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Westlake Legal Group > Posts tagged "Trump, Donald J" (Page 77)

The Law Israel Used to Keep Omar and Tlaib Out

Israel’s decision on Thursday to bar two American Democratic congresswomen, Representatives Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, from visiting the country rests on a law passed just two years ago. Aimed at Israel’s critics, the law has been used to deny entry to outspoken foreign supporters of a global movement to boycott the country, which has significant support in Europe as well as the United States.

The announcement came hours after President Trump had encouraged Israel to deny the congresswomen entry, an extraordinary attempt to influence an ally and punish his domestic political opponents. In a statement, Ms. Omar called Israel’s decision an “insult to democratic values.”

Here’s some background on the Israeli law and how it has been implemented.

Passed in 2017, the law was aimed at outspoken supporters of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement who encourage individuals and institutions to work to pressure Israel to end the occupation of much of the West Bank, grant full equality to Palestinian citizens of Israel and allow Palestinians and their descendants in the diaspora to return to the homes from which they were displaced after the establishment of Israel in 1948.

The vote, which came at a time when the Israeli right was feeling emboldened by the election of Mr. Trump, received little initial notice in Israel. But it quickly drew criticism in the United States from the nation’s supporters and critics alike, who argued that it was anti-democratic and would further isolate Israel.

Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right minister of transportation and a co-sponsor of the bill, defended it at the time. “Preventing B.D.S. supporters who come here to hurt us from the inside is the very least we should be doing against haters of Israel,” he said.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_153112899_c3864b9b-d6eb-4b31-a0ff-f7af54f564a8-articleLarge The Law Israel Used to Keep Omar and Tlaib Out United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J tlaib, rashida Omar, Ilhan Israel International Relations House of Representatives Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS)

Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right minister of transportation and a co-sponsor of the anti-boycott bill in Israel that was passed into law in 2017, in Tel Aviv earlier this year.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

The two congresswomen subject to Thursday’s announcement are the first Muslim women elected to Congress and are both outspoken in their support of Palestinians and the boycott movement, which the Democrat-majority United States House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to condemn last month.

Is B.D.S. Anti-Semitic? A Closer Look at the Boycott Israel Campaign

Jul 27, 2019

Israel Denies Entry to Omar and Tlaib After Trump’s Call to Block Them

Aug 15, 2019

New Israel Law Bars Foreign Critics From Entering the Country

Mar 7, 2017

According to Ben Moore, a spokesman for the Israeli Strategic Affairs Ministry, which is charged with countering the boycott movement, 14 people have been denied entry under the law.

Thursday’s decision was the first time the law was used against American lawmakers, though seven French politicians and European Union parliamentarians were denied entry in late 2017, according to The Jerusalem Post. Israel also used the law last summer to keep out Ariel Gold, who is American, Jewish and the national co-director of the antiwar group Code Pink, which supports the boycott movement, according to The Associated Press.

Last October, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that an American could remain in the country to attend law school after the Interior Ministry had accused her of past support of the movement, while Omar Shakir, an American citizen and advocate for Human Rights Watch, is appealing a deportation order based on the law’s provisions.

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Beto O’Rourke’s New Approach to 2020: ‘Taking the Fight to Donald Trump’

Beto O’Rourke introduced himself to the country as a changed candidate on Thursday, with his presidential campaign recast as a moral crusade against President Trump in the aftermath of a mass shooting in El Paso, his hometown.

Mr. O’Rourke, who represented the city in Congress until the start of this year, said he would abandon the relatively traditional approach he has so far taken — with limited success — and largely detach his travel from a primary calendar that tethers most candidates to a handful of early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Instead, Mr. O’Rourke said he would now plan his political activities around confronting Mr. Trump in direct and personal terms, and highlighting what Mr. O’Rourke views as the injustices of Mr. Trump’s administration. He intends to seek out immigrant-rich towns to campaign in, and to make gun control a central issue.

He outlined his new thinking about the race in a telephone interview on Wednesday evening and a speech in El Paso on Thursday morning. He planned to follow the speech with a trip on Friday to Mississippi, where federal authorities recently detained hundreds of undocumented immigrants in raids targeting workers in the poultry industry.

“I just have to be as clear and as strong as possible in calling this out and taking the fight to Donald Trump,” Mr. O’Rourke said in an interview on Wednesday evening. “In the immediate term, he is the greatest threat to this country, bar none.”

ON POLITICS

Mr. O’Rourke said he had begun to think of the campaign differently after being asked last week whether he would break away from his grieving city to attend the Iowa State Fair, a traditional stop on the presidential trail. He chose to skip the fair, and on Wednesday said he felt that kind of campaigning did not match the political moment.

“I don’t know that I’ve been doing a good enough job to match that threat with the urgency and the honesty and the clarity that it deserves,” Mr. O’Rourke said. “Being with those who have been denigrated and demeaned is more important than it has ever been.”

In his speech, Mr. O’Rourke said he saw that the country’s shared institutions, including Congress and the press, had been “impotent in the face of the greatest threat that we have ever known,” raising the burden on individual people to take on social challenges like gun violence and xenophobia.

“When we fail to do that, we provide fertile ground for the kind of demagogues that we have in office right now,” Mr. O’Rourke said.

Beyond his imminent trip to Mississippi, Mr. O’Rourke said he envisioned campaign trips to visit Muslim communities that Mr. Trump had demonized, as well as people who were in jail and certain parts of the country that voted heavily for Mr. Trump.

It is difficult to foresee the political implications of Mr. O’Rourke’s decision on the crowded Democratic race. The field of candidates has not lacked for strong antagonists of Mr. Trump, nor for champions of liberal policies on immigration and gun control. By shifting his focus away from the early primary states, Mr. O’Rourke runs the risk of being overshadowed on multiple levels — on the national stage by better-known rivals, like Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Elizabeth Warren, and in Iowa and New Hampshire by more attentive underdogs, like Pete Buttigieg and Cory Booker.

Yet the approach Mr. O’Rourke envisions appears to be a direct extension of the agonized outcry to which he helped give voice after a white supremacist gunman murdered 22 people and injured dozens more in an El Paso Walmart. The killer told police he deliberately targeted Latinos, and in a manifesto echoed rhetoric about a migrant “invasion” that Mr. Trump and his political allies have regularly deployed.

Mr. O’Rourke responded to the attack in part by branding Mr. Trump a racist and white supremacist, and blaming him for having “created the conditions that made an attack like this possible and even likely.” On Thursday morning, he branded Mr. Trump again as a president “who so openly speaks in racist terms, so openly favors one race, one religion, one kind of people in this country.”

In some respects, Mr. O’Rourke’s new approach is an abrupt departure from his campaign style so far — one that has involved criticism of Mr. Trump but not a consuming focus on the president, with his campaign schedule defined by Mr. O’Rourke’s dogged personal courtship of voters in the early-voting states. His support in national polls has been hovering recently around 2 percent.

Mr. O’Rourke has also acknowledged, in both public and private settings, that the early stages of his presidential campaign gave the impression of excessive self-regard, starting with a romantic portrait on the cover of Vanity Fair that heralded his entry into the race.

In other ways, Mr. O’Rourke’s determination to proceed as a man unburdened by a traditional schedule of early-state rituals recalls the comparatively freewheeling and self-directed mode of campaigning he employed in his challenge to Senator Ted Cruz last year.

Over the last two weeks, Mr. O’Rourke has been a more resonant figure in the primary contest, speaking out from his wounded city in raw and emotional terms. And he has flashed glimpses of the traits that made him a hero to liberals in the midterm elections — his willingness to confront a right-wing adversary in plain language, for one, and his authentic passion on issues of immigration and national identity.

It remains to be seen whether Democrats are likely to find Mr. O’Rourke a similarly affecting spokesman on matters far outside El Paso and the immediate circumstances of the tragedy there. He has been facing a chorus of pleas, from Democrats in Texas and Washington, to leave the presidential race and run again for the Senate, challenging Senator John Cornyn, a senior Republican. The filing deadline for the race is not until December.

But Mr. O’Rourke has consistently rebuffed those entreaties, and in his speech he said a Senate campaign would not be “good enough” for this political moment. His campaign aides have grown frustrated with the pressure being applied to Mr. O’Rourke by fellow Democrats and the persistent, Senate-themed questions he receives from the news media.

An editorial in The Houston Chronicle this week urged him: “Beto, come home. Texas needs you.”

Mr. O’Rourke may still struggle to stand out in the presidential primary: He is far from the only Democratic candidate to blame Mr. Trump for creating a toxic and dangerous social atmosphere that has left Latinos and other minority groups vulnerable to violence. Nor is he the only candidate to design his campaign schedule around acts by Mr. Trump and other Republicans that Democrats find appalling.

Julián Castro, the former housing secretary and a fellow Texan, has been running ads on Fox News decrying the El Paso massacre that targeted people who “look like me.” In July, Mr. Booker, the New Jersey senator, crossed over the border with Mexico and returned with several migrants seeking asylum. And last week he delivered a searing speech on race at the Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston, S.C., the site of another mass shooting by a white supremacist. In May, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York campaigned in Atlanta after Georgia’s Republican-dominated government enacted strict new limits on abortion.

And around the Democrats’ first debate in Miami, a number of leading candidates — including Ms. Warren and her Senate colleagues, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders — visited a South Florida detention facility that was holding migrant children.

Asked if he saw himself as a distinctive voice in that crowd of candidates, Mr. O’Rourke said he did not think of his decision that way. But he felt he had a perspective to share, he said, grounded in his experiences in El Paso.

“I don’t always keep tabs on what all the other campaigns are doing,” he said. “I just know very clearly what it is that I have to do, and the urgency with which I feel it.”

Mr. O’Rourke added, “It has to change you, when this happens to your community.”

More on Beto O’Rourke and El Paso
After El Paso Shooting, Will Voters Revisit Beto O’Rourke?

Aug 11, 2019

Westlake Legal Group 00beto1-threeByTwoSmallAt2X-v4 Beto O’Rourke’s New Approach to 2020: ‘Taking the Fight to Donald Trump’ Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 O'Rourke, Beto
His Only Relative Was Killed in the El Paso Massacre. He Has Invited the City to Her Funeral.

Aug 14, 2019

Westlake Legal Group 14elpasofuneral-01-threeByTwoSmallAt2X Beto O’Rourke’s New Approach to 2020: ‘Taking the Fight to Donald Trump’ Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 O'Rourke, Beto
El Paso Shooting Victims: Here Are Some of Their Stories

Aug 4, 2019

Westlake Legal Group merlin_158869011_3a4a936e-4161-4045-b475-b4b9b50c8394-threeByTwoSmallAt2X Beto O’Rourke’s New Approach to 2020: ‘Taking the Fight to Donald Trump’ Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 O'Rourke, Beto

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Trump Thinks Corey Lewandowski Would Be a ‘Fantastic’ Senator From New Hampshire

Westlake Legal Group 15lewandowski-facebookJumbo Trump Thinks Corey Lewandowski Would Be a ‘Fantastic’ Senator From New Hampshire United States Politics and Government Trump, Donald J New Hampshire Lewandowski, Corey (1975- )

President Trump on Thursday all but endorsed his former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, for a potential Senate run from New Hampshire, saying he would be “hard to beat” if he ran and a “great senator” if he won.

Mr. Trump made the remarks in an interview with the New Hampshire radio host Jack Heath, amid reports that Mr. Lewandowski is seriously considering a campaign in his home state to become the Republican challenger to the Democratic incumbent, Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

Mr. Lewandowski is expected to ride in the presidential motorcade Thursday night with Mr. Trump from the airport in Manchester, N.H., to a re-election campaign rally that Mr. Trump will hold nearby. For days, questions have swirled about whether Mr. Trump will endorse Mr. Lewandowski, who has not yet declared his candidacy, at the rally. An announcement from Mr. Lewandowski about the Senate race is not yet imminent, according to a person working with him.

Mr. Lewandowski is one of the most high-profile witnesses who was interviewed by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, who investigated possible conspiracy between Russian officials and the Trump campaign, as well as possible obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump. Mr. Lewandowski, according to the report submitted to the Justice Department by the Mueller team, told federal investigators that Mr. Trump had wanted him to personally intervene with Jeff Sessions, then the attorney general, over the probe. On Thursday, hours before the Trump rally, the House Judiciary Committee subpoenaed Mr. Lewandowski in relation to the Mueller report.

In the interview Thursday morning, Mr. Trump appeared eager to elevate Mr. Lewandowski. When Mr. Heath asked if Mr. Lewandowski would have the president’s support if he ran, Mr. Trump stopped short of a full endorsement, saying that Mr. Lewandowski hadn’t made up his mind about joining the race. But he went on to say, “I have to tell you, I think he’d be fantastic.”

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“He’s got great energy, he’s terrific on television,” Mr. Trump said. “I like everything about him.”

He added, “If he ran, I think he’d be number one. I think he’d be hard to beat in New Hampshire.”

Mr. Trump fired Mr. Lewandowski at the urging of his children in June 2016, but the president has retained a fondness for him and speaks with him often. Before his ouster, Mr. Lewandowski helped Mr. Trump notch his first primary victory, in New Hampshire, a win that helped vault him to the nomination. Mr. Lewandowski would hope to run on the same outsider energy that Mr. Trump channeled that year.

Just how formidable Mr. Lewandowski would be is a source of disagreement among political professionals, most of whom predict an ugly Republican primary race and general election in New Hampshire.

His opponents would be almost certain to raise questions about his business activities since Mr. Trump took office. In the years since he was fired, Mr. Lewandowski co-wrote two books about Mr. Trump with David Bossie, the head of the conservative group Citizens United. But he has also been an adviser to companies that have interests with the government, and he would be required to file financial disclosure forms that would reveal the extent of those business arrangements.

In May 2017, Mr. Lewandowski left the lobbying firm he helped start, Avenue Strategies, amid increasing questions about whether he was lobbying without having registered. Since then, Mr. Lewandowski has had private clients and for many months gave paid speeches to different groups. Mr. Lewandowski has previously said he is not a lobbyist, and that he has never called government officials on behalf of a client.

Democrats are also looking to highlight allegations of assault made against Mr. Lewandowski. In 2016, during the campaign, he was accused of grabbing a reporter for Breitbart News who was trying to ask Mr. Trump questions at one of his properties in Florida. Mr. Lewandowski was charged with simple battery by the police. The charges were later dropped. The following year, a pop singer accused Mr. Lewandowski of slapping her at a party in Washington.

And Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a Republican who is up for re-election next year, has told the White House he has concerns about the impact that Mr. Lewandowski’s candidacy could have on others on the ballot, according to two people briefed on the discussions.

“Corey Lewandowski is a shadow lobbyist with a nefarious client list that includes foreign interests, which is why New Hampshire Republicans and even Governor Chris Sununu have been keeping their distance,” said Josh Marcus-Blank, a spokesman for the New Hampshire Democratic Party. “Lewandowski, with his record of violence, will make an already nasty Republican primary even worse.”

The G.O.P. primary already has several declared candidates, including the retired Brig. Gen. Donald C. Bolduc and Bill O’Brien, the former state house speaker. After Mr. Bossie released a private poll he had commissioned from a pollster working with Mr. Trump’s campaign that showed Mr. Lewandowski leading in a theoretical Republican primary, aides to Mr. Bolduc released their own internal survey showing Mr. Bolduc ahead.

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Many Democrats Love Elizabeth Warren. They Also Worry About Her.

COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — Senator Elizabeth Warren has built the most formidable campaign organization of any Democratic presidential candidate in the first nominating states, raised an impressive $25 million without holding high-dollar fund-raisers, and has risen steadily in Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

Few candidates inspire as much enthusiasm as she does among party voters, too, from the thousands who turned out for her speech at the Iowa State Fair last weekend to the supporters in this western Iowa city who repeat her catchphrases, wear her buttons and describe themselves as dazzled by her intellect and liberal ideas.

Yet few candidates also inspire as much worry among these voters as Ms. Warren does.

Even as she demonstrates why she is a leading candidate for the party’s nomination, Ms. Warren is facing persistent questions and doubts about whether she would be able to defeat President Trump in the general election. The concerns, including from her admirers, reflect the head-versus-heart debate shaping a Democratic contest increasingly being fought over the meaning of electability and how to take on Mr. Trump

Interviews with more than three dozen Democratic voters and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina this summer, at events for Ms. Warren as well as other 2020 hopefuls, yield a similar array of concerns about her candidacy.

These Democrats worry that her uncompromising liberalism would alienate moderates in battleground states who are otherwise willing to oppose the president. Many fear Ms. Warren’s past claims of Native American ancestry would allow Mr. Trump to drown out her policy message with his attacks and slurs against her. They cite her professorial style and Harvard background to argue that she might struggle to connect with voters from more modest circumstances than hers, even though she grew up in a financially strained home in Oklahoma.

And there are Democrats who, chastened by Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016, believe that a woman cannot win in 2020.

“I think she’s terrific but my questions about her are, can she get elected with the negativity, with all the stuff that’s thrown at her?” asked Rick Morris, a New Hampshire carpenter who attended a house party for Ms. Warren there last month. “Usually in the primary I vote for whoever I like the most, but this one I will put in electability.”

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The concerns about Ms. Warren partly reflect ingrained assumptions that women or candidates of color would have a harder time winning the presidency than white men. This view has been repeatedly expressed on the campaign trail by some Democrats who believe Mr. Trump’s unlikely victory, after two terms of the nation’s first black president, amounted to a warning sign about the American electorate’s openness to change.

Many moderate Democrats see the field’s current front-runner, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the 76-year-old former vice president, as a safer option than Ms. Warren and other candidates. But Mr. Biden’s lead in the polls is partly based on strong name recognition, and his recent gaffes and middling debate performances have raised questions about whether he has the agility to defeat Mr. Trump.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_159132102_5c8b86d3-9523-474b-a0e9-ae4091256579-articleLarge Many Democrats Love Elizabeth Warren. They Also Worry About Her. Warren, Elizabeth Voting and Voters Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Harris, Kamala D Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr

Ms. Warren’s remarks at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday drew thousands of people, many of whom mobbed her for selfies and autographs afterward.CreditErin Schaff/The New York Times

Many voters interviewed are now wrestling with whether to elevate a candidate who captures their imaginations, and progressive ambitions, or to rally more cautiously behind a Democrat who they perceive as having a better chance of building a broad coalition of Democrats, independents and disaffected Republicans to fulfill their most urgent goal: ejecting Mr. Trump from the White House.

The Massachusetts senator’s top campaign aides are acutely aware of their challenge on questions about Ms. Warren’s viability. They are taking a series of steps to allay the concerns, perhaps most notably arming her in the last debate with the talking point that conventional wisdom also suggested that both Mr. Trump and former President Barack Obama were risky nominees because they broke from the traditional commander-in-chief mold. After the debate, Warren aides blasted clips of that remark from her social media accounts.

But even after Ms. Warren turned in two well-received debate performances, a Quinnipiac survey showed she had not made gains on the question of who has the best chance to beat Mr. Trump: Just nine percent said she did, while 49 percent pointed to Mr. Biden.

In an interview before a town hall meeting in western Iowa last week, Ms. Warren, acknowledging the questions about her candidacy, said there was only one overarching way to quiet the skeptics.

“Nothing will overcome people’s worries more than success,” she said.

But Ms. Warren also demonstrated that she was still uncertain about how to address Mr. Trump’s taunts about the Native American heritage she once claimed. Her attempt to prove that ancestry with a DNA test last year drew fierce criticism from the right and left as well as some Native American groups; she stood by the DNA test for months, then apologized for it and the claims.

Having been told by advisers to generally avoid engaging on the issue, Ms. Warren struggled in the interview to articulate an answer about whether she would respond to Mr. Trump head-on when he uses his frequent slur for her, “Pocahontas,” or pivot to a more policy-centered rebuttal.

“My job is not to be drawn off into that,” she said.

And she had little to say about why, after pledging to a Native American group last year that she would always highlight their issues when her heritage is raised, she has quietly backed away from the commitment by typically remaining silent when Mr. Trump makes his attacks.

“I still, I am working on being a good partner,” Ms. Warren said, haltingly. “And the best way to be a good partner is to walk the walk.”

She was more sure-footed on an issue that has prompted alarm among elected Democratic officials and operatives: her refusal to hold fund-raisers or seek four-figure checks from the party’s wealthy donors.

While she has made this commitment central to her primary campaign, implicitly scorning her rivals who are raising money in the traditional fashion, Ms. Warren said she would not shun big money if she becomes her party’s nominee.

Even as Ms. Warren demonstrates why she is a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, she is facing persistent questions, even from admirers, about whether she would be able to defeat President Trump in the general election.CreditBridget Bennett for The New York Times

“I don’t believe in unilateral disarmament,” she said, making clear that her policy only applies in the primary and not in the general election, when Mr. Trump is expected to lean on a range of well-heeled individuals and interests.

But as Ms. Warren increasingly becomes a top contender for the nomination, Democrats are thinking harder about what that would mean for their prospects.

In Iowa, a former chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, Sue Dvorsky, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris last weekend after confiding to friends that she felt Ms. Warren’s liberalism would be a liability in a general election, according to a Democratic official who spoke to Ms. Dvorsky.

It’s a sentiment that many voters expressed at Warren events.

Some of these Democrats prefer Mr. Biden, viewing him as an acceptable option to a cross-section of voters, but others are eager to find a middle ground between the consensus-oriented former vice president and progressive firebrands like Ms. Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

“If it were completely up to me, I’d vote for her,” said Jessie Sagona, who also came to see Ms. Warren last month in New Hampshire. “But I kind of feel like, do we need somebody in the middle like Kamala or Pete,” referring to Ms. Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Ms. Sagona said she had not fully made up her mind but was weighing the importance of “thinking strategically.”

Jan Phelps, who came to see Senator Cory Booker at a house party of his own in New Hampshire last month, articulated a similar calculation.

“I love her enthusiasm. She’s smart, she’s very smart. I think she would make an amazing president,” said Ms. Phelps, before quickly adding: “I’m worried about whether she can win. I worry that she’s being pulled even further to the left and that concerns me. Because we need to win, we just need to win.”

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Ms. Warren is moving aggressively to address such concerns. Her aides are distributing “Win With Warren” signs at events to implicitly address the electability question. Her campaign also used a town hall meeting she held in Oakland to interview attendees, in the fashion of an on-the-scene local TV news reporter, about whether they thought she could win. (The verdict in the video: a resounding yes.)

And in addition to her debate remark on skepticism about Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama’s candidacies — which reflects a theory of her top adviser, Dan Geldon, that most modern presidents were seen as vulnerable nominees — Ms. Warren is also making comparisons between this race and her 2012 defeat of then-Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

“People told me you can’t win,” she recalled to attendees at her town hall in Council Bluffs. “And you can’t win because Massachusetts is not going to elect a woman to the Senate or the governor’s office.”

Ms. Warren has risen steadily in Iowa and New Hampshire polls.CreditErin Schaff/The New York Times

Yet a few minutes before the Warren event here got underway, one of her admirers made this very point about Ms. Warren’s White House hopes. Gail Houghton, a retiree, said flatly that she did not think Ms. Warren could win the presidency because of her gender.

“They’re just not ready yet,” Ms. Houghton said of the American electorate, adding that Mr. Trump’s divisive conduct has normalized prejudices. “It’s getting worse because we’re getting permission to behave this way from the top.”

But, Ms. Houghton was quick to add, she believed Ms. Warren would “make a wonderful vice president.”

Democratic activists in other states say much the same. Approaching a reporter in June at Representative James Clyburn’s annual fish fry in South Carolina, Ed Nelson waxed nostalgic about the Obama years before proffering his preferred pairing.

“I hope it’s a Biden-Warren ticket,” Mr. Nelson said. “That’s what I want, that’s what I want.”

Ms. Warren’s supporters bridle at what they believe is the condescending nature of projecting her as a running mate, as do supporters of Ms. Harris, who is also often mentioned as a possible No. 2.

Several Democrats voluntarily mentioned both women as candidates they are eyeing in the primaries — and assessed them through the prism of electability. Some said they viewed Ms. Harris as a stronger choice, for reasons that they explain by pointing to 2016.

“I think one thing that happened with Hillary last time, people were like ‘ehhhh,’ they didn’t like the personality,” said Jackie Williams who attended an event for Ms. Harris last month near New Hampshire’s Lake Winnipesaukee. Ms. Williams said Ms. Harris had the edge with her, pointing to her easy “interaction with the crowd.”

At a Democratic picnic outside Des Moines a few weeks earlier, Marnie Lloyd said of Ms. Harris, “I don’t think we’ll hear the ‘she’s not likable’ we heard with Hillary.” Ms. Lloyd said she was less confident about Ms. Warren avoiding such a critique.

Judging personality and likability is subjective, of course, and those characteristics tend to be part of a double standard faced by female candidates. Many Democrats like Ms. Warren — some wait for an hour to take pictures with her — and she continues to gain supporters. But even among some of her enthusiasts, the questions about her vulnerabilities linger.

In Council Bluffs, waiting to see Ms. Warren take the stage, Herb Christensen was succinct about why he liked her — and why he worried about her as the nominee.

“My god, she’s smart,” he said. “Pocahontas, that’s the only thing.”

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Many Democrats Love Elizabeth Warren. They Also Worry About Her.

COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — Senator Elizabeth Warren has built the most formidable campaign organization of any Democratic presidential candidate in the first nominating states, raised an impressive $25 million without holding high-dollar fund-raisers, and has risen steadily in Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

Few candidates inspire as much enthusiasm as she does among party voters, too, from the thousands who turned out for her speech at the Iowa State Fair last weekend to the supporters in this western Iowa city who repeat her catchphrases, wear her buttons and describe themselves as dazzled by her intellect and liberal ideas.

Yet few candidates also inspire as much worry among these voters as Ms. Warren does.

Even as she demonstrates why she is a leading candidate for the party’s nomination, Ms. Warren is facing persistent questions and doubts about whether she would be able to defeat President Trump in the general election. The concerns, including from her admirers, reflect the head-versus-heart debate shaping a Democratic contest increasingly being fought over the meaning of electability and how to take on Mr. Trump

Interviews with more than three dozen Democratic voters and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina this summer, at events for Ms. Warren as well as other 2020 hopefuls, yield a similar array of concerns about her candidacy.

These Democrats worry that her uncompromising liberalism would alienate moderates in battleground states who are otherwise willing to oppose the president. Many fear Ms. Warren’s past claims of Native American ancestry would allow Mr. Trump to drown out her policy message with his attacks and slurs against her. They cite her professorial style and Harvard background to argue that she might struggle to connect with voters from more modest circumstances than hers, even though she grew up in a financially strained home in Oklahoma.

And there are Democrats who, chastened by Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016, believe that a woman cannot win in 2020.

“I think she’s terrific but my questions about her are, can she get elected with the negativity, with all the stuff that’s thrown at her?” asked Rick Morris, a New Hampshire carpenter who attended a house party for Ms. Warren there last month. “Usually in the primary I vote for whoever I like the most, but this one I will put in electability.”

[Sign up for our politics newsletter and join the conversation around the 2020 presidential race.]

The concerns about Ms. Warren partly reflect ingrained assumptions that women or candidates of color would have a harder time winning the presidency than white men. This view has been repeatedly expressed on the campaign trail by some Democrats who believe Mr. Trump’s unlikely victory, after two terms of the nation’s first black president, amounted to a warning sign about the American electorate’s openness to change.

Many moderate Democrats see the field’s current front-runner, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the 76-year-old former vice president, as a safer option than Ms. Warren and other candidates. But Mr. Biden’s lead in the polls is partly based on strong name recognition, and his recent gaffes and middling debate performances have raised questions about whether he has the agility to defeat Mr. Trump.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_159132102_5c8b86d3-9523-474b-a0e9-ae4091256579-articleLarge Many Democrats Love Elizabeth Warren. They Also Worry About Her. Warren, Elizabeth Voting and Voters Trump, Donald J Presidential Election of 2020 Harris, Kamala D Democratic Party Biden, Joseph R Jr

Ms. Warren’s remarks at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday drew thousands of people, many of whom mobbed her for selfies and autographs afterward.CreditErin Schaff/The New York Times

Many voters interviewed are now wrestling with whether to elevate a candidate who captures their imaginations, and progressive ambitions, or to rally more cautiously behind a Democrat who they perceive as having a better chance of building a broad coalition of Democrats, independents and disaffected Republicans to fulfill their most urgent goal: ejecting Mr. Trump from the White House.

The Massachusetts senator’s top campaign aides are acutely aware of their challenge on questions about Ms. Warren’s viability. They are taking a series of steps to allay the concerns, perhaps most notably arming her in the last debate with the talking point that conventional wisdom also suggested that both Mr. Trump and former President Barack Obama were risky nominees because they broke from the traditional commander-in-chief mold. After the debate, Warren aides blasted clips of that remark from her social media accounts.

But even after Ms. Warren turned in two well-received debate performances, a Quinnipiac survey showed she had not made gains on the question of who has the best chance to beat Mr. Trump: Just nine percent said she did, while 49 percent pointed to Mr. Biden.

In an interview before a town hall meeting in western Iowa last week, Ms. Warren, acknowledging the questions about her candidacy, said there was only one overarching way to quiet the skeptics.

“Nothing will overcome people’s worries more than success,” she said.

But Ms. Warren also demonstrated that she was still uncertain about how to address Mr. Trump’s taunts about the Native American heritage she once claimed. Her attempt to prove that ancestry with a DNA test last year drew fierce criticism from the right and left as well as some Native American groups; she stood by the DNA test for months, then apologized for it and the claims.

Having been told by advisers to generally avoid engaging on the issue, Ms. Warren struggled in the interview to articulate an answer about whether she would respond to Mr. Trump head-on when he uses his frequent slur for her, “Pocahontas,” or pivot to a more policy-centered rebuttal.

“My job is not to be drawn off into that,” she said.

And she had little to say about why, after pledging to a Native American group last year that she would always highlight their issues when her heritage is raised, she has quietly backed away from the commitment by typically remaining silent when Mr. Trump makes his attacks.

“I still, I am working on being a good partner,” Ms. Warren said, haltingly. “And the best way to be a good partner is to walk the walk.”

She was more sure-footed on an issue that has prompted alarm among elected Democratic officials and operatives: her refusal to hold fund-raisers or seek four-figure checks from the party’s wealthy donors.

While she has made this commitment central to her primary campaign, implicitly scorning her rivals who are raising money in the traditional fashion, Ms. Warren said she would not shun big money if she becomes her party’s nominee.

Even as Ms. Warren demonstrates why she is a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, she is facing persistent questions, even from admirers, about whether she would be able to defeat President Trump in the general election.CreditBridget Bennett for The New York Times

“I don’t believe in unilateral disarmament,” she said, making clear that her policy only applies in the primary and not in the general election, when Mr. Trump is expected to lean on a range of well-heeled individuals and interests.

But as Ms. Warren increasingly becomes a top contender for the nomination, Democrats are thinking harder about what that would mean for their prospects.

In Iowa, a former chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, Sue Dvorsky, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris last weekend after confiding to friends that she felt Ms. Warren’s liberalism would be a liability in a general election, according to a Democratic official who spoke to Ms. Dvorsky.

It’s a sentiment that many voters expressed at Warren events.

Some of these Democrats prefer Mr. Biden, viewing him as an acceptable option to a cross-section of voters, but others are eager to find a middle ground between the consensus-oriented former vice president and progressive firebrands like Ms. Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

“If it were completely up to me, I’d vote for her,” said Jessie Sagona, who also came to see Ms. Warren last month in New Hampshire. “But I kind of feel like, do we need somebody in the middle like Kamala or Pete,” referring to Ms. Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Ms. Sagona said she had not fully made up her mind but was weighing the importance of “thinking strategically.”

Jan Phelps, who came to see Senator Cory Booker at a house party of his own in New Hampshire last month, articulated a similar calculation.

“I love her enthusiasm. She’s smart, she’s very smart. I think she would make an amazing president,” said Ms. Phelps, before quickly adding: “I’m worried about whether she can win. I worry that she’s being pulled even further to the left and that concerns me. Because we need to win, we just need to win.”

[Keep up with the 2020 field with our candidate tracker.]

Ms. Warren is moving aggressively to address such concerns. Her aides are distributing “Win With Warren” signs at events to implicitly address the electability question. Her campaign also used a town hall meeting she held in Oakland to interview attendees, in the fashion of an on-the-scene local TV news reporter, about whether they thought she could win. (The verdict in the video: a resounding yes.)

And in addition to her debate remark on skepticism about Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama’s candidacies — which reflects a theory of her top adviser, Dan Geldon, that most modern presidents were seen as vulnerable nominees — Ms. Warren is also making comparisons between this race and her 2012 defeat of then-Senator Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

“People told me you can’t win,” she recalled to attendees at her town hall in Council Bluffs. “And you can’t win because Massachusetts is not going to elect a woman to the Senate or the governor’s office.”

Ms. Warren has risen steadily in Iowa and New Hampshire polls.CreditErin Schaff/The New York Times

Yet a few minutes before the Warren event here got underway, one of her admirers made this very point about Ms. Warren’s White House hopes. Gail Houghton, a retiree, said flatly that she did not think Ms. Warren could win the presidency because of her gender.

“They’re just not ready yet,” Ms. Houghton said of the American electorate, adding that Mr. Trump’s divisive conduct has normalized prejudices. “It’s getting worse because we’re getting permission to behave this way from the top.”

But, Ms. Houghton was quick to add, she believed Ms. Warren would “make a wonderful vice president.”

Democratic activists in other states say much the same. Approaching a reporter in June at Representative James Clyburn’s annual fish fry in South Carolina, Ed Nelson waxed nostalgic about the Obama years before proffering his preferred pairing.

“I hope it’s a Biden-Warren ticket,” Mr. Nelson said. “That’s what I want, that’s what I want.”

Ms. Warren’s supporters bridle at what they believe is the condescending nature of projecting her as a running mate, as do supporters of Ms. Harris, who is also often mentioned as a possible No. 2.

Several Democrats voluntarily mentioned both women as candidates they are eyeing in the primaries — and assessed them through the prism of electability. Some said they viewed Ms. Harris as a stronger choice, for reasons that they explain by pointing to 2016.

“I think one thing that happened with Hillary last time, people were like ‘ehhhh,’ they didn’t like the personality,” said Jackie Williams who attended an event for Ms. Harris last month near New Hampshire’s Lake Winnipesaukee. Ms. Williams said Ms. Harris had the edge with her, pointing to her easy “interaction with the crowd.”

At a Democratic picnic outside Des Moines a few weeks earlier, Marnie Lloyd said of Ms. Harris, “I don’t think we’ll hear the ‘she’s not likable’ we heard with Hillary.” Ms. Lloyd said she was less confident about Ms. Warren avoiding such a critique.

Judging personality and likability is subjective, of course, and those characteristics tend to be part of a double standard faced by female candidates. Many Democrats like Ms. Warren — some wait for an hour to take pictures with her — and she continues to gain supporters. But even among some of her enthusiasts, the questions about her vulnerabilities linger.

In Council Bluffs, waiting to see Ms. Warren take the stage, Herb Christensen was succinct about why he liked her — and why he worried about her as the nominee.

“My god, she’s smart,” he said. “Pocahontas, that’s the only thing.”

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Trump Says ‘Hong Kong Is Not Helping’ in Trade War With China

HONG KONG — In his most extensive comments on the months of unrest in Hong Kong, President Trump said on Wednesday that China should “humanely” settle the situation before a trade deal is reached.

His comments, delivered on Twitter, for the first time tied the fate of pro-democracy protesters to a trade deal with China, a top administration priority.

Mr. Trump praised President Xi Jinping of China as “a great leader” and suggested a “personal meeting” could help solve the crisis in Hong Kong. He also said “China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping.”

“Of course China wants to make a deal,” he said. “Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!”

[Here’s a guide to why people are protesting in Hong Kong and how the movement has evolved.]

Though the protests have been going on for more than two months, as demonstrators have filled streets and jammed airport terminals in actions that have frequently ended with violent police crackdowns, Mr. Trump had all but ignored the situation, offering just tepid, short statements. His comments on Wednesday stopped short of praising or supporting the protesters, as both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have done, and he did not explain what he meant by “humanely” working with Hong Kong.

One day earlier, Mr. Trump took no stance when asked by reporters.

“The Hong Kong thing is a very tough situation,” he said on Tuesday. “Very tough. We’ll see what happens. But I’m sure it’ll work out.”

He added: “I hope it works out for everybody, including China. I hope it works out peacefully. I hope nobody gets hurt. I hope nobody gets killed.”

He had previously called the protests “riots,” repeating language used by the Chinese government that is strongly disputed by protesters, and said, “That’s between Hong Kong and that’s between China, because Hong Kong is a part of China.”

The White House’s restraint on the issue has stood out in Washington, where the protests have been the source of a rare sight: broad bipartisan agreement.

Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader; Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader; and Marco Rubio are among the Republicans who have put out full-throated statements in support of the protests. Across the aisle, Nancy Pelosi, the House majority leader; Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader; and most of the Democratic nominees for president have done the same.

The protesters, initially stirred in opposition to a proposed law that would allow extraditions to mainland China, have expanded their demands to include universal suffrage, an independent investigation of the police’s handling of the demonstrations, and amnesty for hundreds of arrested protesters. The protests have been mostly peaceful but have occasionally turned violent, including a chaotic scene at the airport Tuesday when demonstrators attacked two men from mainland China, including a journalist.

The police have routinely used tear gas, pepper spray and batons to disperse protesters. Hong Kong officials have resisted an investigation into the police’s tactics, which have been condemned by international groups including the United Nations Human Rights office, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

Nor have officials indicated any willingness to submit to the protesters’ demands, increasing fears that the impasse could lead to a bloody, Tiananmen-style crackdown by Beijing. Mr. Trump tweeted on Tuesday that the Chinese government had moved troops to the border with Hong Kong, and encouraged everyone to be “calm and safe.”

A garrison of soldiers with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is stationed in Hong Kong, but most observers consider it unlikely that Beijing would use it to squelch protests unless as a last resort, as it would all but destroy the territory’s autonomy and could have a devastating economic impact.

In online forums popular with protesters in Hong Kong, people largely welcomed Mr. Trump’s most recent comments on Wednesday but expressed concern that the United States would not take any more significant actions. China has accused foreign countries, primarily the United States, of secretly being behind the protest movement — an accusation strongly denied by American officials and laughed at by protesters, who say they can organize protests without help.

A few protesters have waved American flags at demonstrations, typically seen as signaling support for democracy more than an allegiance to the country.

“Like many protesters, we want Trump to liberate Hong Kong and to pass laws that will help the democratization of our city,” Brian Chan, who held a large American flag, said during a march on July 21. “We need international help, and America is the only country with the means and possibly the incentive to sanction China. They are already at trade war, and I believe that China is at the losing side.”

Katherine Li contributed reporting.

Soul Searching Among Hong Kong Protesters After Chaos at Airport

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Markets Are Shaken by New Signs of Global Economic Trouble

The global economy is under increasing stress as growth cools and trade tensions take a mounting toll. On Wednesday, the tremors were felt worldwide.

Shares on Wall Street were off sharply, only a day after they had rallied as President Trump narrowed the scope of his next round of tariffs. The S&P 500 was down 2.9 percent. And bond markets offered an ominous warning on American growth prospects, with yields falling to levels not seen in years.

The financial jitters came after new data showed the German economy hurtling toward a recession and factory output in China growing at its slowest pace in 17 years.

The trouble in two of the world’s manufacturing powerhouses indicated, in part, how hard both have been hit by Mr. Trump’s tariffs. And it increased concern that the United States, too, is headed for an economic reckoning.

“The global backdrop has slowed more than anticipated,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief United States financial economist at Oxford Economics. “We’re not immune to the slowdown.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has put the odds of a recession in the United States in the coming year at one in three, citing factors like weaker industrial production and auto sales.

“Economic data have softened and are increasingly sending recession signals, particularly from the industrial side,” said Michelle Meyer, head of United States economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Trade is a huge part of it.”

The shock waves not only are a measure of the trade war’s impact, but could also complicate Mr. Trump’s ability to wage it.

Since the beginning of his trade battle with Beijing, the president has had a powerful ally: the United States economy. The first tariffs aimed solely at China, in the spring of 2018, coincided with the best economic showing of his presidency, with quarterly growth running at a 3.5 percent pace.

But growth is slowing, hitting 2.1 percent in the most recent quarter, and estimates for the current quarter are even lower. The president’s decision Tuesday to delay some duties on Chinese imports was meant to soften the blow to American consumers, easing the economic headwinds.

ImageWestlake Legal Group merlin_154556643_21a45ab7-4b4d-4f13-910c-ac85a7054070-articleLarge Markets Are Shaken by New Signs of Global Economic Trouble United States Economy Trump, Donald J Stocks and Bonds Recession and Depression International Trade and World Market Germany Factories and Manufacturing Economic Conditions and Trends China

A factory producing baby products in Guangdong Province, China. The country’s industrial output grew last month at its slowest pace in 17 years.CreditAleksandar Plavevski/EPA, via Shutterstock

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade, a move that its chair, Jerome H. Powell, said was “intended to ensure against downside risks from weak global growth and trade tensions.” Another rate cut next month looks likely.

Mr. Trump has pointed to the economy’s performance as a benchmark of his success and an argument for his re-election in 2020. And many indicators remain vibrant. At 3.7 percent, unemployment is low by historical standards, while consumer confidence is high. Even with Wall Street’s recent volatility, major stock indexes are close to record levels.

The United States is also more cushioned against economic turmoil than other big countries because exports account for just 12 percent of its gross domestic product. Germany, with its automaking prowess, and China, with its vast factories for consumer goods, are more dependent on international trade.

Exports are responsible for nearly half of Germany’s economic output and almost a fifth of China’s.

Still, there are nagging warning signs that the resilient American economic expansion that began a decade ago is running out of steam.

When investors are confident in the economy, they demand higher bond rates, partly to offset the risk that sustained growth could produce inflation and dilute the bonds’ effective returns. For that reason, rates on long-term bonds are typically higher.

But on Wednesday, for the first time since 2007, yields on two-year Treasury notes briefly exceeded the interest rate on the benchmark 10-year note. This pattern, called an inverted yield curve, is frequently cited as a harbinger of recession, although it can take quite some time to be proved right.

Earnings growth, which has helped drive Wall Street’s remarkable gains in recent years, is also showing signs of petering out.

Second-quarter profits for companies in the S&P 500 are coming in 0.7 percent lower than a year ago, according to data from John Butters, the senior earnings analyst at FactSet. If that figure holds — and more than 90 percent of the companies in the index have reported — it will mark the second straight quarter in which profits have declined, something often referred to as an earnings recession.

The slide was most pronounced among companies with the greatest exposure to the global economy and trade. Earnings at American semiconductor manufacturers, which rely on production networks in China and generate much of their sales there, fell about 25 percent.

More troubling for investors, profits seem likely to remain lackluster for at least the rest of 2019. Stocks bounced back strongly this year, in part, on optimism that the United States and China would inch closer to a trade deal and that earnings would rebound in the second half. That hope has faded as the trade tensions have ratcheted up with no end in sight.

Although China’s economy is growing more quickly than that of many Western competitors, it has slowed measurably since the start of the trade conflict. Wednesday’s reading on Chinese industrial production was weaker than expected, with July’s growth rate at 4.8 percent, the lowest since 2002.

United States tariffs have mostly been directed at China, but the Trump administration has also imposed levies on European steel and aluminum. Mr. Trump has often threatened to impose tariffs on German cars.

A container-ship terminal in Shanghai. Optimism that the United States and China would inch closer to a trade deal has faded.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

There is evidence that the German auto industry is hurting plenty already. The German carmakers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW all earn at least a third of their revenue in China, where auto sales have been slipping after years of explosive growth. One major factor in the slide is the barrage of trade threats that have unsettled Chinese consumers, discouraging them from buying big-ticket goods.

On Wednesday, the German statistics agency said the country’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June after treading water for a year. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the contraction would extend to a second straight quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

Germany’s economic performance in the second quarter was the worst among the countries using the common European currency, the euro, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated. Even Italy, long a weak link, did slightly better than Germany — its growth in the quarter was zero.

That is a humbling experience for Germany, which has lectured other countries on how to manage their economies and scolded them for having too much debt.

Germany was among the first European countries to bounce back from the debt crisis that struck the region in 2010, and its unemployment rate, at 3.1 percent, is still the lowest in the eurozone.

When Siemens, the German industrial conglomerate, missed analysts’ expectations for quarterly profits this month, its executives noted that “geopolitical and macroeconomic risks” — including the trade war — had “led to a clear slowdown in the global economic activity and deteriorating industrial sentiment.”

China and Germany have large trade surpluses with the United States, but they are also important customers for American products. Germany bought goods and services worth $72 billion from the United States last year.

“If this continues, it will eventually mean less demand for U.S. goods,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

Closely watched surveys of activity among industrial purchasing managers suggest that manufacturing is declining in China, Japan, Germany and Britain — the largest economies after the United States.

And prices for important industrial commodities like aluminum, copper and steel have fallen, confirming deep weakness in the industrial sector and crimping the profits of the companies that produce them. ThyssenKrupp, Nippon Steel, and ArcelorMittal — the world’s largest steel producer — have all reported losses or shrinking profits in recent weeks.

A decline in manufacturing doesn’t necessarily mean the broader economy is doomed to follow. Manufacturing endured a similar slump in 2016, tied in part to a sharp drop oil prices and an investment slowdown in China, after a currency devaluation by Beijing in 2015 spooked global investors.

That industrial downturn weighed on growth, in the United States and around the world. But a full-blown recession never materialized, in part because oil prices recovered and major central banks worked to resuscitate growth.

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Stock Markets, Jolted by Economic Worry, Suffer 2nd Worst Drop of 2019

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Trade-war worries hammered financial markets again on Wednesday as data from Germany and China showed trouble for manufacturing-reliant economies, while the bond market renewed fears of an American recession.

Stocks and commodities tumbled in Europe and the United States as risk-averse investors raced to the safety of government bonds, pushing bond prices sharply higher and yields — which move in the opposite direction — to low levels not seen in years.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 2.93 percent, led by a steep drop in the energy sector. Retail shares also fell sharply after Macy’s posted lower quarterly results. Shares of large technology companies, sensitive to the outlook for the trade war, also fell. Stock benchmarks in Europe also dropped.

The drop reflected a rapid shift in sentiment just a day after a 1.5 percent gain, which had been driven by the White House decision to narrow the scope of the next round of tariffs on China to spare American consumers during the holiday shopping season.

But there is increasing evidence that the fight between the two largest economies over trade, technology and economic dominance has already done significant damage to the world economy.

Earlier Wednesday, the German government reported that the country’s economy shrank in the quarter that ended in June. The German economy, the eurozone’s largest, has been particularly vulnerable to the trade war between the United States and China because of Germany’s dependence on manufacturing and exports. A second consecutive quarter of decline would mean Germany was in a recession.

[Read more about Germany’s economy.]

In China, a variety of macroeconomic indicators published overnight showed that its economy continues to lose steam as the trade war drags on. Chinese industrial production slowed more than expected, falling to 4.8 percent in July, the lowest level since 2002. Investment growth and retail sales also slowed.

The economic updates added to the increasingly ugly conditions in the global industrial economy. Closely watched surveys of activity among industrial purchasing managers now suggest that manufacturing economies in China, Japan, Germany and Britain — the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-largest economies in the world — are all contracting.

And prices for important industrial raw materials such as aluminum, copper and steel have fallen, confirming deep weakness in the industrial sector and crimping the profits of the companies that produce them.

Major industrial firms around the world have likewise reported a consistent story of softening demand, stressed that they are taking a cautious approach to the rest of the year.

In recent weeks, signs of the global industrial slowdown have also arrived in corporate earnings reports in the United States. Second-quarter profits for companies in the S&P 500 are set to contract 0.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the data provider FactSet. If that figure holds — and more than 90 percent of the companies in the index have reported — it will mark the second straight quarter that earnings have declined.

The industrial sector of the S&P fared poorly, with earnings falling 10 percent from last year. The slide in profits was also most pronounced among those companies with the greatest exposure to the global economy and trade.

Investors were intensely attuned Wednesday to downbeat economic signals from the bond market. Yields on long-term United States Treasury securities continue to plumb lows not seen in recent years. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.58 percent, a level it last reached in late 2016. The yield on the 30-year bond fell to 2.03 percent, the lowest level on record.

[Read more about the intensifying recession warning in the bond market.]

Bond yields are typically determined by investors’ expectations for economic growth and inflation, making their recent precipitous drop worrisome in themselves. But the drop in long-term yields also briefly pushed the yield on the 10-year note below that of the two-year Treasury note, an unusual situation known as an inversion of the yield curve. Yield-curve inversions are considered one of the most reliable leading indicators of recession in the United States, having preceded every economic decline in the past 60 years.

That phenomenon, when yields on long-term bonds fall below those on short-term bonds, had already occurred with some Treasury securities this year. But the inversion between two-year and 10-year notes, which last occurred in 2007 as the American economy began to sputter into a severe recession, seemed to worry investors anew.

Signs of economic weakness hit commodities markets as well. Prices for copper, often tightly tied to the outlook for Chinese economic growth, fell more than 1 percent in New York trading. Futures prices for American crude oil fell more than 3 percent.

The tumble in crude oil prices weighed heavily on share prices of American energy companies, pushing the energy sector down more than 4 percent. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips all fell more than 3.5 percent.

Stocks of large tech firms also weighed on the markets, with Amazon dropping more than 3 percent and Apple and Microsoft more than 2.5 percent.

The recent return of market volatility has cut the gains enjoyed by investors this year. But those gains are still significant. The S&P 500 remains up more than 13 percent in 2019.

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Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout

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FRANKFURT — In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday indicated that the German economy was hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories was slowing at a pace not seen in nearly two decades.

The numbers are among the most tangible consequences of President Trump’s tariffs on global trade for China as well as Germany, which sets the tone for Europe. Mr. Trump is succeeding in inflicting pain on countries he accuses of unfair trade practices, but economists warn that the pain is likely to boomerang onto the United States.

Germany’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June, and it has been treading water for the past year, the government’s official statistics agency said. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the economy would continue to shrink in the current quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

In China, factory output in July fell to its slowest pace in 17 years, according to government data. Although the Chinese economy posted trade figures that were stronger than expected last week, the industrial output figure was another sign that China’s overall growth rate continues to slow under the weight of the trade war and the country’s debt problems.

China and Germany both have large trade surpluses with the United States, but they are also important customers for American products. Germany bought goods and services worth $72 billion from the United States last year.

“If this continues it will eventually mean less demand for U.S. goods,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

Fear of possible blowback helped prompt a sell-off on Wall Street as well as on stock markets in Europe. The main stock indexes in Frankfurt and Paris closed down more than 2 percent.

In the United States, the S&P 500 was down roughly 2.5 percent at midday. Yields on United States government bonds also fell, a signal that investors were lowering their expectations for growth. Bond yields, which drop as prices rise, have been tumbling since a recent escalation of the conflict pushed investors seeking a safe haven toward government bonds.

It is not surprising that China and Germany are stumbling under the weight of the trade pressures. China is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, just ahead of the United States. Germany is No. 3, and exports account for almost half of its gross domestic product. Both countries have been hit directly by President Trump’s tariffs, and more broadly by the disruption to the global economy that the trade conflict has caused.

Germany is also under stress from Britain’s chaotic attempts to leave the European Union, while tensions in the Persian Gulf have unnerved company executives about sales prospects in that important region. As a result, they are reluctant to invest in new buildings or factory space in Germany.

United States tariffs have mostly been directed at China, but the Trump administration has also imposed levies on European steel and aluminum. President Trump has often threatened to impose tariffs on German cars.

The data Wednesday suggested that the German auto industry is hurting plenty. Automobiles, Germany’s biggest export product, are a prime example of how the country has been caught in the trade crossfire between the United States and China.

The German carmakers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW all earn at least a third of their revenue in China, where auto sales have been slipping after years of explosive growth. A major factor in the slide is the barrage of trade threats that have unsettled Chinese consumers, discouraging them from buying big-ticket goods.

China is just one of the problems facing German automakers, which dominate the luxury car market but are trying to cope with changing demands, including stricter emissions standards, a costly shift to electric cars, and competitors like Tesla.

Because cars are Germany’s biggest export, problems in the industry reverberate through the economy. Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded the debt of the steel maker ThyssenKrupp further into junk territory, citing in part slack demand from automakers.

Germany’s economic performance was the worst of any eurozone country during the second quarter, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated. Even Italy, the economic laughingstock of the eurozone, did slightly better than Germany — its growth in the quarter was zero.

That is a humbling experience for Germany, which has long lectured other countries on how to manage their economies and scolded them for having too much debt.

Germany was among the first European countries to bounce back from the debt crisis that struck the eurozone in 2010, and its unemployment rate, at 3.1 percent, is still the lowest in the zone.

Any schadenfreude elsewhere in Europe is likely to be short-lived. German automakers and other manufacturers buy many of their components from countries like Italy, the Netherlands or Poland. Germany accounts for more than a quarter of the European Union economy. It is virtually impossible for the region to thrive when Germany is ailing.

The slumping growth will probably increase calls for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to increase spending to stimulate the economy. That will be politically tricky. Germans pride themselves on fiscal prudence and the government has recorded budget surpluses for the last five years.

Economists say the country should take advantage of record low interest rates to invest in infrastructure such as its aging rail network, in education, and in research and development. German government 10-year bonds were commanding a yield of minus 0.65 percent Wednesday, meaning investors are effectively willing to pay Berlin to keep their money safe.

The decline in economic output and the weak outlook “increasingly add to the economic case for a dose of fiscal stimulus,” Oliver Rakau, chief German economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report Wednesday. But, he said, “the political costs of such a U-turn seem large absent more economic and political pain.”

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Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout

Westlake Legal Group 14germanecon1-promo-facebookJumbo-v3 Germany Nears Recession and Chinese Factories Slow in Trade War Fallout United States Trump, Donald J Merkel, Angela International Trade and World Market Gross Domestic Product Germany China

FRANKFURT — In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday indicated that the German economy was hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories was slowing at a pace not seen in nearly two decades.

The numbers are among the most tangible consequences of President Trump’s tariffs on global trade for China as well as Germany, which sets the tone for Europe. Mr. Trump is succeeding in inflicting pain on countries he accuses of unfair trade practices, but economists warn that the pain is likely to boomerang onto the United States.

Germany’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June, and it has been treading water for the past year, the government’s official statistics agency said. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the economy would continue to shrink in the current quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

In China, factory output in July fell to its slowest pace in 17 years, according to government data. Although the Chinese economy posted trade figures that were stronger than expected last week, the industrial output figure was another sign that China’s overall growth rate continues to slow under the weight of the trade war and the country’s debt problems.

China and Germany both have large trade surpluses with the United States, but they are also important customers for American products. Germany bought goods and services worth $72 billion from the United States last year.

“If this continues it will eventually mean less demand for U.S. goods,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany.

Fear of possible blowback helped prompt a sell-off on Wall Street as well as on stock markets in Europe. The main stock indexes in Frankfurt and Paris closed down more than 2 percent.

In the United States, the S&P 500 was down roughly 2.5 percent at midday. Yields on United States government bonds also fell, a signal that investors were lowering their expectations for growth. Bond yields, which drop as prices rise, have been tumbling since a recent escalation of the conflict pushed investors seeking a safe haven toward government bonds.

It is not surprising that China and Germany are stumbling under the weight of the trade pressures. China is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, just ahead of the United States. Germany is No. 3, and exports account for almost half of its gross domestic product. Both countries have been hit directly by President Trump’s tariffs, and more broadly by the disruption to the global economy that the trade conflict has caused.

Germany is also under stress from Britain’s chaotic attempts to leave the European Union, while tensions in the Persian Gulf have unnerved company executives about sales prospects in that important region. As a result, they are reluctant to invest in new buildings or factory space in Germany.

United States tariffs have mostly been directed at China, but the Trump administration has also imposed levies on European steel and aluminum. President Trump has often threatened to impose tariffs on German cars.

The data Wednesday suggested that the German auto industry is hurting plenty. Automobiles, Germany’s biggest export product, are a prime example of how the country has been caught in the trade crossfire between the United States and China.

The German carmakers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW all earn at least a third of their revenue in China, where auto sales have been slipping after years of explosive growth. A major factor in the slide is the barrage of trade threats that have unsettled Chinese consumers, discouraging them from buying big-ticket goods.

China is just one of the problems facing German automakers, which dominate the luxury car market but are trying to cope with changing demands, including stricter emissions standards, a costly shift to electric cars, and competitors like Tesla.

Because cars are Germany’s biggest export, problems in the industry reverberate through the economy. Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded the debt of the steel maker ThyssenKrupp further into junk territory, citing in part slack demand from automakers.

Germany’s economic performance was the worst of any eurozone country during the second quarter, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated. Even Italy, the economic laughingstock of the eurozone, did slightly better than Germany — its growth in the quarter was zero.

That is a humbling experience for Germany, which has long lectured other countries on how to manage their economies and scolded them for having too much debt.

Germany was among the first European countries to bounce back from the debt crisis that struck the eurozone in 2010, and its unemployment rate, at 3.1 percent, is still the lowest in the zone.

Any schadenfreude elsewhere in Europe is likely to be short-lived. German automakers and other manufacturers buy many of their components from countries like Italy, the Netherlands or Poland. Germany accounts for more than a quarter of the European Union economy. It is virtually impossible for the region to thrive when Germany is ailing.

The slumping growth will probably increase calls for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to increase spending to stimulate the economy. That will be politically tricky. Germans pride themselves on fiscal prudence and the government has recorded budget surpluses for the last five years.

Economists say the country should take advantage of record low interest rates to invest in infrastructure such as its aging rail network, in education, and in research and development. German government 10-year bonds were commanding a yield of minus 0.65 percent Wednesday, meaning investors are effectively willing to pay Berlin to keep their money safe.

The decline in economic output and the weak outlook “increasingly add to the economic case for a dose of fiscal stimulus,” Oliver Rakau, chief German economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report Wednesday. But, he said, “the political costs of such a U-turn seem large absent more economic and political pain.”

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