sun Hill Properties, which owns the Hilton Los Angeles/Universal City, a popular destination for Chinese tourists, said that business had been improving through 2017 but fell last year and was weakening further so far this year.

“The general messaging from the U.S. has been a little unfriendly at times,” Mr. Davis said. “The posturing, I think, has people worried.”

Even businesses that are more peripheral to tourism have seen sales to Chinese visitors dwindle. After the recession left the American dollar battered and the country a relative bargain for overseas tourists, the United States was an attractive destination for the Chinese.

“It sort of started in 2009 for us. We started to do some Chinese tourism business and it really just started to take off,” said Lane Schiffman, co-owner of Shreve & Company, a fine jewelry retailer with stores in San Francisco and Palo Alto, Calif. “They were this incredible wave.”

As recently as a few years ago, charter buses booked by Chinese tour groups regularly delivered 20 to 30 passengers to his San Francisco shop, Mr. Schiffman said. But the buses have vanished.

“The wave crested,” he said. “It’s just not a big part of our business now. We’re not seeing them on the street like we used to.”

Mr. Schiffman said his stores were thriving thanks to the booming Bay Area and Silicon Valley economy, but he estimated that his overall international tourist business fell to 10 percent from 30 percent over the past few years.

“It seemed like maybe the Chinese government put pressure on people not to buy so much outside of China,” Mr. Schiffman said. “It’s kind of like they turned the faucet off.”

Real Estate, and Personal Injury Lawyers. Contact us at: https://westlakelegal.com 

Trump and Biden Get Personal in Iowa Skirmish

DAVENPORT, Iowa — President Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. repeatedly ripped into each other on Tuesday as unfit to lead the country as they both traveled to the battleground state of Iowa, giving voters a preview of what a general election matchup between the two men might look like.

In the most ferocious day of attacks in the six-month-old presidential campaign, Mr. Trump resorted to taunts and name-calling over several hours, saying Mr. Biden was “a loser,” “a sleepy guy” and “the weakest mentally,” and claiming that “people don’t respect him.” Mr. Biden took a different tack, laying out ways Mr. Trump was “an existential threat” to the country, its international standing and its values.

Mr. Biden, who leads in early polls for the Democratic presidential nomination, also brought up subjects he had previously avoided with reporters, such as Mr. Trump siding with the North Korean state media’s insults on Mr. Biden’s I.Q.

”He embraces dictators like Kim Jong-un, who’s a damn murderer and a thug?” Mr. Biden said at his second event of the day, in Mount Pleasant, Iowa. “The one thing they agree on: Joe Biden, he shouldn’t be president.”

The hostile exchanges, which went back and forth across multiple Iowa campaign stops, were the clearest evidence yet that the two men see political advantages in waging a battle against one another at this early stage of the race.

Mr. Biden has largely ignored his 22 Democratic rivals while building his campaign around the urgent need to oust Mr. Trump. Rather than get drawn into squabbles with more liberal candidates or lesser-known ones, he is trying to present himself as presidential material and the most electable Democrat against Mr. Trump — particularly in swing states like Iowa, where the president trounced Hillary Clinton in 2016 after Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012.

Mr. Trump, mindful of polling that shows him trailing Mr. Biden in several key states, has targeted him with ridicule lately, far more than he has the other Democratic candidates. While the 2020 general election campaign is still a year away, Mr. Trump is repurposing some of his most effective ad hominem attacks from the last election.

In his remarks at an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs, for instance, Mr. Trump claimed that Mr. Biden’s only message was to criticize him, and then brought up his oft-repeated insult for his 2016 opponent, Mrs. Clinton.

“That reminds me of Crooked Hillary,” Mr. Trump said, earning chuckles from the audience. “She did the same thing. And then when it came time to vote, they all said, ‘You know, she doesn’t like Trump very much, but what does she stand for?’ Same thing is happening with Sleepy Joe.”

While they have attacked each other from a distance, their appearances in the same state on Tuesday seemed primed to intensify the hostility. Mr. Biden wasted no time trying to frame the debate, releasing excerpts at 6 a.m. Tuesday from the remarks he had prepared to deliver at a speech in Davenport in the evening.

Throughout the day, Mr. Biden laced into Mr. Trump over a range of policy issues, such as pursuing an “erratic war on trade” and his approach to tariff negotiations, as farmers — including in this heavily agricultural state — have struggled.

Video

Westlake Legal Group 11bidentrump-videoSixteenByNine3000 Trump and Biden Get Personal in Iowa Skirmish Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Prior to leaving for Iowa, President Trump told reporters that he would prefer to run against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020.CreditCreditDoug Mills/The New York Times

But the sharpest part of Mr. Biden’s remarks in Davenport was his argument that, while the nation “can overcome four years of this presidency,” Mr. Trump would pose an existential threat to “the character of this nation” if he were re-elected and served another term.

He portrayed Mr. Trump’s words and actions as antithetical to the nation’s “core values — what we stand for, who we are, what we believe in,” citing the president’s child separation policy at the southern border and referencing his remark that there were “very fine people on both sides” of the white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Va.

Mr. Biden also argued that Mr. Trump was a threat to “our standing in the world,” noting that the president has attacked NATO while embracing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and saying he had shown poor character by using “crude language” and “embarrassing behavior that is burrowing deep into our culture.” And he said Mr. Trump was undermining American democracy by criticizing law enforcement agencies, defying the authority of Congress and using phrases like “enemy of the people” to describe a free press.

“In 2020, we not only have to repudiate Donald Trump’s policies and values — we have to clearly and fully reject, for our own safety’s sake, his view of the presidency,” Mr. Biden said. “Quote: ‘I have complete power.’ No you don’t, Donald Trump.”

“‘Only I can fix it.’ Fix yourself first,” Mr. Biden said as the crowd enthusiastically drowned him out.

The early excerpts from Mr. Biden’s remarks received prominent attention in the news media on Tuesday morning. Mr. Trump, as he departed the Oval Office, told reporters that he thought Mr. Biden was “a loser” and questioned his mental fitness.

“I’d rather run against, I think, Biden than anybody,” he said. “I think he’s the weakest mentally, and I like running against people that are weak mentally. I think Joe is the weakest up here. The other ones have much more energy.”

After arriving in Council Bluffs, Mr. Trump hinted that he was waiting until his kickoff rally on June 18 in Orlando for his official “political season” to begin. But he couldn’t help but take glancing blows at Mr. Biden in between touting the low unemployment rate and the boom in blue-collar jobs. “He was someplace in Iowa today and he said my name so many times that people couldn’t stand it anymore,” Mr. Trump said. “‘No, don’t keep saying it.’ Sleepy guy.”

Later, Mr. Trump noted that America “would never be treated with respect” under Mr. Biden’s leadership, “because people don’t respect him.”

The attacks by Mr. Trump were, in one way, a boost for Mr. Biden after days of Democratic criticism over his shifting stances on federal funding for abortion. On Tuesday, there was wall-to-wall cable news coverage of the Trump-Biden feud, not of abortion.

Mr. Biden, responding to reporters’ questions in Iowa after Mr. Trump’s attacks, laughed off the president’s remarks about his stamina and mental fitness, and repeated his past statements that voters have a right to question all of the candidates’ ages.

“Look at him and look at me and answer the question,” Mr. Biden said, when one reporter raised those comments. “It’s self-evident, you know it’s a ridiculous assertion on his part.”

Video

Westlake Legal Group 25bidenrunsHFO1-videoSixteenByNine3000 Trump and Biden Get Personal in Iowa Skirmish Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a two-term vice president and spent 36 years as a senator. But his front-runner status in the Democratic primary will be tested by the party’s desire for generational change.CreditCreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

Pressed specifically on Mr. Trump’s remark that Mr. Biden is “weak mentally,” the former vice president laughed.

“I’m not going to stoop down to where he is,” he said.

Mr. Biden’s face-off against Mr. Trump on Tuesday could have downsides, some Democratic strategists cautioned.

“The Biden campaign clearly seems to relish sparring with Trump. In their minds, they believe it elevates him above the rest of the Democratic field,” said Brian Fallon, who served as press secretary for Mrs. Clinton’s 2016 campaign. “The potential downside is that, as Trump road tests different attacks on Biden, it may help the Democratic primary electorate better visualize potential vulnerabilities that Biden would have in a general election.”

Mr. Fallon said that if any of those attacks — from his supposed lack of energy to his support for the 1994 crime bill — changed voter perceptions, “that could erode the aura of electability that is right now Biden’s strongest asset.”

On Tuesday night, Mr. Trump skipped over Mr. Biden and focused on painting top Democrats as socialists. In a red-meat speech to a red-cap-wearing crowd of 700 Iowa Republicans in West Des Moines, Mr. Trump argued, without evidence, that the United States could tumble into a state of decline like Venezuela under the wrong leadership. He notably name-checked Senator Bernie Sanders, who is set to give a speech on democratic socialism on Wednesday.

“More than 100 Democrats have signed up for the Bernie Sanders government takeover of health care,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Sanders’s “Medicare for all” plan. “We have 180 million Americans having great private health care. That would all be taken away. Democrats also support the $100 trillion Green New Deal, how about that beauty.” Making an oblique reference to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mr. Trump said the bill was “made up by a young woman, who is, well, let’s see how she works out.”

Public and private polls that show Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden in critical states have contributed to his preoccupation with Mr. Biden, whom the president has told aides to describe as old and feeble (Mr. Biden is 76; Mr. Trump will turn 73 this week).

Up to this point, Mr. Biden has largely resisted responding to Mr. Trump’s individual broadsides, insisting repeatedly that he wants to avoid a “mud-wrestling match” with the president and often ignoring shouted questions from reporters about Mr. Trump’s remarks.

But that hardly means Mr. Biden avoids discussing Mr. Trump. He is centering his campaign squarely on defeating the president, calling him an “aberration.” It is a point of emphasis sharply at odds with several of his Democratic opponents, who believe Trumpism has redefined the Republican Party and say the country needs bigger, structural change that goes beyond defeating one man.

At every turn, Mr. Biden is seeking to keep the focus on a possible general election matchup between himself and Mr. Trump. He has recently visited Pennsylvania and Ohio, important general election swing states, arguing that he is able to connect in the industrial Midwest and torching Mr. Trump’s leadership approach.

While many of the voters who filed into his Ottumwa event shared Mr. Biden’s near-single-minded focus on Mr. Trump, praising Mr. Biden as someone who could appeal to moderates and independents, Cheri Scherr, 63, said she had hoped to hear “more about his ideas.”

“I wish he would talk less about Trump,” said Ms. Scherr, of Pella, Iowa. “We’re Democrats, we know why we don’t like Trump.”

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Trump Brags About Mexico Deal, but Reveals No Details

Westlake Legal Group 11dc-immig-facebookJumbo Trump Brags About Mexico Deal, but Reveals No Details Trump, Donald J Immigration and Emigration Ebrard, Marcelo

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Tuesday waved a piece of paper that he said was part of a “very long and very good” secret agreement with Mexico, refusing to describe it but vowing that it will go into effect whenever he wants it to.

The president’s dramatic flourish, delivered as he left the White House for a trip to Iowa, came a day after Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico’s foreign minister, publicly denied that his country had reached an undisclosed immigration agreement with the United States.

Also Tuesday, Mr. Ebrard again said that there was no additional deal beyond what both governments had announced on Friday. “We don’t have anything to hide,” he said.

Reading from a letter that he had sent to the Mexican Senate, Mr. Ebrard gave a detailed account of the negotiations between the Mexican and United States governments, emphasizing how American officials had repeatedly insisted that Mexico sign an agreement that would require migrants traveling through Mexico to seek asylum there rather than in the United States — an agreement known as “safe third country.”

Instead, Mexico negotiated a 45-day window to show that its own measures to stem the flow of migrants would work. If they do not, Mr. Ebrard said, then the two sides agreed to an additional 45-day period to discuss a bilateral or regional agreement to return migrants.

The letter to the Mexican Senate suggested that the Mexicans had agreed that should the current measures fail to reduce migration, they would enter into negotiations about alternative solutions that would, at a minimum, require Mexico to assume more of the burden of asylum seekers heading toward the United States.

“Instead of accepting a safe third country agreement as the United States proposed, or the beginning of a trade war,” Mr. Ebrard’s letter said, “we managed to get a period of 45 days to demonstrate the efficiency of the measures that will be adopted and prepare ourselves as best we can for the negotiation that could follow in the next 45 days.”

Mr. Ebrard had given a similar explanation of the agreement on Monday, but said on Tuesday that he was taking the unusual step of making his letter public to be as transparent as possible.

For the second day in a row, Mr. Trump ignored Mr. Ebrard’s denial, insisting that his threat to impose tariffs on Mexican goods had forced Mexico to submit to an undisclosed agreement to combat what he views as an invasion from Central American migrants.

Asked by reporters to reveal what the agreement requires Mexico to do, Mr. Trump refused to do so, adding that “the reason is Mexico wants to handle that.”

A close-up photograph taken by a Washington Post reporter of the paper that Mr. Trump waved shows what appears to be a one-page letter signed on June 7 by two people whose names are unclear.

The final paragraph of the letter seems to refer to the agreement announced on Friday, called a “joint declaration,” and describes what will happen if the United States is not satisfied that the flow of migration to the southwestern border has slowed sufficiently.

“If the United States determines at its discretion and after consultation with Mexico, after 45 calendar days from the date of the issuance of the Joint Declaration, that the measures adopted by the Government of Mexico pursuant to the Joint Declaration have not sufficiently achieved results in addressing the flow of migrants to the southern border of the United States, the Government of Mexico will take all necessary steps under domestic law to bring the agreement into force with a view to ensuring that the agreement will enter into force within 45 days,” the letter says.

The president offered a series of confusing and contradictory statements, saying repeatedly that Mexico would have to submit the agreement to “their congress” while simultaneously saying that he has the power to impose it unilaterally if he wants to.

“If they bring the numbers way down, we won’t have to, but this is my option,” Mr. Trump said. “It goes into effect when I want it to, but I have a lot of respect for the president of Mexico. I have a lot of respect for the people we dealt with, so I don’t want to do that, and they have to go back to congress to get that approved.”

Moments later, he said that “it will go into effect when Mexico tells me it’s O.K. to release it.”

Mr. Trump and his aides have repeatedly referred to a “secret agreement” since Sunday morning when he first said on Twitter that a yet-to-be-revealed deal was reached with Mexico and would be “announced at the appropriate time.”

Since then, aides have refused to elaborate, saying that it was up to the president to decide whether to say more about it.

Because of Mr. Trump’s mention of approval by Mexico’s congress, Mexican officials and others have said they believe the president is referring to discussions about changes to the region’s asylum rules, which Mexico has said it would consider if the flow of migrants to the United States is not reduced over the next several months.

But Mr. Ebrard insisted on Monday that such a deal has not been reached with the United States, saying only that the two sides have agreed to potentially revisit the issue in the future.

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House Approves Court Action to Enforce Democrats’ Subpoenas

Westlake Legal Group 11dc-contempt-facebookJumbo House Approves Court Action to Enforce Democrats’ Subpoenas United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Suits and Litigation (Civil) Special Prosecutors (Independent Counsel) Presidents and Presidency (US) Justice Department impeachment House of Representatives Barr, William P

WASHINGTON — The House voted on Tuesday to authorize the Judiciary Committee to go to court to enforce two subpoenas related to Robert S. Mueller III’s inquiry — threatening to open a new legal front in the Democrats’ efforts to investigate President Trump and his administration.

The resolution, which passed along party lines, 229 to 191, grants the Judiciary Committee the power to petition a federal judge to force Attorney General William P. Barr and the former White House counsel Donald F. McGahn II to comply with congressional subpoenas that they have either completely or partly defied.

But it also empowers other House committees to move more quickly to court in future disputes — authorities that could quickly be put to the test. The House Oversight and Reform Committee, for instance, is expected to vote Wednesday to recommend separate contempt of Congress citations against Mr. Barr and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross over that panel’s investigation into the administration’s efforts to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census.

“We’re here in a fight for the soul of our democracy, and we will use every single tool that is available to us to hold this administration accountable for its actions and make sure the government is working effectively and efficiently for all the people,” Representative Elijah E. Cummings, Democrat of Maryland and the oversight panel’s chairman, told reporters after the vote.

Despite earlier threats and a recommendation from the Judiciary Committee, Democrats stopped short of formally holding either Mr. Barr or Mr. McGahn in contempt of Congress for now, forgoing an accusation of a crime in favor of what they hope is continued leverage to force cooperation. The decision appears to be based, at least in part, on new signs of compromise from the Justice Department, which on Monday agreed after weeks of hostilities to begin sharing key evidence collected in Mr. Mueller’s obstruction of justice investigation.

[Read the House’s resolution.]

The committee had demanded that Mr. Barr and the Justice Department hand over the full text of the special counsel’s report and the evidence underlying it, and that Mr. McGahn testify in public and produce evidence that he had given Mr. Mueller.

Neither the Justice Department nor lawyers for Mr. McGahn immediately commented on the vote.

The House Democratic leaders called the vote a vital step in their methodical march to expose Mr. Trump’s behavior and pressure the Trump administration to cooperate with congressional oversight requests. They also clearly saw it as a means of holding off calls within their ranks to quickly move to impeach the president, arguing that it showed there are other ways of using their power to hold him accountable.

“The responsibility the speaker and I have is to try to move ahead in a measured, focused, effective way to garner the information that the American people need to make determinations, and for us to make determinations, and I think we’re doing that,” said Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the House majority leader.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, addressing lawmakers on the House floor shortly before the vote, framed the court authorizations as a step toward upholding the principle that Congress was “constitutionally obligated and legally entitled to access and review materials from the executive branch.”

If they follow through in filing the suits, Democrats will be effectively calling on a third branch of government, the federal judiciary, to settle a dispute between the legislative and executive branches over Congress’s right to conduct investigations and the extent of the president’s authority to shield evidence from lawmakers. The answer could have significant implications not just for Mr. Trump, but for oversight of the executive branch for decades to come.

But there is no guarantee the courts will give them a useful outcome — at least not quickly. Past cases have stretched on for months or even years, a fact that could become problematic for Ms. Pelosi and her team as they seek to keep calls for impeachment at bay.

It was not immediately clear how quickly Democrats would file a suit against Mr. McGahn, a key figure in Mr. Mueller’s report, or if they would seek court enforcement against Mr. Barr at all. The Judiciary Committee chairman, Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, told reporters on Tuesday that the House would not dawdle but that timing would depend on the House general counsel who represents lawmakers in court. The counsel, Doug Letter, will address Democrats on Wednesday morning in a closed meeting.

“We’re not going to go to court with the attorney general so long as in good faith they do what they have agreed to do,” Mr. Nadler said after the vote.

Tuesday’s resolution also gives Mr. Nadler the authority to petition a federal judge for access to secretive grand jury material amassed in the course of Mr. Mueller’s investigation. Such information rarely becomes public, but Mr. Nadler has made the case that his committee needs access to it to determine whether impeachment is warranted. His efforts to persuade the Justice Department to join him in making the request were rebuffed.

The dispute in the Oversight Committee could soon put to a test yet another provision of Tuesday’s resolution, allowing committees to go straight to court to enforce subpoenas without a full House vote as long as they have the blessing of leadership.

Wednesday’s contempt vote stems from an investigation into why the Trump administration is trying to add a question about citizenship to the census — which Democrats fear would suppress population counts in liberal-leaning areas ahead of reapportioning congressional seats.

This spring, Mr. Barr instructed a subordinate involved in the census question to defy a subpoena requiring him to appear for a deposition. He cited a House rule preventing a Justice Department lawyer from accompanying the witness.

In a letter on Tuesday to Mr. Cummings, the Trump administration said Mr. Trump would most likely invoke executive privilege if the panel did not back down. It appended a newly disclosed memo by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel fleshing out the argument that the subpoena for testimony was invalid because it encroached on Mr. Trump’s executive powers.

Despite Democratic calls for them to put their loyalty to the House over party, Republicans unanimously opposed Tuesday’s authorization of legal action. They said Democrats bent on impeachment were neglecting more pressing policy issues, like the migrants who are overwhelming government resources at the southwestern border.

“They are so tangled up in their efforts to impeach the president, in the investigations, in the battles going on within their own caucus, that they seem incapable of actually doing anything the American people elected us to come here and do,” said Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the No. 3 House Republican.

They also questioned the wisdom of their decision to bypass formal contempt votes to go directly to court. In past cases — including in 2012, when the Republican-controlled House held Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. in contempt — the full House had voted in favor of that censure before going to court to seek subpoena enforcement there.

“This is novel, untested and risky,” said Representative Doug Collins of Georgia, the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee. “I’ll give it to you,” he continued, “this majority is audacious.”

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House Approves Court Action to Enforce Subpoenas of Barr and McGahn

Westlake Legal Group 11dc-contempt-facebookJumbo House Approves Court Action to Enforce Subpoenas of Barr and McGahn United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Suits and Litigation (Civil) Special Prosecutors (Independent Counsel) Presidents and Presidency (US) Justice Department impeachment House of Representatives Barr, William P

WASHINGTON — The Democrat-led House voted on Tuesday to authorize the Judiciary Committee to go to court to enforce two subpoenas related to Robert S. Mueller III’s investigative findings and to empower other panels to move more quickly to court in future disputes.

The resolution, which passed along party lines, 229 to 191, grants the Judiciary Committee the power to petition a federal judge to force Attorney General William P. Barr and the former White House counsel Donald F. McGahn II to comply with congressional subpoenas that they have either completely or partly defied.

But it stops short of holding either witness in contempt of Congress, as lawmakers had initially threatened to do, forgoing for now a formal accusation of a crime. The decision appears to be based, at least in part, on new signs of cooperation from the Justice Department, which on Monday agreed to begin sharing key evidence collected in Mr. Mueller’s obstruction of justice investigation.

[Read the House’s resolution.]

The committee had demanded that Mr. Barr and the Justice Department hand over the full text of the special counsel’s report and the evidence underlying it, and that Mr. McGahn testify in public and produce evidence that he had given Mr. Mueller.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi framed the vote as a step to uphold the principle that Congress is “constitutionally obligated and legally entitled to access and review materials from the executive branch.”

House Democratic leaders called the vote a vital step in their methodical march to expose Mr. Trump’s behavior and pressure the Trump administration to cooperate with congressional oversight requests. They also clearly saw it as a means of holding off calls within their ranks to quickly move to impeach the president, arguing that it showed there are other ways of using their power to hold him accountable.

If they follow through in filing the suits, Democrats will be effectively calling on a third branch of government, the federal judiciary, to settle a dispute between the legislative and executive branches over Congress’s right to conduct investigations and the extent of the president’s authority to shield evidence from lawmakers. The answer could have significant implications not just for President Trump, but for oversight of the executive branch for decades to come.

But there is no guarantee the courts will give them a useful outcome — at least not quickly. Past cases have stretched on for months or even years.

It was not immediately clear how quickly Democrats would file a suit against Mr. McGahn, a key figure in Mr. Mueller’s report, or if they would seek court enforcement against Mr. Barr at all. The Judiciary Committee chairman, Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, told reporters on Tuesday that the House would not dawdle but that timing would depend on the House general counsel who represents lawmakers in court.

Tuesday’s resolution also gives Mr. Nadler the authority to petition a federal judge for access to secretive grand jury material amassed in the course of Mr. Mueller’s investigation. Such information rarely becomes public, but Mr. Nadler has made the case that his committee needs access to it to determine whether impeachment is warranted. His efforts to persuade the Justice Department to join him in making the request were rebuffed.

Republicans who opposed the authorization said Democrats bent on impeachment were neglecting more pressing policy issues, like the migrants who are overwhelming government resources at the southern border.

“They are so tangled up in their efforts to impeach the president, in the investigations, in the battles going on within their own caucus, that they seem incapable of actually doing anything the American people elected us to come here and do,” Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the No. 3 House Republican, told reporters on Tuesday at the party’s weekly news conference.

They also questioned the wisdom of their decision to bypass formal contempt votes to go directly to court. In past cases — including in 2012, when the Republican-controlled House held Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. in contempt — the full House had voted in favor of that censure before going to court to seek subpoena enforcement there.

“This is novel, untested and risky,” said Representative Doug Collins of Georgia, the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee. “I’ll give it to you,” he continued, “this majority is audacious.”

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A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs as They Travel to Iowa

OTTUMWA, Iowa — President Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. both traveled to the key early voting state of Iowa on Tuesday, trading attacks in sharply personal terms and giving the country a preview of what a general election match-up between the two men might look like.

Mr. Biden, who leads in early polls for the Democratic presidential nomination, described Mr. Trump as “an existential threat” who could fundamentally change the nature of the country and its values, and who is already jeopardizing America’s standing around the world, remarks that came during an afternoon appearance at an events center here.

Mr. Trump, as he departed the Oval Office, told reporters that he thought Mr. Biden was “a loser” and questioned his mental fitness. “I’d rather run against, I think, Biden than anybody,” he said. “I think he’s the weakest mentally, and I like running against people that are weak mentally. I think Joe is the weakest up here. The other ones have much more energy.”

The hostile exchange underscored the extent to which the two men view themselves as political foils in the 2020 White House race. Mr. Biden has largely ignored his Democratic rivals while building his campaign around the urgent need to oust Mr. Trump. The president, mindful of polling that shows him trailing Mr. Biden in several key states, has targeted him in particular with ridicule.

While they have attacked each other from a distance, their appearances in the same state on Tuesday seemed primed to intensify the hostility.

Mr. Biden, who began a three-city swing across the state on Tuesday, wasted no time trying to frame the debate, releasing excerpts at 6 a.m from the remarks he had prepared to deliver at a speech in Davenport in the evening.

The excerpts laced into Mr. Trump over a range of policy issues, such as “pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war” and his approach to tariff negotiations, as farmers — including in this heavily agricultural state — have struggled.

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Westlake Legal Group 11bidentrump-videoSixteenByNine3000 A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs as They Travel to Iowa Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Prior to leaving for Iowa, President Trump told reporters that he would prefer to run against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020.CreditCreditDoug Mills/The New York Times

Speaking in Ottumwa, Mr. Biden said that Mr. Trump’s visit to Iowa could be a “clarifying event.”

“Iowa farmers have been crushed by his tariff war with China,” he said.

Mr. Trump, who prides himself on counterpunching, was scheduled to tour an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs in the late afternoon, hours after Mr. Biden’s first event in Ottumwa. Later in the evening, Mr. Trump was set to fly Air Force One across the state, appearing in West Des Moines for a state Republican Party fund-raising dinner as Mr. Biden delivers his speech in Davenport.

Public and private polls that show Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden in critical states have also made him most preoccupied with Mr. Biden, whom he has told aides to describe as old and feeble (Mr. Biden is 76; Mr. Trump will turn 73 this week).

Mr. Trump was criticized for attacking the former vice president on foreign soil while visiting Tokyo recently. But his trip to Iowa — a state that twice supported former President Barack Obama before flipping decisively for Mr. Trump in 2016 — will provide him with an appropriate stage on which to take on Mr. Biden.

Up to this point, Mr. Biden has largely resisted responding to Mr. Trump’s individual broadsides, insisting repeatedly that he wants to avoid a “mud-wrestling match” with the president and often ignoring shouted questions from reporters about Mr. Trump’s remarks.

But that hardly means Mr. Biden avoids discussing Mr. Trump. He is centering his campaign squarely on defeating the president, calling him an “aberration.” It’s a point of emphasis sharply at odds with several of his Democratic opponents, who believe Trumpism has redefined the Republican Party and say the country needs bigger, structural change that goes beyond defeating one man.

At every turn, Mr. Biden is seeking to keep the focus on a possible general election matchup between himself and Mr. Trump. He has recently visited Pennsylvania and Ohio, important general election swing states, arguing that he is able to connect in the industrial Midwest and torching Mr. Trump’s leadership approach.

While many of the voters who filed into his Ottumwa event shared Mr. Biden’s near-single-minded focus on Mr. Trump, praising Mr. Biden as someone who could appeal to moderates and independents, Cheri Scherr, 63, said she had hoped to hear “more about his ideas.”

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Westlake Legal Group 25bidenrunsHFO1-videoSixteenByNine3000 A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs as They Travel to Iowa Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a two-term vice president and spent 36 years as a senator. But his front-runner status in the Democratic primary will be tested by the party’s desire for generational change.CreditCreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

“I wish he would talk less about Trump,” said Ms. Scherr of Pella, Iowa. “We’re Democrats, we know why we don’t like Trump.”

Mr. Biden has generally avoided responding to fellow Democrats, even as his opponents ramp up their critiques of him. One exception came Monday, when he implicitly responded to the entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who had criticized him for missing a gathering of Democrats in Iowa over the weekend that drew most of the primary field.

“My granddaughter was graduating,” he said at a fund-raiser. “It was my daughter’s birthday. I would skip inauguration for that.” He is expected to reiterate a version of that message later on Tuesday.

Mr. Biden has also begun to roll out policy platforms, including on climate and education, though he has released fewer than many of his rivals so far. But on the campaign trail he often underscores that the first step to achieving any Democratic priority is beating Mr. Trump.

“If you want to know what the first, most important plank in my climate proposal is, beat Trump,” he said at his campaign’s first large-scale rally, held last month in Philadelphia. “Beat Trump, beat Trump.”

Mr. Biden’s face-off against Mr. Trump on Tuesday could have downsides, some Democratic strategists cautioned.

“The Biden campaign clearly seems to relish sparring with Trump. In their minds, they believe it elevates him above the rest of the Democratic field,” said Brian Fallon, who served as press secretary for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. “The potential downside is that as Trump road tests different attacks on Biden, it may help the Democratic primary electorate better visualize potential vulnerabilites that Biden would have in a general election.”

Mr. Fallon said that if any of those attacks — from his supposed lack of energy to his support for the 1994 crime bill — changed voter perceptions, “that could erode the aura of electability that is right now Biden’s strongest asset.”

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A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs Ahead of Iowa Trip

OTTUMWA, Iowa — President Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. both traveled to the key early voting state of Iowa on Tuesday, trading attacks in sharply personal terms and giving the country a preview of what a general election match-up between the two men might look like.

Mr. Biden, who leads in early polls for the Democratic presidential nomination, described Mr. Trump as “an existential threat” who could change the nature of the nation and its values. He also ridiculed Mr. Trump’s trade policy, saying that “cashiers at Target” knew more about economics than the president.

Mr. Trump, as he departed the Oval Office, told reporters that he thought Mr. Biden was “a loser” and questioned his mental fitness. “I’d rather run against, I think, Biden than anybody,” he said. “I think he’s the weakest mentally, and I like running against people that are weak mentally. I think Joe is the weakest up here. The other ones have much more energy.”

The hostile exchange underscored the extent to which the two men view themselves as political foils in the 2020 White House race. Mr. Biden has largely ignored his Democratic rivals while building his campaign around the urgent need to oust Mr. Trump. The president, mindful of polling that shows him trailing Mr. Biden in several key states, has targeted him in particular with ridicule.

While they have attacked each other from a distance, their appearances in the same state on Tuesday seemed primed to intensify the hostility.

Mr. Biden, who began a three-city swing across the state on Tuesday, wasted no time trying to frame the debate, releasing excerpts at 6 a.m from the remarks he had prepared to deliver at a speech in Davenport in the evening.

Video

Westlake Legal Group 11bidentrump-videoSixteenByNine3000 A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs Ahead of Iowa Trip Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Prior to leaving for Iowa, President Trump told reporters that he would prefer to run against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020.CreditCreditDoug Mills/The New York Times

The excerpts laced into Mr. Trump over a range of policy issues, such as “pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war” and his approach to tariff negotiations, as farmers — including in this heavily agricultural state — have struggled.

“Trump doesn’t get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China,” Mr. Biden is set to say. “Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs. The cashiers at Target see what’s going on — they know more about economics than Trump.”

Mr. Trump, who prides himself on counterpunching, was scheduled to tour an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs in the late afternoon, hours after Mr. Biden’s first event in Ottumwa. Later in the evening, Mr. Trump was set to fly Air Force One across the state, appearing in West Des Moines for a state Republican Party fund-raising dinner as Mr. Biden delivers his speech in Davenport.

Public and private polls that show Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden in critical states have also made him most preoccupied with Mr. Biden, whom he has told aides to describe as old and feeble (Mr. Biden is 76; Mr. Trump will turn 73 this week).

Mr. Trump was criticized for attacking the former vice president on foreign soil while visiting Tokyo recently. But his trip to Iowa — a state that twice supported former President Barack Obama before flipping decisively for Mr. Trump in 2016 — will provide him with an appropriate stage on which to take on Mr. Biden.

Up to this point, Mr. Biden has largely resisted responding to Mr. Trump’s individual broadsides, insisting repeatedly that he wants to avoid a “mud-wrestling match” with the president and often ignoring shouted questions from reporters about Mr. Trump’s remarks.

But that hardly means Mr. Biden avoids discussing Mr. Trump. He is centering his campaign squarely on defeating the president, calling him an “aberration.” It’s a point of emphasis sharply at odds with several of his Democratic opponents, who believe Trumpism has redefined the Republican Party and say the country needs bigger, structural change that goes beyond defeating one man.

Video

Westlake Legal Group 25bidenrunsHFO1-videoSixteenByNine3000 A ‘Loser.’ An ‘Existential Threat.’ Trump and Biden Trade Barbs Ahead of Iowa Trip Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a two-term vice president and spent 36 years as a senator. But his front-runner status in the Democratic primary will be tested by the party’s desire for generational change.CreditCreditMaddie McGarvey for The New York Times

At every turn, Mr. Biden is seeking to keep the focus on a possible general election matchup between himself and Mr. Trump. He has recently visited Pennsylvania and Ohio, important general election swing states, arguing that he is able to connect in the industrial Midwest and torching Mr. Trump’s leadership approach.

He has generally avoided responding to fellow Democrats, even as his opponents ramp up their critiques of him. One exception came Monday, when he implicitly responded to the entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who had criticized him for missing a gathering of Democrats in Iowa over the weekend that drew most of the primary field.

“My granddaughter was graduating,” he said at a fund-raiser. “It was my daughter’s birthday. I would skip inauguration for that.” He is expected to reiterate a version of that message later on Tuesday.

Mr. Biden has also begun to roll out policy platforms, including on climate and education, though he has released fewer than many of his rivals so far. But on the campaign trail he often underscores that the first step to achieving any Democratic priority is beating Mr. Trump.

“If you want to know what the first, most important plank in my climate proposal is, beat Trump,” he said at his campaign’s first large-scale rally, held last month in Philadelphia. “Beat Trump, beat Trump.”

Mr. Biden’s face-off against Mr. Trump on Tuesday could have downsides, some Democratic strategists cautioned.

“The Biden campaign clearly seems to relish sparring with Trump. In their minds, they believe it elevates him above the rest of the Democratic field,” said Brian Fallon, who served as press secretary for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. “The potential downside is that as Trump road tests different attacks on Biden, it may help the Democratic primary electorate better visualize potential vulnerabilites that Biden would have in a general election.”

Mr. Fallon said that if any of those attacks — from his supposed lack of energy to his support for the 1994 crime bill — changed voter perceptions, “that could erode the aura of electability that is right now Biden’s strongest asset.”

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Biden to Describe Trump as ‘Existential Threat’ as They Circle Each Other in Iowa

Westlake Legal Group 11BIDENTRUMP1-facebookJumbo Biden to Describe Trump as ‘Existential Threat’ as They Circle Each Other in Iowa Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Iowa Biden, Joseph R Jr

DES MOINES — President Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who are increasingly sparring and treating each other as political foils in the 2020 White House race, are each set to appear on Tuesday in the key early voting state of Iowa — and the Biden campaign wasted no time throwing swings.

Mr. Biden, who leads in early polls for the Democratic presidential nomination, will call Mr. Trump “an existential threat to America” in a speech in Davenport on Tuesday evening, according to prepared remarks. He will lace into the president over a range of issues, such as “pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war” and his approach to tariff negotiations, as farmers — including in this heavily agricultural state — have struggled.

“Trump doesn’t get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China,” Mr. Biden is expected to say. “Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs. The cashiers at Target see what’s going on — they know more about economics than Trump.”

Mr. Biden’s campaign released early excerpts from his remarks at 6 a.m. in an attempt to frame the political day to come on the former vice president’s terms, rather than Mr. Trump’s, who usually begins attacking rivals on Twitter in the morning.

Mr. Trump avoided tweeting about Mr. Biden in the early hours, focusing on Democrats looking to investigate him rather than those running to replace him. But Mr. Trump has a long history of tearing into the former vice president, calling him “Sleepy Joe Biden,” mocking his crowd sizes, criticizing him on foreign soil and going after his family’s business dealings. Mr. Trump, who is often at his most energized when in campaign mode, will be in a highly partisan environment Tuesday evening as he addresses a dinner held by the Iowa Republican Party. It’s another potential opportunity for him to draw contrasts with a Democratic rival who is seeking to win back some of the same voters that powered Mr. Trump’s 2016 victory.

Mr. Biden, meanwhile, appears ready to deliver some of his most direct and blistering criticism of the president to date as he makes three campaign stops across the state, in his latest effort to stay above the Democratic primary fray and to deliver a general-election-themed message focused squarely on defeating Mr. Trump.

The schedule for the day had Mr. Biden setting the tone. Mr. Trump, who prides himself on counterpunching, was scheduled to tour an ethanol plant in Council Bluffs in the late afternoon, for what would ostensibly be a White House event, hours after Mr. Biden’s first event in Ottumwa. Later in the evening, Mr. Trump was set to fly Air Force One across the state, appearing in West Des Moines for the state party fund-raising dinner as Mr. Biden delivers his speech in Davenport.

Mr. Trump, who remains confident of his chances of re-election, has been frustrated, advisers said, by watching the campaign season from the sidelines. Public and private polls that show him trailing Mr. Biden in critical must-win states have also made him most preoccupied with Mr. Biden, whom he has told aides to describe as old and feeble (Mr. Biden is 76; Mr. Trump will turn 73 this week).

Mr. Trump was criticized for attacking the former vice president on foreign soil while visiting Tokyo recently. But his first trip to Iowa since the midterm elections — a state that twice supported former President Barack Obama before flipping decisively for Mr. Trump in 2016 — will provide him with an appropriate stage on which to take on Mr. Biden.

Up to this point, Mr. Biden has largely resisted responding to Mr. Trump’s individual broadsides, insisting repeatedly that he wants to avoid a “mud-wrestling match” with the president and often ignoring shouted questions from reporters about Mr. Trump’s remarks.

But that hardly means Mr. Biden avoids discussing Mr. Trump. In fact, more than most of his rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mr. Biden is centering his campaign squarely on defeating the president, calling his administration an “aberration.” It’s a point of emphasis sharply at odds with several of his Democratic opponents, who believe Trumpism has redefined the Republican Party and say the country needs bigger, structural change that goes beyond defeating one man.

At every turn, Mr. Biden is seeking to keep the focus on a possible general election matchup between himself and Mr. Trump. He has recently visited Pennsylvania and Ohio, important general election swing states, arguing that he is able to connect in the industrial Midwest and torching Mr. Trump’s leadership approach.

He has generally avoided responding to fellow Democrats, even as his opponents ramp up their critiques of him. One exception came Monday, when he implicitly responded to the entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who had criticized him for missing a gathering of Democrats in Iowa over the weekend that drew most of the primary field.

“My granddaughter was graduating,” he said at a fund-raiser. “It was my daughter’s birthday. I would skip inauguration for that.” He is expected to reiterate a version of that message on Tuesday.

Mr. Biden has also begun to roll out policy platforms, including on climate and education, though he has released fewer than many of his rivals so far. But on the campaign trail he often underscores that the first step to achieving any Democratic priority is beating Mr. Trump.

“If you want to know what the first, most important plank in my climate proposal is, beat Trump,” he said at his campaign’s first large-scale rally, held last month in Philadelphia. “Beat Trump, beat Trump.”

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Trump’s Trade War Has Wall Street Forecasts Frozen in Place

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Business executives have warned repeatedly about the damage President Trump’s trade wars could do to their profits. Wall Street analysts and strategists have called increasing tit-for-tat tariffs the greatest risk to economic growth. Trade groups have raised alarms about the impact of rising prices on consumer spending.

Yet, as trade tensions have flared again, research analysts who forecast company earnings barely lowered their estimates for this year and next. That may not be good news for the stock market.

Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to increase their profits by 3.1 percent this year. That’s just 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast for growth at the start of May, when Mr. Trump dashed investors’ hopes that a trade deal with China was near, according to data from John Butters, the senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Sales-growth estimates for 2019 are just two-tenths of a percentage point lower, at 4.5 percent.

Estimates for next year have also barely budged.

Given the concern surrounding tariffs, then, why haven’t earnings forecasts slipped more?

The answer, in short, is that it’s hard to quantify the costs of various on-again, off-again trade conflicts, or threats of future measures.

Many on Wall Street suspect Mr. Trump is just threatening more tariffs as a negotiating tactic, and deals will be struck before the most onerous levies go in to effect. The White House’s last-minute decision to call off tariffs on imports from Mexico would seem to encourage this kind of thinking.

Of course, the president has followed through on other tariffs, and that lack of certainty has left analysts wary of making big adjustments to their forecasts.

“There are so many different scenarios that people are trying to factor in,” said Carmel Wellso, the director of equity research at Janus Henderson. “Everyone knows that earnings estimates likely need to come down, but by how much? That’s the biggest challenge.”

They also have to consider that governments and central banks around the world will step in to stimulate the global economy, possibly offsetting some of the damage of the trade wars.

Mr. Trump’s escalation of the trade fight on multiple fronts hit stocks hard last month. The S&P 500 fell 6.6 percent. Stocks have rallied this month after Federal Reserve officials indicated they were prepared to act if the trade war threatened the economic expansion.

But the stock market is at risk of steeper declines if analysts do begin to revise down their forecasts.

The S&P 500’s slide in recent weeks has left the index by some measures looking fairly valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio, which compares stock prices to expected profits over the next 12 months, of 16.2 percent. That’s below the five-year average for the index.

But stocks could quickly begin to look expensive if the economy and earnings falter.

Tariffs will have a direct impact on many companies’ bottom lines by raising costs. The bigger effect, though, could come from the disruption of supply chains and the hit the trade wars pose to consumer and business confidence, which could lead to further economic slowing.

Corporate profits may be particularly vulnerable right now. Revenue overall is growing faster than earnings for companies in the S&P 500. In the first quarter, sales rose about 5 percent from a year earlier, while profits declined 0.4 percent. And that dynamic is expected to persist over the next two quarters. In other words, companies need revenue growth of 5 percent just to keep profits from contracting. That suggests companies have little ability to increase their bottom lines by expanding profit margins.

That means earnings could take a bigger hit if the tariffs cause the economy to slow and revenue growth to decline.

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Trump Says Mexico Tariffs Worked, Emboldening Trade Fight With China

Westlake Legal Group merlin_156247959_315c0a2f-f9f2-4ff8-a8be-3b0f87a26d2c-facebookJumbo Trump Says Mexico Tariffs Worked, Emboldening Trade Fight With China Xi Jinping United States Politics and Government United States International Relations United States Economy Trump, Donald J Mnuchin, Steven T Mexico International Trade and World Market Customs (Tariff) China

WASHINGTON — President Trump has concluded his tariff threat worked and forced Mexico to stop the flow of migrants. On Monday, he pivoted back to his trade fight with China and vowed to hit Beijing with more tariffs if it did not accede to America’s trade demands.

“The China deal’s going to work out,” Mr. Trump said in an interview on CNBC. “You know why? Because of tariffs. Because right now China is getting absolutely decimated by companies that are leaving China, going to other countries, including our own, because they don’t want to pay the tariffs.”

The president has long favored tariffs as an immediate and unilateral policy tool. But his increasing confidence that the levies have helped accomplish his goals without harming the United States sets up an even more tumultuous period ahead for businesses, consumers and foreign countries.

“Protectionism shows no signs of abating, rather it is intensifying,” said Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist at MFR Inc.

Markets are already counting on the Federal Reserve to come to the rescue by cutting interest rates. Fed officials have begun signaling they are prepared to help prop up the economy to counter any slowdown from Mr. Trump’s trade war, a development that could give the president even more leeway to carry out an aggressive trade policy.

Mr. Trump on Monday continued to attack the Fed for raising rates last year, saying it had put the United States at a competitive disadvantage to China, which has a fairly subservient central bank. “They devalue their currency. They have for years,” he said. “It’s put them at a tremendous competitive advantage, and we don’t have that advantage because we have a Fed that doesn’t lower interest rates.”

The president insisted his tariffs were having their intended effect — pressuring other countries to make deals, prompting companies to move factories back to the United States and generating an enormous amount of money, all without costing American consumers.

“A lot of countries have changed their habits because they know they’re next,” Mr. Trump said.

He said he was prepared to place 25 percent tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods and would do so immediately if a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping of China did not happen this month during the G-20 summit meeting in Japan.

“We are scheduled to talk and meet,” Mr. Trump said during remarks to reporters at the White House. “We always have the option to raise it another $300 billion to 25 percent.”

Mr. Trump has blamed China for “reneging” on a trade deal with the United States, and last month, he raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods as punishment. China has retaliated by raising tariffs on about $60 billion worth of American products, like soybeans. Mr. Trump said on Monday that he saw no downside to taxing nearly everything China sends into the United States, saying it would continue to boost the American economy.

“We’ve never gotten 10 cents from China. Now we’re getting a lot of money from China, and I think that’s one of the reasons the G.D.P. was so high in the first quarter because of the tariffs that we’re taking in from China,” he said, referring to the gross domestic product, which grew about 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year.

Economists and business leaders have rejected Mr. Trump’s claims that the tariffs are doing no harm and say the trade war is slowing global growth and could ultimately trigger a recession.

The World Bank said late last month that global trade growth has slowed to its lowest level in a decade, while the International Monetary Fund warned that reciprocal tariffs between the United States and China could reduce global gross domestic product by 0.5 percent, or $455 billion, next year. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates that at their current levels, Mr. Trump’s tariffs would cost the typical American household $831 over a year.

But the president and his top advisers continue to disagree that import taxes — both real and threatened — are pinching economic growth.

“I don’t think in any way that the slowdowns you’re seeing in parts of the world are a result of trade tensions at the moment,” Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, told reporters this weekend on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Japan.

That view is unlikely to change absent a steep drop in the stock market or a pronounced slowdown in the American economy, two metrics that Mr. Trump pays close attention to.

Most expect the Fed to act before that occurs. Markets now estimate an 80 percent chance of a rate cut at or before the Fed’s July meeting, and they see a 46 percent chance of three or more .25 percentage point cuts by the end of the year.

Those estimates fell, but not by much, after Mr. Trump announced on Friday that he had reached an immigration deal with Mexico and would suspend his tariffs, suggesting investors are accepting a rate cut as a done deal. Analysts say that the president’s willingness to use levies as a negotiating tactic for nontrade matters is helping to perpetuate uncertainty.

On Monday, Mr. Trump defended the immigration agreement with Mexico as a victory, and said unequivocally that tariffs were the vehicle that delivered it.

“If we didn’t have tariffs, we wouldn’t have made a deal with Mexico,” the president said. “We got everything we wanted.”

It was not clear what the threat of tariffs on Mexico helped the president to secure. Major terms of the deal were agreed to months ago.

But last week, Mexico said it would deploy its national guard around the country, including to its southern border, and expand a program to allow asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed, both actions that had been discussed in prior months.

The United States and Mexico also reached an agreement in principle to review the number of migrants crossing into the United States in 45 days and again in 90 days. If the number has not dropped sufficiently, Mr. Trump said he could impose tariffs.

Some said Mr. Trump’s threats toward Mexico, a close American ally, could send a message that trade wars are winnable and that the president will not back down against China.

“It’s obvious that on a long-term perspective, President Trump is willing to effectively weaponize tariffs,” said Wen Lu, a rates strategist at TD Securities. “I think he’s almost using this as a political message to reinforce his stance against China.”

The president’s fondness for levies has already propelled the United States into the top echelons of tariff-wielding countries. The United States now has an overall tariff level that is more than twice as high as Canada, Britain, Italy and Germany, and even higher than emerging markets like Russia and Turkey, according to research by Torsten Slok, a chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

Progress toward a trade agreement with China has stalled since early last month, and Mr. Mnuchin said over the weekend that no further talks were scheduled. The next significant meeting is expected to take place between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi in late June.

In the meantime, the United States continues to prepare for the next round of Chinese tariffs. The United States trade representative will hold a hearing on June 17 to allow companies to testify about the effects of the next $300 billion worth of levies on their businesses. That round of tariffs would hit a wide range of consumer goods, including sneakers, televisions and cribs.

Mr. Trump has also indicated he sees the fate of Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant that has been blacklisted from buying American technology, as a point of leverage in the trade talks.

The administration announced a ban on Huawei’s access to American components on May 15, citing security concerns. The executive order blacklisting Huawei had actually been prepared for months, but officials held off issuing it while trade talks continued. When negotiations with the Chinese broke down at the beginning of May, a consensus emerged among top Trump administration officials to proceed with adding the company to an “entity list,” according to people familiar with the matter, who declined to be named to discuss private deliberations.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said he viewed Huawei as a “threat” but “at the same time, it could be very well that we do something with respect to Huawei as part of our trade negotiations with China.”

Other countries are watching the threats warily. The Trump administration gave the European Union and Japan a six-month reprieve from tariffs on their auto exports in May, but negotiators have yet to make much progress on a trade agreement.

The administration has also been ramping up a trade fight with India, and laying the groundwork to impose tariffs on a variety of countries for manipulating their currencies.

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