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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Trump, Donald J" (Page 39)

Vote for Biden? Sanders Supporters Say It’s ‘Up in the Air’

Westlake Legal Group 00sanders-voters-facebookJumbo Vote for Biden? Sanders Supporters Say It’s ‘Up in the Air’ Voting and Voters Trump, Donald J Third-Party Politics (US) Sanders, Bernard Primaries and Caucuses Presidential Election of 2020 Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr

Mary Shippee voted for Senator Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin’s Democratic primary this month, well after it was clear he had no chance to become the party’s presidential nominee.

Now that Mr. Sanders has dropped out and endorsed former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Ms. Shippee is torn over whether to once again cast a vote for a moderate Democrat in November, after grudgingly supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 and President Barack Obama in 2012.

“What it feels like is the Democratic Party relies on guilting progressives into voting for them, and they don’t want to have any meaningful changes,” said Ms. Shippee, 31, a nursing student in Milwaukee. “For the third election in a row, to have a candidate you’re not excited about makes me a little more interested in voting third party.”

Despite Mr. Sanders’s call to unite behind Mr. Biden to defeat President Trump — whom the Vermont senator described as “the most dangerous president” of modern times — and despite Mr. Obama’s assurance that the party had moved left since he left office, the youthful and impassioned army of Sanders supporters is far from ready to embrace a nominee so unlike the one they pinned their dreams on.

In interviews with two dozen Sanders primary voters across the country this week, there was a nearly universal lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Some called him a less formidable candidate than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. Many were skeptical of his ability to beat Mr. Trump. Others were quick to critique Mr. Biden’s sometimes incoherent speech.

Taken together, the voters’ doubts raised questions about how many would show up for Mr. Biden in November, including their likelihood to volunteer and organize for him, an important measure of enthusiasm. In a poll last month, four out of five Sanders supporters said they would vote for Mr. Biden, with 15 percent saying they would cross over to Mr. Trump, about the same share that did so in 2016.

Te’wuan Thorne, 24, said it was “up in the air” whether he would vote. A Sanders supporter who recently moved to New York City from Pennsylvania, where he is registered to vote, he said, “If I happen to be at my polling place, I would vote for Biden, but I’m not very enthusiastic about him whatsoever.”

Some Sanders primary voters said they would back a third-party candidate, a few said they would vote for Mr. Trump, and some were wavering about voting at all. Daniel Ray, 27, of Lancaster, Penn., planned to write in Tulsi Gabbard, the congresswoman from Hawaii who ended her long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination last month.

In Facebook groups for Sanders supporters and on Twitter, cynicism persisted about the olive branches on policy that Mr. Biden has offered to progressives and, at the extreme, some accused Mr. Sanders of selling out his leftist movement.

It is clear, if it wasn’t already, that the Sanders base is far different from the supporters of moderate candidates in the primaries, who moved on quickly from their first choices to coalesce around Mr. Biden early last month. For Mr. Sanders, bringing his people on board will not be easy, even though he endorsed Mr. Biden with seeming affection and months earlier than he did Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

Nathaniel Kesselring of Tucson voted for Mr. Sanders in the Arizona primary but said he would not vote for Mr. Biden because progressives should not compromise on issues like “Medicare for all” and free public college tuition.

“If we don’t declare as a movement that this isn’t good enough,” Mr. Kesselring said, referring to Mr. Biden’s moderate policies, “then the Democratic Party has every right to ignore us. I hate the idea of Donald Trump being president for another term, but if that’s what we need to do to make these people take us seriously, that’s what needs to be done.”

“I hate it,” repeated Mr. Kesselring, 45, the vice president of a buyer’s club for diabetes products. “I hate it. But I’m not moving.”

Certainly, as polling shows, the majority of Sanders voters plan to support Mr. Biden. Most of those interviewed who intend to do so called it a hold-your-nose election.

“I will vote for him; Biden is better than Trump, sure,” said Stephen Phillips, 33, who lives in Lakeland, Fla., and has been furloughed from his job in talent recruitment because of the coronavirus outbreak. But he cringed watching Mr. Sanders’s live-streamed endorsement of Mr. Biden on Monday, when the senator spoke extemporaneously while the former vice president seemed to be reading off cue cards. “This guy is going to be running against Donald Trump, who off the cuff can destroy anybody with words.”

Maria Aviles-Hernandez, 24, a Spanish teacher near Rocky Mount, N.C., didn’t vote in 2016 but plans to support Mr. Biden, although Mr. Sanders was her first choice. “I will vote this year, I will make sure of that,” she said. “I didn’t expect Trump to win the first time. The world just surprised me. I don’t want that to happen again.”

A challenge for Mr. Biden in the fall is that even if he has the grudging support of Sanders voters, many may not go out of their way to vote, either by applying for absentee ballots or by traveling home if they are students.

“For a college student, the barriers to get to the voting place are very real,” said Victoria Waring, 21, whose family home is in central Pennsylvania but who attends college in Philadelphia, studying film and animation. “A lot of my friends are disillusioned with the Democratic Party, they feel there’s nothing they can do to be represented, that the establishment will pick whoever they want and it doesn’t matter what we say.”

In 2016, before she was old enough to vote, Ms. Waring organized for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate. Ms. Waring said she would not volunteer this year for the Biden campaign. “How could I in good faith tell someone to vote for someone who I don’t agree with on any issue?” she asked. “I can’t. No. Absolutely not.”

One survey after the 2016 election indicated that 12 percent of Mr. Sanders’s primary voters ended up voting for Mr. Trump in the general election. Another 8 percent of Sanders supporters voted for a third-party candidate, and 3 percent did not vote. The numbers were in line with past elections when a losing candidate’s primary voters did not support the nominee. But because the 2016 race was so close, with Mr. Trump winning by less than one percentage point in three crucial Rust Belt states, the Sanders drop-off voters helped tilt the election away from Mrs. Clinton.

Some Sanders supporters, to be sure, will be voting for Mr. Biden without hesitation.

Nathalia Calderon, 34, of Milford, Mich, said that before the state’s primary on March 10, which was a kind of last stand for Mr. Sanders, she had planned to vote for the Vermont senator. But she changed her mind before the election and voted for Mr. Biden instead.

“I believed in all the things Bernie wanted to do, but then I was doing a little more research and realized what he wanted to do wasn’t realistic,’’ she said. “When someone promises you the moon, most likely it isn’t going to happen.” She voted for Mr. Biden in the primary and looks forward to doing so again in November.

But many younger voters, who overwhelmingly backed Mr. Sanders in this year’s primary race, said Mr. Biden seemed like just another politician with wishy-washy positions on climate change and health care. What they craved, they said, was the type of fundamental change that Mr. Sanders has espoused for decades.

“Joe Biden, he seems fake to me,” said Jacob Davids, 21, a college student in Milwaukee. “I don’t know his policies, and if you haven’t put enough effort into P.R. and media to make viewers like me know where you stand, I’m not going to vote for you.”

Kevin Ridler, 55, voted for Mr. Sanders in this year’s Democratic primary and cast a ballot for Mr. Trump in the 2016 general election. Mr. Ridler lives in rural western Iowa and is the president of a railway maintenance workers’ local in the Midwest. He said he had believed Mr. Trump’s promises that he would be a friend of American workers. Immediately after the election, Mr. Ridler said, his union’s railroad employer refused to renegotiate a contract, citing a “new political climate,” and workers were forced to take a pay cut.

Mr. Ridler now calls his vote for Mr. Trump “a mistake” that he will not repeat.

He supported Mr. Sanders in Iowa’s caucuses. But he has a powerful dislike of Mr. Biden, whom he called dishonest, throwing in a few epithets. “I think he’s got dementia,” he said.

“Honestly, I hate to not vote at all,” he said, speaking from a railway bridge under construction outside Jefferson City, Mo. “I know that’s not the right thing to do, but that’s kind of what’s going to happen here.”

Robert Grullon, 29, a carpenter at a door factory near Melbourne, Fla., liked Mr. Sanders’s promises to raise the minimum wage and provide health care for all. “We love Bernie,” he said. “Bernie’s our guy.”

He complained that Hispanic voters and black voters — he is third-generation Dominican-American — tend to support Democrats but don’t get much back. “When are they going to have something for blacks and Hispanics, just for us?” he said. Mr. Biden struck him as just another politician in a blue suit.

“To tell you the truth, Trump might get my vote,” he said. “Donald Trump is a person who’s always been known in our community — I like hip-hop — we idolized him because he was a billionaire, he has been in rap videos, he has friends who are African-American.”

In eastern Iowa on Tuesday, Kelly Manning had just finished her route as a letter carrier for the Postal Service, which has lost millions in revenue during the pandemic even as Mr. Trump tries to block relief funding for the agency. Ms. Manning, 55, caucused for Mr. Sanders in Burlington, on the Mississippi River. She heard Mr. Biden speak when he came through Iowa, though she said he had made her nearly doze off.

“I’ll hold my nose and vote for Biden,” she said.

Her 31-year-old son, Mason Blow, is another matter. A staunch Sanders supporter, he voted for a third-party candidate in 2016. Ms. Manning said she and her sister were “working on him” to vote for Mr. Biden, to prevent a second Trump term.

“He said he won’t vote for Biden, he’s going to write in Bernie this time,” Ms. Manning said. “The younger people, they’re not used to having their dream crushed as we are.”

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An Overlooked, Possibly Fatal Coronavirus Crisis: A Dire Need for Kidney Dialysis

Westlake Legal Group 17VIRUS-DIALYSIS1-facebookJumbo An Overlooked, Possibly Fatal Coronavirus Crisis: A Dire Need for Kidney Dialysis your-feed-healthcare Ventilators (Medical) Trump, Donald J Shortages New York City Montefiore Health System Kidneys hospitals Fresenius Medical Care AG&Company KGaA Food and Drug Administration federal emergency management agency doctors dialysis Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

For weeks, U.S. government officials and hospital executives have warned of a looming shortage of ventilators as the coronavirus pandemic descended.

But now, doctors are sounding an alarm about an unexpected and perhaps overlooked crisis: a surge in Covid-19 patients with kidney failure that is leading to shortages of machines, supplies and staff required for emergency dialysis.

In recent weeks, doctors on the front lines in intensive care units in New York and other hard-hit cities have learned that the coronavirus isn’t only a respiratory disease that has led to a crushing demand for ventilators.

The disease is also shutting down some patients’ kidneys, posing yet another series of life-and-death calculations for doctors who must ferry a limited supply of specialized dialysis machines from one patient in kidney failure to the next. All the while fearing they may not be able to hook up everyone in time to save them.

It is not yet known whether the kidneys are a major target of the virus, or whether they’re just one more organ falling victim as a patient’s ravaged body surrenders. Dialysis fills the vital roles the kidneys play, cleaning the blood of toxins, balancing essential components including electrolytes, keeping blood pressure in check and removing excess fluids. It can be a temporary measure while the kidneys recover, or it can be used long-term if they do not. Another unknown is whether the kidney damage caused by the virus is permanent.

“The nephrologists in New York City are going slightly crazy making sure that everyone with kidney failure gets treatment,” said Dr. David S. Goldfarb, chief of nephrology at the New York campus of the New York Harbor VA Health Care System. “We don’t want people to die of inadequate dialysis.”

“Nothing like this has ever been seen in terms of the number of people needing kidney replacement therapy,” he said.

Outside of New York, the growing demand nationwide for kidney treatments is fraying the most advanced care units in hospitals at emerging hot spots like Boston, Chicago, New Orleans and Detroit.

Kidney specialists now estimate that 20 percent to 40 percent of I.C.U. patients with the coronavirus suffered kidney failure and needed emergency dialysis, according to Dr. Alan Kliger, a nephrologist at Yale University School of Medicine who is co-chairman of a Covid-19 response team for the American Society of Nephrology.

Hospitals’ “usual supplies are very quickly running out,” he said.

One doctor in New York City, who was not authorized to speak publicly, recalled anguished exchanges with other physicians last week. “You’re yelling at them. You’re telling them you don’t have a dialysis machine to give them. You hear the intensity and the desperation in the other person’s voice,” the doctor said. “My job was hell.”

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As the coronavirus spread rapidly in New York and in other cities, governors and mayors clamored for thousands more ventilators. But doctors have been surprised by the scarcity of dialysis machines and supplies, especially specialized equipment for continuous dialysis. That treatment is often used to replace the work of injured kidneys in critically ill patients.

The shortages involved not only the machines, but also fluids and other supplies needed for the dialysis regimen. Having enough trained nurses to provide the treatment has also been a bottleneck. Hospitals said they have called on the federal government to help prioritize equipment, supplies and personnel for the areas of the country that most need it, adding that manufacturers had not been fully responsive to the higher demand.

The fluids needed to run the dialysis machines are not on the Food and Drug Administration’s watch list of potential drug shortages, although the agency said it was closely monitoring the supply. The Federal Emergency Management Agency described the shortage of supplies and equipment as “unprecedented,” and said it was working with manufacturers and hospitals to identify additional supplies, both in the United States and overseas.

“Everybody thought about this as a respiratory illness,” said Dr. David Charytan, the chief of nephrology at N.Y.U. Langone Medical Center. “I don’t think this has been on people’s radar screen.”

The supplies allocated by manufacturers are insufficient, Dr. Charytan said, adding that the hospital switched to another type of machine when it couldn’t get additional equipment it had wanted. “It just doesn’t come anywhere close to meeting the need,” he said.

Early reports out of China suggested a low incidence of kidney damage from Covid-19, although there were some indications that the virus might directly affect the kidneys. As more data emerged from there, and as the pandemic began to take hold in Italy, word began to filter out to the broader nephrology community that many of the most seriously ill patients, those on ventilators, would also require dialysis.

It’s not yet known whether the organ injury results from the virus infecting kidney cells or is a secondary effect of critical illness or the increased tendency for blood clots to form in people with the disease.

The volume of patients needing dialysis is “orders of magnitude greater than the number of patients we would normally dialyze,” said Dr. Barbara Murphy, who is the chair of the department of medicine at Mount Sinai Health System. At her hospital alone, the number of patients requiring dialysis has risen threefold, she said.

The shortages in the United States highlight a lack of planning among state and federal officials to ensue that “hot spots like New York are given preferential access given the sheer volumes,” Dr. Murphy said.

Dr. Murphy said areas of the country that are planning for a possible surge in the demand for ventilators “also need to think about dialysis” and a national distribution system.

Hospitals are now pleading with the major manufacturers to send more supplies. As the coronavirus reached the United States, Baxter and NxStage, owned by Fresenius, placed limits on what hospitals could order to prevent hoarding.

Dr. Michael J. Ross, the chief of the nephrology division at Montefiore Health System in New York, said he spoke on the phone last Sunday with leaders of a company that produces dialysis supplies, “expressing how critical a situation this was for our patients.”

The call was about getting more machines, filters, pre-mixed fluids and tubing for continuous dialysis, he said.

The shortage of dialysis supplies in New York City hospitals was first reported by Politico.

The two main manufacturers of equipment and supplies for dialysis said orders were up fivefold, and that they were ramping up manufacturing as well as sending equipment and nursing staff to the New York region. Baxter, which is based in Illinois, said it also saw an increase in demand from China and Europe, and was flying in extra products from Europe this weekend.

“The demand spike was so fast and so high,” said Lauren Russ, a spokeswoman for Baxter. “We’re doing everything we possibly can.”

On Friday, Fresenius announced it was creating a national supply of machines that can be moved from place to place. “We are committed to supporting hospitals with continuous supply, particularly in markets most heavily impacted, so that patients can get the care they need,” said Bill Valle, the chief executive of Fresenius Medical Care North America in Massachusetts, in a statement.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York was asked at his briefing on Thursday about hospital reports indicating that dialysis machines were in short supply. Dr. Howard Zucker, the state’s health commissioner, said “there are not shortages across the board,” and Mr. Cuomo said that hospitals in need of equipment would get it.

In a statement, José E. Almeida, Baxter’s chief executive, said that the company was trying to prioritize the delivery of products “where they are most needed — hospitals that are being overwhelmed by an influx of patients who are critically ill from Covid-19.”

At Columbia University Irving Medical Center, Dr. Donald Landry, the chair of medicine, directly contacted Mr. Valle of Fresenius when other efforts failed and the situation grew desperate. While Dr. Landry said he was appreciative that the company responded by sending more machines, supplies and dialysis nurses, he described the experience as a warning to better prepare. “New York City gave us a glimpse of when a system comes up right to the edge,” he said.

Dr. Joshua Rosenberg, an attending physician in the intensive care unit at The Brooklyn Hospital Center, said on Thursday that he was seeing acute kidney injury in a wide range of patients, beyond those who were predisposed to kidney disease because they had high blood pressure or diabetes.

Miriam Figueroa, a dialysis nurse at the hospital, went from patient to patient on Thursday, providing three-hour dialysis treatments in a Covid-19 intensive care unit set up in a former chemotherapy infusion unit.

Some patients in the I.C.U. had developed acute kidney injury. They were receiving emergency dialysis through a vein in the neck, including one hospital staff member.

Ms. Figueroa said that as the need for dialysis for critically ill patients increased, the dialysis service had coped by moving machines and supplies from outpatient clinics to the inpatient wards. “We have to pull machines to do bedside” dialysis, she said, “so there are less patients that can be done as an outpatient.”

More than a dozen of the hospital’s roughly 240 patients in its outpatient dialysis clinic have died of Covid-19, according to Dr. Priyanka Singh, one of the attending nephrologists. People with chronic kidney disease may be particularly vulnerable.

Doctors are also employing alternative types of dialysis.

Some New York hospitals, including N.Y.U., Montefiore and Weill Cornell, that are in short supply of the more specialized dialysis machines — needed for what is known as continuous renal replacement therapy — have turned to peritoneal dialysis. It is typically used in patients with chronic kidney disease who want to treat themselves at home. The treatment is not always optimal in hospital patients, especially in those whose conditions are less stable, but “we are trying to give patients something,” Dr. Charytan said.

One problem with peritoneal dialysis in the context of Covid is that it requires putting a catheter in a patient’s abdomen. That makes it difficult to use in those with failing lungs who need proning, a technique in which patients are rolled onto their stomach to help them take in oxygen. Some hospitals, including Montefiore, are placing the catheter toward the patient’s side to help with the problem.

Some hospitals are also struggling to find enough nurses and technicians to provide dialysis, especially after some who were most skilled at providing the therapy fell sick with the virus themselves. “We did lose nurses to illness,” Dr. Murphy of Mount Sinai said. “We’re just getting some of those nurses back, but it’s been a challenge. We’ve exhausted every avenue that we have within the state with regards to being able to increase nursing.”

Doctors say they are wrestling with how to ensure that patients who require immediate care receive it while assessing whether others can wait.

“Now we have to think harder about whether or not that patient truly needs it and can we manage them medically without dialysis another day so we can provide dialysis to someone who more urgently needs dialysis,” Dr. Ross of Montefiore said. “Those are not decisions we like to make.”

Joseph Goldstein contributed reporting.

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Gretchen Whitmer Isn’t Backing Down

Westlake Legal Group 18whitmer-sub-facebookJumbo Gretchen Whitmer Isn’t Backing Down Whitmer, Gretchen Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Politics and Government Michigan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Conservatism (US Politics) Biden, Joseph R Jr

She is a first-term governor and rising star in the Democratic Party, a frequent critic of the Trump administration for its handling of the coronavirus health crisis and a prominent foil of the president’s in the heated debate over when to reopen the nation for business.

Now the governor, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, has also become a prime target in the growing partisan storm over stay-at-home orders during the outbreak, which was highlighted on Wednesday by a raucous protest at the state capital, followed by Mr. Trump’s call on Friday to his followers to “Liberate Michigan.’’

The debate over how soon to loosen restrictions on businesses and workers has moved from the hands of health experts to become an increasingly political fight over costs to the economy, which Mr. Trump sees as crucial to his re-election.

Ms. Whitmer, a potential vice-presidential pick, has stirred Republican fears that her growing popularity will help Democrats carry the battleground state of Michigan in November, whether or not she is on the ticket. “I think it’s impossible to look at this and not feel there’s a lot of partisanship going on as it relates to Governor Whitmer,’’ said Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat and Michigan’s senior senator.

The traffic-snarling protest on Wednesday that drew a few thousand people to Lansing, Mich., including many flying Tea Party flags and Trump 2020 flags, was nominally called to oppose Ms. Whitmer’s latest stay-at-home order, one of the strictest in the nation. But the gathering, like similar ones held in the electoral battleground states of Ohio, Minnesota and North Carolina, was also the clearest sign yet of a simmering ideological movement on the right resisting government mandates over the virus.

“It felt a lot more like a political rally than a statement about the stay-home order,’’ Ms. Whitmer said in an interview the next day.

Mr. Trump has been insulting and condescending toward Ms. Whitmer, calling her “Half Whitmer” and “the woman in Michigan.” Asked on Thursday at the White House if the protesters in Michigan should listen to their governor, Mr. Trump replied: “I think they listen to me. They seem to be protesters that like me and respect this opinion.”

On Friday, he kept up the pressure, tweeting “Liberate Michigan’’ along with similar tweets for Virginia and Minnesota, which also have Democratic governors. His tweets came moments after a Fox News broadcast of protesters in state capitals violating social-distancing rules.

But unlike those two other Democratic governors, Ms. Whitmer is a Republican target because, among other reasons, she is in widely seen as in contention to be Joseph R. Biden’s running mate this fall.

In the interview, Ms. Whitmer said she has spoken recently with Mr. Biden about managing the pandemic.

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“He’s called to check in a few times just to see what’s going on in Michigan, to ask thoughtful questions about what we need, but you know, we haven’t had that conversation,’’ she said, referring to Mr. Biden’s hunt for a vice-presidential candidate.

Asked if she thought she was prepared to be vice president, Ms. Whitmer, a former Democratic leader of the State Senate, who was known for her careful political timing under Republican majorities, deflected.

“Honestly every ounce of energy I have is being put into protecting people and saving lives in Michigan,’’ she said. “I’m not thinking about politics. I’m not. I don’t have energy for any of that right now.’’

The protests at state capitals in recent days had the feel of early Tea Party rallies in 2009, with far-right conservatives taking a lead role and more cautious elected Republicans keeping their distance. While polling shows that overwhelming majorities of voters are chiefly concerned about the public health threat, it also indicates that the most conservative Americans are more likely to be irked by the idea that their local economy might stay closed for a long time.

In a survey released Thursday by the Pew Research Center, very conservative Americans were twice as likely as others to worry that businesses would reopen too slowly. Yet very conservative voters were also unlikely to be too concerned about the virus’s economic impact. A Fox News poll out last week found that the most conservative voters tended to express less worry than others that the shutdown could send the economy into recession.

These ideas may seem hard to square, but the rhetoric of protest organizers and hard-line media personalities provides at least a partial explanation: very conservative voters are more likely to allude to a sense of outrage over having their public conduct restricted, rather than caution about the economic implications of the shutdown.

John Anzalone, Ms. Whitmer’s pollster and a Michigan native, said the protests were not “reflective of real people” in a state where most are more worried that they or a family member will get sick than the they are about the economic impact of stay-at-home orders.

But Mr. Anzalone said the right would only grow louder the longer the restrictions are in place. “She is reflective of the pressure other governors are going to get,” he said.

In Michigan, the state with the third-highest number of deaths from Covid-19, Ms. Whitmer imposed some of the country’s most severe restrictions on April 9, including a ban on travel to vacation homes and the sale in large stores of paint, garden supplies and furniture.

Her order was mocked on social media with posts of seed aisles cordoned off, criticisms that morphed into misinformation that was amplified by national Republican figures, including Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Republican lawmakers in Michigan, who had backed an earlier, less restrictive executive order, blasted the governor. They moved to strip Ms. Whitmer’s power to declare a state of emergency under a 1945 law.

“Here’s my message today: OUR Governor IS DESTROYING OUR HEALTH BY KILLING OUR LIVELIHOODS!” the State Senate majority leader, Mike Shirkey, tweeted this month.

On Monday, the governor accused the DeVos family, a wealthy and powerful force in Michigan Republican politics, of a role in the protest at the Capitol. Without naming Betsy DeVos, President Trump’s education secretary, Ms. Whitmer said it was “really inappropriate for a sitting member of the United States president’s cabinet to be waging political attacks on any governor, but obviously me here at home.”

One of the named hosts of the protest was the Michigan Freedom Fund, a conservative group with ties to the DeVos family. Its executive director, Tony Daunt, said the group’s only role was to promote the event on Facebook, at a cost of $250 to be listed as a co-host.

Mr. Daunt said Ms. Whitmer’s initial, less restrictive stay-at-home orders in March had bipartisan support, but she lost credibility with her tighter restrictions, which he called “dismissive” of people’s concerns about lost livelihoods.

Her frequent appearances on national TV, including the “Daily Show” with Trevor Noah and the Rachel Maddow show on MSNBC on Thursday, also set off conservatives. Mr. Daunt accused Ms. Whitmer of putting more “focus on the Biden veepstakes, as opposed to handling the crisis here in our own backyard.”

The governor called the charge “baloney,’’ defending her television appearances as chances to educate viewers about the virus, which attract offers of help for Michigan. “You know what, it would be wrong not to do everything I could on both those fronts,’’ she said. But even some Democrats in the state have raised an eyebrow at her ubiquity on national television.

Few other states outside the northeast have been as hard hit by the virus as Michigan, which recorded 2,226 deaths as of Friday, and where the intersection of race, presidential politics and Ms. Whitmer’s vice-presidential prospects have turned the perennial battleground into a political tinderbox.

With the outbreak concentrated in heavily black and Democratic Detroit, the virus was already threatening to exacerbate the widening political divide between rural and urban Michigan. For decades, Democrats enjoyed strength with working-class whites in rural Michigan. But as in much of the country, those voters have drifted to the G.O.P. over the last decade. Now, even when Democrats win statewide, as they did when Ms. Whitmer succeeded a Republican in 2018, they do so by piling up large margins in metropolitan areas and losing many of the less-populated counties where they once were strong.

And the images of nearly all-white protesters demanding the governor relax restrictions while hoisting Trump signs and Confederate battle flags, as the virus disproportionately impacts Michigan’s black residents, will only further cleave the state.

Less noticed is another flash point. A number of white Michiganders — many of them affluent but some firmly in the middle-class — have summer homes “up north,” as the sprawling upper tier of the state’s lower peninsula is called. Ms. Whitmer’s order that people not travel between their residences — meant to protect rural towns and rural hospitals from being overwhelmed with the virus — has particularly inflamed those state residents eager to get to their cottages.

Of course, for the heavily black work force in and around Detroit that can’t retreat to a vacation home, such an inconvenience is trifling by comparison. Many of these workers plays critical roles running the region’s vitally needed grocery stores, pharmacies and busses.

“Black people’s lives haven’t changed in many ways because everyday was always a grind to survive,” said Adam Hollier, a state senator from Detroit, adding that “grocery store clerk, home health care, bus drivers, sanitation, custodial staff — the people who are often deemed most replaceable are the ones we actually can’t live without.”

Susan Beachy contributed research.

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The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead

The coronavirus is spreading from America’s biggest cities to its suburbs, and has begun encroaching on the nation’s rural regions. The virus is believed to have infected millions of citizens and has killed more than 32,000.

Yet President Trump this week proposed guidelines for reopening the economy and suggested that a swath of the United States would soon resume something resembling normalcy. For weeks now, the administration’s view of the crisis and our future has been rosier than that of its own medical advisers, and of scientists generally.

In truth, it is not clear to anyone where this crisis is leading us. More than 20 experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history shared their thoughts on the future during in-depth interviews. When can we emerge from our homes? How long, realistically, before we have a treatment or vaccine? How will we keep the virus at bay?

Some felt that American ingenuity, once fully engaged, might well produce advances to ease the burdens. The path forward depends on factors that are certainly difficult but doable, they said: a carefully staggered approach to reopening, widespread testing and surveillance, a treatment that works, adequate resources for health care providers — and eventually an effective vaccine.

Still, it was impossible to avoid gloomy forecasts for the next year. The scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings — that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full — is a fantasy, most experts said.

“We face a doleful future,” said Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg, a former president of the National Academy of Medicine.

He and others foresaw an unhappy population trapped indoors for months, with the most vulnerable possibly quarantined for far longer. They worried that a vaccine would initially elude scientists, that weary citizens would abandon restrictions despite the risks, that the virus would be with us from now on.

“My optimistic side says the virus will ease off in the summer and a vaccine will arrive like the cavalry,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University medical school. “But I’m learning to guard against my essentially optimistic nature.”

Most experts believed that once the crisis was over, the nation and its economy would revive quickly. But there would be no escaping a period of intense pain.

Exactly how the pandemic will end depends in part on medical advances still to come. It will also depend on how individual Americans behave in the interim. If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us.

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Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, is arguably the leading cause of death in the United States right now. The virus has killed more than 1,800 Americans almost every day since April 7, and the official toll may be an undercount.

By comparison, heart disease typically kills 1,774 Americans a day, and cancer kills 1,641.

Yes, the coronavirus curves are plateauing. There are fewer hospital admissions in New York, the center of the epidemic, and fewer Covid-19 patients in I.C.U.s. The daily death toll is still grim, but no longer rising.

The epidemiological model often cited by the White House, which was produced by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, originally predicted 100,000 to 240,000 deaths by midsummer. Now that figure is 60,000.

While this is encouraging news, it masks some significant concerns. The institute’s projection runs through Aug. 4, describing only the first wave of this epidemic. Without a vaccine, the virus is expected to circulate for years, and the death tally will rise over time.

The gains to date were achieved only by shutting down the country, a situation that cannot continue indefinitely. The White House’s “phased” plan for reopening will surely raise the death toll no matter how carefully it is executed. The best hope is that fatalities can be held to a minimum.

Reputable longer-term projections for how many Americans will die vary, but they are all grim. Various experts consulted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in March predicted that the virus eventually could reach 48 percent to 65 percent of all Americans, with a fatality rate just under 1 percent, and would kill up to 1.7 million of them if nothing were done to stop the spread.

A model by researchers at Imperial College London cited by the president on March 30 predicted 2.2 million deaths in the United States by September under the same circumstances.

By comparison, about 420,000 Americans died in World War II.

The limited data from China are even more discouraging. Its epidemic has been halted — for the moment — and virtually everyone infected in its first wave has died or recovered.

China has officially reported about 83,000 cases and 4,632 deaths, which is a fatality rate of over 5 percent. The Trump administration has questioned the figures but has not produced more accurate ones.

Fatality rates depend heavily on how overwhelmed hospitals get and what percentage of cases are tested. China’s estimated death rate was 17 percent in the first week of January, when Wuhan was in chaos, according to a Center for Evidence-Based Medicine report, but only 0.7 percent by late February.

In this country, hospitals in several cities, including New York, came to the brink of chaos. Officials in both Wuhan and New York had to revise their death counts upward this week when they realized that many people had died at home of Covid-19, strokes, heart attacks or other causes, or because ambulances never came for them.

In fast-moving epidemics, far more victims pour into hospitals or die at home than doctors can test; at the same time, the mildly ill or asymptomatic never get tested. Those two factors distort the true fatality rate in opposite ways. If you don’t know how many people are infected, you don’t know how deadly a virus is.

Only when tens of thousands of antibody tests are done will we know how many silent carriers there may be in the United States. The C.D.C. has suggested it might be 25 percent of those who test positive. Researchers in Iceland said it might be double that.

China is also revising its own estimates. In February, a major study concluded that only 1 percent of cases in Wuhan were asymptomatic. New research says perhaps 60 percent were. Our knowledge gaps are still wide enough to make epidemiologists weep.

“All models are just models,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, science adviser to the White House coronavirus task force, has said. “When you get new data, you change them.”

There may be good news buried in this inconsistency: The virus may also be mutating to cause fewer symptoms. In the movies, viruses become more deadly. In reality, they usually become less so, because asymptomatic strains reach more hosts. Even the 1918 Spanish flu virus eventually faded into the seasonal H1N1 flu.

At the moment, however, we do not know exactly how transmissible or lethal the virus is. But refrigerated trucks parked outside hospitals tell us all we need to know: It is far worse than a bad flu season.

No one knows exactly what percentage of Americans have been infected so far — estimates have ranged from 3 percent to 10 percent — but it is likely a safe bet that at least 300 million of us are still vulnerable.

Until a vaccine or another protective measure emerges, there is no scenario, epidemiologists agreed, in which it is safe for that many people to suddenly come out of hiding. If Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks.

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Then the emergency rooms will get busy again.

“There’s this magical thinking saying, ‘We’re all going to hunker down for a while and then the vaccine we need will be available,’” said Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

In his wildly popular March 19 article in Medium, “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance,” Tomas Pueyo correctly predicted the national lockdown, which he called the hammer, and said it would lead to a new phase, which he called the dance, in which essential parts of the economy could reopen, including some schools and some factories with skeleton crews.

Every epidemiological model envisions something like the dance. Each assumes the virus will blossom every time too many hosts emerge and force another lockdown. Then the cycle repeats. On the models, the curves of rising and falling deaths resemble a row of shark teeth.

Surges are inevitable, the models predict, even when stadiums, churches, theaters, bars and restaurants remain closed, all travelers from abroad are quarantined for 14 days, and domestic travel is tightly restricted to prevent high-intensity areas from reinfecting low-intensity ones.

The tighter the restrictions, experts say, the fewer the deaths and the longer the periods between lockdowns. Most models assume states will eventually do widespread temperature checks, rapid testing and contact tracing, as is routine in Asia.

Even the “Opening Up America Again” guidelines Mr. Trump issued on Thursday have three levels of social distancing, and recommend that vulnerable Americans stay hidden. The plan endorses testing, isolation and contact tracing — but does not specify how these measures will be paid for, or how long it will take to put them in place.

On Friday, none of that stopped the president from contradicting his own message by sending out tweets encouraging protesters in Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia to fight their states’ shutdowns.

China did not allow Wuhan, Nanjing or other cities to reopen until intensive surveillance found zero new cases for 14 straight days, the virus’s incubation period. Compared with China or Italy, the United States is still a playground.

Americans can take domestic flights, drive where they want, and roam streets and parks. Despite restrictions, everyone seems to know someone discreetly arranging play dates for children, holding backyard barbecues or meeting people on dating apps.

Partly as a result, the country has seen up to 30,000 new case infections each day. “People need to realize that it’s not safe to play poker wearing bandannas,” Dr. Schaffner said.

Even with rigorous measures, Asian countries have had trouble keeping the virus under control.

China, which has reported about 100 new infections per day, recently closed all the country’s movie theaters again. Singapore has closed all schools and nonessential workplaces. South Korea is struggling; Japan recently declared a state of emergency.

Resolve to Save Lives, a public health advocacy group run by Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the former director of the C.D.C., has published detailed and strict criteria for when the economy can reopen and when it must be closed.

Reopening requires declining cases for 14 days, the tracing of 90 percent of contacts, an end to health care worker infections, recuperation places for mild cases and many other hard-to-reach goals.

“We need to reopen the faucet gradually, not allow the floodgates to reopen,” Dr. Frieden said. “This is a time to work to make that day come sooner.”

Imagine an America divided into two classes: those who have recovered from infection with the coronavirus and presumably have some immunity to it; and those who are still vulnerable.

“It will be a frightening schism,” Dr. David Nabarro, a World Health Organization special envoy on Covid-19, predicted. “Those with antibodies will be able to travel and work, and the rest will be discriminated against.”

Already, people with presumed immunity are very much in demand, asked to donate their blood for antibodies and doing risky medical jobs fearlessly.

Soon the government will have to invent a way to certify who is truly immune. A test for IgG antibodies, which are produced once immunity is established, would make sense, said Dr. Daniel R. Lucey, an expert on pandemics at Georgetown Law School. Many companies are working on them.

Dr. Fauci has said the White House was discussing certificates like those proposed in Germany. China uses cellphone QR codes linked to the owner’s personal details so others cannot borrow them.

The California adult-film industry pioneered a similar idea a decade ago. Actors use a cellphone app to prove they have tested H.I.V. negative in the last 14 days, and producers can verify the information on a password-protected website.

As Americans stuck in lockdown see their immune neighbors resuming their lives and perhaps even taking the jobs they lost, it is not hard to imagine the enormous temptation to join them through self-infection, experts predicted. Younger citizens in particular will calculate that risking a serious illness may still be better than impoverishment and isolation.

“My daughter, who is a Harvard economist, keeps telling me her age group needs to have Covid-19 parties to develop immunity and keep the economy going,” said Dr. Michele Barry, who directs the Center for Innovation in Global Health at Stanford University.

It has happened before. In the 1980s, Cuba successfully contained its small AIDS epidemic by brutally forcing everyone who tested positive into isolation camps. Inside, however, the residents had their own bungalows, food, medical care, salaries, theater troupes and art classes.

Dozens of Cuba’s homeless youths infected themselves through sex or blood injections to get in, said Dr. Jorge Pérez Ávila, an AIDS specialist who is Cuba’s version of Dr. Fauci. Many died before antiretroviral therapy was introduced.

It would be a gamble for American youth, too. The obese and immunocompromised are clearly at risk, but even slim, healthy young Americans have died of Covid-19.

The next two years will proceed in fits and starts, experts said. As more immune people get back to work, more of the economy will recover.

But if too many people get infected at once, new lockdowns will become inevitable. To avoid that, widespread testing will be imperative.

Dr. Fauci has said “the virus will tell us” when it’s safe. He means that once a national baseline of hundreds of thousands of daily tests is established across the nation, any viral spread can be spotted when the percentage of positive results rises.

Detecting rising fevers as they are mapped by Kinsa’s smart thermometers may give an earlier signal, Dr. Schaffner said.

But diagnostic testing has been troubled from the beginning. Despite assurances from the White House, doctors and patients continue to complain of delays and shortages.

To keep the virus in check, several experts insisted, the country also must start isolating all the ill — including mild cases.

In this country, patients who test positive are asked to stay in their homes but keep away from their families.

Television news has been filled with recuperating personalities like CNN’s Chris Cuomo, sweating alone in his basement while his wife left food atop the stairs, his children waved and the dogs hung back.

But even Mr. Cuomo ended up illustrating why the W.H.O. strongly opposes home isolation. On Wednesday, he revealed that his wife had the virus.

“If I was forced to select only one intervention, it would be the rapid isolation of all cases,” said Dr. Bruce Aylward, who led the W.H.O. observer team to China.

In China, anyone testing positive, no matter how mild their symptoms, was required to immediately enter an infirmary-style hospital — often set up in a gymnasium or community center outfitted with oxygen tanks and CT scanners.

There, they recuperated under the eyes of nurses. That reduced the risk to families, and being with other victims relieved some patients’ fears. Nurses even led dance and exercise classes to raise spirits, and help victims clear their lungs and keep their muscle tone.

Still, experts were divided on the idea of such wards. Dr. Fineberg co-wrote a New York Times Op-Ed article calling for mandatory but “humane quarantine processes.”

By contrast, Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, opposed the idea, saying: “I don’t trust our government to remove people from their families by force.”

Ultimately, suppressing a virus requires testing all the contacts of every known case. But the United States is far short of that goal.

Someone working in a restaurant or factory may have dozens or even hundreds of contacts. In China’s Sichuan Province, for example, each known case had an average of 45 contacts.

The C.D.C. has about 600 contact tracers and, until recently, state and local health departments employed about 1,600, mostly for tracing syphilis and tuberculosis cases.

China hired and trained 9,000 in Wuhan alone. Dr. Frieden recently estimated that the United States will need at least 300,000.

Even though limited human trials of three candidates — two here and one in China — have already begun, Dr. Fauci has repeatedly said that any effort to make a vaccine will take at least a year to 18 months.

All the experts familiar with vaccine production agreed that even that timeline was optimistic. Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccinologist at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, noted that the record is four years, for the mumps vaccine.

Researchers differed sharply over what should be done to speed the process. Modern biotechnology techniques using RNA or DNA platforms make it possible to develop candidate vaccines faster than ever before.

But clinical trials take time, in part because there is no way to rush the production of antibodies in the human body.

Also, for unclear reasons, some previous vaccine candidates against coronaviruses like SARS have triggered “antibody-dependent enhancement,” which makes recipients more susceptible to infection, rather than less. In the past, vaccines against H.I.V. and dengue have unexpectedly done the same.

A new vaccine is usually first tested in fewer than 100 young, healthy volunteers. If it appears safe and produces antibodies, thousands more volunteers — in this case, probably front-line workers at the highest risk — will get either it or a placebo in what is called a Phase 3 trial.

It is possible to speed up that process with “challenge trials.” Scientists vaccinate small numbers of volunteers, wait until they develop antibodies, and then “challenge” them with a deliberate infection to see if the vaccine protects them.

Challenge trials are used only when a disease is completely curable, such as malaria or typhoid fever. Normally, it is ethically unthinkable to challenge subjects with a disease with no cure, such as Covid-19.

But in these abnormal times, several experts argued that putting a few Americans at high risk for fast results could be more ethical than leaving millions at risk for years.

“Fewer get harmed if you do a challenge trial in a few people than if you do a Phase 3 trial in thousands,” said Dr. Lipsitch, who recently published a paper advocating challenge trials in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. Almost immediately, he said, he heard from volunteers.

Others were deeply uncomfortable with that idea. “I think it’s very unethical — but I can see how we might do it,” said Dr. Lucey.

The hidden danger of challenge trials, vaccinologists explained, is that they recruit too few volunteers to show whether a vaccine creates enhancement, since it may be a rare but dangerous problem.

“Challenge trials won’t give you an answer on safety,” said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. “It may be a big problem.”

Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a virologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, suggested an alternative strategy. Pick at least two vaccine candidates, briefly test them in humans and do challenge trials in monkeys. Start making the winner immediately, even while widening the human testing to look for hidden problems.

As arduous as testing a vaccine is, producing hundreds of millions of doses is even tougher, experts said.

Most American vaccine plants produce only about 5 million to 10 million doses a year, needed largely by the 4 million babies born and 4 million people who reach age 65 annually, said Dr. R. Gordon Douglas Jr., a former president of Merck’s vaccine division.

But if a vaccine is invented, the United States could need 300 million doses — or 600 million if two shots are required. And just as many syringes.

“People have to start thinking big,” Dr. Douglas said. “With that volume, you’ve got to start cranking it out pretty soon.”

Flu vaccine plants are large, but those that grow the vaccines in chicken eggs are not suitable for modern vaccines, which grow in cell broths, he said.

European countries have plants but will need them for their own citizens. China has a large vaccine industry, and may be able to expand it over the coming months. It might be able to make vaccines for the United States, experts said. But captive customers must pay whatever price the seller asks, and the safety and efficacy standards of some Chinese companies are imperfect.

India and Brazil also have large vaccine industries. If the virus moves rapidly through their crowded populations, they may lose millions of citizens but achieve widespread herd immunity well before the United States does. In that case, they might have spare vaccine plant capacity.

Alternatively, suggested Arthur M. Silverstein, a retired medical historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, the government might take over and sterilize existing liquor or beer plants, which have large fermentation vats.

“Any distillery could be converted,” he said.

In the short term, experts were more optimistic about treatments than vaccines. Several felt that so-called convalescent serum could work.

The basic technique has been used for over a century: Blood is drawn from people who have recovered from a disease, then filtered to remove everything but the antibodies. The antibody-rich immunoglobulin is injected into patients.

The obstacle is that there are now relatively few survivors to harvest blood from.

In the pre-vaccine era, antibodies were “farmed” in horses and sheep. But that process was hard to keep sterile, and animal proteins sometimes triggered allergic reactions.

The modern alternative is monoclonal antibodies. These treatment regimens, which recently came very close to conquering the Ebola epidemic in eastern Congo, are the most likely short-term game changer, experts said.

The most effective antibodies are chosen, and the genes that produce them are spliced into a benign virus that will grow in a cellular broth.

But, as with vaccines, growing and purifying monoclonal antibodies takes time. In theory, with enough production, they could be used not just to save lives but to protect front-line workers.

Antibodies can last for weeks before breaking down — how long depends on many factors, Dr. Silverstein noted — and they cannot kill virus that is already hidden inside cells.

Having a daily preventive pill would be an even better solution, because pills can be synthesized in factories far faster than vaccines or antibodies can be grown and purified.

But even if one were invented, production would have to ramp up until it was as ubiquitous as aspirin, so 300 million Americans could take it daily.

Mr. Trump has mentioned hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin so often that his news conferences sound like infomercials. But all the experts agreed with Dr. Fauci that no decision should be made until clinical trials are completed.

Some recalled that in the 1950s inadequate testing of thalidomide caused thousands of children to be born with malformed limbs. More than one hydroxychloroquine study has been halted after patients who got high doses developed abnormal heart rhythms.

“I doubt anyone will tolerate high doses, and there are vision issues if it accumulates,” Dr. Barry said. “But it would be interesting to see if it could work as a PrEP-like drug,” she added, referring to pills used to prevent H.I.V.

Others were harsher, especially about Mr. Trump’s idea of combining a chloroquine with azithromycin.

“It’s total nonsense,” said Dr. Luciana Borio, a former director of medical and biodefense preparedness at the National Security Council. “I told my family, if I get Covid, do not give me this combo.”

Chloroquine might protect patients hospitalized with pneumonia against lethal cytokine storms because it damps down immune reactions, several doctors said.

That does not, however, make it useful for preventing infections, as Mr. Trump has implied it would be, because it has no known antiviral properties.

Several antivirals, including remdesivir, favipiravir and baloxavir, are being tested again the coronavirus; the latter two are flu drugs.

Trials of various combinations in China are set to issue results by next month, but they will be small and possibly inconclusive because doctors there ran out of patients to test. End dates for most trials in the United States are not yet set.

Previously unthinkable societal changes have taken place already. Schools and business have closed in every state, and tens of millions have applied for unemployment. Taxes and mortgage payments are delayed, and foreclosures forbidden.

Stimulus checks, intended to offset the crisis, began landing in checking accounts this week, making much of America, temporarily, a welfare state. Food banks are opening across the country, and huge lines have formed.

A public health crisis of this magnitude requires international cooperation on a scale not seen in decades. Yet Mr. Trump is moving to defund the W.H.O., the only organization capable of coordinating such a response.

And he spent most of this year antagonizing China, which now has the world’s most powerful functioning economy and may become the dominant supplier of drugs and vaccines. China has used the pandemic to extend its global influence, and says it has sent medical gear and equipment to nearly 120 countries.

A major recipient is the United States, through Project Airbridge, an air-cargo operation overseen by Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

This is not a world in which “America First” is a viable strategy, several experts noted.

“If President Trump cares about stepping up the public health efforts here, he should look for avenues to collaborate with China and stop the insults,” said Nicholas Mulder, an economic historian at Cornell University. He has called Mr. Kushner’s project “Lend-Lease in reverse,” a reference to American military aid to other countries during World War II.

Dr. Osterholm was even blunter. “If we alienate the Chinese with our rhetoric, I think it will come back to bite us,” he said.

“What if they come up with the first vaccine? They have a choice about who they sell it to. Are we top of the list? Why would we be?”

Once the pandemic has passed, the national recovery may be swift. The economy rebounded after both world wars, Dr. Mulder noted.

The psychological fallout will be harder to gauge. The isolation and poverty caused by a long shutdown may drive up rates of domestic abuse, depression and suicide.

Even political perspectives may shift. Initially, the virus heavily hit Democratic cities like Seattle, New York and Detroit. But as it spreads through the country, it will spare no one.

Even voters in Republican-leaning states who do not blame Mr. Trump for America’s lack of preparedness or for limiting access to health insurance may change their minds if they see friends and relatives die.

In one of the most provocative analyses in his follow-up article, “Coronavirus: Out of Many, One,” Mr. Pueyo analyzed Medicare and census data on age and obesity in states that recently resisted shutdowns and counties that voted Republican in 2016.

He calculated that those voters could be 30 percent more likely to die of the virus.

In the periods after both wars, Dr. Mulder noted, society and incomes became more equal. Funds created for veterans’ and widows’ pensions led to social safety nets, measures like the G.I. Bill and V.A. home loans were adopted, unions grew stronger, and tax benefits for the wealthy withered.

If a vaccine saves lives, many Americans may become less suspicious of conventional medicine and more accepting of science in general — including climate change, experts said.

The blue skies that have shone above American cities during this lockdown era could even become permanent.

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Coronavirus Live Updates: Texas Protests to Call for a Reopening

Here’s what you need to know:

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_171690876_a60ec1be-7946-44e7-9c77-2ae74de461b8-articleLarge Coronavirus Live Updates: Texas Protests to Call for a Reopening Trump, Donald J Texas New York State Fauci, Anthony S Cuomo, Andrew M Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) California Austin (Tex) Abbott, Gregory W (1957- )
Credit…Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune, via Associated Press

Texans plan to join nationwide protests even as their governor lifts restrictions.

Rejecting social distancing restrictions and embracing the tacit approval of President Trump, protesters in Texas are preparing to converge on the steps of the Capitol building in Austin on Saturday and call for the reopening of the state and the country.

The gathering would be a public act of defiance of orders imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus and the latest in a wave of similar protests this week from Michigan to North Carolina and Kentucky to California.

By merely assembling, the conservative activists and supporters of Mr. Trump who are expected to participate in the “You Can’t Close America” rally in Austin would be in violation of state and local stay-at-home orders, just as protesters in Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota were when they took their complaints to their governors this week.

The Texas Department of Public Safety, which secures the Capitol grounds, said in a statement that it asks the public to comply with the social distancing guidelines found in the orders signed by Gov. Greg Abbott and in recommendations issued by federal health officials. “Our officers will take appropriate enforcement action — as with any other protest — should the situation warrant such action,” the statement read.

The urgency of the rally was dampened somewhat on Friday by Mr. Abbott, who announced that he would do precisely what the protesters demanded: reopen Texas.

A Republican, Mr. Abbott said he was starting a “phased-in” approach to reopen the state economy, including lifting some restrictions in the coming days on non-virus medical procedures, retail shopping and public access to state parks.

The rally on the Capitol steps was organized by Owen Shroyer, the host of a show on Infowars, the website headquartered in Austin that was founded by Alex Jones and traffics in conspiracy theories. Mr. Shroyer told his Infowars audience this week that the coronavirus was part of a scheme by the Chinese Communist Party and the “Deep State” to undermine Mr. Trump, and that reports of overwhelmed hospitals like those in New York were “propaganda.”

President Trump on Friday openly encouraged right-wing protests like the planned event in Texas, posting a series of all-caps tweets in which he declared, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” and “LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” — two states whose Democratic governors have imposed strict social distancing restrictions. Mr. Trump also lashed out at Virginia, where the state’s Democratic governor and legislature have pushed for strict gun control measures.

The tweets alarmed some governors. Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington said that the tweets “encourage illegal and dangerous acts” and risked putting Mr. Trump’s supporters — and others — at risk of contracting the virus.

“His unhinged rantings and calls for people to ‘liberate’ states could also lead to violence,” Mr. Inslee said.

Testing needs to triple for the U.S. to reopen safely, researchers say.

As some governors consider easing social distancing restrictions, new estimates by researchers at Harvard University suggest that the United States cannot safely reopen unless it conducts more than three times the number of coronavirus tests it is currently administering over the next month.

An average of 146,000 people per day have been tested for the coronavirus nationally so far this month, according to the COVID Tracking Project, which on Friday reported 3.6 million total tests across the country. To reopen the United States by mid-May, the number of daily tests performed between now and then should be 500,000 to 700,000, according to the Harvard estimates.

That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.

“If you have a very high positive rate, it means that there are probably a good number of people out there who have the disease who you haven’t tested,” said Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “You want to drive the positive rate down, because the fundamental element of keeping our economy open is making sure you’re identifying as many infected people as possible and isolating them.”

One in three jobs held by women is essential, putting them on the pandemic’s front lines.

From the cashier to the emergency room nurse to the drugstore pharmacist to the home health aide taking the bus to check on her older client, the soldier on the front lines of the current national emergency is most likely a woman.

One in three jobs held by women has been designated as essential, according to a New York Times analysis of census data crossed with the federal government’s essential worker guidelines. Nonwhite women are more likely to be doing essential jobs than anyone else.

The work they do has often been underpaid and undervalued — an unseen labor force that keeps the country running and takes care of those most in need, whether or not there is a pandemic.

Women make up nearly nine out of 10 nurses and nursing assistants, most respiratory therapists, the majority of pharmacists and the overwhelming majority of pharmacy aides and technicians. More than two-thirds of the workers at grocery store checkouts and fast food counters are women.

Pollsters find an upside to the lockdown: people eager to take their calls.

As the coronavirus has swept across the country, it has stolen millions of jobs and thrust people everywhere into acute financial insecurity. It has also forced the majority of the population to shelter in place. But in one industry where rejection is a normal part of a day’s work, telephone polling, the people making the calls are finding that many people are suddenly willing, even grateful, to talk.

Many, in fact, wanted to keep talking — about their loneliness, about their sadness, about their fears for the future — even after the questions had stopped.

“People are dealing with anxiety, and they haven’t seen their family and friends,” said Ayala Mitchell, an interviewers for the Siena College Research Institute. “They just want to talk to someone.”

Executives at a number of firms across the country said in interviews that not only are more people willing to answer the phone to unknown callers these days, but that those who do agree to be interviewed are more likely to stay through the end of the conversation. This has led to an increase in productivity rates of roughly 25 percent, they said, and it also means that — in a moment of crisis and in the midst of a presidential election — a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think. And that means it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.

In Mississippi, the governor’s briefings add a folksy touch.

At his daily briefing one afternoon this week, Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi reported that the death toll in the state from the coronavirus had climbed. He reiterated just how eager he was to reopen businesses. He answered reporters’ questions about extending the shelter-in-place order and ramping up testing.

And then he wished dozens of state residents a very happy birthday.

There was Alex, Brianna, Asher and Billy. There was more than one sweet 16, and others who ranged in age from preschoolers to an 83-year-old. Mr. Reeves pointed out that one boy was a green belt in karate. “Keep working hard,” the governor said. “You’ll be a black belt before you know it.”

It was certainly an abrupt turn, swerving from delivering grim news about a pandemic and spreading economic pain to making birthday shout-outs like a drive-time D.J. But the announcements — and televised briefings from government officials, from the White House on down — have grown into a defining element of the pandemic.

Regular briefings have helped transform Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a veteran civil servant and infectious disease expert, into a household name. The graphics appearing beside Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York during his briefings have spawned instant Twitter memes.

In Mississippi, the addition of birthday greetings has resonated as so many have found comfort from even the tiniest of gestures, anything that could be held up as evidence of a sense of togetherness while legally mandated to stay apart.

The decision to include birthdays in the briefings was made about a week ago, as some started asking on social media whether Mr. Reeves could mention their children. A first-term governor, Mr. Reeves also wanted to add some bright moments and buoy people’s spirits, including his own: he noted in a recent briefing that he had just marked his 90th day in office, a period that has already included deadly tornadoes; the Pearl River’s swelling and flooding Jackson, the state capital; and a crisis in state prisons sparked by violence and decrepit conditions.

“It brightens my day,” Mr. Reeves said of the birthday wishes in a quick phone call after a recent briefing. So far, more than 3,200 people have submitted requests for birthday shout-outs.

The how, when, what and why on masks.

Starting at 8 p.m. on Friday, people in New York must wear masks or other coverings when social distancing is not possible, including on mass transit, to prevent the spread of the virus. But everyone should be wearing masks when out in public, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Here’s everything you need to know.

Reporting was contributed by Manny Fernandez, Karen Barrow, Michael D. Shear, Robert Gebeloff, Sarah Lyall, Rick Rojas, Campbell Robertson and Giovanni Russonello.

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Bridging Divides, Most Agree on Economic Outlook: It’s Bleak

Westlake Legal Group 18virus-survey2-facebookJumbo Bridging Divides, Most Agree on Economic Outlook: It’s Bleak United States Economy Trump, Donald J SurveyMonkey Shutdowns (Institutional) Presidential Election of 2020 Polls and Public Opinion Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Consumer Confidence (Economic Indicator)

The coronavirus pandemic has united Americans of different races and income levels in deep pessimism about the economy, in contrast to the widely divergent views that prevailed before the crisis.

Highly paid or less so, black or white, investors in the stock market or not, Americans largely expect a poor or mixed performance from the economy in the coming year and prolonged damage over the next five years, according to a poll for The New York Times by the online research firm SurveyMonkey.

Those groups also roundly support the stringent limits on economic activity that state and local officials have imposed to slow the spread of the virus and minimize its death toll.

Many who have lost low-income jobs doubt that they will regain employment any time soon. But those with high incomes also expect economic troubles to persist, even though they are far less likely to have lost jobs or hours, or to be worried about losing them.

One group remains a relative holdout in expressing faith that the economy will experience continuous good times over the next five years and that their own families will be better off a year from now: conservative Republicans. They are also far more likely to oppose the restrictions on activity that public officials have put in place, saying they have gone too far.

Those divides hint at what could be an important chasm as President Trump continues to pressure local officials to get back to business more quickly, with the presidential election approaching in the fall.

Nearly six in 10 Americans expect “widespread unemployment or depression” over the next five years, according to The Times survey, conducted April 6-12. That is up from four in 10 in February, and by far the largest share in the more than three years the survey has been conducted.

Overall consumer confidence plummeted this month to its lowest level on record, the survey found. Longer-running surveys from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show similarly steep drops.

That mounting pessimism, even among people not directly affected by the virus, highlights the hurdles facing the economy once businesses begin to reopen. If people are worried about losing their jobs, or doubt their ability to find news ones, they will be reluctant to spend, prolonging the economic malaise even if the health threat has passed.

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The Times survey makes clear the severity of the damage already done. Nearly 10 percent of respondents who are not retired said they had lost a job because of the pandemic, and more than 30 percent had seen their hours cut. Over all, 33 percent of Americans of all ages said they were worse off financially than they were a year ago, up from 20 percent a month earlier.

Among those who have lost jobs, only 35 percent think they are likely to find work in the next month. Among those who are still working, 42 percent are worried about losing their jobs soon.

The recent decline in confidence cuts across political and ideological categories, separating it from other recent periods where sentiment dipped among Democrats but not Republicans. Now, moderate Republicans have turned pessimistic, even as more conservative Republicans expect the economy to fare well in coming years.

Republicans, not surprisingly, are much more likely to give Mr. Trump credit for his handling of the crisis. Some 91 percent of Republicans said they approved of Mr. Trump’s response, compared with 51 percent of independents and 22 percent of Democrats.

Across all party lines, about half of those surveyed said they approved of Congress’s response, and nearly three-quarters backed their own governor’s handling of the crisis.

When the poll was conducted, there was widespread support for the business shutdowns adopted in response to the virus. More than 80 percent of those surveyed said the shutdowns had been the right approach or should go even further.

But that was before recent protests over shutdowns in Michigan and other states, and before Mr. Trump’s latest steps toward reviving the economy. There are hints that patience, at least among Republicans, could be tenuous: 29 percent of Republicans said the shutdowns had gone too far, compared with 8 percent of Democrats.

That gap might be explained at least partly by geography. So far, the areas hit hardest by the pandemic have primarily been large coastal cities that tend to vote for Democrats. Smaller cities and rural areas in the middle of the country have, with exceptions, had few fewer coronavirus cases. Where there have been more cases, Republicans generally voiced greater support for the economic shutdown.

The pandemic and its economic damage have cut across industries, regions and demographic groups. But the damage has not been evenly spread.

Black workers are twice as likely as white ones to report losing their jobs because of the crisis. Hispanic workers, and low-income workers of all races and ethnicities, likewise report significantly higher rates of job loss.

Among people who still have jobs, black and Hispanic workers are much less likely to report that they are working from home — meaning they are risking exposure to the virus by continuing to work.

Those gaps could become even wider as economic activity increases. Black and Hispanic workers are disproportionately represented in service-sector jobs that cannot be done from home and do not offer paid sick leave or other benefits. That means they are more likely to have to return to work quickly, even as white-collar workers are able to wait for the spread of the virus to be more fully controlled.

About the Survey: The data in this article came from an online survey of 5,167 adults conducted by the polling firm SurveyMonkey from April 6 to April 12. The company selected respondents at random from the nearly three million people who take surveys on its platform each day. Responses were weighted to match the demographic profile of the population of the United States. The survey has a modeled error estimate (similar to a margin of error in a standard telephone poll) of plus or minus 2 percentage points, so differences of less than that amount are statistically insignificant.

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Trump Fans Protest Against Governors Who Have Imposed Virus Restrictions

Westlake Legal Group trump-fans-protest-against-governors-who-have-imposed-virus-restrictions Trump Fans Protest Against Governors Who Have Imposed Virus Restrictions United States Politics and Government twitter Trump, Donald J Shutdowns (Institutional) Republican Party Fox News Channel Federal-State Relations (US) DeWine, Mike Demonstrations, Protests and Riots Democratic Party Cuomo, Andrew M Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Westlake Legal Group 17dc-virus-trump2-facebookJumbo Trump Fans Protest Against Governors Who Have Imposed Virus Restrictions United States Politics and Government twitter Trump, Donald J Shutdowns (Institutional) Republican Party Fox News Channel Federal-State Relations (US) DeWine, Mike Demonstrations, Protests and Riots Democratic Party Cuomo, Andrew M Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday openly encouraged right-wing protests of social distancing restrictions in states with stay-at-home orders, a day after announcing guidelines for how the nation’s governors should carry out an orderly reopening of their communities on their own timetables.

In a series of all-caps tweets that started two minutes after a Fox News report on the protesters, the president declared, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” and “LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” — two states whose Democratic governors have imposed strict social distancing restrictions. He also lashed out at Virginia, where the state’s Democratic governor and legislature have pushed for strict gun control measures, saying: “LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege!”

His stark departure from the more bipartisan tone of his announcement on Thursday night suggested Mr. Trump was ceding any semblance of national leadership on the pandemic, and choosing instead to divide the country by playing to his political base.

Echoed across the internet and on cable television by conservative pundits and ultraright conspiracy theorists, his tweets were a remarkable example of a president egging on demonstrators and helping to stoke an angry fervor that in its anti-government rhetoric was eerily reminiscent of the birth of the Tea Party movement a decade ago.

In another series of tweets on Friday, the president returned again to the kind of rank partisanship that has characterized much of his time in office, rekindling a fight with Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York, only days after heaping praise on him, by saying that the state’s chief executive should “spend more time ‘doing’ and less time ‘complaining.’”

The retort came after Mr. Cuomo said that New York could not fully reopen its economy without more widespread testing and help from the federal government. Even before Mr. Cuomo had finished speaking during his televised daily briefing, Mr. Trump lashed out, tweeting, “We built you thousands of hospital beds that you didn’t need or use, gave large numbers of Ventilators that you should have had, and helped you with testing that you should be doing.” He said Mr. Cuomo owed the federal government a thank-you.

“First of all, if he’s sitting home watching TV, maybe he should get up and go to work, right?” Mr. Cuomo responded in real time. “Second, let’s keep emotion and politics out of this, and personal ego if we can. Because this is about the people.”

The governor added that he had already repeatedly thanked the federal government for its aid.

“I don’t know what I’m supposed to do — send a bouquet of flowers?” Mr. Cuomo asked.

In unveiling guidelines on Thursday evening at the White House that governors could use to decide when it was safe to phase out restrictions, Mr. Trump had taken a more measured tone, emphasizing that “we are not opening all at once, but one careful step at a time.”

The guidelines recommended lifting the restrictions in three phases once states experience 14 days in which testing is available, the number of cases decline and hospitals are not overwhelmed. In Phase 1, some businesses could open but schools would remain closed. In Phase 2, more people could return to work while continuing social distancing. And by Phase 3, most of American life could return to something close to normal.

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But the president’s message to governors that “you’re going to call your own shots” quickly gave way to a more strident one by Friday.

Mr. Trump’s call for liberation from social distancing rules followed protests around the country as protesters — many wearing red “Make America Great Again” hats — congregated in packed groups around state capitols to demand that restrictions be immediately lifted and to demonize their Democratic governors.

In Michigan, protesters waved banners in support of Mr. Trump and protested Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by chanting, “Lock her up.” In St. Paul, Minn., a group calling itself “Liberate Minnesota” rallied against stay-at-home orders in front of the home of Gov. Tim Walz, demanding he “end this lockdown!” In Columbus, Ohio, protesters crowded closely together as they pressed up against the doors of the state’s Capitol.

Speaking Friday evening at the White House, the president expressed sympathy for the protesters for having to endure what he called “too tough” social distancing orders in their states, and he dismissed concerns that they could spread the virus by holding demonstrations.

“They seem to be very responsible people to me,” he said.

By embracing the backlash to the coronavirus restrictions, Mr. Trump is tapping into a powerful well of political energy as he seeks re-election this year. The president is also trying to deflect anger about his response to the virus away from him and toward Democratic governors, who he hopes will shoulder the blame for keeping the restrictions in place and for any deaths that occur after states reopen.

The pressure to reopen the economy comes amid skyrocketing joblessness claims and an unemployment rate that is approaching 17 percent, higher than any mark since the Great Depression. On Friday, several governors began responding to that pressure by taking their first, tentative steps toward loosening the rules about work, school and socializing.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, said that by next Friday all retail establishments, not just grocery stores, could operate what he called “retail to go” services in which customers pick up items or have items delivered, but do not physically go inside to shop.

Parks will reopen on Monday, but visitors will be required to wear face coverings and follow social distancing rules, while schools would remain closed for in-person instruction for the rest of the school year.

“Opening Texas must occur in stages,” Mr. Abbott said.

In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine, another Republican, said that as businesses reopen, they will have to enforce six-foot distancing, mask-wearing, and staggered arrival and lunch times. He said there would be more barriers at workplaces, more employees wearing gloves and more frequent cleaning of surfaces. Employees might have their temperatures checked and sent home if they show any symptoms.

Elsewhere, cities and states and corporations took other steps.

In Florida, the mayor of Jacksonville announced that beaches and parks would reopen Friday, as long as visitors practiced social distancing. In Washington State, where the virus first emerged and shut down life for weeks, Boeing announced plans to resume commercial airplane production and bring about 27,000 employees back to work, many as soon as next week.

In Vermont, the governor gave the green light to property managers, real estate agents and some construction crews to return to work, but said they must comply with social distancing and mask-wearing. In Minnesota, golf courses and driving ranges could reopen Saturday morning, along with bait shops, shooting ranges and game farms. But campgrounds, recreational equipment rentals, charter boats and guided fishing will remain closed.

In the hours after the president’s tweets, several Democratic governors joined Mr. Cuomo in expressing their exasperation with Mr. Trump.

Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington, who ran an unsuccessful bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, said Mr. Trump’s tweets “encourage illegal and dangerous acts” and said the president was “putting millions of people in danger of contracting Covid-19.”

Mr. Inslee added: “His unhinged rantings and calls for people to ‘liberate’ states could also lead to violence. We’ve seen it before.”

And in Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said she hoped the president’s comments would not incite more protests.

“There is a lot of anxiety,” she said. “The most important thing that anyone with a platform can do is try to use that platform to tell people, ‘We are going to get through this.’”

The latest escalation in the back-and-forth between Mr. Trump and the nation’s governors underscored the high stakes as they grapple with how to respond to the pandemic.

Governors of both parties have drawn praise for their decisive actions and calm leadership in shutting down businesses and schools to protect public health, but the decision about when and how to reopen could prove far more politically perilous. Moving too soon comes with the risk of more cases and deaths, but moving too late means people’s livelihoods could be destroyed for good.

For Mr. Trump, the calculation is also perilous as he tries to mobilize his core supporters while abandoning once again his sporadic attempts at bipartisanship.

Openly supporting those who challenge the stay-at-home orders could help the president re-energize the coalition of conservative Republicans and working-class populists who agree with the anti-government sentiment that helped power Mr. Trump’s election victory in 2016.

Large majorities of the country — including Republicans — are concerned about the dangers of reopening the country too quickly. But among very conservative voters, 65 percent said they were more worried about reopening too slowly, according to a Pew Research Center poll released on Thursday.

Shaping their views has been Fox News, which has devoted extensive coverage to the protests that took place this week, reminiscent of the way it provided a platform for Tea Party activists early in the Obama administration. For the past several days, the network has shown videos of the crowds gathered outside State Capitols and aired interviews with organizers who fumed at their governors.

Ms. Whitmer, in particular, has become a target of Fox hosts like Tucker Carlson, who has described her quarantine orders, which are among the most restrictive in the country, as “authoritarian.”

“I hope she loses her job because she certainly deserves it,” Mr. Carlson said.

Others, like Fox’s Laura Ingraham, have encouraged more demonstrations. Before Mr. Trump put out his “LIBERATE” message on Friday morning, Ms. Ingraham addressed a tweet to Virginians. “When will residents protest and reclaim their freedom?” she wrote.

Among those who have participated in the early resistance movement is Stephen Moore, an adviser to Mr. Trump’s Covid-19 economic recovery task force and a founder of a new group lobbying for a quick opening of the economy, Save Our Country.

In an interview on a little-viewed YouTube program called “Freedom on Tap,” first spotted by the progressive group True North Research, Mr. Moore said this week that he had been helping a group organize a protest in Wisconsin and arrange for legal costs that could be associated with mass gatherings during a safer-at-home order in the state.

“We need to be the Rosa Parks here,” he said, “and protest these government injustices.”

Mr. Trump is also providing support to some of the darkest corners of the internet, where far-right activists have encouraged the protesters to defy Democratic governors and demand that restrictions be lifted.

Owen Shroyer, a host on Infowars, a website that disseminates conspiracy theories, called this week for people to gather at a “You Can’t Close America” rally on the steps of the Texas Capitol in Austin in violation of a stay-at-home order.

After that announcement, Twitter — which has a policy that it will not tolerate posts that are “a clear call to action that could directly pose a risk to people’s health or well-being” — permanently suspended Mr. Shroyer’s account, though it said in a statement that he had violated “our platform manipulation and spam policy, specifically creating accounts to replace or mimic a suspended account.”

Michael D. Shear reported from Washington, and Sarah Mervosh from Canton, Ohio. Reporting was contributed by Emily Cochrane from Washington; Dionne Searcey, Jim Rutenberg, Jeremy W. Peters, Adeel Hassan and Michael Gold from New York; and Manny Fernandez from Houston.

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Michael Cohen Is Among Prisoners to Be Released Because of Virus

Westlake Legal Group michael-cohen-is-among-prisoners-to-be-released-because-of-virus Michael Cohen Is Among Prisoners to Be Released Because of Virus Trump, Donald J Quarantines Prisons and Prisoners Otisville Correctional Facility (Otisville, NY) Federal Bureau of Prisons Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cohen, Michael D (1966- ) Adler, Roger Bennet
Westlake Legal Group merlin_151337256_855e4958-3e1a-48bb-ad07-37cef7a89d93-facebookJumbo Michael Cohen Is Among Prisoners to Be Released Because of Virus Trump, Donald J Quarantines Prisons and Prisoners Otisville Correctional Facility (Otisville, NY) Federal Bureau of Prisons Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cohen, Michael D (1966- ) Adler, Roger Bennet

Michael D. Cohen, the disgraced former lawyer for President Trump, was among some of the inmates at a federal prison camp in upstate New York who were told they would be released into home confinement because of concerns about the spread of the coronavirus, several defense lawyers said on Friday.

The inmates were all serving sentences at the minimum-security camp, which is attached to a medium-security federal prison in Otisville, N.Y., about 75 miles northwest of New York City. The federal Bureau of Prisons did not immediately respond to questions about the reported plan to allow some prisoners there to serve their sentences at home under supervision.

Mr. Cohen is serving a three-year sentence for federal crimes. His lawyer, Roger B. Adler, said late Thursday that after two weeks in quarantine, Mr. Cohen would be granted release into home confinement by the Bureau of Prisons because of the virus risks.

Lawyers for at least six other inmates in the Otisville camp said their clients had also been informed they would be furloughed to lessen the possibility of them contracting the virus. Some were told they would finish their sentences under house arrest. Others were told that they might be required to return to the prison camp.

Mr. Cohen and the other inmates were informed they would be held in quarantine at Otisville’s medium-security prison for 14 days before being released into their homes, where they would continue to be under the supervision of federal probation officers, the lawyers said.

Last month, a federal judge in Manhattan had rejected a request by Mr. Cohen, 53, for such release after Mr. Cohen cited his health and the risk of exposure to the coronavirus in prison. His more recent request, made to the Bureau of Prisons, was successful, Mr. Adler said.

Mr. Cohen began serving his sentence last May at the minimum-security camp at the Federal Correctional Institution in Otisville. He had pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations, financial crimes and other offenses in connection with a scheme to pay hush money to buy the silence of two women who said they had affairs with Mr. Trump. The president has denied the affairs.

The Bureau of Prisons has said that more than 470 federal inmates and over 275 prison staff members have tested positive for the coronavirus nationwide, including at least 14 inmates and seven staff members at the camp in Otisville.

Michael Levenson contributed reporting.

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Trump Says States Can Start Reopening While Acknowledging the Decision Is Theirs

Westlake Legal Group trump-says-states-can-start-reopening-while-acknowledging-the-decision-is-theirs Trump Says States Can Start Reopening While Acknowledging the Decision Is Theirs Western States (US) United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J States (US) Southern States (US) Northeastern States (US) Newsom, Gavin Midwestern States (US) Inslee, Jay Governors (US) Fauci, Anthony S DeSantis, Ron Cuomo, Andrew M Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Westlake Legal Group 16dc-trump-virus-facebookJumbo Trump Says States Can Start Reopening While Acknowledging the Decision Is Theirs Western States (US) United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J States (US) Southern States (US) Northeastern States (US) Newsom, Gavin Midwestern States (US) Inslee, Jay Governors (US) Fauci, Anthony S DeSantis, Ron Cuomo, Andrew M Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

WASHINGTON — President Trump told the nation’s governors on Thursday that they could begin reopening businesses, restaurants and other elements of daily life by May 1 or earlier if they wanted to, abandoning his threat to use what he had claimed was his absolute authority to impose his will on them.

On a day when the nation’s death toll from the coronavirus increased by more than 2,000 for a total over 30,000, the president released a set of nonbinding guidelines that envisioned a slow return to work and school over weeks or months. Based on each state’s conditions, the guidelines in effect guarantee that any restoration of American society will take place on a patchwork basis rather than on a one-size-fits-all prescription from Washington that some of the governors had feared in recent days.

“We are not opening all at once, but one careful step at a time,” Mr. Trump told reporters during a briefing at the White House.

Mr. Trump essentially gave cover to mainly Republican governors of states in the South and West that have not been as hard hit by the pandemic to begin reopening sooner. The president, who has previously said that as many as 29 states could reopen soon, told governors on a conference call before his announcement that some of them were “in very, very good shape” and could move further and faster to resuming economic and social activities.

If they follow the guidelines, New York and other states in the Northeast, as well as states in the Midwest and West, that have seen large outbreaks would remain shuttered for weeks until new cases of the virus and death tolls fall and hospital capacity is restored.

The guidelines envision proceeding without the comprehensive testing program that many public health experts have sought and opened the president to criticism that in his eagerness to start rebuilding a cratered economy, he may have encouraged some states to move too quickly and leave themselves exposed to a second wave of the coronavirus.

“You’re going to call your own shots,” Mr. Trump told the governors, according to an audio recording provided to The New York Times. “You’re going to be calling the shots. We’ll be standing right alongside of you, and we’re going to get our country open and get it working. People want to get working.”

At the evening briefing, the president conceded that the choice of how and when to reopen the country would not be his. “If they need to remain closed,” he said, “we will allow them to do that.”

Mr. Trump’s choice of words amounted to a significant reversal only three days after he insisted that “the president of the United States calls the shots” and that he had the “total” authority to decide how and when the country would end widespread lockdowns. Several governors rebelled at the notion, defying Mr. Trump’s assertion of unilateral power and declaring that they would come to their own conclusions.

The president said a little more than three weeks ago that he wanted to reopen the country by Easter, April 12, then changed the date to May 1 before declaring that when to do it would be “the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make.”

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He has repeatedly lurched from one position to another as his administration has struggled to confront what he calls an “invisible enemy.”

For weeks, he played down the threat from the coronavirus, predicting it would “miraculously” disappear in warm weather. As the number of cases overwhelmed some hospitals, Mr. Trump blamed governors for failing to prepare, even as he claimed credit for federal help that was slow to arrive.

The federal guidelines, which recommend phased reopenings depending on case levels and hospital capacity, came as governors were already setting their own courses.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York announced that the state’s sweeping shutdown would last until at least May 15, while Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio said he planned to begin lifting restrictions on public activities starting May 1. Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin said residents must stay at home until May 26, and in Missouri, Kansas City and St. Louis County both extended similar orders.

A bipartisan group of governors from the Midwest that included Mr. DeWine and Mr. Evers announced the formation of a regional coalition to weigh next steps, which the governors said would be “fact-based” and “data-driven.” Other coalition members include Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Gov. Eric Holcomb of Indiana and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

States elsewhere in the country with fewer cases and smaller, more rural and more distant populations may take their cue from Mr. Trump and begin moving to lift restrictions.

The fitful movement toward reopening came as another 5.2 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits, bringing the total number of people put out of work in the past four weeks to a staggering 22 million. Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression only six months before an election, Mr. Trump has felt enormous pressure to get business restarted and put Americans back to work.

A federal loan program intended to help small businesses keep workers on their payrolls has proved woefully insufficient. The administration said Thursday that the Paycheck Protection Program had run out of money, leaving millions of businesses unable to apply for the loans while Congress struggled to reach a deal to replenish the funds.

The 18-page guidelines released by the president — titled, “Opening Up America Again” — urge states not to lift stay-at-home or travel restrictions until they reach a 14-day period in which the number of coronavirus cases is steadily declining, hospitals are not overwhelmed and robust testing is in place for health care workers and others.

“The dominating drive of this was to make sure this is done in the safest way possible,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the president’s coronavirus task force, who spoke at the White House briefing alongside Mr. Trump.

In states judged to be doing well enough to enter the first phase, schools would remain closed and people would still be urged to avoid socializing in groups of more than 10. But some large public places — including restaurants, movie theaters, sporting venues and places of worship — would be allowed to operate under strict physical distancing protocols. Elective surgeries could resume and gyms could reopen as long as they maintained physical distancing. Bars would remain closed.

In the second phase, which could begin after another two-week decline in the number of coronavirus cases, schools could reopen and people would be advised to avoid social gatherings of more than 50.

By the third phase, states with no evidence of a resurgence of infections would be able to resume unrestricted staffing of work sites, visits to hospitals and nursing homes, and the operation of large venues under limited social distancing protocols. Bars could reopen with increased standing room.

In addition to the guidelines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are expected to soon announce that the agency will hire hundreds of people to perform contact tracing as part of the push to allow the country to go back to work and school, according to a federal official.

Under the plan, the official said that the federal government would also help states pay for more medical personnel to help track the spread of the coronavirus by contacting people who test positive to see who they had contact with three or four days before they started showing symptoms.

Many public health experts have cautioned that hiring several hundred people for the entire country will be nowhere near enough to keep track of the virus as it spreads. Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former C.D.C. director, said there were estimates that the country would need to hire as many as 300,000 such workers.

The federal guidelines outline much the same strategy that a number of local and state governments have already adopted in anticipation of the day when social restrictions are eased, interviews with health officials in a half-dozen states show.

Several governors had expressed concern that Mr. Trump would try to pressure the states to reopen too quickly and had made clear that they were not going to bend to the president’s will if he continued to insist he could order them to end restrictions.

Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington State, which was the first hit hard by the virus, said on Thursday that while his state has been one of the most successful in flattening the curve, the number of cases has plateaued without going down, meaning the danger is not over.

Although the president cannot impose his will through fiat, Mr. Inslee said before the call that Mr. Trump’s public comments could be dangerous if he encouraged the public to think the crisis would end prematurely. “If he repeats the error he made at the beginning of this, it could be equally fatal,” Mr. Inslee said in an interview. “We lost a month because of his failure to recognize the seriousness of this.”

Other governors said they would continue with their own plans to reopen their states in gradual phases, often in coordination with other states in their regions.

“We have a plan to start opening Ohio back up, ” Mr. DeWine said on Twitter. “It’s going to be gradual- one thing after another. We want to do this in a thoughtful way that engenders confidence and ensures customers and employees are safe.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who had said on Wednesday that he would create a task force to make recommendations on how to reopen restaurants, events, businesses and schools, added that he might also issue specific guidelines for South Florida, the hardest-hit part of the state.

“I think that we’re going to be able to come up with a thoughtful approach” to restart the economy,” said Mr. DeSantis, a Republican.

Gov. Gavin Newsom of California praised Mr. Trump for recognizing different circumstances across the country.

“I do want to extend a broad-strokes appreciation for what I heard from the president as it relates to recognizing the differentiation as it exists and persists in terms of conditions in counties, not just in states, across this nation,” Mr. Newsom said.

Mr. Trump sounded upbeat during his meeting with the governors and acknowledged no troubles, despite continuing problems experienced by many of those on the call. “We’re in excellent shape on testing,” the president said, hailing the newer version of a test for the coronavirus that involves a saliva test and complaining in graphic detail about the earlier version that was conducted on him to rule out any infection.

“I was a victim of the first test, meaning I had to go through it, and I didn’t like what was happening,” he said. “They tell you that it goes up your nose and then they hang a right and it goes under your eye, and I said you got to be kidding. I called it an operation not a test.”

After days of toggling back and forth between conflict and conciliation with the governors, he went out of his way on Thursday’s call to heap praise on them.

“You’re very capable people,” he said. “I think in all cases very capable people.”

Reporting was contributed by Nicholas Fandos and Jonathan Martin from Washington, Sheila Kaplan from New York, Patricia Mazzei from Miami, Thomas Fuller from San Francisco and Julie Bosman from Chicago.

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Tracking Trump’s Promises on Responding to the Virus

Westlake Legal Group 16dc-virus-factcheck-facebookJumbo Tracking Trump’s Promises on Responding to the Virus Ventilators (Medical) United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J Tests (Medical) Shortages Masks Health and Human Services Department Google Inc General Motors General Electric Company Defense Production Act CVS Caremark Corporation Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 3M Company

Coronavirus testing will be available in commercial parking lots and can be found through a few clicks on a website. Millions of masks and “more ventilators than we need” will be delivered imminently. Monitoring capabilities for the next phase of the pandemic are on the way.

President Trump has made many promises about responding to the coronavirus crisis. But in the month since he declared a national emergency and as he encourages steps toward reopening the economy, many of them remain unfulfilled or works in progress. The number of testing sites operated by big retail chains is still minimal. It is likely to be months before millions of masks reach hospitals. And his own public health officials warn that a comprehensive surveillance system is not yet ready.

Here’s an assessment of how Mr. Trump’s promises stack up to reality.

For weeks, the Trump administration has pledged to ramp up testing. Progress has been made, but continues to fall short of specific targets outlined by the president.

what was said

March 13: “We’ve been in discussions with pharmacies and retailers to make drive-through tests available in the critical locations identified by public health professionals. The goal is for individuals to be able to drive up and be swabbed without having to leave your car.”

Current status: At the March 13 briefing, Mr. Trump thanked the executives of major companies for what he suggested would become a network of drive-through testing locations. A month later, the companies that initially participated in those efforts have opened a combined eight testing locations out of thousands of stores nationwide. Most are also only available to high-risk populations like emergency medical workers, health care workers and seniors.

CVS is operating four sites. Walgreens has one open, with 15 other locations on the way. Walmart opened two but closed one. There’s one testing site at a Target parking lot in California. Rite Aid, which joined the efforts after the news conference, has also opened six testing locations, with additional sites opening soon in other states.

what was said

March 13: “Google is helping to develop a website. It’s going to be very quickly done, unlike websites of the past, to determine whether a test is warranted and to facilitate testing at a nearby convenient location.”

Current status: Google’s coronavirus website does not have the features Mr. Trump listed. It is currently informational, with overviews of symptoms and treatments and links to the websites of the World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and local health agencies.

Verily, a company affiliated with Google, did develop a website more in line with Mr. Trump’s description. But its screening tool is available only in select locations in California and Pennsylvania, not nationwide.

Health care workers have warned about shortages of essential medical devices. In response, Mr. Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act and signed contracts with manufacturers to meet those needs, but delivery of these supplies may not arrive in time to meet the current demand.

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What Was Said

March 27: “Within the next 100 days, we will either make or get, in some form, over 100,000 additional units” of ventilators.

Current status: According to deadlines set in federal government contracts, which were announced this week, General Motors, Philips, Medtronic, General Electric, Vyaire, Hamilton, Zoll, Hill-Rom and ResMed will provide about 68,700 ventilators to the strategic national stockpile before Mr. Trump’s 100-day timeline. The companies will add another 68,800 by the end of the year.

By May 8, a week after Mr. Trump’s target date for reopening the economy, the companies are scheduled to supply about 6,190 ventilators.

Not long after setting the 100-day goal, Mr. Trump seemed to acknowledge that the speed of ventilator production may not keep pace with initial demand.

“A lot of them will be coming at a time when we won’t need them as badly, because it takes time,” he said on April 2.

What Was Said

April 8: “I ordered 500 million masks — 500 N95s and others — and surgical. But we ordered 500 million masks: 300 and 200. And they’re going to be here very shortly.”

Current status: Many of these N95 masks won’t be delivered for months. A spokeswoman for the Health and Human Services Department said the agency would purchase about 600 million N95 masks for the national stockpile over the next 18 months.

Honeywell will provide 190 million masks for the stockpile. Production began this week, and the company is starting delivery now, a spokesman said. The estimated completion date for the order, according to its government contract, is September 2021.

Dräger will make almost 50 million masks by the same completion date, according to its contract. Production will begin in September and details are being worked out, a spokesman said.

The manufacturing giant 3M will produce 190 million masks by October 2021. A spokeswoman for the company said that delivery would begin in May.

Moldex-Metric will add 38 million masks to the stockpile by next September 2021, three million of which will be delivered over the next three months, CNN reported. O&M Halyard, which will supply 130 million masks, did not respond to inquiries, but its contract also lists a completion date of September 2021.

Public health officials have said that the next phase of mitigating the virus will require more widespread testing than currently exists as well as the ability to identify where outbreaks are occurring and could occur. These capabilities, however, remain in the works.

What Was Said

March 26: “We will suggest guidelines categorizing counties as high risk, medium risk or low risk.”

Current status: The New York Times was unable to locate publicly accessible guidelines for categorizing counties or a risk assessment that matches Mr. Trump’s description. County-level data does not appear to be available on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the federal agency that has issued status reports on the spread of the virus.

In the proposed guidance for reopening that the White House made public on Thursday, the administration stated that governors could implement plans to reopen their economies on a statewide or county-by-county approach, at their discretion. The plan provided no additional detail.

The C.D.C. does report cases by state and provides a “transmission level” map for countries. In its guidance for travel within the United States, the agency recommends consulting “your destination’s local health department website for more information.”

A letter to hospital administrators by Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, and released last week sought data “reported at the facility and county level of detail rather than just a total statewide summary.”

More than a dozen Democrats in the House of Representatives wrote to Mr. Azar and other officials on April 9 asking about those guidelines, and noted that “county-level data are currently not reported by C.D.C. or other federal agencies.” An aide to one of the lawmakers said that they had not heard back.

Asked for an update on the guidelines, the Health and Human Services Department directed inquiries to the White House, which did not respond.

What Was Said

March 27: “Widespread surveillance testing will allow us to monitor the spread of the virus, and we’re doing that quite accurately.”

Current status: The C.D.C. has had trouble establishing a surveillance system that could provide the government with information to guide whether to allow more people back to work and school in different parts of the country. Using a network of health care providers around the country, it began posting weekly updates in April, including the collection and reporting of data on test results, emergency department and outpatient visits, hospitalization rates and deaths. Other key elements to monitor the spread of the virus, however, remain in the works.

For example, blood tests that show exposure to coronavirus through detecting the presence of antibodies are in development. But Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said this week that more research was needed to verify the validity of those tests.

“I know people are anxious to say, ‘Well, we’ll give you a passport that says you’re antibody-positive, you can go to work and you’re protected.’ The worst possibility that would happen is if we’re actually wrong about that” and those people get infected, he told The Associated Press.

Experts have also warned of an insufficient capacity to trace the movement and contacts of people who have tested positive for the virus. The recognition that many people who are infected never show symptoms has presented another challenge.

The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, a nonprofit organization that represents public health agencies across the country, has estimated that the contact tracing work force among state and local agencies stood at 2,200 — and an additional 100,000 employees are needed.

Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the C.D.C., told NPR last week that his agency had more than 600 people in the field helping with the effort, “but we are going to have to substantially amplify that.”

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